AJ Barner
Overview
Board Oct 12Week 5 rest-of-season review, Oct 12, 2026. The three reads are where our backtested model, the betting market and his 2026 production each place him at TE; our board rank is the call.
Where his stats say he could finish from here: TE22 to TE34. Our rank stays the call.
2026 so far5 games
- 89% of snaps (3rd of 48 TEs)
- 4% of SEA's air yards (43rd of 48 TEs)
- -0.39 EPA a target (44th of 48 TEs)
Ranked among 48 qualified TEs this season.
80% range 3.1–9.3 half-PPR points a game. Biggest inputs: 2025 PPG +0.3, trade value now +0.3, team play volume -0.2, Week 5 sportsbook lines +0.1. The model informs the rank; it does not set it.
Week 6
Lines Oct 14SEA
DENUpdated Oct 14, 2026, built on a SEA team total of 21.75. Rank is among every TE we project this week.
Allowed to TEs per game across 5 games. Best games against them: Tyler Higbee (W3, 20.2 PPR, 8/11 62 yds); George Kittle (W4, 17 PPR, 4/6 70 yds); Travis Kelce (W1, 10.1 PPR, 3/5 71 yds).
EPA ranks entering Week 6: #4 against the pass, #28 against the run (1 = best defense).
Big number: receiving fantasy points DEN allows a game to TEs in that zone. # = its rank of 32. Green tag = AJ Barner's share of his targets in that zone this season. Depth is air yards at the catch point; 5 games, through Week 5. Tap a zone for the detail.
3-20 rec on 5 tgt
Game log
2026 · through W5Every gametap a game for the detail
SEA -3 (closing) · total 44.5 · 74°F, wind 6 mph · 7 days rest · prime time · Injury report: practice FP
Projected 6.0 (TE23) · SEA -3.5 (closing) · total 40.5 · indoors · 11 days rest · division game
Projected 5.5 (TE27) · SEA -8.5 (closing) · total 40.5 · 63°F, wind 13 mph · 7 days rest
Projected 6.3 (TE22) · SEA -7 (closing) · total 42.5 · 63°F, wind 3 mph · 7 days rest
Projected 5.6 (TE27) · SEA -3 (closing) · total 46.5 · 7 days rest · division game
D# = the opponent's rank against TEs entering that week (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest). Finish = his rank at TE that week.
Usage
What changedlast 3 full games vs. before
| W1, W2 | W3, W4, W5 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 84.0% | 92.0% | +8.0 |
| Target share | 6.1% | 17.8% | +11.7 |
| Air-yard share | -28.2% | 6.2% | +34.4 |
| Targets a game | 1.5 | 5.7 | +4.2 |
Games he left injured are left out of both sides.
SEA target treeshare of team targets, 2026
Season to date, games each player played.
Role details2026, through Week 5
Advanced
Percentile against the TEs on our charts (each stat's minimum is next to it), 2026 through Week 5. 50 is the middle of the pack. Tap a bubble for his rank.
Expected vs. actualPPR, from this season's play-by-play
1 TDs on 1.72 expected. Expected points price every target by depth and field position and every carry by field position. Do touchdowns regress? ›
Leaderboardstop 10 among TEs, 2026
Splits
As a receiver2026 charted plays, through Week 5
| Situation | Tgt | Rec-Yds-TD | Yds/tgt | EPA/tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All targets | 20 | 12-122-0 | 6.17.1 | -0.390.25 |
| Red zone25% of targets | 5 | 3-32-0 | 6.44.6 | -0.310.61 |
| Inside the 1010% of targets | 2 | 0-0-0 | 0.03.1 | -1.950.68 |
| Third down10% of targets | 2 | 0-0-0 | 0.06.6 | -1.160.21 |
| Score within 785% of targets | 17 | 9-97-0 | 5.77.0 | -0.550.22 |
| Trailing by 8+10% of targets | 2 | 2-13-0 | 6.56.7 | 0.370.20 |
| Leading by 8+5% of targets | 1 | 1-12-0 | 12.08.9 | 0.800.54 |
| Two-minute drill25% of targets | 5 | 2-16-0 | 3.26.4 | -0.720.23 |
| Vs. the blitz65% of targets | 13 | 8-93-0 | 7.26.8 | 0.290.20 |
| No blitz35% of targets | 7 | 4-29-0 | 4.17.2 | -1.660.27 |
| Play action45% of targets | 9 | 6-57-0 | 6.37.3 | -0.550.25 |
| With motion70% of targets | 14 | 8-100-0 | 7.17.4 | 0.080.29 |
| Screens15% of targets | 3 | 2-47-0 | 15.75.8 | 0.920.03 |
Small grey number = every TE in that situation. Green or red = a clear gap either way. 17 of his 20 charted targets were catchable; 3 drops, 1 of 5 contested caught.
