Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 15.92 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 51.6, usage worth 14.
33 years old · 12 seasons of experience · 2014 draft class
| SLEEPER | 50.7 |
| ESPN | 47.6 |
| YAHOO | 50.3 |
| UNDERDOG | 51.6 |
| CBS | 57.8 |
| FFA | 53 |
| Goes around | Round 5, pick 4 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR22 |
| Bye week | 11 |
| ADP standard deviation | 4.4 picks |
Our board has him at 204.9 points, 12.5 per game — 61.1 catches, 790 yards, 10.8 TDs. That is WR3, 53 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 9.8 points per game to a ceiling of 16.9, with the median at 12.5. Boom rate 35%, bust rate 22%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 51.6 on consensus and our board has him 53. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
Solid mid-round WR for touchdowns - fine where he's going if you want scoring over McLaurin's profile. Take the WR value in the 5/6 pocket rather than reaching.
buy · medium conviction · 2026-06-14Los Angeles Rams returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Matthew Stafford at quarterback, Sean McVay as head coach, Nate Scheelhaase calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 26.5 rushes.
In: Ty Simpson (qb2), Jordan Whittington (wr3), Konata Mumpfield (wr4), CJ Daniels (wr5), Tyler Scott (wr7), Jarquez Hunter (rb4), Max Klare (te2). Out: Tutu Atwell (wr4), Davis Allen (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 19.1%, with a bear case of 12.9% and a bull case of 21.2% and a full range of 12.9% to 21.8%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Puka Nacua | 26.9% |
| Davante Adams ← | 19.1% |
| Kyren Williams | 8.7% |
| Colby Parkinson | 8.5% |
| Max Klare | 8.3% |
| Jordan Whittington | 6.4% |
What the offense looks like: The highest producers in this offense will be incredibly valuable. Ty Simpson should maintain high value in dynasty at least until he starts in 2028 after Stafford leaves.
Key additions: Ty Simpson Drafted 13th overall. TE Max Klare 2nd round. OT Keagen Trost 3rd round. CJ Daniels WR 6th round.
Key departures: RT Rob Havenstein retired.
Notes: Rams draft Ty Simpson in the 1st round but Stafford is rumored to be signing 2 year extension. Simpson likely to sit until 2028 season. Best for him for development. Stafford will play at MVP level until retires more than likely. Puka has had off field trouble and spent time in Rehab, but should be ready by week 1. Rams draft TE Max Klare early & will likely be TE1 ahead of Parkinson but may not be. RB room is confusing, Corum has potential to overtake Kyren Williams in 2026 season. Both backs hold high value if the other is hurt. Adams only has 1 or 2 more years in him.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Matthew Stafford returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Nate Scheelhaase — pass rate and tempo may shift.
25 historical comps for WRs age ~33, prior share 27.3%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 18.1%, p25-p75 [0.0%, 24.3%], tails [0.0%, 26.1%]. Closest comps: Mike Evans 2024→2025 (TB: 24.8%→24.3%); Michael Pittman 2023→2024 (IND: 28.4%→25.2%); Mike Evans 2023→2024 (TB: 22.3%→26.1%).
