Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 10.93 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 85.5, usage worth 12.8.
29 years old · 7 seasons of experience · 2019 draft class
| SLEEPER | 87.4 |
| ESPN | 90.6 |
| YAHOO | 86.3 |
| UNDERDOG | 76.4 |
| CBS | 77.6 |
| FFA | 69 |
| Goes around | Round 8, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB28 |
| Bye week | 9 |
| ADP standard deviation | 5.6 picks |
Our board has him at 175.3 points, 11 per game — 845 rushing yards, 5.1 rushing TDs, 30.9 catches. That is RB4, 69 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 7.2 points per game to a ceiling of 16.5, with the median at 11. Boom rate 50%, bust rate 35%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 85.5 on consensus and our board has him 69. We rank him 16.5 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
Late-7th RB4 with a locked-in role on an ascending offense — lots of touches and TD chances; the rookie behind him isn't a real threat in a weak class.
like · medium conviction · 2026-06-05Tennessee Titans returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, te1, hc, oc. Cam Ward at quarterback, Robert Saleh as head coach, Brian Daboll calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 24.5 rushes.
In: Mitch Trubisky (qb2), Carnell Tate (wr1), Wan'Dale Robinson (wr2), Nicholas Singleton (rb3), Michael Carter (rb4), Daniel Bellinger (te2). Out: Tyler Lockett (wr4), Julius Chestnut (rb3), Chig Okonkwo (te1), Josh Whyle (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Tony Pollard ← | 54.2% |
| Tyjae Spears | 22.6% |
| Michael Carter | 16% |
| Nicholas Singleton | 7.2% |
What the offense looks like: It is an offense that could slowly be on the rise. It could QUICKLY be on the rise if Ward figures it out early in 2026 and could catch people off guard. Tate & Robinson are our primary targets. Ward is a great potential riser especially in SF. RB room is difficult to project, but Pollard it likely to be lead back in 2026 and could be a low end RB2 in fantasy.
Key additions: Titans HUGE adds to coaching staff that could turn this team aroud. HC Robert Saleh & former Giants (and QB whisperer) HC Brian Daboll head head to Tennessee and may a GREAT duo. Bring in WR Wan'Dale Robinson in free agency from NY (1000 yard slot WR last year) & draft WR Carnell Tate 4th overall. Beef up the O line with Austin Schlottmann & Volson. Drafted RB Nicholas Singleton in the 5th round (likely depth).
Key departures: HC Brian Callahan was fired after 1-5 start last season (ass) and this will be a huge help to the Titans offensive success. TE Chig Okonkwo left to Commanders in free agency
Notes: Titans draft Carnell Tate 1.04. Large potential for early breakout & Cam Ward to deliver at a high level. Calvin Ridley is trash but if Cam Ward can sling the rock could produce (we don't want to own Ridley). Ayomanor & Dike COULD be good if Ward produces but with Tate and Robinson around now will never be WR1 on the team. Could gain relevance though. Gunnar Helm entering 2nd year and should operate as TE1. Tony Pollard is aging & only has a few years left (not attractive to own). Tyjae Spears cannot stay healthy. Have to image the Titans will invest in another RB long term (Nicholas Singleton is probably not that guy either).
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Cam Ward returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Brian Daboll — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Robert Saleh.
