Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 14.68 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 23.3, usage worth 13.
23 years old · 2 seasons of experience · 2024 draft class
| SLEEPER | 20.7 |
| ESPN | 23.8 |
| YAHOO | 20.9 |
| UNDERDOG | 19.9 |
| CBS | 27.6 |
| FFA | 19 |
| Goes around | Round 2, pick 11 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE2 |
| Bye week | 13 |
| ADP standard deviation | 3.2 picks |
Our board has him at 251 points, 16.5 per game — 102.3 catches, 1,091 yards, 6.6 TDs. That is TE1, 19 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 11.4 points per game to a ceiling of 19.7, with the median at 16.5. Boom rate 20%, bust rate 31%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 23.3 on consensus and our board has him 19. We rank him 4.3 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
set the rookie TE fantasy-points record AND the overall rookie reception record across every position (RB/WR/TE) at 22 years old, despite getting hurt in the first game of the season and playing hurt/limited the rest of the way (visibly not himself on tape, snap share down, backup mixed in more than they otherwise would have). The team's own internal goal entering last season was reportedly to break the all-time single-season reception record with him. New OC has a track record of running a high rate of 2-TE personnel, which for a team with a genuinely weak WR room functionally makes Bowers a
buy · high conviction · 2026-08Las Vegas Raiders returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, wr1, hc, oc. Kirk Cousins at quarterback, Klint Kubiak as head coach, Andrew Janocko calling it. The offense projects to 32.2 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 24.8 rushes.
In: Kirk Cousins (qb), Fernando Mendoza (qb2), Jalen Nailor (wr1), Malik Benson (wr5), Dareke Young (wr6), Philip Dorsett II (wr7), Mike Washington Jr (rb2), Chris Collier (rb4). Out: Geno Smith (qb), Jach Bech (wr2), Tyler Lockett (wr3), Raheem Mostert (rb2), Zamir White (rb3).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 21%, with a bear case of 20.1% and a bull case of 23.1% and a full range of 18.9% to 25.1%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Brock Bowers ← | 21% |
| Tre Tucker | 14% |
| Ashton Jeanty | 12.7% |
| Michael Mayer | 9.7% |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | 7.7% |
| Jack Bech | 7.4% |
What the offense looks like: If this offense can click, the top players in this offense will all have their values increase significantly. There is talent here: Bowers, Jeanty, Mendoza. But this WR corp is lacking, however Tucker, Nailor, Bech, and even Thornton Jr have a huge opportunity to step up.
Key additions: Drafted Fernando Mendoza 1 overall. Kirk Cousins signed in free agency on vet minimum deal. C Tyler Linderbaum landed HUGE deal coming over from Baltimore (top center in NFL). WR Jalen Nailor landed a 3 year deal & COULD be raiders WR1 IF no other veterans are brought in.
Key departures: QB Geno Smith was traded to the Jets.
Notes: Mendoza 1.01 franchise QB of the future. Raiders also signed Kirk Cousins & he is assumed week 1 starter. Mendoza may not play early half of season unless beats Cousins out in camp. Raiders spent big in free agency and O line should be better but still bad. Buy Bowers long-term. Monitor Mendoza development. Raiders will probably sign a veteran WR who could operate as WR1, either Jauan Jennings or Diggs or Tyreek Hill or Keenan Allen potentially. Tyreek Hill also an option. Mike Washington Jr will back up Ashton Jeanty. New HC Klint Kubiak former Seahawks OC should also boost offense creativity.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Kirk Cousins, avg 29.6 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.1 att/g; New OC Andrew Janocko — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Klint Kubiak.
25 historical comps for TEs age ~23, prior share 24.2%, same team, OC change, QB change. Distribution: median 20.0%, p25-p75 [18.4%, 24.0%], tails [16.0%, 27.9%]. Closest comps: George Kittle 2021→2022 (SF: 25.3%→19.4%); T.J. Hockenson 2023→2024 (MIN: 22.4%→17.6%); Mark Andrews 2023→2024 (BAL: 23.8%→15.7%).
