Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 11.54 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 89.1, usage worth 10.7.
24 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| SLEEPER | 79.7 |
| ESPN | 102.5 |
| YAHOO | 87.8 |
| UNDERDOG | 59.1 |
| CBS | 86.5 |
| FFA | 72 |
| Goes around | Round 8, pick 5 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR36 |
| Bye week | 7 |
| ADP standard deviation | 9.6 picks |
Our board has him at 190.4 points, 11.6 per game — 65.4 catches, 845 yards, 5.9 TDs. That is WR4, 72 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 7.6 points per game to a ceiling of 17.1, with the median at 11.6. Boom rate 47%, bust rate 34%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 89.1 on consensus and our board has him 72. We rank him 17.1 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
clearly the best WR on his own team last season by underlying metrics, and that performance extended into and through the playoffs, not just a good regular season. Now confirmed (per the coaching staff's own framing) to be locked into the Z/F rotation on essentially every snap while a teammate (Brian Thomas Jr.) handles the tougher X-outside routes — this specific split sets Washington up as the more efficient, higher-target-share option of the two despite going off the board much later.
hold · medium conviction · 2026-08Jacksonville Jaguars returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1. Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, Liam Coen as head coach, Grant Udinski calling it. The offense projects to 33.2 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 28.1 rushes.
In: CJ Williams (wr5), Josh Cameron (wr6), Bhaysul Tuten (rb1), Chris Rodriguez Jr. (rb2), DeeJay dallas (rb4), Nate Boerkircher (te2). Out: Travis Etienne Jr (rb1), Bhayshul Tuten (rb2), Johnny Mundt (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 14.5%, with a bear case of 12.3% and a bull case of 15.7% and a full range of 9.1% to 16.2%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Jakobi Meyers | 19.9% |
| Brian Thomas Jr | 18.8% |
| Parker Washington ← | 14.5% |
| Brenton Strange | 11% |
| Nate Boerkircher | 8.8% |
| Josh Cameron | 6.8% |
Key additions: Chris Rodriguez Jr. signed 2 year deal (previously with commanders). Nate Boerkircher TE 2nd round. 2 6th round WR Josh Cameron & CJ Williams.
Key departures: Travis Etienne Jr. left Jacksonville for Saints in free agency.
Notes: Travis Etienne Jr. has left the Jaguars in free agency for the Saints. Opening door for Bhayshul Tuten to operate as team lead back. Jaguars sign Chris Rodriguez Jr. to 2 year deal from Commanders. Jaguars draft Nate Boerkircher (TE) in 2nd round and should cause competition for Brenton Strange. Also drafted Josh Cameron & CJ Williams both WR in the 6th round. Travis Hunter is expected to play more CB than WR in 2026, but we will need confirmation through camp (very bad for dynasty value if true). Brian Thomas Jr looks to return to his rookie form as a true WR1 but Jakobi Meyers may operate as the teams 1A. Parker Washington has potential to be massive contributor in 2026 if BTJ struggles continue.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Trevor Lawrence returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.1 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.2 att/g.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~24, prior share 17.6%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 16.6%, p25-p75 [11.9%, 19.3%], tails [5.0%, 20.3%]. Closest comps: Tim Patrick 2021→2022 (DEN: 17.6%→0.0%); Jauan Jennings 2024→2025 (SF: 18.5%→19.3%); Romeo Doubs 2024→2025 (GB: 17.9%→19.5%). Adjustment: flat from opportunity_breakout (volume must hold)
self-anchored 45% to own 17.6% role (2yr), 55% to comp median 16.6%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: JAX rates 22.4 against a league average of 23, 0.6 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +3.5 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | -8.7 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +11.3 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +8.4 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Parker Washington study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +144.9% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, WRs crash the following year 40% of the time (hold 60%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 40% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 2024 | 12.2 | 64% | -7.5% |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 2022 | 9.8 | 63% | -37% |
| Gabe Davis | 2022 | 11.4 | 63% | +8.1% |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2024 | 6.5 | 62% | +0.3% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2023 | 12.5 | 60% | +6.2% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 6, pick 185 by JAX |
| College | Penn St. |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 5′10″ |
| Weight | 204 lb |
| Career PPR per game | 9.6 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.7 |
| Boom rate | 20.7% |
| Bust rate | 24.1% |
| Games missed per season | 0.3 |
| Injury history | Knee |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.37 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 16 against DEN — 26.5 PPR on 10 targets and a 28.6% target share, in a game that finished 34-20. His worst was Week 1 against CAR at 0, on 0 targets, final score 26-10. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.5; in the 7 decided by more, 10.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 10.7 points per game. He scored 11.54, 14.2% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 5 against 3.46 expected, a gap of 1.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 26-10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 26% |
| 2 | CIN | 27-31 | 12.6 | 5 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12.2% | 24% |
| 3 | HOU | 17-10 | 7.4 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28.9% | 71% |
| 4 | SF | 26-21 | 5.9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 6.7% | 85% |
| 5 | KC | 31-28 | 9.6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12% | 26% |
| 6 | SEA | 12-20 | 4.9 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.5% | 33% |
| 7 | LA | 7-35 | 10.2 | 4 | 10 | 52 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 21.3% | 88% |
| 9 | LV | 30-29 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27.3% | 88% |
| 10 | HOU | 29-36 | 17.9 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 2 | -4 | 1 | 30.4% | 87% |
| 11 | LAC | 35-6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.1% | 76% |
| 12 | ARI | 27-24 | 18.1 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23.3% | 84% |
| 13 | TEN | 25-3 | 3.6 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12% | 38% |
| 15 | NYJ | 48-20 | 8.3 | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.7% | 45% |
| 16 | DEN | 34-20 | 26.5 | 6 | 10 | 145 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 28.6% | 56% |