Against coverage2024-2025 (2026 is not charted per player)
| Coverage | Tgt | Yds/tgt | Caught | EPA/tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man | 31 | 9.7 | 87% | +0.51 |
| Zone | 82 | 6.5 | 74% | +0.37 |
| Cover 2 | 34 | 6.2 | 74% | +0.36 |
| Cover 3 | 23 | 6.7 | 70% | +0.24 |
| Cover 1 | 18 | 10.3 | 100% | +0.89 |
Team
SEASeattle Seahawks offense, 2026 through Week 5. Rank 1 = most. Scheme rates from FTN charting through Week 5.
Game by gamescore, implied total, pass rate (over expected), QB
| Week | Score | Implied | Pass rate | QB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs NE | 13-10 | 23.8 | 55%−7.6 | Lock22 att |
| W2vs ARI | 31-7 | 22.0 | 40%−11.8 | Lock26 att |
| W3vs WAS | 31-33 | 24.5 | 72%+7.4 | Darnold45 att |
| W4vs LAC | 30-23 | 24.8 | 45%−10.7 | Darnold22 att |
| W5vs SF | 29-32 | 24.8 | 57%−7.2 | Darnold29 att |
Depth chartTE, Oct 14
Scheduleeach defense's current rank vs TEs
Green = soft, red = stingy (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest), ranked on fantasy points allowed to TEs so far. Gold underline = fantasy playoffs. Does strength of schedule matter? ›
Head coach: Mike Macdonald. QB: Sam Darnold (most pass attempts, Week 5).
Charts
AJ Barner is highlighted on each chart. Swipe for more; tap a dot for the player. Every chart saves and shares as an image on the Charts page.
Career
Season by season
| Year | G | Rec-Yds-TD | Pts/g | xFP/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026SEA | 5 | 12-122-020 tgt, 13.1% share | 4.9TE35 | 7.3−6.4 |
| 2025SEA | 17 | 52-519-668 tgt, 14.1% share, routes 82% | 7.1TE22 | 6.8+30.0 |
| 2024SEA | 15 | 30-245-438 tgt, 8.5% share, routes 36% | 4.2TE38 | 4.8+11.2 |
Under points a game: his rank at TE in points a game (8+ games; 2026: 2+ games). xFP = expected PPR a game from his usage; under it, the season's points over expected. Routes = share of team dropbacks he ran a route (through 2025).
Red zone and touchdowns
| 2025 | 3 RZ car (3%), 1 inside 5, 1 rush TD vs 0.6 exp · 16 RZ tgt (20%), 6 end-zone, 6 rec TD vs 4.0 exp |
| 2024 | 7 RZ tgt (12%), 2 end-zone, 4 rec TD vs 2.2 exp |
Floor and ceilingPPR
1 of his last 32 games reached 20 PPR; 22 finished under 10. Is there a floor-vs-ceiling trade-off? ›
Every game since 2024
2025 game log 17 games · SEA · 8.7 PPR a game
| Game | Line | Snaps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs SF · D7 | 1-0 on 2 tgt · 1-2 rush | 85% | 0.7 |
| W2@ PIT · D26 | 2-26-1 on 3 tgt · 1-2 rush | 89% | 9.8 |
| W3vs NO · D12 | 1-23 on 1 tgt | 54% | 2.8 |
| W4@ ARI · D21 | 3-32-1 on 3 tgt | 86% | 10.7 |
| W5vs TB · D16 | 7-53-2 on 7 tgt | 80% | 20.8 |
| W6@ JAX · D14 | 3-71 on 3 tgt | 78% | 8.6 |
| W7vs HOU · D6 | 1-7 on 3 tgt · 1-2 rush | 86% | 1.4 |
| W9@ WAS · D25 | 3-24 on 4 tgt · 1-1-1 rush | 84% | 10.0 |
| W10vs ARI · D25 | 2-3 rush | 37% | 0.3 |
| W11@ LA · D20 | 10-70 on 11 tgt · 2-1 rush | 87% | 12.1 |
| W12@ TEN · D11 | 2-18 on 4 tgt | 79% | 2.8 |
| W13vs MIN · D21 | 4-35 on 5 tgt · 1-2 rush | 85% | 5.7 |
