Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 17.17 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 24.2, usage worth 13.8.
25 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class
| SLEEPER | 23.7 |
| ESPN | 28.2 |
| YAHOO | 22.3 |
| UNDERDOG | 23.4 |
| CBS | 22.7 |
| FFA | 28 |
| Goes around | Round 2, pick 12 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR9 |
| Bye week | 14 |
| ADP standard deviation | 2.7 picks |
Our board has him at 233.9 points, 14.3 per game — 76.6 catches, 1,153 yards, 7 TDs. That is WR2, 28 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 10.9 points per game to a ceiling of 18.5, with the median at 14.3. Boom rate 30%, bust rate 23%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 24.2 on consensus and our board has him 28. We rank him 3.8 picks worse than the room drafts him, so at ADP he is mildly overpriced. That is an objection to the price and not to the player — if he falls past his slot he can be exactly the right pick.
went from a low-volume Pittsburgh passing attack to a high-volume Dallas offense, exactly the profile that made him last year's value bet, and it hit immediately (career- high catch rate, career-high yards/reception in year one). Contingent upside remains enormous if Lamb ever missed time — top-5 weekly option in those weeks even with Lamb healthy the rest of the year, because there's so little other systemic risk in Dallas's passing game.
buy · medium conviction · 2026-08Dallas Cowboys returns 6 of 6 continuity slots — the whole offense is intact. Dak Prescott at quarterback, Brian Schottenheimer as head coach, Klayton Adams calling it. The offense projects to 35.8 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.1 rushes.
In: Sam Howell (qb2), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (wr5), Anthony Smith (wr7).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 21.4%, with a bear case of 20.4% and a bull case of 21.6% and a full range of 19.5% to 22.7%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| CeeDee Lamb | 22.7% |
| George Pickens ← | 21.4% |
| Jake Ferguson | 12.9% |
| Ryan Flournoy | 8.8% |
| Javonte Williams | 8.2% |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 6.5% |
What the offense looks like: Cowboys offense remains essentially the same in 2026 but will be paired with a significantly more competitive defense. This is very important because there were multiple games last year where Cowboys had to pull starters in the 4th quarter because they were getting blown out. This is a high powered offense that can sustain 2 WR1s in fantasy. The real question remains if George Pickens is going to land an extension in Dallas. There is no TRUE line of sight into this yet. Jerry Jones says he wants him to be a Cowboy for the long term, but we can't trust Jerry. If someone paid enough George is gone. Ceedee is not expected to be a top 5 WR with Pickens playing at his 2025 levels, but can absolutely be a top 10 PPR fantasy WR. Ceedee is an elite WR. Cowboys also lock down Javonte Williams on 3 year exention.
Key additions: George Pickens was franchised tagged & will play 2026 season in Dallas (barring trade or hold out).
Key departures: WR Jalen Tolbert signed with Miami Dolphins (minor)
Notes: Dallas has added significantly on defense this offseason and should be VERY competitive. Multiple games last year caused starters to be benched due to blow outs. Dak remains a highly productive aging QB with a well balanced pass and rush offense. Javonte Williams landed massive 3 year extension with Cowboys & George Pickens has been franchised tagged with no current plans to land long term extension. Ceedee Lamb looks to get back on track as a top 5 WR following a rough 2025. Pickens and Ceedee should both be viewed as Dynasty WR1s. Jake Ferguson is expected to also have a great 2026 season. We want to own as many pieces of this offense as we can FOR THE RIGHT PRICE.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Dak Prescott returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (36.7 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 35.7 att/g.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~25, prior share 23.9%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 22.8%, p25-p75 [20.8%, 24.1%], tails [18.5%, 27.0%]. Closest comps: Amari Cooper 2023→2024 (CLE: 23.4%→18.7%); Brandon Aiyuk 2023→2024 (SF: 22.1%→22.2%); DeVonta Smith 2023→2024 (PHI: 24.7%→26.1%). Adjustment: +3% from real_breakout (sustainable)
