Charts· RB / WR / TE touchdown regression

Touchdowns over expected (2026, Weeks 1–9), qualified RB/WR/TE

105 players, ranked by TDs over expected (season) through Week 9 of 2026. Top: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+4.1), Christian Watson (+3.3) and Isaiah Likely (+3.3). Bottom: Michael Wilson (-5.4), Rome Odunze (-2.4) and Chase Brown (-2.3).

Expected TDs = every carry and target priced by where it happened

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105players ranked

1–9weeks of 2026

RB/WR/TEeach at his position’s minimum

+4.1#1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba

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105 players · 4888 characters

RB / WR / TE TOUCHDOWN REGRESSION

Touchdowns over expected (2026, Weeks 1–9), qualified RB/WR/TE

1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) +4.1 (9 TD, 4.9 exp)
2. Christian Watson (GB) +3.3 (7 TD, 3.7 exp)
3. Isaiah Likely (NYG) +3.3 (6 TD, 2.8 exp)
4. Tee Higgins (CIN) +3.2 (6 TD, 2.8 exp)
5. Bhayshul Tuten (JAX) +2.9 (7 TD, 4.1 exp)
6. Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) +2.7 (7 TD, 4.3 exp)
7. Blake Corum (LAR) +2.7 (5 TD, 2.3 exp)
8. Stefon Diggs (WAS) +2.6 (5 TD, 2.4 exp)
9. Pat Freiermuth (PIT) +2.5 (5 TD, 2.5 exp)
10. Bucky Irving (TB) +2.5 (8 TD, 5.5 exp)
11. Darren Waller (CAR) +2.4 (4 TD, 1.6 exp)
12. Jake Ferguson (DAL) +2.1 (4 TD, 1.9 exp)
13. Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) +2.0 (11 TD, 9.0 exp)
14. Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE) +2.0 (4 TD, 2.0 exp)
15. Kyle Pitts (ATL) +2.0 (4 TD, 2.0 exp)
16. James Cook (BUF) +1.9 (8 TD, 6.1 exp)
17. Chuba Hubbard (CAR) +1.9 (7 TD, 5.1 exp)
18. Jameson Williams (DET) +1.8 (5 TD, 3.2 exp)
19. DeMario Douglas (NE) +1.8 (4 TD, 2.2 exp)
20. Tre Tucker (LV) +1.8 (4 TD, 2.2 exp)
21. Parker Washington (JAX) +1.8 (5 TD, 3.2 exp)
22. Tommy Tremble (CAR) +1.8 (3 TD, 1.3 exp)
23. Justin Jefferson (MIN) +1.7 (4 TD, 2.3 exp)
24. Brock Bowers (LV) +1.7 (6 TD, 4.3 exp)
25. George Kittle (SF) +1.6 (5 TD, 3.4 exp)
26. Christian McCaffrey (SF) +1.5 (10 TD, 8.5 exp)
27. Kenneth Walker III (KC) +1.5 (11 TD, 9.5 exp)
28. Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) +1.5 (4 TD, 2.5 exp)
29. Zay Flowers (BAL) +1.5 (3 TD, 1.5 exp)
30. Dallas Goedert (PHI) +1.3 (2 TD, 0.7 exp)
31. Juwan Johnson (NO) +1.3 (4 TD, 2.7 exp)
32. Travis Kelce (KC) +1.2 (3 TD, 1.8 exp)
33. Puka Nacua (LAR) +1.2 (5 TD, 3.8 exp)
34. Tyler Warren (IND) +1.2 (3 TD, 1.8 exp)
35. Davante Adams (LAR) +1.1 (4 TD, 2.9 exp)
36. Jalen Coker (CAR) +1.0 (3 TD, 2.0 exp)
37. CeeDee Lamb (DAL) +0.9 (7 TD, 6.0 exp)
38. Darnell Washington (PIT) +0.9 (3 TD, 2.1 exp)
39. Bijan Robinson (ATL) +0.8 (6 TD, 5.2 exp)
40. Luther Burden III (CHI) +0.8 (4 TD, 3.2 exp)
41. T.J. Hockenson (MIN) +0.8 (3 TD, 2.2 exp)
42. Wan'Dale Robinson (TEN) +0.8 (3 TD, 2.2 exp)
43. Kenyon Sadiq (NYJ) +0.8 (2 TD, 1.3 exp)
44. Dalton Kincaid (BUF) +0.7 (2 TD, 1.3 exp)