self-anchored 58% to own 27.3% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 18.1%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: LAR rates 27 against a league average of 23, 4.1 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 | Puka Nacua | +9 |
| 2024 | 3 | Alex Bachman | +2 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -6.8% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 2024 | 18.7 | 65% | -6.6% |
| Terry McLaurin | 2024 | 15.8 | 65% | -16.4% |
| Mike Evans | 2024 | 17.2 | 61% | -16.5% |
| Keenan Allen | 2024 | 12.3 | 60% | -7% |
| A.J. Brown | 2024 | 16.7 | 59% | -10.3% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 0 gained value, 5 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Height | 6′1″ |
| Weight | 212 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.56s |
| Vertical | 39.5″ |
| Broad jump | 123″ |
| 3-cone | 6.82s |
| Shuttle | 4.3s |
| Career PPR per game | 19.3 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 24.3% |
| Bust rate | 20.3% |
| Games missed per season | 1 |
| Injury history | Hamstring, Knee |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.01 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 7 against JAX — 26.5 PPR on 8 targets and a 24.2% target share, in a game that finished 35-7. His worst was Week 14 against ARI at 6.9, on 6 targets, final score 45-17. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.3; in the 7 decided by more, 18.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 14 points per game. He scored 15.92, 8.8% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 14-9 | 9.1 | 4 | 8 | 51 | 0 | 28.6% | 90% |
| 2 | TEN | 33-19 | 22.6 | 6 | 13 | 106 | 1 | 40.6% | 80% |
| 3 | PHI | 26-33 | 14.6 | 3 | 8 | 56 | 1 | 24.2% | 86% |
| 4 | IND | 27-20 | 15.6 | 4 | 6 | 56 | 1 | 15% | 83% |
| 5 | SF | 23-26 | 13.8 | 5 | 11 | 88 | 0 | 23.9% | 85% |
| 6 | BAL | 17-3 | 7.9 | 4 | 9 | 39 | 0 | 34.6% | 79% |
| 7 | JAX | 35-7 | 26.5 | 5 | 8 | 35 | 3 | 24.2% | 59% |
| 9 | NO | 34-10 | 23 | 5 | 7 | 60 | 2 | 22.6% | 60% |
| 10 | SF | 42-26 | 19.7 | 6 | 8 | 77 | 1 | 23.5% | 51% |
| 11 | SEA | 21-19 | 7.1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 29.6% | 86% |
| 12 | TB | 34-7 | 23.2 | 5 | 8 | 62 | 2 | 23.5% | 77% |
| 13 | CAR | 28-31 | 21.8 | 4 | 5 | 58 | 2 | 18.5% | 75% |
| 14 | ARI | 45-17 | 6.9 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 | 19.4% | 43% |
| 15 | DET | 41-34 | 11.1 | 4 | 9 | 71 | 0 | 23.7% | 46% |
| Receptions | 60 |
| Targets | 114 |
| Receiving yards | 789 |
| Touchdowns | 14 |
| Points per game | 15.92 |
| Yards per target | 6.92 |
| Catch rate | 52.63% |
| Snap share | 71.43% |
| Target share | 25.14% |
| Air-yards share | 37.66% |
| WOPR | 0.641 |
| RACR | 0.564 |
| Average depth of target | 12.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.2 |
| Total YAC | 117 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 110.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.93 |
| Red-zone targets | 34 |
| Red-zone target share | 27% |
| End-zone target share | 51.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 12.12 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 13 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.88 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 8 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 39 of 44 |
| Target share | 13 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 9 of 44 |
The offense threw it 597 times. He took 19.62% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Puka Nacua | 28.57% |
| Davante Adams ← | 19.62% |
| Colby Parkinson | 9.64% |
| Kyren Williams | 8.61% |
| Tyler Higbee | 6.2% |
| Davis Allen | 5.68% |