self-anchored 58% to own 23.9% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 22.8%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: DAL rates 25.7 against a league average of 23, 2.7 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +1.4 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +3.5 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -4 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +2.3 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2 | Calvin Austin III | +4 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +38.2% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, WRs crash the following year 40% of the time (hold 60%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 40% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 2023 | 16.6 | 75% | +19% |
| Tee Higgins | 2024 | 18.5 | 75% | +0.7% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2024 | 14.2 | 74% | -22.4% |
| Nico Collins | 2024 | 17.6 | 73% | +0.5% |
| DeVonta Smith | 2024 | 15.3 | 71% | +1.5% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 1 lost it and 3 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2022, round 2, pick 52 by PIT |
| College | Georgia |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 6′3″ |
| Weight | 195 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.47s |
| Vertical | 33″ |
| Broad jump | 125″ |
| Career PPR per game | 13.3 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 28.3% |
| Bust rate | 18.9% |
| Games missed per season | 0.5 |
| Injury history | Hamstring |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.46 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 4 against GB — 33.4 PPR on 11 targets and a 28.9% target share, in a game that finished 40-40. His worst was Week 18 against NYG at 1.9, on 3 targets, final score 17-34. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19.2; in the 9 decided by more, 15.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 13.8 points per game. He scored 17.17, 24.8% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 6.14 expected, a gap of -2.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 20-24 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 12.1% | 92% |
| 2 | NYG | 40-37 | 17.8 | 5 | 9 | 68 | 1 | 17.3% | 89% |
| 3 | CHI | 14-31 | 17.8 | 5 | 9 | 68 | 1 | 20.5% | 82% |
| 4 | GB | 40-40 | 33.4 | 8 | 11 | 134 | 2 | 28.9% | 90% |
| 5 | NYJ | 37-22 | 13.7 | 2 | 4 | 57 | 1 | 14.3% | 78% |
| 6 | CAR | 27-30 | 31.8 | 9 | 11 | 168 | 1 | 32.4% | 84% |
| 7 | WAS | 44-22 | 12.2 | 4 | 6 | 82 | 0 | 20% | 84% |
| 8 | DEN | 24-44 | 14.8 | 7 | 9 | 78 | 0 | 25.7% | 80% |
| 9 | ARI | 17-27 | 13.9 | 6 | 9 | 79 | 0 | 25% | 91% |
| 11 | LV | 33-16 | 29.4 | 9 | 11 | 144 | 1 | 34.4% | 67% |
| 12 | PHI | 24-21 | 29.6 | 9 | 9 | 146 | 1 | 25.7% | 78% |
| 13 | KC | 31-28 | 16.8 | 6 | 13 | 88 | 0 | 35.1% | 74% |
| 14 | DET | 30-44 | 8.7 | 5 | 9 | 37 | 0 | 19.1% | 84% |
| 15 | MIN | 26-34 | 6.3 | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 17.1% | 86% |
| 16 | LAC | 17-34 | 26 | 7 | 9 | 130 | 1 | 28.1% | 88% |
| 17 | WAS | 30-23 | 11.8 | 4 | 5 | 78 | 0 | 13.9% | 87% |
| 18 | NYG | 17-34 | 1.9 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 13% | 45% |
| Receptions | 93 |
| Targets | 137 |
| Receiving yards | 1,429 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 17.17 |
| Yards per target | 10.43 |
| Catch rate | 67.88% |
| Snap share | 81.12% |
| Target share | 22.51% |
| Air-yards share | 32.2% |
| WOPR | 0.564 |
| RACR | 0.938 |
| Average depth of target | 11.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.2 |
| Total YAC | 479 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 114.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 5.22 |
| Red-zone targets | 23 |
| Red-zone target share | 22.8% |
| End-zone target share | 26.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 6.14 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | -2.14 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 5 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 4 of 44 |
| Target share | 21 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 23 of 44 |
The offense threw it 624 times. He took 22.57% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| George Pickens ← | 22.57% |
| CeeDee Lamb | 19.28% |
| Jake Ferguson | 16.8% |
| Ryan Flournoy | 9.23% |
| Javonte Williams | 8.4% |
| Kavontae Turpin | 6.26% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 16 | 134 | 18.13 | 10.6 | 23.1% |
| Joe Milton | 1 | 3 | 1.9 | 3 | 13% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 35% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.02 in those and 19.19 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 7 against NYJ — 22.1 PPR on 9 targets and a 33.3% target share, in a game that finished 37-15. His worst was Week 18 against CIN at 1, on 6 targets, final score 17-19. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.5; in the 4 decided by more, 12.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 12.8 points per game. He scored 11.74, 3.8% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 4.31 expected, a gap of -1.3.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 18-10 | 13.5 | 6 | 7 | 85 | 0 | 31.8% | 68% |
