Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 14.42 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 14.5, usage worth 16.7.
22 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| SLEEPER | 13.7 |
| ESPN | 17.8 |
| YAHOO | 13.7 |
| UNDERDOG | 12 |
| CBS | 12.7 |
| FFA | 11 |
| Goes around | Round 2, pick 3 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB8 |
| Bye week | 13 |
| ADP standard deviation | 2.3 picks |
Our board has him at 273.6 points, 17.1 per game — 1,174 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs, 55.8 catches. That is RB1, 11 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 14.4 points per game to a ceiling of 23.8, with the median at 17.1. Boom rate 39%, bust rate 16%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 14.5 on consensus and our board has him 11. We rank him 3.5 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
Tier-1 talent and the rare rookie worth an early pick — highest-paid rookie RB for a reason; will be featured. Late-1st.
elite · high conviction · 2026-06-05Las Vegas Raiders returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, wr1, hc, oc. Kirk Cousins at quarterback, Klint Kubiak as head coach, Andrew Janocko calling it. The offense projects to 32.2 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 24.8 rushes.
In: Kirk Cousins (qb), Fernando Mendoza (qb2), Jalen Nailor (wr1), Malik Benson (wr5), Dareke Young (wr6), Philip Dorsett II (wr7), Mike Washington Jr (rb2), Chris Collier (rb4). Out: Geno Smith (qb), Jach Bech (wr2), Tyler Lockett (wr3), Raheem Mostert (rb2), Zamir White (rb3).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Ashton Jeanty ← | 66.7% |
| Mike Washington Jr | 24% |
| Dylan Laube | 6% |
| Chris Collier | 3.3% |
What the offense looks like: If this offense can click, the top players in this offense will all have their values increase significantly. There is talent here: Bowers, Jeanty, Mendoza. But this WR corp is lacking, however Tucker, Nailor, Bech, and even Thornton Jr have a huge opportunity to step up.
Key additions: Drafted Fernando Mendoza 1 overall. Kirk Cousins signed in free agency on vet minimum deal. C Tyler Linderbaum landed HUGE deal coming over from Baltimore (top center in NFL). WR Jalen Nailor landed a 3 year deal & COULD be raiders WR1 IF no other veterans are brought in.
Key departures: QB Geno Smith was traded to the Jets.
Notes: Mendoza 1.01 franchise QB of the future. Raiders also signed Kirk Cousins & he is assumed week 1 starter. Mendoza may not play early half of season unless beats Cousins out in camp. Raiders spent big in free agency and O line should be better but still bad. Buy Bowers long-term. Monitor Mendoza development. Raiders will probably sign a veteran WR who could operate as WR1, either Jauan Jennings or Diggs or Tyreek Hill or Keenan Allen potentially. Tyreek Hill also an option. Mike Washington Jr will back up Ashton Jeanty. New HC Klint Kubiak former Seahawks OC should also boost offense creativity.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Kirk Cousins, avg 29.6 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.1 att/g; New OC Andrew Janocko — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Klint Kubiak.
| Projected carry share | 66.7% |
| Projected carries per game | 13.6 |
| Projected carries, full season | 231 |
| Last season, carries per game | 15.7 |
That is a reduction of 2.1 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 24.8 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: LV rates 19.6 against a league average of 23, 3.4 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -3.8 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -4.4 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | -4.4 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -2 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Ashton Jeanty study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +2.7% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 2021 | 17.7 | 66% | -14.8% |
| Breece Hall | 2023 | 17.1 | 55% | +2.9% |
| Bijan Robinson | 2024 | 20.1 | 54% | +35.6% |
| David Montgomery | 2020 | 17.7 | 49% | +15.1% |
| Rachaad White | 2023 | 15.8 | 47% | -22.6% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 1, pick 6 by LVR |
| College | Boise St. |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 5′9″ |
| Weight | 211 lb |
His best game was Week 4 against CHI — 33.5 PPR on 23 touches and a 10% target share, in a game that finished 24-25. His worst was Week 7 against KC at 4.4, on 7 touches, final score 0-31. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.7; in the 10 decided by more, 11.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 16.7 points per game. He scored 14.42, 13.5% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 2.13 expected, a gap of 1.9.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 20-13 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 38 | 1 | 6.1% | 86% |
| 2 | LAC | 9-20 | 7.4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 43 | 0 | 9.3% | 56% |
| 3 | WAS | 24-41 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 63 | 0 | 0% | 61% |
| 4 | CHI | 24-25 | 33.5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 21 | 138 | 3 | 10% | 85% |
| 5 | IND | 6-40 | 15.9 | 5 | 7 | 42 | 14 | 67 | 0 | 19.4% | 54% |
| 6 | TEN | 20-10 | 16.6 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 75 | 1 | 17.4% | 79% |
| 7 | KC | 0-31 | 4.4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 5.9% | 63% |
| 9 | JAX | 29-30 | 19.9 | 5 | 5 | 47 | 13 | 42 | 1 | 13.2% | 91% |
| 10 | DEN | 7-10 | 15.3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 60 | 1 | 20% | 87% |
| 11 | DAL | 16-33 | 9.4 | 6 | 8 | 27 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 20.5% | 73% |
| 12 | CLE | 10-24 | 24.8 | 8 | 8 | 58 | 17 | 50 | 1 | 19% | 81% |
| 13 | LAC | 14-31 | 12.1 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 15 | 31 | 0 | 36.4% | 96% |
| 14 | DEN | 17-24 | 5.8 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 30 | 0 | 14.3% | 70% |
| 15 | PHI | 0-31 | 8.2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 35 | 0 | 24% | 71% |
| 16 | HOU | 21-23 | 31.8 | 1 | 2 | 60 | 24 | 128 | 2 | 9.1% | 93% |
| 17 | NYG | 10-34 | 9.3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 16 | 60 | 0 | 7.1% | 81% |
| 18 | KC | 14-12 | 12.4 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 87 | 0 | 19.2% | 97% |
| Receptions | 55 |
| Targets | 73 |
| Receiving yards | 346 |
| Carries | 266 |
| Rushing yards | 975 |
| Touchdowns | 10 |
| Points per game | 14.42 |
| Yards per target | 4.74 |
| Catch rate | 75.34% |
| Yards per carry | 3.67 |
| Snap share | 77.88% |
| Target share | 14.76% |
| Air-yards share | -5.79% |
| WOPR | 0.181 |
| RACR | -0.74 |
| Average depth of target | -1.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.9 |
| Total YAC | 452 |
| Broken tackles | 8 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 96 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.7 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -3.83 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 16.7% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 73.9% |
| Goal-line carry share | 83.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.13 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.87 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 5.57 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 16 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 43 of 49 |
| Target share | 6 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 49 of 49 |
The offense threw it 515 times. He took 14.81% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tre Tucker | 18.66% |
| Brock Bowers | 17.44% |
| Ashton Jeanty ← | 14.81% |
| Michael Mayer | 10.14% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 9.94% |
| Tyler Lockett | 6.9% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 15 | 62 | 14.97 | 5.35 | 13.85% |
| Kenny Pickett | 1 | 6 | 8.2 | 1.17 | 24% |
| Aidan O'Connell | 1 | 5 | 12.4 | 1.4 | 19.2% |
7 of his 17 games were blowouts, 26.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.37 in those and 18.67 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Ashton Jeanty →