Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 9.89 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 117, usage worth 12.4.
31 years old · 9 seasons of experience · 2017 draft class
| SLEEPER | 115.5 |
| ESPN | 123.5 |
| YAHOO | 121.3 |
| UNDERDOG | 126 |
| CBS | 107.5 |
| FFA | 124 |
| Goes around | Round 10, pick 9 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB37 |
| Bye week | 6 |
| ADP standard deviation | 7.1 picks |
Our board has him at 119.6 points, 7.5 per game — 564 rushing yards, 2.6 rushing TDs, 22.5 catches. That is RB5, 125 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 4.8 points per game to a ceiling of 13.6, with the median at 7.5. Boom rate 81%, bust rate 36%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 117 on consensus and our board has him 125. We rank him 8 picks worse than the room drafts him, so at ADP he is mildly overpriced. That is an objection to the price and not to the player — if he falls past his slot he can be exactly the right pick.
8-year-lows across the board in efficiency, lost RZ work to Jordan Mason, aging cliff (32 in Dec.), no realistic path to being startable
sell · high conviction · 2026-08Minnesota Vikings returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1. Kyler Murray at quarterback, Kevin O'Connell as head coach, Wes Phillips calling it. The offense projects to 32.6 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 25 rushes.
In: Kyler Murray (qb), Dontae Fleming (wr5), Dillon Bell (wr7), Desmond Claiborne (rb3). Out: Carson Wentz (qb), Jalen Nailor (wr3), Adam Thielen (wr4).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Aaron Jones ← | 49.2% |
| Jordan Mason | 34.4% |
| Zavier Scott | 8.3% |
| Desmond Claiborne | 8.2% |
What the offense looks like: Jefferson and Addison have all the talent in the world they & KOC is an elite coach, but this team needs to feed them. This RB room struggled last year. Difficult to say if Aaron Jones & Jordan mason regressed or if teams just focused on stopping the run to force JJ McCarthy to throw them another Pick 6. Either way, running game has to get established in 2026. Likely a committee as Aaron Jones was expected to be cut but took a pay cut to come back.
Key additions: Kyler Murray QB from Cardinals (former 1st overall pick).
Key departures: Jalen Nailor WR3 left to Raiders in free agency. Pretty solid loss that opens up a decent target
Notes: Jefferson dynasty cornerstone regardless of QB. Vikings sign Kyler Murray from Cardinals who is looking to turn around career. Kyler will compete with McCarthy for QB1 spot but JJ Nine McCarthy is BOOTY CHEEKS, so Kyler will start & could elevate offense a lot. Jefferson long term value there regardless of QB, Addison is great WR but volume still isnt there, interesting buy if can get him for cheap. Aaron Jones may phase out and took a pay cut to stay. Mason is mid. Rookie RB Claiborne COULD build out a role if he can beat out Mason. Hockenson should be better than last year but his play has declined a lot.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Kyler Murray, avg 32 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.6 att/g.
| Projected carry share | 49.2% |
| Projected carries per game | 10.1 |
| Projected carries, full season | 171 |
| Last season, carries per game | 11 |
That is a reduction of 0.9 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 25 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: MIN rates 22.2 against a league average of 23, 0.8 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +1.2 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +0.4 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | +4.1 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +10.5 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2 | A.J. Dillon | +3.4 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -21.3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2023 | 10.3 | 45% | -69.6% |
| Kareem Hunt | 2024 | 12 | 45% | -0.4% |
| Austin Ekeler | 2024 | 11 | 42% | -69.3% |
| David Montgomery | 2024 | 15.8 | 42% | -20.4% |
| Alexander Mattison | 2024 | 9.8 | 41% | -38.2% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 0 gained value, 4 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2017, round 5, pick 182 by GNB |
| College | Texas-El Paso |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 5′9″ |
| Weight | 208 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.56s |
| Vertical | 37.5″ |
| Broad jump | 127″ |
| 3-cone | 6.82s |
| Shuttle | 4.2s |
| Career PPR per game | 13.6 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.4 |
| Boom rate | 17.6% |
| Bust rate | 13.2% |
| Games missed per season | 0.8 |
| Injury history | Calf, Knee, Hip |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.32 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 10 against BAL — 15.9 PPR on 15 touches and a 14.6% target share, in a game that finished 19-27. His worst was Week 2 against ATL at 2.3, on 6 touches, final score 6-22. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.5; in the 6 decided by more, 7.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 12.4 points per game. He scored 9.89, 19.9% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 27-24 | 15.7 | 3 | 3 | 44 | 8 | 23 | 1 | 15% | 50% |
