Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 11.85 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 13, usage worth 14.2.
27 years old · 6 seasons of experience · 2020 draft class
| SLEEPER | 11.9 |
| ESPN | 12.2 |
| YAHOO | 12.3 |
| UNDERDOG | 10.9 |
| CBS | 15.7 |
| FFA | 9 |
| Goes around | Round 2, pick 1 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR6 |
| Bye week | 6 |
| ADP standard deviation | 1.8 picks |
Our board has him at 275.9 points, 16.8 per game — 92.8 catches, 1,312 yards, 8.3 TDs. That is WR1, 9 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 13.9 points per game to a ceiling of 23.4, with the median at 16.8. Boom rate 39%, bust rate 17%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 13 on consensus and our board has him 9. We rank him 4 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
League's biggest TD underperformer (2 TD on ~9.4 expected). Elite talent at a discount near pick 12 — pair with an RB at the 1/2 turn. Risk is the Murray/McCarthy QB situation; downgrade if unsettled into August.
buy · high conviction · 2026-06-05Minnesota Vikings returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1. Kyler Murray at quarterback, Kevin O'Connell as head coach, Wes Phillips calling it. The offense projects to 32.6 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 25 rushes.
In: Kyler Murray (qb), Dontae Fleming (wr5), Dillon Bell (wr7), Desmond Claiborne (rb3). Out: Carson Wentz (qb), Jalen Nailor (wr3), Adam Thielen (wr4).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 26.5%, with a bear case of 25.6% and a bull case of 29% and a full range of 24.7% to 29.7%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Justin Jefferson ← | 26.5% |
| Jordan Addison | 18.3% |
| TJ Hockenson | 16.6% |
| Aaron Jones | 9.8% |
| Tai Felton | 7.7% |
| Jordan Mason | 5.6% |
What the offense looks like: Jefferson and Addison have all the talent in the world they & KOC is an elite coach, but this team needs to feed them. This RB room struggled last year. Difficult to say if Aaron Jones & Jordan mason regressed or if teams just focused on stopping the run to force JJ McCarthy to throw them another Pick 6. Either way, running game has to get established in 2026. Likely a committee as Aaron Jones was expected to be cut but took a pay cut to come back.
Key additions: Kyler Murray QB from Cardinals (former 1st overall pick).
Key departures: Jalen Nailor WR3 left to Raiders in free agency. Pretty solid loss that opens up a decent target
Notes: Jefferson dynasty cornerstone regardless of QB. Vikings sign Kyler Murray from Cardinals who is looking to turn around career. Kyler will compete with McCarthy for QB1 spot but JJ Nine McCarthy is BOOTY CHEEKS, so Kyler will start & could elevate offense a lot. Jefferson long term value there regardless of QB, Addison is great WR but volume still isnt there, interesting buy if can get him for cheap. Aaron Jones may phase out and took a pay cut to stay. Mason is mid. Rookie RB Claiborne COULD build out a role if he can beat out Mason. Hockenson should be better than last year but his play has declined a lot.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Kyler Murray, avg 32 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.6 att/g.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~27, prior share 29.9%, same team, OC continuity, QB change. Distribution: median 24.6%, p25-p75 [20.8%, 29.2%], tails [18.6%, 30.8%]. Closest comps: Odell Beckham 2020→2021 (CLE: 28.2%→18.2%); D.J. Moore 2023→2024 (CHI: 29.1%→27.1%); D.J. Moore 2021→2022 (CAR: 27.1%→28.8%). Adjustment: -6% from role_decline (real opportunity collapse)