45. Kyren Williams (LAR) +0.6 (7 TD, 6.4 exp)
46. Jonathan Taylor (IND) +0.5 (8 TD, 7.5 exp)
47. Emeka Egbuka (TB) +0.5 (3 TD, 2.5 exp)
48. Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) +0.5 (5 TD, 4.5 exp)
49. Jaylen Warren (PIT) +0.4 (3 TD, 2.6 exp)
50. Derrick Henry (BAL) +0.4 (9 TD, 8.6 exp)
51. Hunter Henry (NE) +0.4 (2 TD, 1.6 exp)
52. Aaron Jones (MIN) +0.3 (2 TD, 1.7 exp)
53. Garrett Wilson (NYJ) +0.1 (3 TD, 2.9 exp)
54. D'Andre Swift (CHI) +0.1 (10 TD, 9.9 exp)
55. Tyler Higbee (LAR) +0.1 (1 TD, 0.9 exp)
56. Brenton Strange (JAX) +0.1 (1 TD, 0.9 exp)
57. Devaughn Vele (NO) +0.1 (3 TD, 2.9 exp)
58. Tucker Kraft (GB) +0.0 (3 TD, 3.0 exp)
59. Omarion Hampton (LAC) +0.0 (3 TD, 3.0 exp)
60. Tony Pollard (TEN) +0.0 (6 TD, 6.0 exp)
61. Cam Skattebo (NYG) +0.0 (2 TD, 2.0 exp)
62. Braelon Allen (NYJ) 0.0 (3 TD, 3.0 exp)
63. Makai Lemon (PHI) -0.0 (1 TD, 1.0 exp)
64. Evan Engram (DEN) -0.1 (1 TD, 1.1 exp)
65. Jaylen Waddle (DEN) -0.1 (2 TD, 2.1 exp)
66. KC Concepcion (CLE) -0.2 (1 TD, 1.2 exp)
67. Sam LaPorta (DET) -0.3 (3 TD, 3.3 exp)
68. Michael Mayer (LV) -0.3 (1 TD, 1.3 exp)
69. AJ Barner (SEA) -0.4 (3 TD, 3.4 exp)
70. Denzel Boston (CLE) -0.5 (3 TD, 3.5 exp)
71. Trey McBride (ARI) -0.5 (5 TD, 5.5 exp)
72. Oronde Gadsden II (LAC) -0.5 (1 TD, 1.5 exp)
73. Jeremiyah Love (ARI) -0.5 (2 TD, 2.5 exp)
74. Tyler Allgeier (ARI) -0.6 (3 TD, 3.6 exp)
75. Javonte Williams (DAL) -0.6 (10 TD, 10.6 exp)
76. Emanuel Wilson (SEA) -0.6 (4 TD, 4.6 exp)
77. Xavier Hutchinson (HOU) -0.7 (2 TD, 2.7 exp)
78. Woody Marks (HOU) -0.7 (2 TD, 2.7 exp)
79. Matthew Golden (GB) -0.7 (5 TD, 5.7 exp)
80. Keenan Allen (SF) -0.7 (1 TD, 1.7 exp)
81. Drake London (ATL) -0.8 (1 TD, 1.8 exp)
82. George Pickens (DAL) -0.8 (2 TD, 2.8 exp)
83. Greg Dulcich (MIA) -0.8 (0 TD, 0.8 exp)
84. Chig Okonkwo (WAS) -0.8 (0 TD, 0.8 exp)
85. Carnell Tate (TEN) -0.8 (1 TD, 1.9 exp)
86. Mark Andrews (BAL) -0.9 (1 TD, 1.9 exp)
87. Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) -0.9 (3 TD, 3.9 exp)
88. Colston Loveland (CHI) -1.0 (2 TD, 3.0 exp)
89. Courtland Sutton (DEN) -1.0 (2 TD, 3.0 exp)
90. Ryan Flournoy (DAL) -1.0 (2 TD, 3.0 exp)
91. Malik Washington (MIA) -1.1 (1 TD, 2.1 exp)
92. Ollie Gordon II (MIA) -1.2 (4 TD, 5.2 exp)
93. Dalton Schultz (HOU) -1.2 (0 TD, 1.2 exp)
94. Josh Downs (KC) -1.2 (1 TD, 2.2 exp)
95. J.K. Dobbins (DEN) -1.3 (3 TD, 4.3 exp)
96. Xavier Worthy (KC) -1.4 (1 TD, 2.4 exp)
97. Chris Olave (NO) -1.4 (2 TD, 3.4 exp)
98. Malik Nabers (NYG) -1.5 (2 TD, 3.5 exp)
99. Cade Otton (TB) -1.6 (0 TD, 1.6 exp)
100. Quinshon Judkins (CLE) -1.9 (3 TD, 4.9 exp)
101. Ashton Jeanty (LV) -1.9 (4 TD, 5.9 exp)
102. DK Metcalf (PIT) -2.1 (1 TD, 3.1 exp)
103. Chase Brown (CIN) -2.3 (1 TD, 3.3 exp)
104. Rome Odunze (CHI) -2.4 (1 TD, 3.4 exp)
105. Michael Wilson (ARI) -5.4 (2 TD, 7.4 exp)

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The whole ranking, 105 players: the chart shows the top and the bottom of it.

