Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 12.77 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 91.8, usage worth 11.2.
28 years old · 5 seasons of experience · 2021 draft class
| SLEEPER | 86.7 |
| ESPN | 112.1 |
| YAHOO | 82 |
| UNDERDOG | 72.8 |
| CBS | 86.4 |
| FFA | 61 |
| Goes around | Round 8, pick 8 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB31 |
| Bye week | 11 |
| ADP standard deviation | 13.7 picks |
Our board has him at 189.8 points, 11.9 per game — 815 rushing yards, 5.8 rushing TDs, 33.3 catches. That is RB4, 61 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 8.7 points per game to a ceiling of 18.8, with the median at 11.9. Boom rate 57%, bust rate 27%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 91.8 on consensus and our board has him 61. We rank him 30.8 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
still literally the guy who played 61%+ of snaps in all four of his team's playoff games mere months before this recording; the only real threat to his role is the org publicly wanting Henderson to be "the guy" going forward, which hasn't actually happened on the field yet.
hold · medium conviction · 2026-08New England Patriots returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, rb1. Drake Maye at quarterback, Mike Vrabel as head coach, Josh McDaniels calling it. The offense projects to 30.7 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 28.3 rushes.
In: Tommy DeVito (qb2), A.J. Brown (wr1), Romeo Doubs (wr2), Jam Miller (rb3), Lan Larison (rb4), Eli Raridon (te2). Out: Stefon Diggs (wr1), Antonio Gibson (rb3), Austin Hooper (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| TreVeyon Henderson | 51.1% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson ← | 39.4% |
| Jam Miller | 7% |
| Lan Larison | 2.6% |
What the offense looks like: This is an offense that is only getting better. TreVeyon Henderson COULD become the true featured RB on this high powered offense. AJ Brown could produce 2-3 more years at a VERY high level before fading. Romeo Doubs fits in very well and if his connection builds with Maye, he could be a very viable WR2 in PPR formats.
Key additions: Romeo Doubs WR from GB on 4 year deal, AJ Brown traded to Patriots by Eagles in June 2026 (will be teams WR1 in 2026). Drafted Caleb Lomu 1st round LT. Drafted TE Eli Raridon 3rd round. Drafted RB Jam Miller 7th round.
Key departures: WR Stefon Diggs (released), RB Antonio Gibson (released), TE Austin Hooper (signed with Falcons), OT Vederian Lowe signed with 49ers (depth)
Notes: Maye dynasty franchise QB. Patriots signed Romeo Doubs from Packers (huge potential and solid player could be WR2). The Patriots WILL trade for AJ Brown from Eagles & he will be their WR1 next year. He has MASSIVE potential with Drake Maye. Henderson should operate as lead back in 2026, but Vrabel has done strange things with playing time for backs & Stevenson will work in. Henry is still TE1, but drafted Raridon round 3 TE — Vrabel uses TEs.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Drake Maye returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (29.5 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.7 att/g.
| Projected carry share | 39.4% |
| Projected carries per game | 9.1 |
| Projected carries, full season | 155 |
| Last season, carries per game | 10.4 |
That is a reduction of 1.3 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 28.3 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: NE rates 24.2 against a league average of 23, 1.2 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.1 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -0.5 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | -4.3 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -2.7 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 | TreVeyon Henderson | +13 |
| 2023 | 3 | Ezekiel Elliott | +11.5 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +20.1% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 2022 | 15.6 | 60% | +3.6% |
| Rachaad White | 2024 | 13.3 | 59% | 0% |
| Travis Etienne | 2024 | 8.7 | 59% | +43.8% |
| Austin Ekeler | 2024 | 11 | 59% | -69.3% |
| Zack Moss | 2023 | 12.1 | 59% | -2% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 1 lost it and 2 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2021, round 4, pick 120 by NWE |
| College | Oklahoma |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 5′11″ |
| Weight | 231 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.64s |
| Vertical | 31.5″ |
| Broad jump | 112″ |
| 3-cone | 7.09s |
| Shuttle | 4.15s |
| Career PPR per game | 12.9 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 29.1% |
| Bust rate | 23.6% |
| Games missed per season | 1.4 |
| Injury history | Ankle, Foot, Toe |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.04 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 18 against MIA — 35.3 PPR on 9 touches and a 10% target share, in a game that finished 38-10. His worst was Week 6 against NO at 1.8, on 14 touches, final score 25-19. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.7; in the 6 decided by more, 16.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 11.2 points per game. He scored 12.77, 15% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 13-20 | 4.7 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 6.7% | 65% |
| 2 | MIA | 33-27 | 21.2 | 5 | 5 | 88 | 11 | 54 | 0 | 21.7% | 65% |
| 3 | PIT | 14-21 | 4.6 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 8.3% | 36% |
| 4 | CAR | 42-13 | 5.1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 0 | 5.9% | 57% |
| 5 | BUF | 23-20 | 14.7 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 7.1% | 52% |
| 6 | NO | 25-19 | 1.8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 18 | 0 | 4.2% | 72% |
| 7 | TEN | 31-13 | 16.8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 88 | 1 | 8.3% | 75% |
| 8 | CLE | 32-13 | 5.9 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 14 | 34 | 0 | 8.7% | 74% |