| Projected carry share | 54.2% |
| Projected carries per game | 10.9 |
| Projected carries, full season | 185 |
| Last season, carries per game | 14.2 |
That is a reduction of 3.4 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 24.5 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: TEN rates 20.8 against a league average of 23, 2.2 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +2 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +5.8 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -4.8 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -5.4 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Tony Pollard study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -3.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 2024 | 15.8 | 57% | -20.4% |
| Devin Singletary | 2023 | 9.8 | 53% | -18.7% |
| Alexander Mattison | 2024 | 9.8 | 51% | -38.2% |
| D'Andre Swift | 2024 | 12.6 | 51% | +35.8% |
| Kareem Hunt | 2024 | 12 | 50% | -0.4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 3 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2019, round 4, pick 128 by DAL |
| College | Memphis |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′0″ |
| Weight | 210 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.52s |
| Vertical | 35″ |
| Broad jump | 121″ |
| Career PPR per game | 11.8 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 21.5% |
| Bust rate | 13.9% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.04 |
His best game was Week 14 against CLE — 28.1 PPR on 25 touches and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 31-29. His worst was Week 13 against JAX at 5.3, on 12 touches, final score 3-25. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12; in the 10 decided by more, 10.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 12.8 points per game. He scored 10.93, 14.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 12-20 | 7.9 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 18 | 60 | 0 | 4% | 89% |
| 2 | LA | 19-33 | 9.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 92 | 0 | 3.2% | 89% |
| 3 | IND | 20-41 | 13.9 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 45 | 1 | 11.8% | 91% |
| 4 | HOU | 0-26 | 10.6 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 64 | 0 | 13% | 86% |
| 5 | ARI | 22-21 | 14.8 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 67 | 1 | 8.1% | 73% |
| 6 | LV | 10-20 | 6.7 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 34 | 0 | 5.9% | 43% |
| 7 | NE | 13-31 | 12.1 | 6 | 6 | 43 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 18.8% | 57% |
| 8 | IND | 14-38 | 6.3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 44 | 0 | 5.4% | 46% |
| 9 | LAC | 20-27 | 7.8 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 56 | 0 | 9.5% | 62% |
| 11 | HOU | 13-16 | 5.6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 0 | 8.3% | 49% |
| 12 | SEA | 24-30 | 8.1 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 11 | 20 | 0 | 13.2% | 51% |
| 13 | JAX | 3-25 | 5.3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 60 | 0 | 5.7% | 46% |
| 14 | CLE | 31-29 | 28.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 161 | 2 | 0% | 59% |
| 15 | SF | 24-37 | 18.2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 104 | 1 | 7.4% | 53% |
| 16 | KC | 26-9 | 10.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 102 | 0 | 0% | 55% |
| 17 | NO | 26-34 | 11.5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 85 | 0 | 5.7% | 50% |
| 18 | JAX | 7-41 | 9.5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 14 | 48 | 0 | 9.1% | 63% |
| Receptions | 33 |
| Targets | 41 |
| Receiving yards | 206 |
| Carries | 242 |
| Rushing yards | 1,082 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 10.93 |
| Yards per target | 5.02 |
| Catch rate | 80.49% |
| Yards per carry | 4.47 |
| Snap share | 62.47% |
| Target share | 7.59% |
| Air-yards share | 0.06% |
| WOPR | 0.114 |
| RACR | -1.262 |
| Average depth of target | 0.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.1 |
| Total YAC | 203 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 77.4 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.7 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.28 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 2% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 45.2% |
| Goal-line carry share | 36.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.15 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.15 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.98 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 30 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 37 of 49 |
| Target share | 32 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 18 of 49 |
The offense threw it 570 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Elic Ayomanor | 16.82% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 14.93% |
| Chimere Dike | 13.99% |
| Gunnar Helm | 10.4% |
| Van Jefferson | 9.83% |
| Tyjae Spears | 9.45% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 16 | 38 | 11.02 | 4.97 | 7.5% |
| Brandon Allen | 1 | 3 | 9.5 | 5.67 | 9.1% |
7 of his 17 games were blowouts, 36.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.7 in those and 11.97 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 12 against HOU — 21.9 PPR on 29 touches and a 20% target share, in a game that finished 32-27. His worst was Week 11 against MIN at 4.9, on 13 touches, final score 13-23. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.3; in the 9 decided by more, 9.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 16 points per game. He scored 12.54, 21.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 17-24 | 18.4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 82 | 1 | 14.8% | 61% |
| 2 | NYJ | 17-24 | 15.2 | 5 | 6 | 40 | 17 | 62 | 0 | 22.2% | 67% |
| 3 | GB | 14-30 | 5.9 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 11.8% | 63% |