#	Player	Team	TDs over expected (season)
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba9 TD, 4.9 exp	SEA	+4.1
2	Christian Watson7 TD, 3.7 exp	GB	+3.3
3	Isaiah Likely6 TD, 2.8 exp	NYG	+3.3
4	Tee Higgins6 TD, 2.8 exp	CIN	+3.2
5	Bhayshul Tuten7 TD, 4.1 exp	JAX	+2.9
6	Ja'Marr Chase7 TD, 4.3 exp	CIN	+2.7
7	Blake Corum5 TD, 2.3 exp	LAR	+2.7
8	Stefon Diggs5 TD, 2.4 exp	WAS	+2.6
9	Pat Freiermuth5 TD, 2.5 exp	PIT	+2.5
10	Bucky Irving8 TD, 5.5 exp	TB	+2.5
11	Darren Waller4 TD, 1.6 exp	CAR	+2.4
12	Jake Ferguson4 TD, 1.9 exp	DAL	+2.1
13	Jahmyr Gibbs11 TD, 9.0 exp	DET	+2.0
14	Harold Fannin Jr.4 TD, 2.0 exp	CLE	+2.0
15	Kyle Pitts4 TD, 2.0 exp	ATL	+2.0
16	James Cook8 TD, 6.1 exp	BUF	+1.9
17	Chuba Hubbard7 TD, 5.1 exp	CAR	+1.9
18	Jameson Williams5 TD, 3.2 exp	DET	+1.8
19	DeMario Douglas4 TD, 2.2 exp	NE	+1.8
20	Tre Tucker4 TD, 2.2 exp	LV	+1.8
21	Parker Washington5 TD, 3.2 exp	JAX	+1.8
22	Tommy Tremble3 TD, 1.3 exp	CAR	+1.8
23	Justin Jefferson4 TD, 2.3 exp	MIN	+1.7
24	Brock Bowers6 TD, 4.3 exp	LV	+1.7
25	George Kittle5 TD, 3.4 exp	SF	+1.6
26	Christian McCaffrey10 TD, 8.5 exp	SF	+1.5
27	Kenneth Walker III11 TD, 9.5 exp	KC	+1.5
28	Rhamondre Stevenson4 TD, 2.5 exp	NE	+1.5
29	Zay Flowers3 TD, 1.5 exp	BAL	+1.5
30	Dallas Goedert2 TD, 0.7 exp	PHI	+1.3
31	Juwan Johnson4 TD, 2.7 exp	NO	+1.3
32	Travis Kelce3 TD, 1.8 exp	KC	+1.2
33	Puka Nacua5 TD, 3.8 exp	LAR	+1.2
34	Tyler Warren3 TD, 1.8 exp	IND	+1.2
35	Davante Adams4 TD, 2.9 exp	LAR	+1.1
36	Jalen Coker3 TD, 2.0 exp	CAR	+1.0
37	CeeDee Lamb7 TD, 6.0 exp	DAL	+0.9
38	Darnell Washington3 TD, 2.1 exp	PIT	+0.9
39	Bijan Robinson6 TD, 5.2 exp	ATL	+0.8
40	Luther Burden III4 TD, 3.2 exp	CHI	+0.8
41	T.J. Hockenson3 TD, 2.2 exp	MIN	+0.8
42	Wan'Dale Robinson3 TD, 2.2 exp	TEN	+0.8
43	Kenyon Sadiq2 TD, 1.3 exp	NYJ	+0.8
44	Dalton Kincaid2 TD, 1.3 exp	BUF	+0.7
45	Kyren Williams7 TD, 6.4 exp	LAR	+0.6
46	Jonathan Taylor8 TD, 7.5 exp	IND	+0.5
47	Emeka Egbuka3 TD, 2.5 exp	TB	+0.5
48	Amon-Ra St. Brown5 TD, 4.5 exp	DET	+0.5
49	Jaylen Warren3 TD, 2.6 exp	PIT	+0.4
50	Derrick Henry9 TD, 8.6 exp	BAL	+0.4
51	Hunter Henry2 TD, 1.6 exp	NE	+0.4
52	Aaron Jones2 TD, 1.7 exp	MIN	+0.3
53	Garrett Wilson3 TD, 2.9 exp	NYJ	+0.1
54	D'Andre Swift10 TD, 9.9 exp	CHI	+0.1
55	Tyler Higbee1 TD, 0.9 exp	LAR	+0.1
