Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 16.44 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 19.4, usage worth 13.3.
32 years old · 10 seasons of experience · 2016 draft class
| SLEEPER | 22.8 |
| ESPN | 20.8 |
| YAHOO | 18.4 |
| UNDERDOG | 17.2 |
| CBS | 15.4 |
| FFA | 18 |
| Goes around | Round 2, pick 7 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB11 |
| Bye week | 13 |
| ADP standard deviation | 3.2 picks |
Our board has him at 228.1 points, 14.3 per game — 1,217 rushing yards, 12.3 rushing TDs, 13.2 catches. That is RB3, 18 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 10.1 points per game to a ceiling of 23.4, with the median at 14.3. Boom rate 64%, bust rate 29%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 19.4 on consensus and our board has him 18. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
deliberately ranked at exactly his *pre-Week-17-nuke* pace, not his final-week- inflated season average, because the receiving role decline (33→28→19→15 receptions across seasons) is a real, gradual, age-management trend — not noise, not missed-games-driven. Some real OC-change risk (Todd Monken left for Cleveland) offset by Ben Johnson having personally hand-picked the replacement.
buy · high conviction · 2026-08Baltimore Ravens returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Lamar Jackson at quarterback, Jesse Minter as head coach, Declan Doyle calling it. The offense projects to 30 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 28.1 rushes.
In: Ja'Kobi Lane (wr4), Elijah Sarratt (wr5), Cornelius Johnson (wr7), Adam Randall (rb3), Ali Rasheen (rb4), Durham Smythe (te2). Out: Devin Duvernay (wr3), Tylan Wallace (wr5), Keaton Mitchell (rb3), Rasheen Ali (rb4), Isaiah Likely (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Derrick Henry ← | 69.4% |
| Justice Hill | 17.9% |
| Adam Randall | 9.3% |
| Ali Rasheen | 3.5% |
What the offense looks like: Derrick Henry is aging, but until proven otherwise, will continue to be the Ravens workhorse back. Zay Flowers had his 5th year option picked up & his long term future in Baltimore MAY hinge on his 2026 season. he has shown flashes of being a true WR1, and Baltimore hasn't brought in direct competition with him, but imagine if he doesn't establish himself this year that Ravens will address WR more adequately. Rookie WRS Lane & Sarratt. have a large opportunity to take a substantial role in this offense. Bateman and Walker by no means are locked in as WR2 and WR3.
Key additions: G John Simpson (3/$30M), TE Durham Smythe (depth), QB Tyler Huntley (Back up to Lamar), WR Ja'Kobi Lane (3rd round from USC), WR Elijah Sarratt (4th Round Indiana), TE Matthew Hibner TE (5th round SMU)
Key departures: Biggest departure is HC John Harbaugh being fired at the end of the 2025 season. C Tyler Linderbaum left to Raiders. Isaiah Likely (TE) signed 3 year deal with NY. Lost RB Keaton Mitchell to the Chargers.
Notes: Lamar expected to completely bounce back. Derrick Henry is the unicorn who never ages apparently (fall off coming but production still here as of now). Ravens draft Adam Randall RB in 5th round. Justice Hill will still operate as 3rd down back. Henry main back. Isaiah Likely left to Giants in free agency. Andrews signs extension. Durham Smythe TE & Matthew Hibner TE also drafted. Andrews should be TE1 but unsure what production will look like. Ravens picked up Flowers franchise tag and he is under contract through 2027. Lane could be a rookie breakout, opportunity is 100% there.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Lamar Jackson returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (24.8 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30 att/g; New OC Declan Doyle — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jesse Minter.