| 2 | ATL | 6-22 | 2.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 4.8% | 43% |
| 8 | LAC | 10-37 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 13.3% | 53% |
| 9 | DET | 27-24 | 11.8 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 78 | 0 | 8.7% | 42% |
| 10 | BAL | 19-27 | 15.9 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 9 | 47 | 1 | 14.6% | 71% |
| 11 | CHI | 17-19 | 11.1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 70 | 0 | 18.8% | 67% |
| 12 | GB | 6-23 | 8.7 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 9 | 41 | 0 | 22.2% | 66% |
| 13 | SEA | 0-26 | 4.5 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 13.8% | 37% |
| 14 | WAS | 31-0 | 7.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 76 | 0 | 4.3% | 45% |
| 15 | DAL | 34-26 | 9.5 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 12 | 34 | 0 | 12.5% | 58% |
| 16 | NYG | 16-13 | 11.3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 85 | 0 | 13% | 64% |
| 17 | DET | 23-10 | 15.3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 53 | 1 | 28.6% | 65% |
| Receptions | 28 |
| Targets | 41 |
| Receiving yards | 199 |
| Carries | 132 |
| Rushing yards | 548 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 9.89 |
| Yards per target | 4.85 |
| Catch rate | 68.29% |
| Yards per carry | 4.15 |
| Snap share | 55.08% |
| Target share | 14.13% |
| Air-yards share | -1.26% |
| WOPR | 0.204 |
| RACR | 1.036 |
| Average depth of target | -0.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1 |
| Total YAC | 227 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 87.3 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.63 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.2 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.8% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 24.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 20% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.75 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.75 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.95 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 32 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 39 of 49 |
| Target share | 8 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 35 of 49 |
The offense threw it 484 times. He took 8.8% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Justin Jefferson | 30.26% |
| Jordan Addison | 16.95% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 14.16% |
| Jalen Nailor | 11.37% |
| Aaron Jones ← | 8.8% |
| Josh Oliver | 4.08% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 9 | 29 | 10.43 | 5.24 | 12.66% |
| Max Brosmer | 2 | 8 | 9.9 | 4 | 21.2% |
| Carson Wentz | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3.75 | 13.3% |
4 of his 12 games were blowouts, 21.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.45 in those and 12.55 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 3 against HOU — 25.8 PPR on 25 touches and a 24% target share, in a game that finished 34-7. His worst was Week 11 against TEN at 5.3, on 16 touches, final score 23-13. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.3; in the 7 decided by more, 15.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 15.5 points per game. He scored 14.21, 10% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 4.4 expected, a gap of -2.4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 28-6 | 18.9 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 14 | 94 | 1 | 8.7% | 55% |
| 2 | SF | 23-17 | 9.8 | 5 | 6 | 36 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 25% | 61% |
| 3 | HOU | 34-7 | 25.8 | 5 | 6 | 46 | 19 | 102 | 1 | 24% | 60% |
| 4 | GB | 31-29 | 17.9 | 4 | 5 | 46 | 22 | 93 | 0 | 18.5% | 82% |
| 5 | NYJ | 23-17 | 6.3 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 3.6% | 22% |
| 7 | DET | 29-31 | 20.6 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 14 | 93 | 1 | 11.5% | 72% |
| 8 | LA | 20-30 | 11.5 | 2 | 2 | 37 | 19 | 58 | 0 | 8.7% | 92% |
| 9 | IND | 21-13 | 12.2 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 21 | 64 | 0 | 12.1% | 75% |
| 10 | JAX | 12-7 | 12.1 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 17 | 88 | 0 | 8.1% | 52% |
| 11 | TEN | 23-13 | 5.3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 39 | 0 | 3.3% | 53% |
| 12 | CHI | 30-27 | 19.9 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 22 | 106 | 1 | 12.5% | 79% |
| 13 | ARI | 23-22 | 9.8 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 13.3% | 53% |
| 14 | ATL | 42-21 | 16.4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 73 | 1 | 7.1% | 63% |
| 15 | CHI | 30-12 | 18.6 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 18 | 86 | 1 | 8.1% | 61% |
| 16 | SEA | 27-24 | 12.3 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 18 | 67 | 0 | 14.3% | 82% |
| 17 | GB | 27-25 | 11.7 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 12 | 47 | 0 | 12.2% | 51% |