4 of his 14 games were blowouts, 35.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 19.9 in those and 13.3 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 15 against JAX — 42.8 PPR on 12 targets and a 42.9% target share, in a game that finished 32-25. His worst was Week 7 against PIT at 6, on 9 targets, final score 15-37. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 22.4; in the 7 decided by more, 12. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 17.8 points per game. He scored 17.24, 3.4% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 8.14 expected, a gap of -2.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 10-22 | 10.9 | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 | 18.8% | 97% |
| 2 | BAL | 26-23 | 26 | 9 | 12 | 110 | 1 | 33.3% | 94% |
| 3 | CAR | 22-36 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 0 | 23.1% | 95% |
| 7 | PIT | 15-37 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 23.1% | 96% |
| 8 | NE | 22-25 | 9.4 | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 24% | 94% |
| 9 | HOU | 21-13 | 22.1 | 7 | 11 | 91 | 1 | 34.4% | 78% |
| 10 | ARI | 6-31 | 9.1 | 6 | 13 | 31 | 0 | 39.4% | 97% |
| 11 | IND | 27-28 | 13.2 | 6 | 7 | 72 | 0 | 24.1% | 94% |
| 13 | SEA | 21-26 | 17.6 | 5 | 12 | 66 | 1 | 31.6% | 97% |
| 14 | MIA | 26-32 | 25.9 | 9 | 11 | 109 | 1 | 28.2% | 85% |
| 15 | JAX | 32-25 | 42.8 | 9 | 12 | 198 | 2 | 42.9% | 93% |
| 16 | LA | 9-19 | 19.8 | 7 | 13 | 68 | 1 | 31% | 97% |
| 17 | BUF | 14-40 | 9.7 | 5 | 8 | 47 | 0 | 25.8% | 76% |
| 18 | MIA | 32-20 | 20.8 | 6 | 12 | 88 | 1 | 34.3% | 92% |
| Receptions | 85 |
| Targets | 141 |
| Receiving yards | 1,063 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 17.24 |
| Yards per target | 7.54 |
| Catch rate | 60.28% |
| Snap share | 91.79% |
| Target share | 29.57% |
| Air-yards share | 34.98% |
| WOPR | 0.688 |
| RACR | 1.237 |
| Average depth of target | 7.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.4 |
| Total YAC | 428 |
| Broken tackles | 7 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 95.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.48 |
| Red-zone targets | 26 |
| Red-zone target share | 28.9% |
| End-zone target share | 37.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 8.14 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | -2.14 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 9 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 36 of 51 |
| Target share | 5 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 14 of 51 |
The offense threw it 634 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Brock Bowers | 25.89% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 21.83% |
| Tre Tucker | 13.71% |
| Alexander Mattison | 8.12% |
| Ameer Abdullah | 7.95% |
| Michael Mayer | 5.41% |
He caught passes from 4 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 7 | 60 | 13.66 | 7.6 | 25.83% |
| Aidan O'Connell | 5 | 56 | 18.76 | 6.75 | 30.18% |
| unknown | 1 | 13 | 9.1 | 2.38 | 39.4% |
| Desmond Ridder | 1 | 12 | 42.8 | 16.5 | 42.9% |
3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 10.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.27 in those and 22.43 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 3 against PIT — 42.2 PPR on 20 targets and a 45.5% target share, in a game that finished 18-23. His worst was Week 16 against KC at 1.4, on 6 targets, final score 20-14. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.1; in the 7 decided by more, 13.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 17.7 points per game. He scored 15.61, 11.7% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 7.53 expected, a gap of -1.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 17-16 | 12.6 | 6 | 9 | 66 | 0 | 34.6% | 90% |
| 2 | BUF | 10-38 | 20.4 | 6 | 8 | 84 | 1 | 34.8% | 93% |
| 3 | PIT | 18-23 | 42.2 | 13 | 20 | 172 | 2 | 45.5% | 97% |
| 4 | LAC | 17-24 | 15.5 | 8 | 13 | 75 | 0 | 34.2% | 86% |
| 5 | GB | 17-13 | 8.5 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 13.8% | 94% |