self-anchored 58% to own 29.9% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 24.6%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: MIN rates 22.2 against a league average of 23, 0.8 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +2.7 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +3.1 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +3.6 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +12.3 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Justin Jefferson study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -18.3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 2024 | 12.3 | 65% | -7% |
| A.J. Brown | 2024 | 16.7 | 64% | -10.3% |
| Davante Adams | 2024 | 17.2 | 63% | +34.1% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 2024 | 14.5 | 61% | +27.2% |
| Terry McLaurin | 2024 | 15.8 | 59% | -16.4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2026, round 5, pick 149 by CLE |
| College | Alabama |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′1″ |
| Weight | 202 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.43s |
| Vertical | 37.5″ |
| Broad jump | 126″ |
| Career PPR per game | 18 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 17.1% |
| Bust rate | 21.1% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.34 |
His best game was Week 4 against PIT — 22.6 PPR on 11 targets and a 26.2% target share, in a game that finished 21-24. His worst was Week 13 against SEA at 2.4, on 6 targets, final score 0-26. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.8; in the 8 decided by more, 9.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 14.2 points per game. He scored 11.85, 16.3% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 5.18 expected, a gap of -3.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 27-24 | 14.8 | 4 | 7 | 44 | 1 | 35% | 98% |
| 2 | ATL | 6-22 | 11.1 | 3 | 6 | 81 | 0 | 28.6% | 100% |
| 3 | CIN | 48-10 | 12.5 | 5 | 7 | 75 | 0 | 29.2% | 80% |
| 4 | PIT | 21-24 | 22.6 | 10 | 11 | 126 | 0 | 26.2% | 100% |
| 5 | CLE | 21-17 | 19.3 | 7 | 11 | 123 | 0 | 32.4% | 100% |
| 7 | PHI | 22-28 | 12.9 | 5 | 10 | 79 | 0 | 25% | 99% |
| 8 | LAC | 10-37 | 14.4 | 7 | 11 | 74 | 0 | 36.7% | 88% |
| 9 | DET | 27-24 | 16.7 | 6 | 9 | 47 | 1 | 39.1% | 95% |
| 10 | BAL | 19-27 | 7.7 | 4 | 12 | 37 | 0 | 29.3% | 100% |
| 11 | CHI | 17-19 | 11.1 | 5 | 9 | 61 | 0 | 28.1% | 100% |
| 12 | GB | 6-23 | 8.8 | 4 | 6 | 48 | 0 | 33.3% | 100% |
| 13 | SEA | 0-26 | 2.4 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 20.7% | 96% |
| 14 | WAS | 31-0 | 3.1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 17.4% | 80% |
| 15 | DAL | 34-26 | 4.2 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 33.3% | 96% |
| 16 | NYG | 16-13 | 14.5 | 6 | 8 | 85 | 0 | 34.8% | 95% |
| 17 | DET | 23-10 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 35.7% | 98% |
| 18 | GB | 16-3 | 18.4 | 8 | 11 | 101 | 0 | 36.7% | 76% |
| Receptions | 84 |
| Targets | 141 |
| Receiving yards | 1,048 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 7 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 11.85 |
| Yards per target | 7.43 |
| Catch rate | 59.57% |
| Yards per carry | 3.5 |
| Snap share | 94.18% |
| Target share | 30.68% |
| Air-yards share | 40.15% |
| WOPR | 0.741 |
| RACR | 0.815 |
| Average depth of target | 10.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.1 |
| Total YAC | 451 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 57.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.81 |
| Red-zone targets | 18 |
| Red-zone target share | 24.7% |
| End-zone target share | 40.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.18 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -3.18 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 27 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 32 of 44 |
| Target share | 4 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 7 of 44 |
