Darren Waller — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 9.86 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 6.9.

33 years old · 11 seasons of experience · 2015 draft class

ESPN	170
UNDERDOG	215.5
FFA	226

Draft-room facts

Goes around	Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rank	TE63

The offense he plays in, 2026

Miami Dolphins returns 1 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, wr1, te1, hc, oc. Malik Willis at quarterback, Jeff Hafley as head coach, Bobby Slowik calling it. The offense projects to 30 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 26.1 rushes.

In: Malik Willis (qb), Caleb Douglas (wr1), Chris Bell (wr2), Jalen Tolbert (wr4), Tutu Atwell (wr5), Kevin Coleman Jr. (wr6), Terrace Marshall Jr. (wr7), Donovan Edwards (rb4), Will Kacmarek (te2). Out: Tua Tagovailoa (qb), Tyreek Hill (wr1), Jaylen Waddle (wr2), Theo Wease Jr. (wr4), Darren Waller (te1).

The projected target split across the offense:

De'Von Achane	15%
Greg Dulcich	14%
Tutu Atwell	10.4%
Caleb Douglas	9.3%
Malik Washington	9.2%
Chris Bell	9.1%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

How the volume number was reached: New QB Malik Willis, avg 8.9 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30 att/g; New OC Bobby Slowik — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jeff Hafley.

Offensive environment: MIA rates 19.5 against a league average of 23, 3.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season	-3 · harder
Weeks 1–6	-4.8 · harder
Weeks 12–17	-5.1 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)	-13.9 · harder

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

Season	Games missed	Main beneficiary	Their PPR gain
2021	4	Foster Moreau	+4.6
2025	3	Julian Hill	+-1.6

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved -39.3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, TEs recover only 30% of the time (keep falling 70%).

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

Player	Season	Their PPG	Similarity	Next year
Austin Hooper	2024	6.4	43%	-14.1%
Tyler Higbee	2023	7.2	41%	+1.2%
Dallas Goedert	2024	10.4	41%	+6.7%
Gerald Everett	2023	7.4	41%	-55.8%
Tyler Conklin	2024	7.6	40%	-29.8%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 3 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted	2015, round 6, pick 204 by BAL
College	Georgia Tech
Age at draft	22
Height	6′6″
Weight	238 lb
40-yard dash	4.46s
Vertical	37″
Broad jump	125″
3-cone	7.07s
Shuttle	4.25s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game	12.3
Week-to-week variation	0.7
Boom rate	19.5%
Bust rate	26.8%
Games missed per season	1.8
Injury history	Back, Hamstring, Hip

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · MIA · 9 games

His best game was Week 15 against PIT — 25.6 PPR on 8 targets and a 30.8% target share, in a game that finished 15-28. His worst was Week 7 against CLE at 0, on 0 targets, final score 6-31. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.7; in the 4 decided by more, 8.8. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 6.9 points per game. He scored 9.86, 43.8% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 2.18 expected, a gap of 3.8.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
4	NYJ	27-21	17.7	3	4	27	2	16%	28%
5	CAR	24-27	18.8	5	5	78	1	14.7%	58%
6	LAC	27-29	9.2	2	3	12	1	10%	66%
7	CLE	6-31	0	0	0	0	0	0%	28%
13	NO	21-17	6.7	2	3	47	0	15%	47%
14	NYJ	34-10	2.7	1	3	13	0	14.3%	37%
15	PIT	15-28	25.6	7	8	66	2	30.8%	54%
16	CIN	21-45	7	3	5	40	0	17.2%	49%
17	TB	20-17	1	1	3	0	0	13.6%	38%

Production

Receptions	24
Targets	34
Receiving yards	283
Carries	1
Rushing yards	4
Touchdowns	6
Points per game	9.86
Yards per target	8.32
Catch rate	70.59%
Yards per carry	4

Role

Snap share	45%
Target share	14.62%
Air-yards share	22.07%
WOPR	0.373
RACR	0.647

Efficiency

Average depth of target	10.6
Yards after catch per reception	3
Yards before catch per reception	8.8
Total YAC	73
Broken tackles	0
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	135.2
Receiving EPA per game	3.14
Rushing EPA per game	0.04

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	7
Red-zone target share	10.9%
End-zone target share	30.4%
Expected receiving TDs	2.18
Actual receiving TDs	6
Receiving TD luck	3.82

Who else ate

The offense threw it 479 times. He took 7.56% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Jaylen Waddle	22.22%
De'Von Achane	18.89%
Malik Washington	14.44%
Darren Waller ←	7.56%
Greg Dulcich	7.33%
Tyreek Hill	6.44%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Tua Tagovailoa	7	26	11.53	9.35	14.4%
Quinn Ewers	2	8	4	5	15.4%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 9 games were blowouts, 10.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.23 in those and 10.68 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · NYG · 12 games