| 18 | DET | 9-31 | 12.5 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 10 | 45 | 0 | 15.8% | 62% |
| Receptions | 51 |
| Targets | 62 |
| Receiving yards | 408 |
| Carries | 255 |
| Rushing yards | 1,138 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 14.21 |
| Yards per target | 6.58 |
| Catch rate | 82.26% |
| Yards per carry | 4.46 |
| Snap share | 63.24% |
| Target share | 12.16% |
| Air-yards share | 0.72% |
| WOPR | 0.188 |
| RACR | -0.628 |
| Average depth of target | 0.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.1 |
| Total YAC | 411 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 98.1 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.19 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.79 |
| Red-zone targets | 19 |
| Red-zone target share | 20.4% |
| End-zone target share | 2.8% |
| Red-zone carry share | 63.2% |
| Goal-line carry share | 65% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.4 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -2.4 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 7.76 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 20 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 15 of 46 |
| Target share | 9 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 7 of 46 |
The offense threw it 548 times. He took 12.13% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Justin Jefferson | 30.14% |
| Jordan Addison | 19.37% |
| Aaron Jones ← | 12.13% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 12.13% |
| Jalen Nailor | 8.22% |
| Josh Oliver | 5.48% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 38.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.44 in those and 13.26 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 1 against CHI — 26.7 PPR on 13 touches and a 14.8% target share, in a game that finished 38-20. His worst was Week 4 against DET at 2.4, on 7 touches, final score 20-34. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.9; in the 6 decided by more, 13.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 14 points per game. He scored 12.26, 0.5% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 2.06 expected, a gap of -2.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 38-20 | 26.7 | 2 | 4 | 86 | 9 | 41 | 2 | 14.8% | 47% |
| 4 | DET | 20-34 | 2.4 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 5.9% | 35% |
| 7 | DEN | 17-19 | 8.7 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 8 | 35 | 0 | 15.6% | 36% |
| 8 | MIN | 10-24 | 8.6 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 12.5% | 51% |
| 9 | LA | 20-3 | 17.9 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 20 | 73 | 1 | 24% | 57% |
| 10 | PIT | 19-23 | 9.4 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 13 | 35 | 0 | 16.2% | 56% |
| 11 | LAC | 23-20 | 2.7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 5.3% | 21% |
| 15 | TB | 20-34 | 10.9 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 53 | 0 | 11.1% | 48% |
| 16 | CAR | 33-30 | 14.5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 127 | 0 | 11.5% | 52% |
| 17 | MIN | 33-10 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 20 | 120 | 0 | 2.9% | 57% |
| 18 | CHI | 17-9 | 19.1 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 22 | 111 | 0 | 15.6% | 82% |
| Receptions | 30 |
| Targets | 43 |
| Receiving yards | 233 |
| Carries | 142 |
| Rushing yards | 656 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 12.26 |
| Yards per target | 5.42 |
| Catch rate | 69.77% |
| Yards per carry | 4.62 |
| Snap share | 49.27% |
| Target share | 12.31% |
| Air-yards share | -1.89% |
| WOPR | 0.17 |
| RACR | -1.353 |
| Average depth of target | -1.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.3 |
| Total YAC | 271 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 90.6 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.86 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.22 |
| Red-zone targets | 12 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.8% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 43% |
| Goal-line carry share | 40% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.06 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -2.06 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 6.38 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 26 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 21 of 49 |
| Target share | 15 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 40 of 49 |
The offense threw it 581 times. He took 7.66% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Romeo Doubs | 17.11% |
| Jayden Reed | 16.76% |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 10.34% |
| Christian Watson | 9.45% |
| Luke Musgrave | 8.2% |
| Aaron Jones ← | 7.66% |
3 of his 11 games were blowouts, 43.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 19.53 in those and 10.88 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 2 against CHI — 32 PPR on 18 touches and a 12% target share, in a game that finished 27-10. His worst was Week 16 against MIA at 5.4, on 8 touches, final score 26-20. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.4; in the 8 decided by more, 16. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 14.2 points per game. He scored 14.62, 3.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 7-23 | 10.6 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 14.3% | 61% |