The offense threw it 484 times. He took 30.26% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Justin Jefferson ← | 30.26% |
| Jordan Addison | 16.95% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 14.16% |
| Jalen Nailor | 11.37% |
| Aaron Jones | 8.8% |
| Josh Oliver | 4.08% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 10 | 80 | 11.04 | 6.71 | 31.56% |
| Carson Wentz | 5 | 50 | 16.34 | 9.54 | 29.9% |
| Max Brosmer | 2 | 11 | 4.7 | 3.09 | 28.2% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 20.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.24 in those and 13.76 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 16 against SEA — 36.4 PPR on 13 targets and a 37.1% target share, in a game that finished 27-24. His worst was Week 12 against CHI at 4.7, on 5 targets, final score 30-27. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 8 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.7; in the 7 decided by more, 18.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 16 points per game. He scored 18.68, 14.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 28-6 | 15.9 | 4 | 6 | 59 | 1 | 26.1% | 84% |
| 2 | SF | 23-17 | 23.3 | 4 | 7 | 133 | 1 | 29.2% | 70% |
| 3 | HOU | 34-7 | 20.1 | 6 | 8 | 81 | 1 | 32% | 90% |
| 4 | GB | 31-29 | 20.5 | 6 | 8 | 85 | 1 | 29.6% | 90% |
| 5 | NYJ | 23-17 | 15.2 | 6 | 14 | 92 | 0 | 50% | 95% |
| 7 | DET | 29-31 | 21.4 | 7 | 8 | 81 | 1 | 30.8% | 97% |
| 8 | LA | 20-30 | 19.5 | 8 | 9 | 115 | 0 | 39.1% | 100% |
| 9 | IND | 21-13 | 21.58 | 7 | 9 | 137 | 0 | 27.3% | 99% |
| 10 | JAX | 12-7 | 9.8 | 5 | 9 | 48 | 0 | 24.3% | 93% |
| 11 | TEN | 23-13 | 14.1 | 6 | 8 | 81 | 0 | 26.7% | 99% |
| 12 | CHI | 30-27 | 4.7 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 15.6% | 99% |
| 13 | ARI | 23-22 | 16.9 | 7 | 9 | 99 | 0 | 30% | 96% |
| 14 | ATL | 42-21 | 32.2 | 7 | 7 | 132 | 2 | 25% | 95% |
| 15 | CHI | 30-12 | 20.3 | 7 | 14 | 73 | 1 | 37.8% | 88% |
| 16 | SEA | 27-24 | 36.4 | 10 | 13 | 144 | 2 | 37.1% | 97% |
| 17 | GB | 27-25 | 17.2 | 8 | 11 | 92 | 0 | 26.8% | 94% |
| 18 | DET | 9-31 | 8.4 | 3 | 9 | 54 | 0 | 23.7% | 98% |
| Receptions | 103 |
| Targets | 154 |
| Receiving yards | 1,533 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 3 |
| Touchdowns | 10 |
| Points per game | 18.68 |
| Yards per target | 9.95 |
| Catch rate | 66.88% |
| Yards per carry | 3 |
| Snap share | 93.18% |
| Target share | 30.06% |
| Air-yards share | 37.1% |
| WOPR | 0.711 |
| RACR | 0.987 |
| Average depth of target | 10.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.2 |
| Total YAC | 487 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 107.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.78 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.01 |
| Red-zone targets | 26 |
| Red-zone target share | 28% |
| End-zone target share | 44.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 6.61 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.61 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 3 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 5 of 51 |
| Target share | 4 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 11 of 51 |
The offense threw it 548 times. He took 30.14% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Justin Jefferson ← | 30.14% |
| Jordan Addison | 19.37% |
| Aaron Jones | 12.13% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 12.13% |
| Jalen Nailor | 8.22% |
| Josh Oliver | 5.48% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 30.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 19.38 in those and 18.7 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 18 against DET — 36 PPR on 14 targets and a 32.6% target share, in a game that finished 20-30. His worst was Week 14 against LV at 4.7, on 3 targets, final score 3-0. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 2 times.