His best game was Week 7 against WAS — 22.8 PPR on 8 targets and a 29.6% target share, in a game that finished 14-7. His worst was Week 8 against NYJ at 1.4, on 2 targets, final score 10-13. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.4; in the 6 decided by more, 8.5. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 10.7 points per game. He scored 9.43, 11.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	DAL	0-40	6.6	3	5	36	0	17.2%	54%
2	ARI	31-28	13.6	6	8	76	0	22.9%	90%
3	SF	12-30	5	3	7	20	0	21.9%	82%
4	SEA	3-24	5.1	3	3	21	0	9.4%	92%
5	MIA	16-31	16.6	8	11	86	0	36.7%	92%
6	BUF	9-14	9.3	5	7	43	0	22.6%	92%
7	WAS	14-7	22.8	7	8	98	1	29.6%	82%
8	NYJ	10-13	1.4	1	2	4	0	16.7%	23%
15	NO	6-24	8	4	6	40	0	17.6%	42%
16	PHI	25-33	5.2	2	5	32	0	18.5%	63%
17	LA	25-26	10.1	5	6	51	0	15.4%	66%
18	PHI	27-10	9.5	5	6	45	0	18.8%	51%

Production

Receptions	52
Targets	74
Receiving yards	552
Touchdowns	1
Points per game	9.43
Yards per target	7.46
Catch rate	70.27%

Role

Snap share	69.08%
Target share	20.61%
Air-yards share	24.61%
WOPR	0.482
RACR	1.017

Efficiency

Average depth of target	8
Yards after catch per reception	4.1
Yards before catch per reception	6.6
Total YAC	211
Broken tackles	0
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	85
Receiving EPA per game	1.28

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	4
Red-zone target share	11.4%
End-zone target share	14.3%
Expected receiving TDs	0.88
Actual receiving TDs	1
Receiving TD luck	0.12

Who else ate

The offense threw it 518 times. He took 15.29% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Darius Slayton	16.32%
Wan'Dale Robinson	16.12%
Darren Waller ←	15.29%
Saquon Barkley	12.4%
Jalin Hyatt	8.26%
Isaiah Hodgins	6.82%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Tyrod Taylor	6	34	9.72	8.03	20.27%
Daniel Jones	5	34	9.38	7.03	21.62%
Tommy DeVito	1	6	8	6.67	17.6%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 12 games were blowouts, 30.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.84 in those and 10.4 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · LV · 8 games

His best game was Week 2 against ARI — 17 PPR on 8 targets and a 20.5% target share, in a game that finished 23-29. His worst was Week 3 against TEN at 5.2, on 5 targets, final score 22-24. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 3 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 9.4 points per game. He scored 10.6, 12.6% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 3.06 expected, a gap of -2.1.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	LAC	19-24	11.9	4	6	79	0	17.1%	84%
2	ARI	23-29	17	6	8	50	1	20.5%	55%
3	TEN	22-24	5.2	3	5	22	0	12.2%	73%
4	DEN	32-23	5.4	3	5	24	0	16.7%	80%
15	NE	30-24	13.8	3	3	48	1	9.4%	49%
16	PIT	10-13	9.8	4	5	58	0	16.7%	40%
17	SF	34-37	16.2	3	5	72	1	15.6%	57%
18	KC	13-31	5.5	2	6	35	0	17.6%	67%

Production

Receptions	28
Targets	43
Receiving yards	388
Touchdowns	3
Points per game	10.6
Yards per target	9.02
Catch rate	65.12%

Role

Snap share	63.13%
Target share	15.73%
Air-yards share	23.11%
WOPR	0.4
RACR	0.694

Efficiency

Average depth of target	13.5
Yards after catch per reception	2.9
Yards before catch per reception	11
Total YAC	80
Broken tackles	0
Drop rate	0.1%
Passer rating when targeted	97.8
Receiving EPA per game	0.61

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	11
Red-zone target share	15.5%
End-zone target share	18.9%
Expected receiving TDs	3.06
Actual receiving TDs	1
Receiving TD luck	-2.06

Who else ate

The offense threw it 586 times. He took 7.71% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Davante Adams	32.26%
Mack Hollins	16.85%
Josh Jacobs	11.47%
Foster Moreau	9.68%
Hunter Renfrow	8.96%
Darren Waller ←	7.71%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Derek Carr	6	32	10.52	8.78	15.43%
Jarrett Stidham	2	11	10.85	9.73	16.6%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 8 games were blowouts, 6.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.5 in those and 12.32 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2021 · LV · 11 games