56	Brenton Strange1 TD, 0.9 exp	JAX	+0.1
57	Devaughn Vele3 TD, 2.9 exp	NO	+0.1
58	Tucker Kraft3 TD, 3.0 exp	GB	+0.0
59	Omarion Hampton3 TD, 3.0 exp	LAC	+0.0
60	Tony Pollard6 TD, 6.0 exp	TEN	+0.0
61	Cam Skattebo2 TD, 2.0 exp	NYG	+0.0
62	Braelon Allen3 TD, 3.0 exp	NYJ	0.0
63	Makai Lemon1 TD, 1.0 exp	PHI	-0.0
64	Evan Engram1 TD, 1.1 exp	DEN	-0.1
65	Jaylen Waddle2 TD, 2.1 exp	DEN	-0.1
66	KC Concepcion1 TD, 1.2 exp	CLE	-0.2
67	Sam LaPorta3 TD, 3.3 exp	DET	-0.3
68	Michael Mayer1 TD, 1.3 exp	LV	-0.3
69	AJ Barner3 TD, 3.4 exp	SEA	-0.4
70	Denzel Boston3 TD, 3.5 exp	CLE	-0.5
71	Trey McBride5 TD, 5.5 exp	ARI	-0.5
72	Oronde Gadsden II1 TD, 1.5 exp	LAC	-0.5
73	Jeremiyah Love2 TD, 2.5 exp	ARI	-0.5
74	Tyler Allgeier3 TD, 3.6 exp	ARI	-0.6
75	Javonte Williams10 TD, 10.6 exp	DAL	-0.6
76	Emanuel Wilson4 TD, 4.6 exp	SEA	-0.6
77	Xavier Hutchinson2 TD, 2.7 exp	HOU	-0.7
78	Woody Marks2 TD, 2.7 exp	HOU	-0.7
79	Matthew Golden5 TD, 5.7 exp	GB	-0.7
80	Keenan Allen1 TD, 1.7 exp	SF	-0.7
81	Drake London1 TD, 1.8 exp	ATL	-0.8
82	George Pickens2 TD, 2.8 exp	DAL	-0.8
83	Greg Dulcich0 TD, 0.8 exp	MIA	-0.8
84	Chig Okonkwo0 TD, 0.8 exp	WAS	-0.8
85	Carnell Tate1 TD, 1.9 exp	TEN	-0.8
86	Mark Andrews1 TD, 1.9 exp	BAL	-0.9
87	Tetairoa McMillan3 TD, 3.9 exp	CAR	-0.9
88	Colston Loveland2 TD, 3.0 exp	CHI	-1.0
89	Courtland Sutton2 TD, 3.0 exp	DEN	-1.0
90	Ryan Flournoy2 TD, 3.0 exp	DAL	-1.0
91	Malik Washington1 TD, 2.1 exp	MIA	-1.1
92	Ollie Gordon II4 TD, 5.2 exp	MIA	-1.2
93	Dalton Schultz0 TD, 1.2 exp	HOU	-1.2
94	Josh Downs1 TD, 2.2 exp	KC	-1.2
95	J.K. Dobbins3 TD, 4.3 exp	DEN	-1.3
96	Xavier Worthy1 TD, 2.4 exp	KC	-1.4
97	Chris Olave2 TD, 3.4 exp	NO	-1.4
98	Malik Nabers2 TD, 3.5 exp	NYG	-1.5
99	Cade Otton0 TD, 1.6 exp	TB	-1.6
100	Quinshon Judkins3 TD, 4.9 exp	CLE	-1.9
101	Ashton Jeanty4 TD, 5.9 exp	LV	-1.9
102	DK Metcalf1 TD, 3.1 exp	PIT	-2.1
103	Chase Brown1 TD, 3.3 exp	CIN	-2.3
104	Rome Odunze1 TD, 3.4 exp	CHI	-2.4
105	Michael Wilson2 TD, 7.4 exp	ARI	-5.4

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Minimums scale with the season (QBs 15 attempts a week, RBs 8 carries, WRs 5 targets, TEs 3). Expected points price every carry and target by where it happened. Built from the same data as the Charts gallery; every chart saves as a 1080 × 1350 post.