| 12 | CIN | 26-20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 6.1% | 31% |
| 13 | NYG | 33-15 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 12 | 40 | 0 | 10% | 58% |
| 15 | BUF | 31-35 | 10.7 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 6 | 50 | 0 | 13.6% | 67% |
| 16 | BAL | 28-24 | 17.8 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 8 | 51 | 1 | 7.1% | 84% |
| 17 | NYJ | 42-10 | 27.2 | 5 | 5 | 55 | 8 | 47 | 2 | 20% | 48% |
| 18 | MIA | 38-10 | 35.3 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 7 | 131 | 3 | 10% | 47% |
| Receptions | 32 |
| Targets | 37 |
| Receiving yards | 345 |
| Carries | 130 |
| Rushing yards | 603 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 12.77 |
| Yards per target | 9.32 |
| Catch rate | 86.49% |
| Yards per carry | 4.64 |
| Snap share | 59.36% |
| Target share | 9.84% |
| Air-yards share | 4.72% |
| WOPR | 0.181 |
| RACR | 3.564 |
| Average depth of target | 4.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 2.6 |
| Total YAC | 263 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 123.5 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.94 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.31 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.9% |
| End-zone target share | 7.1% |
| Red-zone carry share | 30.9% |
| Goal-line carry share | 42.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.19 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.81 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 6.18 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 22 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 1 of 49 |
| Target share | 20 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 2 of 49 |
The offense threw it 502 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Stefon Diggs | 21.29% |
| Hunter Henry | 18.16% |
| Mack Hollins | 13.57% |
| Kayshon Boutte | 9.6% |
| Demario Douglas | 9.6% |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 8.77% |
6 of his 14 games were blowouts, 56.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.88 in those and 9.69 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 8 against NYJ — 23.5 PPR on 23 touches and a 10.3% target share, in a game that finished 25-22. His worst was Week 17 against LAC at 0.1, on 3 touches, final score 7-40. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.7; in the 7 decided by more, 4.9. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 13.1 points per game. He scored 11.73, 10.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.24 expected, a gap of -1.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 16-10 | 21.6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 120 | 1 | 13% | 78% |
| 2 | SEA | 20-23 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 81 | 1 | 20.8% | 72% |
| 3 | NYJ | 3-24 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 0% | 46% |
| 4 | SF | 13-30 | 8.2 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 13 | 43 | 0 | 15.6% | 55% |
| 5 | MIA | 10-15 | 19.2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 89 | 1 | 13.3% | 47% |
| 7 | JAX | 16-32 | 4.5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 8.3% | 50% |
| 8 | NYJ | 25-22 | 23.5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 20 | 48 | 2 | 10.3% | 81% |
| 9 | TEN | 17-20 | 22.4 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 10 | 16 | 2 | 12.8% | 74% |
| 10 | CHI | 19-3 | 8.7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 74 | 0 | 4.3% | 70% |
| 11 | LA | 22-28 | 12.9 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 73 | 0 | 10.8% | 76% |
| 12 | MIA | 15-34 | 3.3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 5.4% | 42% |
| 13 | IND | 24-25 | 12.4 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 18 | 73 | 0 | 10% | 78% |
| 15 | ARI | 17-30 | 9.5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 13 | 69 | 0 | 4.3% | 65% |
| 16 | BUF | 21-24 | 12.3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 12 | 60 | 1 | 3.2% | 44% |
| 17 | LAC | 7-40 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4.3% | 45% |
| Receptions | 33 |
| Targets | 41 |
| Receiving yards | 168 |
| Carries | 207 |
| Rushing yards | 801 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 11.73 |
| Yards per target | 4.1 |
| Catch rate | 80.49% |
| Yards per carry | 3.87 |
| Snap share | 61.53% |
| Target share | 9.09% |
| Air-yards share | -1.07% |
| WOPR | 0.13 |
| RACR | 0.856 |
| Average depth of target | -1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -2.1 |
| Total YAC | 237 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 91.9 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.49 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -2.52 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.7% |
| End-zone target share | 8% |
| Red-zone carry share | 58.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 63.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.24 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.24 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 6.8 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 27 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 39 of 46 |
| Target share | 25 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 28 of 46 |
The offense threw it 529 times. He took 8.23% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Hunter Henry | 19.48% |
| Demario Douglas | 17.47% |
| Kayshon Boutte | 13.65% |
| Austin Hooper | 11.85% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson ← | 8.23% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 7.63% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 9 | 21 | 9.57 | 5.43 | 7.04% |
| Jacoby Brissett | 6 | 20 | 14.97 | 2.7 | 12.17% |