| W14@ ATL · D2 | 3-27 on 4 tgt | 67% | 4.2 |
| W15vs IND · D26 | 3-27 on 6 tgt | 83% | 4.2 |
| W16vs LA · D12 | 4-49-1 on 6 tgt · 1-1 rush | 94% | 13.0 |
| W17@ CAR · D17 | 3-43-1 on 3 tgt | 79% | 11.8 |
| W18@ SF · D24 | 2-14 on 3 tgt | 61% | 2.4 |
2024 game log 15 games · SEA · 5.2 PPR a game
| Game | Line | Snaps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| W2@ NE · D2 | no stats | 36% | 0.0 |
| W3vs MIA · D25 | 3-13 on 3 tgt | 28% | 2.8 |
| W4@ DET · D5 | 2-27-1 on 2 tgt | 39% | 9.7 |
| W5vs NYG · D17 | 1-13 on 1 tgt | 26% | 1.8 |
| W6vs SF · D11 | 1-13 on 1 tgt | 31% | 1.8 |
| W7@ ATL · D18 | 1-5 on 1 tgt | 40% | 1.0 |
| W8vs BUF · D16 | 2-34 on 2 tgt | 37% | 4.4 |
| W9vs LA · D30 | 4-27 on 7 tgt | 91% | 4.7 |
| W11@ SF · D11 | 2-15 on 4 tgt | 85% | 2.5 |
| W12vs ARI · D9 | 3-19 on 4 tgt | 84% | 3.4 |
| W13@ NYJ · D5 | 2-14-1 on 2 tgt | 41% | 8.4 |
| W14@ ARI · D8 | 1-13 on 1 tgt | 38% | 1.8 |
| W15vs GB · D25 | 1-5 on 3 tgt | 29% | 1.0 |
| W16vs MIN · D12 | 2-13-1 on 2 tgt | 30% | 8.3 |
| W18@ LA · D27 | 5-34-1 on 5 tgt | 56% | 11.9 |
Health
No injury designation. Not on the Sleeper injury list as of Oct 10 and not on the Week 6 practice report so far.
2026 injury reportofficial, week by week
✓ = not listed. Letters = game status (Q, D, O) or worst practice that week (LP limited, DNP did not practice). Tap a week for the detail.
Historyofficial injury reports since 2020
| Year | Weeks listed | Ruled out | Listed for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6 | 0 | Calf (2), Elbow (2), Knee, Ankle |
| 2024 | 1 | 0 | Shoulder |
0 games missed 2023–25 (0.00 a season).
8 report weeks over 2 seasons; recurring: Shoulder, Calf, Knee, Ankle, Elbow. Risk label: low.
Teammates on the report
Our current notes first, then Sleeper designations. What happens when a starter is ruled out? ›
Value
Market Oct 10Market value on a 0–10,000 scale, through Oct 10, 2026. Faint stretches are estimates between real readings. Gold = peak.
Teal dot = today (3,558). Box = the middle half of outcomes, white line = the median, whiskers = 10th to 90th percentile. TEs about 24 valued near #150 overall: real 1-year moves since 2022, weighted by exact age and market rank (about 50 players' worth).
Risk profilepreseason, from comparable players
2017 Austin Hooper (51% match). He went from 7.0 to 10.2 PPR a game the next year (TE2→TE1). His dynasty value moved 0.0% over the next 12 months.
161.2 overall, TE24. Yahoo 126.7 · ESPN 168.8 · Underdog 176.0 · Sleeper 188.0
Profile
Athletic profilepercentile vs TEs at the combine since 2010
College production
| Year | G | Rec-Yds-TD | Yds share | Dominator |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Michigan | 10 | 22-249-1 | 11.9% | 9.1 |
| 2022Indiana | 10 | 27-193-3 | 9.2% | 17.1 |
| 2021Indiana | 9 | 14-162-1 | 10.1% | 13.4 |
| 2020Indiana | 2 | 0-0-0 | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Share = his share of his team's receiving yards. Dominator = average of his share of receiving yards and TDs.