| Projected carry share | 69.4% |
| Projected carries per game | 16 |
| Projected carries, full season | 271 |
| Last season, carries per game | 18.1 |
That is a reduction of 2.1 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 28.1 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: BAL rates 25.7 against a league average of 23, 2.7 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +1.1 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | -1.1 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.7 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +5.7 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Derrick Henry study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -11.1% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 2024 | 15.9 | 46% | -29% |
| James Conner | 2023 | 15.5 | 42% | +27.8% |
| Kareem Hunt | 2024 | 12 | 41% | -0.4% |
| Josh Jacobs | 2024 | 17.2 | 40% | +0.9% |
| Joe Mixon | 2024 | 17.2 | 39% | -47.6% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 2 lost it and 2 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2016, round 2, pick 45 by TEN |
| College | Alabama |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′3″ |
| Weight | 247 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.54s |
| Vertical | 37″ |
| Broad jump | 130″ |
| 3-cone | 7.2s |
| Shuttle | 4.38s |
| Career PPR per game | 19 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 24.7% |
| Bust rate | 16.4% |
| Games missed per season | 0.2 |
| Injury history | Hip |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.13 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 17 against GB — 45.6 PPR on 36 touches and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 41-24. His worst was Week 2 against CLE at 2.3, on 11 touches, final score 41-17. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.9; in the 10 decided by more, 16.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 13.3 points per game. He scored 16.44, 23.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 40-41 | 29.2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 18 | 169 | 2 | 5.3% | 57% |
| 2 | CLE | 41-17 | 2.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 23 | 0 | 0% | 61% |
| 3 | DET | 30-38 | 10.7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 50 | 1 | 3.6% | 49% |
| 4 | KC | 20-37 | 7.8 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 10% | 38% |
| 5 | HOU | 10-44 | 9.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 33 | 1 | 5% | 65% |
| 6 | LA | 3-17 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 122 | 0 | 6.3% | 49% |
| 8 | CHI | 30-16 | 19.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 71 | 2 | 4.5% | 58% |
| 9 | MIA | 28-6 | 13.1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 119 | 0 | 4.3% | 64% |
| 10 | MIN | 27-19 | 11.4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 75 | 0 | 10.7% | 67% |
| 11 | CLE | 23-16 | 20.2 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 18 | 103 | 1 | 8% | 54% |
| 12 | NYJ | 23-10 | 22.8 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 21 | 64 | 2 | 10% | 56% |
| 13 | CIN | 14-32 | 17.4 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 10 | 60 | 1 | 3.3% | 40% |
| 14 | PIT | 22-27 | 11.2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 94 | 0 | 6.1% | 54% |
| 15 | CIN | 24-0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 100 | 0 | 0% | 37% |
| 16 | NE | 24-28 | 22.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 128 | 2 | 0% | 44% |
| 17 | GB | 41-24 | 45.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 216 | 4 | 0% | 63% |
| 18 | PIT | 24-26 | 12.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 126 | 0 | 5.9% | 71% |
| Receptions | 15 |
| Targets | 21 |
| Receiving yards | 150 |
| Carries | 307 |
| Rushing yards | 1,595 |
| Touchdowns | 16 |
| Points per game | 16.44 |
| Yards per target | 7.14 |
| Catch rate | 71.43% |
| Yards per carry | 5.2 |
| Snap share | 54.53% |
| Target share | 4.88% |
| Air-yards share | 0.24% |
| WOPR | 0.075 |
| RACR | 1.878 |
| Average depth of target | 0.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 1 |
| Total YAC | 135 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 71.5 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.17 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.54 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 3.7% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 59.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 84.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.3 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.3 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 13.44 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 8 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 11 of 49 |
| Target share | 39 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 15 of 49 |
The offense threw it 422 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Zay Flowers | 28.99% |
| Mark Andrews | 17.2% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9.58% |
| Rashod Bateman | 9.34% |
| Isaiah Likely | 8.85% |
| Justice Hill | 6.63% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 13 | 17 | 14.73 | 8.35 | 5.17% |
| Cooper Rush | 2 | 3 | 11.65 | 2.67 | 5.65% |
| Tyler Huntley | 2 | 1 | 32.35 | 0 | 2.25% |
7 of his 17 games were blowouts, 37.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.07 in those and 16.87 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 4 against BUF — 35.9 PPR on 27 touches and a 16.7% target share, in a game that finished 35-10. His worst was Week 15 against NYG at 6.7, on 14 touches, final score 35-14. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 8 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.7; in the 7 decided by more, 24.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 14.3 points per game. He scored 19.79, 39.9% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 20-27 | 10.6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 46 | 1 | 5% | 46% |