| 2 | CHI | 27-10 | 32 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 15 | 132 | 2 | 12% | 59% |
| 3 | TB | 14-12 | 5.7 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 36 | 0 | 11.8% | 63% |
| 4 | NE | 27-24 | 14.5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 110 | 0 | 12.5% | 62% |
| 5 | NYG | 22-27 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 63 | 0 | 7.7% | 73% |
| 6 | NYJ | 10-27 | 7.4 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 9.1% | 56% |
| 7 | WAS | 21-23 | 28.6 | 9 | 10 | 53 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 30.3% | 74% |
| 8 | BUF | 17-27 | 19.7 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 20 | 143 | 0 | 17.2% | 67% |
| 9 | DET | 9-15 | 6.5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 25 | 0 | 5% | 41% |
| 10 | DAL | 31-28 | 23.6 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 24 | 138 | 1 | 10.5% | 70% |
| 11 | TEN | 17-27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 12 | 40 | 0 | 18.9% | 66% |
| 12 | PHI | 33-40 | 18.9 | 3 | 4 | 56 | 12 | 43 | 1 | 16% | 71% |
| 13 | CHI | 28-19 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 9 | 26 | 0 | 16.7% | 38% |
| 15 | LA | 24-12 | 20.6 | 4 | 5 | 36 | 17 | 90 | 1 | 17.9% | 56% |
| 16 | MIA | 26-20 | 5.4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 5.3% | 38% |
| 17 | MIN | 41-17 | 13.3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 111 | 0 | 11.5% | 40% |
| 18 | DET | 16-20 | 7.8 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 12 | 48 | 0 | 15.4% | 55% |
| Receptions | 59 |
| Targets | 72 |
| Receiving yards | 395 |
| Carries | 213 |
| Rushing yards | 1,121 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 14.62 |
| Yards per target | 5.49 |
| Catch rate | 81.94% |
| Yards per carry | 5.26 |
| Snap share | 58.24% |
| Target share | 13.65% |
| Air-yards share | 0.03% |
| WOPR | 0.205 |
| RACR | 0.086 |
| Average depth of target | 0.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.9 |
| Total YAC | 447 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 112.7 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.13 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.71 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.3% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 47% |
| Goal-line carry share | 21.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.44 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.56 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 3.27 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 11 of 42 |
| Yards per target | 16 of 42 |
| Target share | 7 of 42 |
| Air-yards share | 18 of 42 |
The offense threw it 563 times. He took 13.36% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Allen Lazard | 18.55% |
| Aaron Jones ← | 13.36% |
| Robert Tonyan | 12.43% |
| Romeo Doubs | 12.43% |
| Christian Watson | 12.24% |
| Randall Cobb | 9.28% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 21.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.57 in those and 13.44 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 2 against DET — 41.5 PPR on 23 touches and a 22.2% target share, in a game that finished 35-17. His worst was Week 12 against LA at 2.3, on 11 touches, final score 36-28. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.3; in the 8 decided by more, 17. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 14.3 points per game. He scored 15.27, 11.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 5 against 3.51 expected, a gap of 1.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 3-38 | 4.2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 6.1% | 49% |
| 2 | DET | 35-17 | 41.5 | 6 | 6 | 48 | 17 | 67 | 4 | 22.2% | 69% |
| 3 | SF | 30-28 | 17.6 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 19 | 82 | 1 | 6.5% | 73% |
| 4 | PIT | 27-17 | 10.9 | 3 | 4 | 51 | 15 | 48 | 0 | 11.4% | 63% |
| 5 | CIN | 25-22 | 14.9 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 103 | 0 | 14.3% | 69% |
| 6 | CHI | 24-14 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 34 | 13 | 76 | 1 | 19% | 59% |
| 7 | WAS | 24-10 | 8.9 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 14.7% | 73% |
| 8 | ARI | 24-21 | 24 | 7 | 11 | 51 | 15 | 59 | 1 | 31.4% | 66% |
| 9 | KC | 7-13 | 5.3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 53 | 0 | 6.3% | 63% |
| 10 | SEA | 17-0 | 12.6 | 4 | 6 | 61 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 17.1% | 46% |
| 12 | LA | 36-28 | 2.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 2.3% | 49% |
| 14 | CHI | 45-30 | 21.5 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 35 | 2 | 8.6% | 45% |
| 15 | BAL | 31-30 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 13 | 58 | 1 | 6.5% | 63% |
| 16 | CLE | 24-22 | 13.7 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 12 | 66 | 0 | 17.6% | 56% |