| 6 | NE | 21-17 | 4.9 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 16.1% | 91% |
| 7 | CHI | 12-30 | 12.7 | 7 | 12 | 57 | 0 | 26.7% | 75% |
| 8 | DET | 14-26 | 2.1 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 33.3% | 96% |
| 9 | NYG | 30-6 | 7.4 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 29.2% | 88% |
| 10 | NYJ | 16-12 | 14.6 | 6 | 13 | 86 | 0 | 52% | 97% |
| 11 | MIA | 13-20 | 21.2 | 7 | 13 | 82 | 1 | 34.2% | 98% |
| 12 | KC | 17-31 | 12.3 | 5 | 7 | 73 | 0 | 21.9% | 100% |
| 14 | MIN | 0-3 | 12.3 | 7 | 10 | 53 | 0 | 34.5% | 98% |
| 15 | LAC | 63-21 | 24.1 | 8 | 12 | 101 | 1 | 35.3% | 81% |
| 16 | KC | 20-14 | 1.4 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 31.6% | 91% |
| 17 | IND | 20-23 | 37.6 | 13 | 21 | 126 | 2 | 45.7% | 97% |
| 18 | DEN | 27-14 | 15.6 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 1 | 29.6% | 94% |
| Receptions | 103 |
| Targets | 175 |
| Receiving yards | 1,144 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 15.61 |
| Yards per target | 6.54 |
| Catch rate | 58.86% |
| Snap share | 92.12% |
| Target share | 32.53% |
| Air-yards share | 44.01% |
| WOPR | 0.796 |
| RACR | 0.832 |
| Average depth of target | 10.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.8 |
| Total YAC | 336 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 79.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.79 |
| Red-zone targets | 30 |
| Red-zone target share | 38.5% |
| End-zone target share | 47.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 7.53 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.53 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 15 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 46 of 51 |
| Target share | 2 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 1 of 51 |
The offense threw it 557 times. He took 32.96% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Davante Adams ← | 32.96% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 19.96% |
| Josh Jacobs | 10.17% |
| Michael Mayer | 7.53% |
| Hunter Renfrow | 6.97% |
| Tre Tucker | 6.4% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 10 | 110 | 16.2 | 6.18 | 34.82% |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 6 | 53 | 15.12 | 7.68 | 29.68% |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | 12 | 12.7 | 4.75 | 26.7% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 24.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.15 in those and 17.08 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 13 against LAC — 37.7 PPR on 12 targets and a 44.4% target share, in a game that finished 27-20. His worst was Week 8 against NO at 1.2, on 5 targets, final score 0-24. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 13 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 21.9; in the 4 decided by more, 12.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 18.1 points per game. He scored 19.74, 9.1% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 6.08 expected, a gap of -2.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 19-24 | 30.1 | 10 | 17 | 141 | 1 | 48.6% | 95% |
| 2 | ARI | 23-29 | 9.2 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 17.9% | 97% |
| 3 | TEN | 22-24 | 14.2 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 1 | 24.4% | 100% |
| 4 | DEN | 32-23 | 19.5 | 9 | 13 | 101 | 0 | 43.3% | 95% |
| 5 | KC | 29-30 | 27.4 | 3 | 7 | 124 | 2 | 25.9% | 100% |
| 7 | HOU | 38-20 | 17.5 | 8 | 9 | 95 | 0 | 34.6% | 96% |
| 8 | NO | 0-24 | 1.2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12.8% | 72% |
| 9 | JAX | 20-27 | 36.6 | 10 | 17 | 146 | 2 | 47.2% | 95% |
| 10 | IND | 20-25 | 27.6 | 9 | 14 | 126 | 1 | 36.8% | 93% |
| 11 | DEN | 22-16 | 33.1 | 7 | 13 | 141 | 2 | 35.1% | 98% |
| 12 | SEA | 40-34 | 14.4 | 7 | 11 | 74 | 0 | 30.6% | 100% |