His best game was Week 1 against BAL — 26.5 PPR on 19 targets and a 36.5% target share, in a game that finished 33-27. His worst was Week 18 against LAC at 4.2, on 9 targets, final score 35-32. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.5; in the 6 decided by more, 11.8. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 15.3 points per game. He scored 12.14, 19.2% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 3.94 expected, a gap of -1.9.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	BAL	33-27	26.5	10	19	105	1	36.5%	94%
2	PIT	26-17	11.5	5	7	65	0	18.9%	92%
3	MIA	31-28	10.4	5	7	54	0	17.5%	80%
4	LAC	14-28	15	4	7	50	1	21.9%	93%
5	CHI	9-20	8.5	4	8	45	0	22.9%	96%
6	DEN	34-24	10.9	5	5	59	0	20%	82%
9	NYG	16-23	16.2	7	11	92	0	23.9%	88%
10	KC	14-41	6.4	4	7	24	0	20.6%	91%
11	CIN	13-32	18.6	7	8	116	0	32%	94%
12	DAL	36-33	5.3	2	5	33	0	13.2%	24%
18	LAC	35-32	4.2	2	9	22	0	27.3%	78%

Production

Receptions	55
Targets	93
Receiving yards	665
Touchdowns	2
Points per game	12.14
Yards per target	7.15
Catch rate	59.14%

Role

Snap share	82.91%
Target share	23.15%
Air-yards share	25.29%
WOPR	0.525
RACR	0.748

Efficiency

Average depth of target	9.8
Yards after catch per reception	4.4
Yards before catch per reception	7.7
Total YAC	242
Broken tackles	3
Drop rate	0.1%
Passer rating when targeted	79.4
Receiving EPA per game	1.11

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	18
Red-zone target share	18.6%
End-zone target share	21.1%
Expected receiving TDs	3.94
Actual receiving TDs	2
Receiving TD luck	-1.94

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game	6 of 15
Yards per target	8 of 15
Target share	2 of 15
Air-yards share	3 of 15

Who else ate

The offense threw it 628 times. He took 15.74% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Hunter Renfrow	21.66%
Darren Waller ←	15.74%
Zay Jones	11.84%
Josh Jacobs	10.83%
Bryan Edwards	9.98%
Foster Moreau	7.45%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 11 games were blowouts, 18.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.5 in those and 12.52 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2020 · LV · 16 games

His best game was Week 13 against NYJ — 45 PPR on 17 targets and a 37% target share, in a game that finished 31-28. His worst was Week 3 against NE at 2.9, on 4 targets, final score 20-36. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 21.7; in the 7 decided by more, 11.9. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16 points per game. He scored 17.41, 8.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	CAR	34-30	10.5	6	8	45	0	28.6%	89%
2	NO	34-24	28.5	12	16	105	1	47.1%	93%
3	NE	20-36	2.9	2	4	9	0	12.5%	95%
4	BUF	23-30	15.8	9	11	88	0	25.6%	95%
5	KC	40-32	15.8	5	7	48	1	22.6%	91%
7	TB	20-45	17	6	9	50	1	25%	91%
8	CLE	16-6	7.7	5	6	27	0	27.3%	79%
9	LAC	31-26	13.2	5	10	22	1	43.5%	88%
10	DEN	37-12	6.7	3	5	37	0	22.7%	89%
11	KC	31-35	21.8	7	7	88	1	24.1%	93%
12	ATL	6-43	6.3	4	7	23	0	18.9%	97%
13	NYJ	31-28	45	13	17	200	2	37%	95%
14	IND	27-44	14.5	7	10	75	0	22.2%	97%
15	LAC	27-30	30	9	12	150	1	40%	91%
16	MIA	25-26	16.2	5	6	112	0	20%	98%
17	DEN	32-31	26.7	9	10	117	1	28.6%	87%

Production

Receptions	107
Targets	145
Receiving yards	1,196
Touchdowns	9
Points per game	17.41
Yards per target	8.25
Catch rate	73.79%

Role

Snap share	91.75%
Target share	27.86%
Air-yards share	24.16%
WOPR	0.586
RACR	1.144

Efficiency

Average depth of target	7.8
Yards after catch per reception	5.3
Yards before catch per reception	5.8
Total YAC	572
Broken tackles	7
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	110
Receiving EPA per game	3.59

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	23
Red-zone target share	31.5%
End-zone target share	27.6%
Expected receiving TDs	6.32
Actual receiving TDs	6
Receiving TD luck	-0.32

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game	2 of 12
Yards per target	3 of 12
Target share	1 of 12
Air-yards share	3 of 12

Who else ate

The offense threw it 551 times. He took 28.66% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Darren Waller ←	28.66%
Nelson Agholor	16.21%
Hunter Renfrow	15.22%
Josh Jacobs	8.89%
Henry Ruggs	8.5%
Jalen Richard	4.55%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Derek Carr	15	133	16.57	7.86	27.05%
Marcus Mariota	1	12	30	12.5	40%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 16% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.13 in those and 21.67 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

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