| 4 | MIA | 31-12 | 18.8 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 22 | 88 | 1 | 11.1% | 60% |
| 6 | IND | 17-20 | 17.8 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 17 | 93 | 1 | 11.1% | 74% |
| 7 | BUF | 10-34 | 8.5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 61 | 0 | 15.8% | 89% |
| 8 | DET | 14-52 | 14.7 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 94 | 0 | 10.5% | 82% |
| 9 | NE | 20-17 | 18.4 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 28 | 128 | 0 | 11.1% | 86% |
| 10 | LAC | 17-27 | 10.3 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 9 | 44 | 0 | 17.4% | 54% |
| 11 | MIN | 13-23 | 4.9 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 0 | 13.8% | 63% |
| 12 | HOU | 32-27 | 21.9 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 119 | 1 | 20% | 94% |
| 13 | WAS | 19-42 | 8.8 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 8 | 35 | 0 | 16.7% | 73% |
| 14 | JAX | 6-10 | 14.4 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 21 | 102 | 0 | 6.3% | 63% |
| 15 | CIN | 27-37 | 8.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 45 | 1 | 0% | 44% |
| 16 | IND | 30-38 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 35 | 0 | 12.1% | 39% |
| 18 | HOU | 14-23 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 62 | 0 | 0% | 73% |
| Receptions | 41 |
| Targets | 57 |
| Receiving yards | 238 |
| Carries | 260 |
| Rushing yards | 1,079 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 12.54 |
| Yards per target | 4.18 |
| Catch rate | 71.93% |
| Yards per carry | 4.15 |
| Snap share | 67.81% |
| Target share | 12.17% |
| Air-yards share | -0.79% |
| WOPR | 0.177 |
| RACR | 0.422 |
| Average depth of target | 0.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.4 |
| Total YAC | 221 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 72.1 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.9 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.63 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.3% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 55% |
| Goal-line carry share | 50% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.6 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.6 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 4.1 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 23 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 38 of 46 |
| Target share | 8 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 25 of 46 |
The offense threw it 530 times. He took 11.26% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Calvin Ridley | 23.72% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 13.83% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 11.86% |
| Tyler Boyd | 11.26% |
| Tony Pollard ← | 11.26% |
| Josh Whyle | 7.31% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 10 | 38 | 12.38 | 4.21 | 13.41% |
| Mason Rudolph | 6 | 19 | 12.82 | 4.11 | 10.1% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 25.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.7 in those and 16.3 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 12 against WAS — 22.3 PPR on 19 touches and a 18.8% target share, in a game that finished 45-10. His worst was Week 16 against MIA at 5.3, on 13 touches, final score 20-22. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11; in the 12 decided by more, 14. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 15.2 points per game. He scored 13.09, 10.5% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 2.2 expected, a gap of -2.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 40-0 | 22.2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 70 | 2 | 12% | 64% |
| 2 | NYJ | 30-10 | 19.9 | 7 | 8 | 37 | 25 | 72 | 0 | 21.6% | 64% |
| 3 | ARI | 16-28 | 15.1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 23 | 122 | 0 | 8.1% | 86% |
| 4 | NE | 38-3 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 47 | 0 | 8.3% | 53% |
| 5 | SF | 10-42 | 8.4 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 19.2% | 69% |
| 6 | LAC | 20-17 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 80 | 15 | 30 | 0 | 23.3% | 80% |
| 8 | LA | 43-20 | 6.5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 53 | 0 | 2.9% | 65% |
| 9 | PHI | 23-28 | 9.3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 51 | 0 | 11.4% | 77% |
| 10 | NYG | 49-17 | 5.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 55 | 0 | 0% | 69% |
| 11 | CAR | 33-10 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 12 | 61 | 1 | 12.5% | 63% |
| 12 | WAS | 45-10 | 22.3 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 13 | 79 | 1 | 18.8% | 76% |
| 13 | SEA | 41-35 | 17.3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 20 | 68 | 1 | 10% | 78% |
| 14 | PHI | 33-13 | 16.6 | 7 | 8 | 37 | 16 | 59 | 0 | 20.5% | 72% |
| 15 | BUF | 10-31 | 7.7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 52 | 0 | 9.4% | 72% |
| 16 | MIA | 20-22 | 5.3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 38 | 0 | 3.1% | 70% |
| 17 | DET | 20-19 | 5.9 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 49 | 0 | 8.1% | 85% |
| 18 | WAS | 38-10 | 16.6 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 17 | 70 | 1 | 5% | 57% |
| Receptions | 55 |
| Targets | 67 |
| Receiving yards | 311 |
| Carries | 252 |
| Rushing yards | 1,005 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 13.09 |
| Yards per target | 4.64 |
| Catch rate | 82.09% |
| Yards per carry | 3.99 |
| Snap share | 70.59% |
| Target share | 11.42% |
| Air-yards share | 0.68% |
| WOPR | 0.176 |
| RACR | 1.783 |
| Average depth of target | 0.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.2 |
| Total YAC | 321 |
| Broken tackles | 14 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 86 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.26 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.99 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 11.7% |