| 2 | DEN | 13-6 | 4.9 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 22.2% | 77% |
| 3 | LAC | 20-10 | 10.7 | 5 | 7 | 57 | 0 | 22.6% | 74% |
| 4 | IND | 24-27 | 16.3 | 7 | 11 | 113 | 0 | 34.4% | 86% |
| 5 | DAL | 17-20 | 5.6 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 26.9% | 59% |
| 6 | LV | 32-13 | 8.3 | 3 | 8 | 53 | 0 | 34.8% | 67% |
| 7 | NYJ | 37-15 | 22.1 | 5 | 9 | 111 | 1 | 33.3% | 79% |
| 8 | NYG | 26-18 | 11.4 | 4 | 5 | 74 | 0 | 18.5% | 80% |
| 10 | WAS | 28-27 | 20.5 | 5 | 7 | 91 | 1 | 26.9% | 81% |
| 11 | BAL | 18-16 | 16.9 | 8 | 12 | 89 | 0 | 37.5% | 88% |
| 12 | CLE | 19-24 | 8.8 | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 28% | 90% |
| 13 | CIN | 44-38 | 16.4 | 3 | 6 | 74 | 1 | 16.7% | 91% |
| 17 | KC | 10-29 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 50 | 0 | 20% | 91% |
| 18 | CIN | 17-19 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 20.7% | 92% |
| Receptions | 59 |
| Targets | 103 |
| Receiving yards | 900 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | -6 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 11.74 |
| Yards per target | 8.74 |
| Catch rate | 57.28% |
| Yards per carry | -3 |
| Snap share | 80.21% |
| Target share | 26.74% |
| Air-yards share | 44.29% |
| WOPR | 0.711 |
| RACR | 0.662 |
| Average depth of target | 13.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.6 |
| Total YAC | 215 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 87.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.99 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.13 |
| Red-zone targets | 16 |
| Red-zone target share | 26.2% |
| End-zone target share | 40% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.31 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.31 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 34 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 18 of 51 |
| Target share | 11 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 4 of 51 |
The offense threw it 498 times. He took 22.44% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| George Pickens ← | 22.44% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 16.99% |
| Calvin Austin III | 12.64% |
| Najee Harris | 10.46% |
| Jaylen Warren | 10.24% |
| Van Jefferson | 8.71% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 59 | 13.14 | 9.1 | 25.2% |
| Justin Fields | 6 | 44 | 9.88 | 8.25 | 28.78% |
3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 23.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.8 in those and 11.53 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 16 against CIN — 35.5 PPR on 6 targets and a 24% target share, in a game that finished 34-11. His worst was Week 18 against BAL at 0.3, on 0 targets, final score 17-10. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.8; in the 6 decided by more, 13.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 11.2 points per game. He scored 12.28, 8.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.79 expected, a gap of -1.8.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 7-30 | 8.6 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 15.6% | 89% |
| 2 | CLE | 26-22 | 22.7 | 4 | 10 | 127 | 1 | 34.5% | 85% |
| 3 | LV | 23-18 | 11.5 | 4 | 6 | 75 | 0 | 22.2% | 89% |
| 4 | HOU | 6-30 | 5.5 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 25.9% | 98% |
| 5 | BAL | 17-10 | 26.6 | 6 | 10 | 130 | 1 | 32.3% | 88% |
| 7 | LA | 24-17 | 15.7 | 5 | 8 | 107 | 0 | 34.8% | 90% |
| 8 | JAX | 10-20 | 9.2 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 12.5% | 93% |
| 9 | TEN | 20-16 | 1.9 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 17.2% | 89% |
| 10 | GB | 23-19 | 7.5 | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 18.2% | 95% |
| 11 | CLE | 10-13 | 7.7 | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 24% | 92% |
| 12 | CIN | 16-10 | 8.8 | 3 | 5 | 58 | 0 | 15.6% | 75% |
| 13 | ARI | 10-24 | 12.6 | 4 | 5 | 86 | 0 | 18.5% | 80% |
| 14 | NE | 18-21 | 6.9 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 17.1% | 86% |
| 15 | IND | 13-30 | 7.7 | 3 | 7 | 47 | 0 | 26.9% | 93% |
| 16 | CIN | 34-11 | 35.5 | 4 | 6 | 195 | 2 | 24% | 78% |
| 17 | SEA | 30-23 | 20.1 | 7 | 9 | 131 | 0 | 42.9% | 78% |
| 18 | BAL | 17-10 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 81% |
| Receptions | 63 |
| Targets | 106 |
| Receiving yards | 1,140 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 18 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 12.28 |
| Yards per target | 10.75 |
| Catch rate | 59.43% |
| Yards per carry | 6 |
| Snap share | 87% |
| Target share | 22.48% |
| Air-yards share | 37.71% |
| WOPR | 0.602 |
| RACR | 0.722 |
| Average depth of target | 13.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.9 |