His usage that season was worth 17.2 points per game. He scored 20.22, 18.9% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 3.05 expected, a gap of -2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 17-20 | 24 | 9 | 12 | 150 | 0 | 27.3% | 98% |
| 2 | PHI | 28-34 | 24.9 | 11 | 13 | 159 | 0 | 30.2% | 100% |
| 3 | LAC | 24-28 | 27.9 | 7 | 13 | 149 | 1 | 27.1% | 95% |
| 4 | CAR | 21-13 | 26.5 | 6 | 9 | 85 | 2 | 50% | 98% |
| 5 | KC | 20-27 | 5.8 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 13% | 71% |
| 14 | LV | 3-0 | 4.7 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 9.1% | 18% |
| 15 | CIN | 24-27 | 15.4 | 7 | 10 | 84 | 0 | 31.3% | 96% |
| 16 | DET | 24-30 | 26.1 | 6 | 10 | 141 | 1 | 28.6% | 98% |
| 17 | GB | 10-33 | 10.9 | 5 | 10 | 59 | 0 | 32.3% | 100% |
| 18 | DET | 20-30 | 36 | 12 | 14 | 192 | 1 | 32.6% | 93% |
| Receptions | 68 |
| Targets | 100 |
| Receiving yards | 1,074 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | -12 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 20.22 |
| Yards per target | 10.74 |
| Catch rate | 68% |
| Yards per carry | -12 |
| Snap share | 86.7% |
| Target share | 28.15% |
| Air-yards share | 39.51% |
| WOPR | 0.698 |
| RACR | 0.845 |
| Average depth of target | 12.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 12 |
| Total YAC | 260 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 107.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.28 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.2 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.8% |
| End-zone target share | 18.9% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.05 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -2.05 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.12 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 5 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 4 of 51 |
| Target share | 13 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 8 of 51 |
The offense threw it 631 times. He took 16.75% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| T.J. Hockenson | 21.27% |
| Jordan Addison | 18.09% |
| Justin Jefferson ← | 16.75% |
| K.J. Osborn | 12.56% |
| Brandon Powell | 7.37% |
| Alexander Mattison | 7.37% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 5 | 53 | 21.82 | 10.77 | 29.52% |
| Nick Mullens | 4 | 44 | 22.1 | 10.82 | 31.2% |
| Joshua Dobbs | 1 | 3 | 4.7 | 9 | 9.1% |
1 of his 10 games were blowouts, 5.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.9 in those and 19.41 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 1 against GB — 39.4 PPR on 11 targets and a 35.5% target share, in a game that finished 23-7. His worst was Week 17 against GB at 2.5, on 5 targets, final score 17-41. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 9 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 24.4; in the 6 decided by more, 16.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 18.3 points per game. He scored 21.69, 15.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 8.27 expected, a gap of -2.3.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 23-7 | 39.4 | 9 | 11 | 184 | 2 | 35.5% | 92% |
| 2 | PHI | 7-24 | 10.8 | 6 | 12 | 48 | 0 | 26.7% | 98% |
| 3 | DET | 28-24 | 4.4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 16.2% | 100% |
| 4 | NO | 28-25 | 31 | 10 | 13 | 147 | 1 | 37.1% | 94% |
| 5 | CHI | 29-22 | 30.32 | 12 | 13 | 154 | 0 | 33.3% | 100% |
| 6 | MIA | 24-16 | 16.7 | 6 | 8 | 107 | 0 | 28.6% | 94% |
| 8 | ARI | 34-26 | 15.8 | 6 | 8 | 98 | 0 | 25.8% | 99% |
| 9 | WAS | 20-17 | 25.5 | 7 | 13 | 115 | 1 | 33.3% | 100% |
| 10 | BUF | 33-30 | 35.3 | 10 | 16 | 193 | 1 | 32% | 100% |
| 11 | DAL | 3-40 | 6.3 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 17.9% | 79% |
| 12 | NE | 33-26 | 29.34 | 9 | 11 | 139 | 1 | 29.7% | 97% |
| 13 | NYJ | 27-22 | 18.6 | 7 | 11 | 45 | 1 | 33.3% | 96% |
| 14 | DET | 23-34 | 33.3 | 11 | 15 | 223 | 0 | 37.5% | 94% |
| 15 | IND | 39-36 | 30.3 | 12 | 16 | 123 | 1 | 29.6% | 92% |
| 16 | NYG | 27-24 | 31.3 | 12 | 16 | 133 | 1 | 34% | 100% |