| End-zone target share | 3.5% |
| Red-zone carry share | 56.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 62.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.2 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -2.2 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 10.79 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 23 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 38 of 49 |
| Target share | 17 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 6 of 49 |
The offense threw it 614 times. He took 11.07% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| CeeDee Lamb | 29.92% |
| Jake Ferguson | 16.86% |
| Brandin Cooks | 13.39% |
| Tony Pollard ← | 11.07% |
| Michael Gallup | 9.42% |
| Jalen Tolbert | 5.95% |
11 of his 17 games were blowouts, 68.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.88 in those and 10.96 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 11 against MIN — 36.9 PPR on 21 touches and a 20% target share, in a game that finished 40-3. His worst was Week 4 against WAS at 1.8, on 11 touches, final score 25-10. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.9; in the 9 decided by more, 15.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 12.5 points per game. He scored 15.55, 18.2% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.01 expected, a gap of -1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 3-19 | 4.2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 4.9% | 55% |
| 2 | CIN | 20-17 | 19.8 | 4 | 7 | 55 | 9 | 43 | 1 | 23.3% | 39% |
| 3 | NYG | 23-16 | 10.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 105 | 0 | 3.3% | 44% |
| 4 | WAS | 25-10 | 1.8 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 11.5% | 39% |
| 5 | LA | 22-10 | 14.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 86 | 1 | 0% | 42% |
| 6 | PHI | 17-26 | 7.2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 44 | 0 | 8.1% | 40% |
| 7 | DET | 24-6 | 12.9 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 83 | 0 | 8% | 65% |
| 8 | CHI | 49-29 | 33.7 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 14 | 131 | 3 | 3.8% | 53% |
| 10 | GB | 28-31 | 21.8 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 22 | 115 | 1 | 13.6% | 87% |
| 11 | MIN | 40-3 | 36.9 | 6 | 6 | 109 | 15 | 80 | 2 | 20% | 54% |
| 12 | NYG | 28-20 | 8.1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 60 | 0 | 6.9% | 59% |
| 13 | IND | 54-19 | 24.6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 91 | 2 | 10% | 41% |
| 14 | HOU | 27-23 | 22.2 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 10 | 42 | 2 | 12.8% | 58% |
| 15 | JAX | 34-40 | 14.6 | 4 | 5 | 31 | 19 | 75 | 0 | 16.7% | 55% |
| 16 | PHI | 40-34 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 61 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 22.9% | 53% |
| 18 | WAS | 6-26 | 1.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 2.8% | 43% |
| Receptions | 39 |
| Targets | 55 |
| Receiving yards | 371 |
| Carries | 193 |
| Rushing yards | 1,007 |
| Touchdowns | 12 |
| Points per game | 15.55 |
| Yards per target | 6.75 |
| Catch rate | 70.91% |
| Yards per carry | 5.22 |
| Snap share | 51.69% |
| Target share | 10.54% |
| Air-yards share | 1.93% |
| WOPR | 0.173 |
| RACR | 3.518 |
| Average depth of target | 1.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.6 |
| Total YAC | 347 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 107.5 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.39 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.28 |
| Red-zone targets | 9 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.6% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 29.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 23.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.01 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.01 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 4.41 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 8 of 42 |
| Yards per target | 7 of 42 |
| Target share | 13 of 42 |
| Air-yards share | 4 of 42 |
The offense threw it 556 times. He took 10.09% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| CeeDee Lamb | 28.62% |
| Dalton Schultz | 16.33% |
| Noah Brown | 13.58% |
| Michael Gallup | 13.58% |
| Tony Pollard ← | 10.09% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 4.22% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 11 | 41 | 17.72 | 7.46 | 11.13% |
| Cooper Rush | 5 | 14 | 10.78 | 4.64 | 9.24% |
5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 44.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 22 in those and 15.86 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 2 against LAC — 23 PPR on 16 touches and a 11.1% target share, in a game that finished 20-17. His worst was Week 8 against MIN at 3.7, on 8 touches, final score 20-16. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.9; in the 8 decided by more, 10.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 9.8 points per game. He scored 10.84, 6.5% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 29-31 | 8.3 | 4 | 4 | 29 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 7% | 24% |
| 2 | LAC | 20-17 | 23 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 13 | 109 | 1 | 11.1% | 34% |
| 3 | PHI | 41-21 | 7.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 60 | 0 | 4% | 38% |
| 4 | CAR | 36-28 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 67 | 0 | 0% | 30% |
| 5 | NYG | 44-20 | 14.3 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 14 | 75 | 0 | 12.5% | 40% |
| 6 | NE | 35-29 | 9.3 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 10 | 41 | 0 | 6.1% | 29% |
| 8 | MIN | 20-16 | 3.7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 2.4% | 26% |
| 9 | DEN | 16-30 | 5.3 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 5.1% | 39% |
| 10 | ATL | 43-3 | 15.8 | 6 | 7 | 56 | 11 | 42 | 0 | 21.2% | 42% |
