Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 7.19 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 112, usage worth 6.9.
25 years old · 2 seasons of experience · 2024 draft class
| SLEEPER | 101.8 |
| ESPN | 140.6 |
| YAHOO | 98.6 |
| UNDERDOG | 90.9 |
| CBS | 106.9 |
| FFA | 83 |
| Goes around | Round 10, pick 4 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB35 |
| Bye week | 11 |
| ADP standard deviation | 19.4 picks |
Our board has him at 149.2 points, 9.3 per game — 833 rushing yards, 6.9 rushing TDs, 11.2 catches. That is RB4, 84 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 5 points per game to a ceiling of 18, with the median at 9.3. Boom rate 93%, bust rate 47%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 112 on consensus and our board has him 84. We rank him 28 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
his outcome swings almost entirely on touchdown luck given how inefficient he's been on his very limited career receptions so far (well below a normal per-target rate); needs the rumored 50/50 early-down split to actually materialize to be worth the pick.
watch · medium conviction · 2026-08Los Angeles Rams returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Matthew Stafford at quarterback, Sean McVay as head coach, Nate Scheelhaase calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 26.5 rushes.
In: Ty Simpson (qb2), Jordan Whittington (wr3), Konata Mumpfield (wr4), CJ Daniels (wr5), Tyler Scott (wr7), Jarquez Hunter (rb4), Max Klare (te2). Out: Tutu Atwell (wr4), Davis Allen (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Kyren Williams | 60.7% |
| Blake Corum ← | 31.2% |
| Ronnie Rivers | 6.8% |
| Jarquez Hunter | 1.4% |
What the offense looks like: The highest producers in this offense will be incredibly valuable. Ty Simpson should maintain high value in dynasty at least until he starts in 2028 after Stafford leaves.
Key additions: Ty Simpson Drafted 13th overall. TE Max Klare 2nd round. OT Keagen Trost 3rd round. CJ Daniels WR 6th round.
Key departures: RT Rob Havenstein retired.
Notes: Rams draft Ty Simpson in the 1st round but Stafford is rumored to be signing 2 year extension. Simpson likely to sit until 2028 season. Best for him for development. Stafford will play at MVP level until retires more than likely. Puka has had off field trouble and spent time in Rehab, but should be ready by week 1. Rams draft TE Max Klare early & will likely be TE1 ahead of Parkinson but may not be. RB room is confusing, Corum has potential to overtake Kyren Williams in 2026 season. Both backs hold high value if the other is hurt. Adams only has 1 or 2 more years in him.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Matthew Stafford returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Nate Scheelhaase — pass rate and tempo may shift.
| Projected carry share | 31.2% |
| Projected carries per game | 6.8 |
| Projected carries, full season | 115 |
| Last season, carries per game | 8.6 |
That is a reduction of 1.8 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 26.5 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: LAR rates 27 against a league average of 23, 4.1 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Read the full Blake Corum study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +43.9% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, RBs crash the following year 59% of the time (hold 41%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 59% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 2022 | 5 | 77% | +100.4% |
| Dameon Pierce | 2023 | 5.9 | 69% | -12.5% |
| Zamir White | 2023 | 5.7 | 68% | -34.3% |
| Alexander Mattison | 2020 | 6.7 | 68% | +23.4% |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 2021 | 6.1 | 65% | -46.4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2024, round 3, pick 83 by LAR |
| College | Michigan |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 5′8″ |
| Weight | 205 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.53s |
| Vertical | 35.5″ |
| 3-cone | 6.82s |
| Shuttle | 4.12s |
| Career PPR per game | 5 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1.1 |
| Boom rate | 7.7% |
| Bust rate | 34.6% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.05 |
His best game was Week 14 against ARI — 26.1 PPR on 13 touches and a 3.2% target share, in a game that finished 45-17. His worst was Week 5 against SF at 1.3, on 3 touches, final score 23-26. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.3; in the 8 decided by more, 8.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 6.9 points per game. He scored 7.19, 3.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 14-9 | 2.6 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3.6% | 17% |
| 2 | TEN | 33-19 | 10.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 0% | 30% |
| 3 | PHI | 26-33 | 5.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 53 | 0 | 0% | 24% |
| 4 | IND | 27-20 | 3.6 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 9 | 21 | 0 | 10% | 29% |
| 5 | SF | 23-26 | 1.3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4.3% | 9% |
| 6 | BAL | 17-3 | 2.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 0% | 23% |
| 7 | JAX | 35-7 | 5.3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 37 | 0 | 3% | 34% |
| 9 | NO | 34-10 | 5.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 58 | 0 | 0% | 28% |
| 10 | SF | 42-26 | 5.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 56 | 0 | 0% | 39% |