| 13 | LAC | 27-20 | 37.7 | 8 | 12 | 177 | 2 | 44.4% | 97% |
| 14 | LA | 16-17 | 10.1 | 3 | 7 | 71 | 0 | 36.8% | 97% |
| 15 | NE | 30-24 | 6.8 | 4 | 9 | 28 | 0 | 28.1% | 99% |
| 16 | PIT | 10-13 | 3.5 | 2 | 9 | 15 | 0 | 30% | 96% |
| 17 | SF | 34-37 | 34.3 | 7 | 11 | 153 | 2 | 34.4% | 89% |
| 18 | KC | 13-31 | 12.3 | 5 | 9 | 73 | 0 | 26.5% | 90% |
| Receptions | 100 |
| Targets | 180 |
| Receiving yards | 1,516 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | -1 |
| Touchdowns | 14 |
| Points per game | 19.74 |
| Yards per target | 8.42 |
| Catch rate | 55.56% |
| Yards per carry | -0.33 |
| Snap share | 94.65% |
| Target share | 32.79% |
| Air-yards share | 40.98% |
| WOPR | 0.779 |
| RACR | 0.659 |
| Average depth of target | 11.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.2 |
| Total YAC | 493 |
| Broken tackles | 9 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 95.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.23 |
| Red-zone targets | 22 |
| Red-zone target share | 31% |
| End-zone target share | 32.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 6.08 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | -2.08 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 6 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 24 of 51 |
| Target share | 1 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 2 of 51 |
The offense threw it 586 times. He took 32.26% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Davante Adams ← | 32.26% |
| Mack Hollins | 16.85% |
| Josh Jacobs | 11.47% |
| Foster Moreau | 9.68% |
| Hunter Renfrow | 8.96% |
| Darren Waller | 7.71% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 15 | 160 | 19.26 | 8.06 | 33.1% |
| Jarrett Stidham | 2 | 20 | 23.3 | 11.3 | 30.45% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 9.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.33 in those and 21.92 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 5 against CIN — 37.6 PPR on 16 targets and a 45.7% target share, in a game that finished 25-22. His worst was Week 9 against KC at 10.2, on 14 targets, final score 7-13. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 23.7; in the 8 decided by more, 19.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 18.3 points per game. He scored 21.52, 16.2% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 10 against 7.45 expected, a gap of 2.6.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 3-38 | 10.6 | 5 | 7 | 56 | 0 | 21.2% | 70% |
| 2 | DET | 35-17 | 20.1 | 8 | 9 | 121 | 0 | 33.3% | 88% |
| 3 | SF | 30-28 | 31.2 | 12 | 18 | 132 | 1 | 58.1% | 89% |
| 4 | PIT | 27-17 | 12.4 | 6 | 11 | 64 | 0 | 31.4% | 88% |
| 5 | CIN | 25-22 | 37.6 | 11 | 16 | 206 | 1 | 45.7% | 91% |
| 6 | CHI | 24-14 | 12.9 | 4 | 5 | 89 | 0 | 23.8% | 85% |
| 7 | WAS | 24-10 | 19.6 | 6 | 7 | 76 | 1 | 20.6% | 86% |
| 9 | KC | 7-13 | 10.2 | 6 | 14 | 42 | 0 | 43.8% | 92% |
| 10 | SEA | 17-0 | 14.8 | 7 | 11 | 78 | 0 | 31.4% | 95% |
| 11 | MIN | 31-34 | 30.5 | 7 | 8 | 115 | 2 | 25.8% | 88% |
| 12 | LA | 36-28 | 18.4 | 8 | 9 | 104 | 0 | 20.5% | 98% |
| 14 | CHI | 45-30 | 34.1 | 10 | 13 | 121 | 2 | 37.1% | 89% |
| 15 | BAL | 31-30 | 16.4 | 6 | 7 | 44 | 1 | 22.6% | 92% |
| 16 | CLE | 24-22 | 33.4 | 10 | 13 | 114 | 2 | 38.2% | 93% |
| 17 | MIN | 37-10 | 30.6 | 11 | 14 | 136 | 1 | 33.3% | 83% |
| 18 | DET | 30-37 | 11.5 | 6 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 20% | 32% |
| Receptions | 123 |
| Targets | 169 |
| Receiving yards | 1,553 |
| Touchdowns | 11 |
| Points per game | 21.52 |
| Yards per target | 9.19 |
| Catch rate | 72.78% |
| Snap share | 84.94% |
| Target share | 31.68% |
| Air-yards share | 36.47% |
| WOPR | 0.731 |
| RACR | 1.106 |
| Average depth of target | 9.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.8 |
| Total YAC | 592 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 115.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.5 |