| 11 | KC | 9-19 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 7 | 50 | 0 | 4.8% | 33% |
| 12 | LV | 33-36 | 16.8 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 10 | 36 | 0 | 8.5% | 42% |
| 13 | NO | 27-17 | 15.4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 71 | 1 | 10% | 40% |
| 15 | NYG | 21-6 | 11.7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 74 | 0 | 8.1% | 41% |
| 16 | WAS | 56-14 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 8 | 34 | 0 | 7.3% | 34% |
| 17 | ARI | 22-25 | 8.8 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 13.2% | 30% |
| Receptions | 39 |
| Targets | 46 |
| Receiving yards | 337 |
| Carries | 130 |
| Rushing yards | 719 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 10.84 |
| Yards per target | 7.33 |
| Catch rate | 84.78% |
| Yards per carry | 5.53 |
| Snap share | 34.8% |
| Target share | 8.09% |
| Air-yards share | 0.1% |
| WOPR | 0.122 |
| RACR | -1.397 |
| Average depth of target | 0.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.1 |
| Total YAC | 341 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 97.2 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.46 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.86 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.3% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 22.7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 8.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.99 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.99 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.69 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 32 of 50 |
| Yards per target | 8 of 50 |
| Target share | 26 of 50 |
| Air-yards share | 22 of 50 |
The offense threw it 647 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| CeeDee Lamb | 18.87% |
| Amari Cooper | 16.35% |
| Dalton Schultz | 16.35% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 10.22% |
| Michael Gallup | 9.75% |
| Cedrick Wilson | 9.59% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 14 | 45 | 11.35 | 7.47 | 8.49% |
| Cooper Rush | 1 | 1 | 3.7 | 1 | 2.4% |
4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 27.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.15 in those and 10.94 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 15 against SF — 31.2 PPR on 21 touches and a 28.1% target share, in a game that finished 41-33. His worst was Week 3 against SEA at 0.5, on 1 touches, final score 31-38. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.7; in the 8 decided by more, 6.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7.8 points per game. He scored 7.55, 3.4% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 17-20 | 5.2 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 8.1% | 14% |
| 2 | ATL | 40-39 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2.1% | 10% |
| 3 | SEA | 31-38 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8% | 7% |
| 4 | CLE | 38-49 | 10.2 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 3.4% | 27% |
| 5 | NYG | 37-34 | 5.2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 9.1% | 23% |
| 6 | ARI | 10-38 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 31 | 0 | 7.7% | 36% |
| 7 | WAS | 3-25 | 3.2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 4.8% | 33% |
| 8 | PHI | 9-23 | 8.4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 7 | 40 | 0 | 5.3% | 22% |
| 9 | PIT | 19-24 | 6.8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 57 | 0 | 5.4% | 32% |
| 11 | MIN | 31-28 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 60 | 1 | 0% | 32% |
| 12 | WAS | 16-41 | 4.2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 5.9% | 36% |
| 13 | BAL | 17-34 | 3.8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 2.2% | 39% |
| 14 | CIN | 30-7 | 12.8 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 39 | 1 | 9.1% | 37% |
| 15 | SF | 41-33 | 31.2 | 6 | 9 | 63 | 12 | 69 | 2 | 28.1% | 90% |
| 16 | PHI | 37-17 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 6.7% | 47% |
| 17 | NYG | 19-23 | 6.4 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 11.4% | 41% |
| Receptions | 28 |
| Targets | 40 |
| Receiving yards | 193 |
| Carries | 101 |
| Rushing yards | 435 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 7.55 |
| Yards per target | 4.83 |
| Catch rate | 70% |
| Yards per carry | 4.31 |
| Snap share | 32.88% |
| Target share | 6.94% |
| Air-yards share | -0.27% |
| WOPR | 0.102 |
| RACR | -0.119 |
| Average depth of target | -0.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.4 |
| Total YAC | 232 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 88.9 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.28 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.16 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.8% |
| End-zone target share | 3% |
| Red-zone carry share | 20% |
| Goal-line carry share | 8.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.48 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.48 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.92 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 41 of 47 |
| Yards per target | 35 of 47 |
| Target share | 27 of 47 |
| Air-yards share | 30 of 47 |
The offense threw it 638 times. He took 6.51% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Amari Cooper | 21.17% |
| CeeDee Lamb | 18.08% |
| Michael Gallup | 17.1% |
| Dalton Schultz | 14.5% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 11.56% |
| Tony Pollard ← | 6.51% |
He caught passes from 4 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 9 | 26 | 9.18 | 5 | 8.43% |
| Dak Prescott | 5 | 10 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 4.9% |
| Ben DiNucci | 1 | 2 | 8.4 | 12 | 5.3% |
| Garrett Gilbert | 1 | 2 | 6.8 | 0.5 | 5.4% |
6 of his 16 games were blowouts, 27.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.5 in those and 8.65 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Tony Pollard →