| 2 | LV | 23-26 | 16.6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 18 | 84 | 1 | 3.2% | 46% |
| 3 | DAL | 28-25 | 30.4 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 25 | 151 | 2 | 6.7% | 59% |
| 4 | BUF | 35-10 | 35.9 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 199 | 2 | 16.7% | 65% |
| 5 | CIN | 41-38 | 16.6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 92 | 1 | 2.4% | 50% |
| 6 | WAS | 30-23 | 25.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 132 | 2 | 0% | 63% |
| 7 | TB | 41-31 | 25.2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 15 | 169 | 1 | 4.8% | 58% |
| 8 | CLE | 24-29 | 14.7 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 73 | 1 | 2.9% | 51% |
| 9 | DEN | 41-10 | 26.3 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 23 | 106 | 2 | 5.3% | 61% |
| 10 | CIN | 35-34 | 14.1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 1 | 3.1% | 62% |
| 11 | PIT | 16-18 | 10.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 65 | 1 | 0% | 49% |
| 12 | LAC | 30-23 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 140 | 0 | 0% | 60% |
| 13 | PHI | 19-24 | 14.1 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 19 | 82 | 0 | 8.6% | 51% |
| 15 | NYG | 35-14 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 67 | 0 | 0% | 46% |
| 16 | PIT | 34-17 | 20.9 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 24 | 162 | 0 | 8.7% | 74% |
| 17 | HOU | 31-2 | 24.5 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 27 | 147 | 1 | 12.5% | 65% |
| 18 | CLE | 35-10 | 30.1 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 20 | 138 | 2 | 10% | 70% |
| Receptions | 19 |
| Targets | 22 |
| Receiving yards | 193 |
| Carries | 325 |
| Rushing yards | 1,921 |
| Touchdowns | 18 |
| Points per game | 19.79 |
| Yards per target | 8.77 |
| Catch rate | 86.36% |
| Yards per carry | 5.91 |
| Snap share | 57.41% |
| Target share | 5.29% |
| Air-yards share | -0.99% |
| WOPR | 0.073 |
| RACR | 1.5 |
| Average depth of target | -1.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 11.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.2 |
| Total YAC | 216 |
| Broken tackles | 8 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 133.5 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.53 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 2.39 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.8% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 64.2% |
| Goal-line carry share | 91.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.54 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.46 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 12.11 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 4 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 3 of 46 |
| Target share | 36 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 27 of 46 |
The offense threw it 477 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Zay Flowers | 25.38% |
| Rashod Bateman | 15.75% |
| Mark Andrews | 15.1% |
| Isaiah Likely | 12.69% |
| Justice Hill | 11.16% |
| Nelson Agholor | 6.35% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 42.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 24.07 in those and 16.68 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 13 against IND — 25 PPR on 23 touches and a 6.1% target share, in a game that finished 28-31. His worst was Week 3 against CLE at 2, on 11 touches, final score 3-27. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.3; in the 5 decided by more, 7.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 13 points per game. He scored 14.51, 12% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 15-16 | 13.9 | 2 | 3 | 56 | 15 | 63 | 0 | 9.1% | 48% |
| 2 | LAC | 27-24 | 18.5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 25 | 80 | 1 | 16.7% | 71% |
| 3 | CLE | 3-27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 20 | 0 | 0% | 38% |
| 4 | CIN | 27-3 | 24.38 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 22 | 122 | 2 | 3.8% | 59% |
| 5 | IND | 16-23 | 9.2 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 43 | 0 | 8.8% | 62% |
| 6 | BAL | 16-24 | 19.3 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 97 | 1 | 10% | 53% |
| 8 | ATL | 28-23 | 16.2 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 22 | 101 | 0 | 15.4% | 65% |
| 9 | PIT | 16-20 | 19.2 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 17 | 75 | 1 | 10.8% | 49% |
| 10 | TB | 6-20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 11 | 24 | 0 | 2.6% | 43% |
| 11 | JAX | 14-34 | 5.4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 38 | 0 | 11.8% | 63% |
| 12 | CAR | 17-10 | 20.6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 2 | 7.4% | 64% |
| 13 | IND | 28-31 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 21 | 102 | 2 | 6.1% | 40% |
| 14 | MIA | 28-27 | 18.1 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 34 | 2 | 5.6% | 48% |
| 15 | HOU | 16-19 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 0 | 15.4% | 54% |
| 16 | SEA | 17-20 | 21.38 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 88 | 2 | 4% | 48% |
| 17 | HOU | 3-26 | 4.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 42 | 0 | 4% | 42% |
| 18 | JAX | 28-20 | 21.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 153 | 1 | 0% | 65% |
| Receptions | 28 |
| Targets | 36 |
| Receiving yards | 214 |
| Carries | 280 |
| Rushing yards | 1,167 |
| Touchdowns | 14 |
| Points per game | 14.51 |
| Yards per target | 5.94 |
| Catch rate | 77.78% |
| Yards per carry | 4.17 |