| Red-zone targets | 29 |
| Red-zone target share | 23.2% |
| End-zone target share | 20.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 7.45 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 10 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.55 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 2 of 48 |
| Yards per target | 10 of 48 |
| Target share | 2 of 48 |
| Air-yards share | 8 of 48 |
The offense threw it 593 times. He took 29.7% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Davante Adams ← | 29.7% |
| Aaron Jones | 11.42% |
| Allen Lazard | 10.54% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 9.67% |
| Randall Cobb | 6.85% |
| A.J. Dillon | 6.5% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 15 | 155 | 22.27 | 9.75 | 30.87% |
| Jordan Love | 1 | 14 | 10.2 | 3 | 43.8% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 22.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 19.02 in those and 23.65 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 7 against HOU — 44.6 PPR on 16 targets and a 47.1% target share, in a game that finished 35-20. His worst was Week 2 against DET at 6.6, on 3 targets, final score 42-21. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 8 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 21.6; in the 9 decided by more, 27.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 19.6 points per game. He scored 25.6, 28.1% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 16 against 12.34 expected, a gap of 3.7.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 43-34 | 41.6 | 14 | 17 | 156 | 2 | 41.5% | 90% |
| 2 | DET | 42-21 | 6.6 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 10% | 52% |
| 6 | TB | 10-38 | 12.1 | 6 | 10 | 61 | 0 | 32.3% | 83% |
| 7 | HOU | 35-20 | 44.6 | 13 | 16 | 196 | 2 | 47.1% | 92% |
| 8 | MIN | 22-28 | 30.3 | 7 | 11 | 53 | 3 | 28.9% | 95% |
| 9 | SF | 34-17 | 33.3 | 10 | 12 | 173 | 1 | 40% | 76% |
| 10 | JAX | 24-20 | 18.6 | 8 | 12 | 66 | 1 | 36.4% | 82% |
| 11 | IND | 31-34 | 23.6 | 7 | 9 | 106 | 1 | 25.7% | 95% |
| 12 | CHI | 41-25 | 18.1 | 6 | 9 | 61 | 1 | 31% | 89% |
| 13 | PHI | 30-16 | 34.1 | 10 | 12 | 121 | 2 | 37.5% | 89% |
| 14 | DET | 31-24 | 24.5 | 7 | 10 | 115 | 1 | 32.3% | 93% |
| 15 | CAR | 24-16 | 11.2 | 7 | 10 | 42 | 0 | 38.5% | 97% |
| 16 | TEN | 40-14 | 43.2 | 11 | 12 | 142 | 3 | 50% | 71% |
| 17 | CHI | 35-16 | 16.6 | 6 | 6 | 46 | 1 | 25% | 89% |
| Receptions | 115 |
| Targets | 149 |
| Receiving yards | 1,374 |
| Touchdowns | 18 |
| Points per game | 25.6 |
| Yards per target | 9.22 |
| Catch rate | 77.18% |
| Snap share | 85.21% |
| Target share | 34.01% |
| Air-yards share | 38.34% |
| WOPR | 0.779 |
| RACR | 1.084 |
| Average depth of target | 8.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.8 |
| Total YAC | 597 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 136 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 5.53 |
| Red-zone targets | 37 |
| Red-zone target share | 40.2% |
| End-zone target share | 44.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 12.34 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 16 |
| Receiving TD luck | 3.66 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 1 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 13 of 51 |
| Target share | 1 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 4 of 51 |
The offense threw it 526 times. He took 29.8% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Davante Adams ← | 29.8% |
| Aaron Jones | 12.6% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 12.6% |
| Robert Tonyan | 11.8% |
| Allen Lazard | 9.2% |
| Jamaal Williams | 7% |
5 of his 14 games were blowouts, 31.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 22.36 in those and 21.64 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Davante Adams →