| 11 | SEA | 21-19 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 7.4% | 31% |
| 12 | TB | 34-7 | 2.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 0% | 34% |
| 13 | CAR | 28-31 | 14.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 81 | 1 | 0% | 33% |
| 14 | ARI | 45-17 | 26.1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 128 | 2 | 3.2% | 31% |
| 15 | DET | 41-34 | 13.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 71 | 1 | 0% | 46% |
| 16 | SEA | 37-38 | 13.1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 14 | 48 | 1 | 4.2% | 29% |
| 17 | ATL | 24-27 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 0% | 25% |
| 18 | ARI | 37-20 | 7.9 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 59 | 0 | 2.7% | 33% |
| Receptions | 8 |
| Targets | 14 |
| Receiving yards | 36 |
| Carries | 145 |
| Rushing yards | 746 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 7.19 |
| Yards per target | 2.57 |
| Catch rate | 57.14% |
| Yards per carry | 5.14 |
| Snap share | 29.12% |
| Target share | 2.26% |
| Air-yards share | 0.09% |
| WOPR | 0.035 |
| RACR | -0.198 |
| Average depth of target | 2.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.1 |
| Total YAC | 37 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.2% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 62.2 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.35 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.94 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 0.8% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 28.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 37.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.15 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.15 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 6.07 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 45 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 49 of 49 |
| Target share | 48 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 17 of 49 |
The offense threw it 597 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Puka Nacua | 28.57% |
| Davante Adams | 19.62% |
| Colby Parkinson | 9.64% |
| Kyren Williams | 8.61% |
| Tyler Higbee | 6.2% |
| Davis Allen | 5.68% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 38.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.5 in those and 6.27 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 5 against GB — 4.3 PPR on 6 touches and a 2.2% target share, in a game that finished 19-24. His worst was Week 17 against ARI at -0.4, on 3 touches, final score 13-9. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 15 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.4; in the 4 decided by more, 1.9. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 3.6 points per game. He scored 2.23, 32.6% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 20-26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 2 | ARI | 10-41 | 2.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 0% | 15% |
| 5 | GB | 19-24 | 4.3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 2.2% | 14% |
| 7 | LV | 20-15 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 11% |
| 8 | MIN | 30-20 | 2.8 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 2.9% | 11% |
| 9 | SEA | 26-20 | -0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0% | 1% |
| 10 | MIA | 15-23 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 2.3% | 7% |
| 11 | NE | 28-22 | 3.8 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 3.7% | 19% |
| 12 | PHI | 20-37 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 9% |
| 13 | NO | 21-14 | 4.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 0% | 32% |
| 14 | BUF | 44-42 | 3.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 0 | 0% | 17% |
| 15 | SF | 12-6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 11.5% | 14% |
| 16 | NYJ | 19-9 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 17% |
| 17 | ARI | 13-9 | -0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 0% | 5% |
| 18 | SEA | 25-30 | 3.2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 2.5% | 18% |
| Receptions | 7 |
| Targets | 8 |
| Receiving yards | 58 |
| Carries | 58 |
| Rushing yards | 207 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 2.23 |
| Yards per target | 7.25 |
| Catch rate | 87.5% |
| Yards per carry | 3.57 |
| Snap share | 12.67% |
| Target share | 1.67% |
| Air-yards share | -0.09% |
| WOPR | 0.025 |
| RACR | 0.111 |
| Average depth of target | -0.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1 |
| Total YAC | 65 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 96.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.18 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.65 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 8.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 17.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.33 |
The offense threw it 559 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Puka Nacua | 19.59% |
| Cooper Kupp | 18.48% |
| Demarcus Robinson | 11.83% |
| Tutu Atwell | 11.46% |
| Colby Parkinson | 9.06% |
| Tyler Johnson | 7.58% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 14 | 7 | 2.16 | 6.57 | 1.61% |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 1 | 3.2 | 12 | 2.5% |
2 of his 15 games were blowouts, 9.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.65 in those and 2.36 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Blake Corum →