| 17 | GB | 17-41 | 2.5 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 14.3% | 79% |
| 18 | CHI | 29-13 | 7.8 | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 15.6% | 51% |
| Receptions | 128 |
| Targets | 184 |
| Receiving yards | 1,809 |
| Carries | 4 |
| Rushing yards | 24 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 21.69 |
| Yards per target | 9.83 |
| Catch rate | 69.57% |
| Yards per carry | 6 |
| Snap share | 92.06% |
| Target share | 28.26% |
| Air-yards share | 37.88% |
| WOPR | 0.689 |
| RACR | 1.008 |
| Average depth of target | 10.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.3 |
| Total YAC | 624 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 104.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.43 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.13 |
| Red-zone targets | 32 |
| Red-zone target share | 28.3% |
| End-zone target share | 35.1% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 3.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 8.27 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | -2.27 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.43 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 2 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 5 of 51 |
| Target share | 10 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 9 of 51 |
The offense threw it 670 times. He took 29.25% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Justin Jefferson ← | 29.25% |
| Adam Thielen | 17.01% |
| K.J. Osborn | 14.31% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 13.67% |
| Dalvin Cook | 8.9% |
| Irv Smith | 5.72% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 5.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.53 in those and 24.41 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 11 against GB — 37.2 PPR on 10 targets and a 29.4% target share, in a game that finished 34-31. His worst was Week 8 against DAL at 4.1, on 4 targets, final score 16-20. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 14 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19.3; in the 3 decided by more, 20.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 17 points per game. He scored 19.44, 14.2% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 7 against 5.55 expected, a gap of 1.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 24-27 | 12.54 | 5 | 9 | 71 | 0 | 19.1% | 92% |
| 2 | ARI | 33-34 | 18.5 | 6 | 10 | 65 | 1 | 31.3% | 87% |
| 3 | SEA | 30-17 | 26.8 | 9 | 11 | 118 | 1 | 28.9% | 83% |
| 4 | CLE | 7-14 | 20.4 | 6 | 7 | 84 | 1 | 19.4% | 88% |
| 5 | DET | 19-17 | 19.4 | 7 | 8 | 124 | 0 | 25.8% | 90% |
| 6 | CAR | 34-28 | 14 | 8 | 14 | 80 | 0 | 31.1% | 94% |
| 8 | DAL | 16-20 | 4.1 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 12.1% | 71% |
| 9 | BAL | 31-34 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 69 | 1 | 17.9% | 80% |
| 10 | LAC | 27-20 | 22.9 | 9 | 11 | 143 | 0 | 31.4% | 76% |
| 11 | GB | 34-31 | 37.2 | 8 | 10 | 169 | 2 | 29.4% | 90% |
| 12 | SF | 26-34 | 13.26 | 4 | 9 | 83 | 0 | 28.1% | 93% |
| 13 | DET | 27-29 | 35.6 | 11 | 14 | 182 | 1 | 34.1% | 91% |
| 14 | PIT | 36-28 | 20.5 | 7 | 15 | 79 | 1 | 48.4% | 96% |
| 15 | CHI | 17-9 | 14.7 | 4 | 10 | 47 | 1 | 45.5% | 92% |
| 16 | LA | 23-30 | 19.6 | 8 | 12 | 116 | 0 | 34.3% | 97% |
| 17 | GB | 10-37 | 11.8 | 6 | 11 | 58 | 0 | 29.7% | 100% |
| 18 | CHI | 31-17 | 22.1 | 5 | 7 | 107 | 1 | 33.3% | 96% |
| Receptions | 108 |
| Targets | 167 |
| Receiving yards | 1,616 |
| Carries | 6 |
| Rushing yards | 14 |
| Touchdowns | 10 |
| Points per game | 19.44 |
| Yards per target | 9.68 |
| Catch rate | 64.67% |
| Yards per carry | 2.33 |
| Snap share | 89.18% |
| Target share | 29.4% |
| Air-yards share | 42.97% |
| WOPR | 0.742 |
| RACR | 0.799 |
| Average depth of target | 12.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.5 |
| Total YAC | 482 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 111.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.57 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.13 |
| Red-zone targets | 22 |