| 17 | MIN | 37-10 | 15.6 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 8 | 76 | 0 | 14.3% | 41% |
| Receptions | 52 |
| Targets | 65 |
| Receiving yards | 391 |
| Carries | 171 |
| Rushing yards | 799 |
| Touchdowns | 10 |
| Points per game | 15.27 |
| Yards per target | 6.02 |
| Catch rate | 80% |
| Yards per carry | 4.67 |
| Snap share | 58.93% |
| Target share | 13.22% |
| Air-yards share | 1.6% |
| WOPR | 0.211 |
| RACR | -2.296 |
| Average depth of target | 0.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.4 |
| Total YAC | 412 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 122.5 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.61 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.1 |
| Red-zone targets | 17 |
| Red-zone target share | 13.6% |
| End-zone target share | 4.2% |
| Red-zone carry share | 36.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 33.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.51 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.49 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 5.47 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 12 of 50 |
| Yards per target | 17 of 50 |
| Target share | 7 of 50 |
| Air-yards share | 5 of 50 |
The offense threw it 593 times. He took 11.42% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Davante Adams | 29.7% |
| Aaron Jones ← | 11.42% |
| Allen Lazard | 10.54% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 9.67% |
| Randall Cobb | 6.85% |
| A.J. Dillon | 6.5% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 14 | 63 | 15.98 | 6.21 | 13.71% |
| Jordan Love | 1 | 2 | 5.3 | 0 | 6.3% |
4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 32.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.48 in those and 13.26 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 2 against DET — 45.6 PPR on 26 touches and a 26.7% target share, in a game that finished 42-21. His worst was Week 14 against DET at 9.5, on 18 touches, final score 31-24. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.5; in the 9 decided by more, 19.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 15.6 points per game. He scored 18.49, 13.5% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 43-34 | 17.6 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 66 | 1 | 14.6% | 54% |
| 2 | DET | 42-21 | 45.6 | 4 | 8 | 68 | 18 | 168 | 3 | 26.7% | 48% |
| 3 | NO | 37-30 | 16.6 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 69 | 1 | 13.3% | 71% |
| 4 | ATL | 30-16 | 22.1 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 15 | 71 | 1 | 15.2% | 52% |
| 6 | TB | 10-38 | 13.1 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 16.1% | 57% |
| 9 | SF | 34-17 | 12.9 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 15 | 58 | 0 | 16.7% | 61% |
| 10 | JAX | 24-20 | 14.5 | 5 | 6 | 49 | 13 | 46 | 0 | 18.2% | 63% |
| 11 | IND | 31-34 | 17.1 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 10 | 41 | 1 | 11.4% | 50% |
| 12 | CHI | 41-25 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 90 | 0 | 6.9% | 54% |
| 13 | PHI | 30-16 | 23.8 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 15 | 130 | 1 | 9.4% | 66% |
| 14 | DET | 31-24 | 9.5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 69 | 0 | 9.7% | 70% |
| 15 | CAR | 24-16 | 24.8 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 20 | 145 | 1 | 15.4% | 90% |
| 16 | TEN | 40-14 | 12.8 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 94 | 0 | 12.5% | 38% |
| 17 | CHI | 35-16 | 18.5 | 4 | 5 | 43 | 11 | 42 | 1 | 20.8% | 70% |
| Receptions | 47 |
| Targets | 63 |
| Receiving yards | 355 |
| Carries | 201 |
| Rushing yards | 1,104 |
| Touchdowns | 11 |
| Points per game | 18.49 |
| Yards per target | 5.63 |
| Catch rate | 74.6% |
| Yards per carry | 5.49 |
| Snap share | 60.29% |
| Target share | 14.78% |
| Air-yards share | 1.42% |
| WOPR | 0.23 |
| RACR | 1.906 |
| Average depth of target | 1.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.2 |
| Total YAC | 365 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 98.3 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.41 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.96 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.9% |
| End-zone target share | 9.3% |
| Red-zone carry share | 49.5% |
| Goal-line carry share | 54.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.86 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.86 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 8.2 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 4 of 47 |
| Yards per target | 23 of 47 |
| Target share | 4 of 47 |
| Air-yards share | 8 of 47 |
The offense threw it 526 times. He took 12.6% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Davante Adams | 29.8% |
| Aaron Jones ← | 12.6% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 12.6% |
| Robert Tonyan | 11.8% |
| Allen Lazard | 9.2% |
| Jamaal Williams | 7% |
5 of his 14 games were blowouts, 39.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 20.58 in those and 16.5 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Aaron Jones →