| 17 | IND | 23-17 | 19 | 8 | 10 | 115 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 27% | 81% |
| 18 | TEN | 41-7 | 19.7 | 5 | 9 | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 29% | 74% |
| Receptions | 58 |
| Targets | 95 |
| Receiving yards | 847 |
| Carries | 7 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 11.54 |
| Yards per target | 8.92 |
| Catch rate | 61.05% |
| Snap share | 61.38% |
| Target share | 18% |
| Air-yards share | 24.2% |
| WOPR | 0.44 |
| RACR | 0.796 |
| Average depth of target | 12.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10 |
| Total YAC | 265 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 94.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.86 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.09 |
| Red-zone targets | 17 |
| Red-zone target share | 18.5% |
| End-zone target share | 21.6% |
| Red-zone carry share | 0.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.46 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.54 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.39 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 30 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 12 of 44 |
| Target share | 40 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 36 of 44 |
The offense threw it 563 times. He took 18.92% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Parker Washington ← | 18.92% |
| Brian Thomas | 18.13% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 12.15% |
| Brenton Strange | 11.95% |
| Travis Etienne | 10.36% |
| Dyami Brown | 7.37% |
5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 24.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.16 in those and 12.49 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 13 against HOU — 24.3 PPR on 12 targets and a 28.6% target share, in a game that finished 20-23. His worst was Week 6 against CHI at 0, on 0 targets, final score 16-35. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.5; in the 4 decided by more, 3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7 points per game. He scored 6.93, 7.3% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 17-20 | 1.3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5.3% | 13% |
| 2 | CLE | 13-18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.7% | 22% |
| 3 | BUF | 10-47 | 3.8 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 6.8% | 31% |
| 6 | CHI | 16-35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 29% |
| 7 | NE | 32-16 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 34% |
| 8 | GB | 27-30 | 7.6 | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 13.3% | 74% |
| 9 | PHI | 23-28 | 7.1 | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 20% | 85% |
| 11 | DET | 6-52 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 10.7% | 58% |
| 13 | HOU | 20-23 | 24.3 | 6 | 12 | 103 | 1 | 28.6% | 80% |
| 14 | TEN | 10-6 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6.7% | 75% |
| 15 | NYJ | 25-32 | 8.4 | 3 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 14% | 86% |
| 16 | LV | 14-19 | 11.4 | 6 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 17.1% | 94% |
| 17 | TEN | 20-13 | 12.1 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 1 | 14.3% | 83% |
| 18 | IND | 23-26 | 9.5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 12.9% | 86% |
| Receptions | 32 |
| Targets | 51 |
| Receiving yards | 390 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 6.93 |
| Yards per target | 7.65 |
| Catch rate | 62.75% |
| Snap share | 60.71% |
| Target share | 10.96% |
| Air-yards share | 14.47% |
| WOPR | 0.266 |
| RACR | 0.539 |
| Average depth of target | 11.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.8 |
| Total YAC | 108 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 97.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.96 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 11.1% |
| End-zone target share | 11.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.68 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.32 |
The offense threw it 546 times. He took 9.77% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Brian Thomas | 25.48% |
| Evan Engram | 12.26% |
| Brenton Strange | 10.15% |
| Travis Etienne | 9.96% |
| Parker Washington ← | 9.77% |
| Christian Kirk | 9% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 7 | 15 | 3.69 | 7.2 | 7.01% |
| Mac Jones | 7 | 36 | 10.17 | 7.83 | 14.9% |
3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.93 in those and 8.52 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 13 against CIN — 18.1 PPR on 6 targets and a 15.4% target share, in a game that finished 31-34. His worst was Week 12 against HOU at 0, on 0 targets, final score 24-21. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.2; in the 4 decided by more, 2.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 6 points per game. He scored 4.9, 8.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 0.74 expected, a gap of 1.3.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | ATL | 23-7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2% |
| 12 | HOU | 24-21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1% |
| 13 | CIN | 31-34 | 18.1 | 6 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 15.4% | 59% |
| 14 | CLE | 27-31 | 8.7 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 1 | 6.1% | 62% |
| 15 | BAL | 7-23 | 5.2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 14.3% | 45% |
| 16 | TB | 12-30 | 3.9 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 9.1% | 58% |
| 17 | CAR | 26-0 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4.3% | 40% |
| 18 | TEN | 20-28 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2.4% | 68% |
| Receptions | 16 |
| Targets | 21 |
| Receiving yards | 132 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 4.9 |
| Yards per target | 6.29 |
| Catch rate | 76.19% |
| Snap share | 41.88% |
| Target share | 6.45% |
| Air-yards share | 4.61% |
| WOPR | 0.129 |
| RACR | 0.656 |
| Average depth of target | 7.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.1 |
| Total YAC | 34 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 103.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.19 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 4.5% |
| End-zone target share | 5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.74 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.26 |
The offense threw it 619 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Evan Engram | 23.56% |
| Calvin Ridley | 22.41% |
| Christian Kirk | 14% |
| Travis Etienne | 12.03% |
| Zay Jones | 10.54% |
| Jamal Agnew | 3.46% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 7 | 20 | 5.43 | 6.5 | 6.76% |
| C.J. Beathard | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 2 | 4.3% |
2 of his 8 games were blowouts, 13% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.55 in those and 7.23 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Parker Washington →