| Red-zone target share | 28.2% |
| End-zone target share | 38.9% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.55 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 7 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.45 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.1 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 4 of 48 |
| Yards per target | 7 of 48 |
| Target share | 3 of 48 |
| Air-yards share | 1 of 48 |
The offense threw it 604 times. He took 29.87% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Justin Jefferson ← | 29.87% |
| Adam Thielen | 16.99% |
| Tyler Conklin | 15.56% |
| K.J. Osborn | 14.67% |
| Dalvin Cook | 8.77% |
| Alexander Mattison | 6.98% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 16 | 156 | 19.91 | 9.99 | 29.38% |
| Sean Mannion | 1 | 11 | 11.8 | 5.27 | 29.7% |
1 of his 17 games were blowouts, 3.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.8 in those and 19.26 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 6 against ATL — 39.6 PPR on 11 targets and a 31.4% target share, in a game that finished 23-40. His worst was Week 1 against GB at 4.6, on 3 targets, final score 34-43. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.9; in the 6 decided by more, 14.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 14.1 points per game. He scored 17.14, 21.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 34-43 | 4.6 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 12% | 69% |
| 2 | IND | 11-28 | 7.4 | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 13% | 54% |
| 3 | TEN | 30-31 | 30.5 | 7 | 9 | 175 | 1 | 36% | 78% |
| 4 | HOU | 31-23 | 14.3 | 4 | 5 | 103 | 0 | 23.8% | 77% |
| 5 | SEA | 26-27 | 5.3 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 13.2% | 80% |
| 6 | ATL | 23-40 | 39.6 | 9 | 11 | 166 | 2 | 31.4% | 89% |
| 8 | GB | 28-22 | 5.6 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 28.6% | 65% |
| 9 | DET | 34-20 | 9.4 | 3 | 4 | 64 | 0 | 20% | 60% |
| 10 | CHI | 19-13 | 21.5 | 8 | 10 | 135 | 0 | 31.3% | 82% |
| 11 | DAL | 28-31 | 17.6 | 3 | 5 | 86 | 1 | 17.9% | 91% |
| 12 | CAR | 28-27 | 26 | 7 | 13 | 70 | 2 | 30.2% | 99% |
| 13 | JAX | 27-24 | 27.3 | 9 | 12 | 121 | 1 | 30% | 90% |
| 14 | TB | 14-26 | 9.9 | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 | 22.9% | 86% |
| 15 | CHI | 27-33 | 18.4 | 8 | 11 | 104 | 0 | 36.7% | 97% |
| 16 | NO | 33-52 | 14.5 | 6 | 10 | 85 | 0 | 26.3% | 91% |
| 17 | DET | 37-35 | 22.3 | 9 | 12 | 133 | 0 | 31.6% | 80% |
| Receptions | 88 |
| Targets | 125 |
| Receiving yards | 1,400 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 2 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 17.14 |
| Yards per target | 11.2 |
| Catch rate | 70.4% |
| Yards per carry | 2 |
| Snap share | 80.5% |
| Target share | 25.31% |
| Air-yards share | 36.99% |
| WOPR | 0.638 |
| RACR | 1.086 |
| Average depth of target | 11.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.8 |
| Total YAC | 453 |
| Broken tackles | 9 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 112.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.14 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.04 |
| Red-zone targets | 12 |
| Red-zone target share | 19.4% |
| End-zone target share | 15.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.43 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.57 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 8 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 1 of 51 |
| Target share | 12 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 8 of 51 |
The offense threw it 516 times. He took 26.48% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Justin Jefferson ← | 26.48% |
| Adam Thielen | 22.88% |
| Dalvin Cook | 11.44% |
| Irv Smith | 9.11% |
| Kyle Rudolph | 7.84% |
| Chad Beebe | 6.36% |
3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 22.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 20.5 in those and 18.88 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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