| Snap share | 53.65% |
| Target share | 7.74% |
| Air-yards share | -2.63% |
| WOPR | 0.099 |
| RACR | -0.428 |
| Average depth of target | -2.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -2.2 |
| Total YAC | 275 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 91.4 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.19 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.12 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 4.2% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 66.1% |
| Goal-line carry share | 76.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.41 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.41 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 8.42 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 16 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 13 of 49 |
| Target share | 32 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 43 of 49 |
The offense threw it 494 times. He took 7.56% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DeAndre Hopkins | 28.78% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 16.18% |
| Tyjae Spears | 14.71% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 9.45% |
| Derrick Henry ← | 7.56% |
| Chris Moore | 7.35% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 9 | 15 | 14.91 | 8.53 | 6.27% |
| Will Levis | 8 | 21 | 14.06 | 4.1 | 9.39% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 14.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9 in those and 17.31 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 8 against HOU — 35.8 PPR on 33 touches and a 12.5% target share, in a game that finished 17-10. His worst was Week 13 against PHI at 5.8, on 14 touches, final score 10-35. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 8 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 20.5; in the 5 decided by more, 15.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 17.5 points per game. He scored 18.92, 8.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.59 expected, a gap of -1.6.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 20-21 | 8.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 82 | 0 | 3.2% | 68% |
| 2 | BUF | 7-41 | 8.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 25 | 1 | 0% | 46% |
| 3 | LV | 24-22 | 25.3 | 5 | 6 | 58 | 20 | 85 | 1 | 23.1% | 74% |
| 4 | IND | 24-17 | 23.7 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 22 | 114 | 1 | 23.8% | 69% |
| 5 | WAS | 21-17 | 27.2 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 28 | 102 | 2 | 8.7% | 64% |
| 7 | IND | 19-10 | 16.8 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 128 | 0 | 15% | 75% |
| 8 | HOU | 17-10 | 35.8 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 219 | 2 | 12.5% | 74% |
| 9 | KC | 17-20 | 23.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 115 | 2 | 0% | 59% |
| 10 | DEN | 17-10 | 8.7 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 19 | 53 | 0 | 8.3% | 58% |
| 11 | GB | 27-17 | 25.36 | 2 | 2 | 45 | 28 | 87 | 2 | 7.4% | 71% |
| 12 | CIN | 16-20 | 14.7 | 3 | 3 | 79 | 17 | 38 | 0 | 8.8% | 56% |
| 13 | PHI | 10-35 | 5.8 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 30 | 0 | 12% | 55% |
| 14 | JAX | 22-36 | 20.5 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 17 | 121 | 1 | 13.2% | 75% |
| 15 | LAC | 14-17 | 26.3 | 4 | 4 | 59 | 21 | 104 | 1 | 15.4% | 71% |
| 16 | HOU | 14-19 | 18.6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 126 | 1 | 10% | 74% |
| 18 | JAX | 16-20 | 13.8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 30 | 109 | 0 | 3.7% | 75% |
| Receptions | 33 |
| Targets | 41 |
| Receiving yards | 398 |
| Carries | 349 |
| Rushing yards | 1,538 |
| Touchdowns | 14 |
| Points per game | 18.92 |
| Yards per target | 9.71 |
| Catch rate | 80.49% |
| Yards per carry | 4.41 |
| Snap share | 66.5% |
| Target share | 10.32% |
| Air-yards share | -0.01% |
| WOPR | 0.155 |
| RACR | -0.235 |
| Average depth of target | 0.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 11.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.4 |
| Total YAC | 386 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 107.1 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.88 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.39 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.2% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 80% |
| Goal-line carry share | 78.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.59 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.59 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 7.96 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 4 of 42 |
| Yards per target | 1 of 42 |
| Target share | 14 of 42 |
| Air-yards share | 20 of 42 |
The offense threw it 456 times. He took 9.4% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Robert Woods | 20.87% |
| Austin Hooper | 13.76% |
| Treylon Burks | 12.39% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 11.47% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 10.55% |
| Derrick Henry ← | 9.4% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 12 | 37 | 17.59 | 10 | 11.58% |
| Malik Willis | 3 | 3 | 25.97 | 3 | 7.5% |
| Joshua Dobbs | 1 | 1 | 13.8 | 19 | 3.7% |
2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 4.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.15 in those and 20.53 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 2 against SEA — 47.7 PPR on 41 touches and a 15.4% target share, in a game that finished 33-30. His worst was Week 8 against IND at 6.8, on 28 touches, final score 34-31. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 29; in the 4 decided by more, 19.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 19.8 points per game. He scored 24.16, 15.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 13-38 | 10.7 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 58 | 0 | 11.1% | 63% |