| Total YAC | 388 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 100.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.68 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.04 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 20.4% |
| End-zone target share | 27.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.79 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.79 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 34 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 3 of 51 |
| Target share | 32 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 15 of 51 |
The offense threw it 506 times. He took 21.9% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| George Pickens ← | 21.9% |
| Diontae Johnson | 17.98% |
| Jaylen Warren | 15.29% |
| Allen Robinson | 10.12% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 9.71% |
| Najee Harris | 7.85% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 10 | 68 | 11.65 | 9.41 | 24.03% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 4 | 23 | 9.1 | 7.57 | 18.75% |
| Mason Rudolph | 3 | 15 | 18.63 | 21.73 | 22.3% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 27.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.32 in those and 11.79 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 11 against CIN — 18.3 PPR on 6 targets and a 15.8% target share, in a game that finished 30-37. His worst was Week 8 against PHI at 0, on 3 targets, final score 13-35. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.6; in the 5 decided by more, 10.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 8.4 points per game. He scored 9.79, 16% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 23-20 | 1.3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8.1% | 71% |
| 2 | NE | 14-17 | 3.3 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 6.3% | 85% |
| 3 | CLE | 17-29 | 6.9 | 3 | 7 | 39 | 0 | 21.9% | 76% |
| 4 | NYJ | 20-24 | 16.2 | 6 | 8 | 102 | 0 | 32% | 70% |
| 5 | BUF | 3-38 | 14.3 | 6 | 8 | 83 | 0 | 15.7% | 76% |
| 6 | TB | 20-18 | 5.8 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 22.2% | 83% |
| 7 | MIA | 10-16 | 18.1 | 6 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 14.3% | 79% |
| 8 | PHI | 13-35 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7.5% | 86% |
| 10 | NO | 20-10 | 14.5 | 3 | 4 | 32 | 1 | 15.4% | 75% |
| 11 | CIN | 30-37 | 18.3 | 4 | 6 | 83 | 1 | 15.8% | 86% |
| 12 | IND | 24-17 | 10.7 | 3 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 21.4% | 78% |
| 13 | ATL | 19-16 | 1.2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7.4% | 68% |
| 14 | BAL | 14-16 | 10.8 | 3 | 3 | 78 | 0 | 9.7% | 76% |
| 15 | CAR | 24-16 | 7.3 | 2 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 23.8% | 66% |
| 16 | LV | 13-10 | 16.7 | 5 | 5 | 57 | 1 | 13.9% | 81% |
| 17 | BAL | 16-13 | 4.9 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 14.8% | 73% |
| 18 | CLE | 28-14 | 16.2 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 1 | 21.4% | 63% |
| Receptions | 52 |
| Targets | 84 |
| Receiving yards | 801 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 24 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 9.79 |
| Yards per target | 9.54 |
| Catch rate | 61.9% |
| Yards per carry | 8 |
| Snap share | 76% |
| Target share | 15.98% |
| Air-yards share | 26.88% |
| WOPR | 0.427 |
| RACR | 0.635 |
| Average depth of target | 14.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 13.4 |
| Total YAC | 104 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 109.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.67 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.12 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 11.1% |
| End-zone target share | 19.2% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 3.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.73 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.27 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.43 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 45 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 8 of 51 |
| Target share | 46 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 35 of 51 |
The offense threw it 571 times. He took 15.47% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Diontae Johnson | 27.07% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 18.05% |
| George Pickens ← | 15.47% |
| Najee Harris | 9.76% |
| Chase Claypool | 9.21% |
| Jaylen Warren | 6.08% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 11 | 56 | 10.97 | 8.98 | 15.44% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 6 | 28 | 7.63 | 10.64 | 16.97% |
2 of his 17 games were blowouts, 8.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.15 in those and 9.55 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about George Pickens →