self-anchored 45% to own 24.2% role (2yr), 55% to comp median 20.0%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: LV rates 19.6 against a league average of 23, 3.4 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -5 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -9.6 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | -3.6 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.6 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 | Michael Mayer | +5.6 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +10% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LaPorta | 2023 | 14.1 | 68% | -15.2% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2020 | 11 | 56% | +11.6% |
| Sam LaPorta | 2024 | 10.9 | 55% | -8.7% |
| Noah Fant | 2021 | 9.9 | 54% | -35.3% |
| Trey McBride | 2024 | 15.2 | 54% | +24% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2024, round 1, pick 13 by LVR |
| College | Georgia |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 6′3″ |
| Weight | 243 lb |
| Career PPR per game | 16 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 17.4% |
| Bust rate | 21.7% |
| Games missed per season | 1 |
| Injury history | Knee |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.23 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 9 against JAX — 43.3 PPR on 13 targets and a 34.2% target share, in a game that finished 29-30. His worst was Week 10 against DEN at 3.7, on 3 targets, final score 7-10. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.8; in the 6 decided by more, 12.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 13 points per game. He scored 14.68, 12.8% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 4.25 expected, a gap of 1.8.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 20-13 | 15.3 | 5 | 8 | 103 | 0 | 24.2% | 51% |
| 2 | LAC | 9-20 | 8.8 | 5 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 18.6% | 77% |
| 3 | WAS | 24-41 | 9.8 | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 18.5% | 83% |
| 4 | CHI | 24-25 | 9.6 | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 30% | 77% |
| 9 | JAX | 29-30 | 43.3 | 12 | 13 | 127 | 3 | 34.2% | 81% |
| 10 | DEN | 7-10 | 3.7 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 12% | 83% |
| 11 | DAL | 16-33 | 14.2 | 7 | 12 | 72 | 0 | 30.8% | 97% |
| 12 | CLE | 10-24 | 11.5 | 6 | 9 | 55 | 0 | 21.4% | 96% |
| 13 | LAC | 14-31 | 22.3 | 4 | 4 | 63 | 2 | 18.2% | 98% |
| 14 | DEN | 17-24 | 14.6 | 4 | 5 | 46 | 1 | 17.9% | 100% |
| 15 | PHI | 0-31 | 8.8 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 32% | 90% |
| 16 | HOU | 21-23 | 14.3 | 5 | 5 | 33 | 1 | 22.7% | 98% |
| Receptions | 64 |
| Targets | 86 |
| Receiving yards | 680 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 2 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 14.68 |
| Yards per target | 7.91 |
| Catch rate | 74.42% |
| Yards per carry | 1 |
| Snap share | 85.92% |
| Target share | 23.38% |
| Air-yards share | 25.03% |
| WOPR | 0.527 |
| RACR | 1.582 |
| Average depth of target | 6.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.9 |
| Total YAC | 305 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 109.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.95 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.1 |
| Red-zone targets | 17 |
| Red-zone target share | 28.3% |
| End-zone target share | 56.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.25 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.75 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 2 of 13 |
| Yards per target | 4 of 13 |
| Target share | 2 of 13 |
| Air-yards share | 1 of 13 |
The offense threw it 515 times. He took 17.44% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tre Tucker | 18.66% |
| Brock Bowers ← | 17.44% |
| Ashton Jeanty | 14.81% |
| Michael Mayer | 10.14% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 9.94% |
| Tyler Lockett | 6.9% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 11 | 78 | 15.22 | 8.36 | 22.59% |
| Kenny Pickett | 1 | 8 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 32% |
4 of his 12 games were blowouts, 31.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.77 in those and 16.8 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 11 against MIA — 31.3 PPR on 16 targets and a 41% target share, in a game that finished 19-34. His worst was Week 4 against CLE at 5.1, on 3 targets, final score 20-16. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.9; in the 10 decided by more, 15.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 15.9 points per game. He scored 15.45, 3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 4.49 expected, a gap of -3.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 10-22 | 11.8 | 6 | 8 | 58 | 0 | 25% | 68% |
| 2 | BAL | 26-23 | 18.8 | 9 | 9 | 98 | 0 | 25% | 68% |
| 3 | CAR | 22-36 | 7.1 | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 10.3% | 66% |
| 4 | CLE | 20-16 | 5.1 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 12.5% | 81% |
| 5 | DEN | 18-34 | 23.7 | 8 | 12 | 97 | 1 | 33.3% | 79% |
| 6 | PIT | 13-32 | 16.1 | 9 | 10 | 71 | 0 | 27% | 79% |
| 7 | LA | 15-20 | 19.3 | 10 | 14 | 93 | 0 | 40% | 84% |
| 8 | KC | 20-27 | 10.8 | 5 | 5 | 58 | 0 | 18.5% | 91% |
| 9 | CIN | 24-41 | 15.5 | 5 | 8 | 45 | 1 | 25% | 90% |
| 11 | MIA | 19-34 | 31.3 | 13 | 16 | 126 | 1 | 41% | 95% |
| 12 | DEN | 19-29 | 7.8 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 0 | 21.7% | 94% |
| 13 | KC | 17-19 | 30.2 | 10 | 14 | 140 | 1 | 41.2% | 90% |
| 14 | TB | 13-28 | 8.2 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 14.3% | 85% |
| 15 | ATL | 9-15 | 6.5 | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 17.6% | 94% |
| 16 | JAX | 19-14 | 20.9 | 11 | 13 | 99 | 0 | 35.1% | 95% |
| 17 | NO | 25-10 | 14.6 | 7 | 7 | 77 | 0 | 20% | 91% |
| 18 | LAC | 20-34 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 50 | 1 | 26.5% | 94% |
| Receptions | 112 |
| Targets | 153 |
| Receiving yards | 1,194 |
| Carries | 5 |
| Rushing yards | 13 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 15.45 |
| Yards per target | 7.8 |
| Catch rate | 73.2% |
| Yards per carry | 2.6 |
| Snap share | 84.94% |
| Target share | 25.53% |
| Air-yards share | 21.14% |
| WOPR | 0.53 |
| RACR | 1.384 |
| Average depth of target | 6.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.3 |
| Total YAC | 596 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 92.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.59 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.05 |
| Red-zone targets | 16 |
| Red-zone target share | 25.4% |
| End-zone target share | 20% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.49 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -3.49 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 2 of 13 |
| Yards per target | 5 of 13 |
| Target share | 2 of 13 |
| Air-yards share | 3 of 13 |
The offense threw it 634 times. He took 25.89% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Brock Bowers ← | 25.89% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 21.83% |
| Tre Tucker | 13.71% |
| Alexander Mattison | 8.12% |
| Ameer Abdullah | 7.95% |
| Michael Mayer | 5.41% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 9 | 77 | 14.17 | 7.48 | 24.33% |
| Aidan O'Connell | 7 | 70 | 18.39 | 8.33 | 28.2% |
| Desmond Ridder | 1 | 6 | 6.5 | 5.83 | 17.6% |
2 of his 17 games were blowouts, 12% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.8 in those and 15.94 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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