| 2 | SEA | 33-30 | 47.7 | 6 | 6 | 55 | 35 | 182 | 3 | 15.4% | 76% |
| 3 | IND | 25-16 | 19.4 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 28 | 113 | 0 | 11.5% | 72% |
| 4 | NYJ | 24-27 | 25.7 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 33 | 157 | 1 | 4.1% | 59% |
| 5 | JAX | 37-19 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 130 | 3 | 0% | 77% |
| 6 | BUF | 34-31 | 35.6 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 20 | 143 | 3 | 12% | 81% |
| 7 | KC | 27-3 | 16.4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 29 | 86 | 1 | 7.4% | 74% |
| 8 | IND | 34-31 | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 68 | 0 | 0% | 74% |
| Receptions | 18 |
| Targets | 20 |
| Receiving yards | 154 |
| Carries | 219 |
| Rushing yards | 937 |
| Touchdowns | 11 |
| Points per game | 24.16 |
| Yards per target | 7.7 |
| Catch rate | 90% |
| Yards per carry | 4.28 |
| Snap share | 72% |
| Target share | 7.69% |
| Air-yards share | -0.68% |
| WOPR | 0.11 |
| RACR | 0.336 |
| Average depth of target | -0.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.3 |
| Total YAC | 160 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 98.7 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.21 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.6 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 2.4% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 42.9% |
| Goal-line carry share | 37% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.28 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.28 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 6.42 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 1 of 50 |
| Yards per target | 7 of 50 |
| Target share | 28 of 50 |
| Air-yards share | 42 of 50 |
The offense threw it 534 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown | 20.23% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 10.98% |
| Julio Jones | 9.25% |
| Anthony Firkser | 8.29% |
| Chester Rogers | 8.29% |
| Geoff Swaim | 7.71% |
3 of his 8 games were blowouts, 30.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 19.37 in those and 28.95 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 6 against HOU — 40.4 PPR on 27 touches and a 12.2% target share, in a game that finished 42-36. His worst was Week 13 against CLE at 5.9, on 16 touches, final score 35-41. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19.4; in the 7 decided by more, 22.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 18.1 points per game. He scored 20.82, 11% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 16-14 | 16.1 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 31 | 116 | 0 | 7.5% | 75% |
| 2 | JAX | 33-30 | 8.4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 84 | 0 | 8.3% | 71% |
| 3 | MIN | 31-30 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 26 | 119 | 2 | 9.1% | 75% |
| 5 | BUF | 42-16 | 19.3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 57 | 2 | 7.1% | 52% |
| 6 | HOU | 42-36 | 40.4 | 2 | 5 | 52 | 22 | 212 | 2 | 12.2% | 60% |
| 7 | PIT | 24-27 | 15.2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 20 | 75 | 1 | 6.7% | 74% |
| 8 | CIN | 20-31 | 17.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 112 | 1 | 3.4% | 52% |
| 9 | CHI | 24-17 | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 68 | 0 | 0% | 53% |
| 10 | IND | 17-34 | 11.9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 103 | 0 | 7.4% | 58% |
| 11 | BAL | 30-24 | 20.2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 28 | 133 | 1 | 6.3% | 79% |
| 12 | IND | 45-26 | 38.5 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 178 | 3 | 20% | 64% |
| 13 | CLE | 35-41 | 5.9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 60 | 0 | 2.4% | 55% |
| 14 | JAX | 31-10 | 36.2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 215 | 2 | 8.7% | 64% |
| 15 | DET | 46-25 | 25.2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 147 | 1 | 7.7% | 63% |
| 16 | GB | 14-40 | 9.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 98 | 0 | 0% | 71% |
| 17 | HOU | 41-38 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 250 | 2 | 0% | 82% |
| Receptions | 19 |
| Targets | 31 |
| Receiving yards | 114 |
| Carries | 378 |
| Rushing yards | 2,027 |
| Touchdowns | 17 |
| Points per game | 20.82 |
| Yards per target | 3.68 |
| Catch rate | 61.29% |
| Yards per carry | 5.36 |
| Snap share | 65.5% |
| Target share | 6.68% |
| Air-yards share | -1.11% |
| WOPR | 0.093 |
| RACR | 0.313 |
| Average depth of target | -0.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.7 |
| Total YAC | 127 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 68.5 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.43 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 2.11 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 2.8% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 69.9% |
| Goal-line carry share | 64.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.81 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.81 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 12.15 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 3 of 47 |
| Yards per target | 45 of 47 |
| Target share | 29 of 47 |
| Air-yards share | 41 of 47 |
The offense threw it 484 times. He took 6.72% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown | 22.99% |
| Corey Davis | 19.96% |
| Jonnu Smith | 14.1% |
| Anthony Firkser | 11.5% |
| Adam Humphries | 7.59% |
| Derrick Henry ← | 6.72% |
6 of his 16 games were blowouts, 42.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 23.48 in those and 19.44 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Derrick Henry →