4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 6.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.98 in those and 17.66 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 9 against WAS — 22.9 PPR on 15 touches and a 14% target share, in a game that finished 17-20. His worst was Week 5 against NO at 2.4, on 10 touches, final score 0-34. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.5; in the 3 decided by more, 5.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 14.1 points per game. He scored 12.14, 13.9% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 20-25 | 14.9 | 6 | 6 | 64 | 12 | 25 | 0 | 11.1% | 73% |
| 2 | MIA | 17-24 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 50 | 1 | 7.1% | 73% |
| 3 | NYJ | 15-10 | 7.2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 59 | 0 | 14.8% | 65% |
| 4 | DAL | 3-38 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 30 | 0 | 10.3% | 64% |
| 5 | NO | 0-34 | 2.4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 0 | 6.5% | 50% |
| 6 | LV | 17-21 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 10 | 46 | 1 | 19.4% | 65% |
| 7 | BUF | 29-25 | 14.5 | 6 | 6 | 51 | 9 | 34 | 0 | 20% | 65% |
| 8 | MIA | 17-31 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 0 | 14.3% | 58% |
| 9 | WAS | 17-20 | 22.9 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 9 | 87 | 1 | 14% | 63% |
| 10 | IND | 6-10 | 13.2 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 20 | 88 | 0 | 19.2% | 67% |
| 12 | NYG | 7-10 | 21.7 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 98 | 1 | 14.3% | 78% |
| 13 | LAC | 0-6 | 2.9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 0 | 4.2% | 27% |
| Receptions | 38 |
| Targets | 51 |
| Receiving yards | 238 |
| Carries | 156 |
| Rushing yards | 619 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 12.14 |
| Yards per target | 4.67 |
| Catch rate | 74.51% |
| Yards per carry | 3.97 |
| Snap share | 62.33% |
| Target share | 12.93% |
| Air-yards share | -0.31% |
| WOPR | 0.191 |
| RACR | -0.055 |
| Average depth of target | 0.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.6 |
| Total YAC | 261 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 75.4 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -1.5 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.07 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 10% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 42.2% |
| Goal-line carry share | 37.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.55 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.55 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.41 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 27 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 37 of 49 |
| Target share | 12 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 22 of 49 |
The offense threw it 557 times. He took 9.43% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Demario Douglas | 14.6% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 12.01% |
| Hunter Henry | 11.28% |
| DeVante Parker | 10.17% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 10.17% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson ← | 9.43% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 11 | 50 | 12.98 | 4.76 | 13.73% |
| Bailey Zappe | 1 | 1 | 2.9 | 0 | 4.2% |
2 of his 12 games were blowouts, 5.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.2 in those and 14.48 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 6 against CLE — 25.1 PPR on 24 touches and a 16.1% target share, in a game that finished 38-15. His worst was Week 14 against ARI at 3, on 6 touches, final score 27-13. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.7; in the 9 decided by more, 15.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 15.5 points per game. He scored 14.65, 5.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 7-20 | 4.7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 0 | 6.7% | 25% |
| 2 | PIT | 17-14 | 6.1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 47 | 0 | 5.9% | 62% |
| 3 | BAL | 26-37 | 20.1 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 12 | 73 | 1 | 15.6% | 62% |
| 4 | GB | 24-27 | 12.9 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 66 | 0 | 25% | 55% |
| 5 | DET | 29-0 | 19.5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 25 | 161 | 0 | 9.5% | 90% |
| 6 | CLE | 38-15 | 25.1 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 19 | 76 | 2 | 16.1% | 86% |
| 7 | CHI | 14-33 | 23.8 | 8 | 8 | 59 | 11 | 39 | 1 | 28.6% | 77% |
| 8 | NYJ | 22-17 | 21.3 | 7 | 7 | 72 | 16 | 71 | 0 | 21.9% | 63% |
| 9 | IND | 26-3 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 60 | 1 | 24.1% | 73% |
| 11 | NYJ | 10-3 | 14.2 | 6 | 6 | 56 | 15 | 26 | 0 | 22.2% | 78% |
| 12 | MIN | 26-33 | 20.2 | 9 | 10 | 76 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 28.6% | 82% |
| 13 | BUF | 10-24 | 13.8 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 10 | 54 | 0 | 23.5% | 98% |
| 14 | ARI | 27-13 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 9.1% | 22% |
| 15 | LV | 24-30 | 24.8 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 19 | 172 | 1 | 10% | 66% |
| 16 | CIN | 18-22 | 3.3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 0 | 16.1% | 91% |
| 17 | MIA | 23-21 | 7.1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 12.5% | 57% |
| 18 | BUF | 23-35 | 13.2 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 15.4% | 49% |
| Receptions | 69 |
| Targets | 88 |
| Receiving yards | 421 |
| Carries | 210 |
| Rushing yards | 1,040 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 14.65 |
| Yards per target | 4.78 |
| Catch rate | 78.41% |
| Yards per carry | 4.95 |
| Snap share | 66.82% |
| Target share | 17.11% |
| Air-yards share | -0.36% |
| WOPR | 0.254 |
| RACR | 0.214 |
| Average depth of target | 0 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.8 |
| Total YAC | 474 |
| Broken tackles | 11 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 90.4 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.69 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.56 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 13.7% |
| End-zone target share | 5.9% |
| Red-zone carry share | 51.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 60% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.39 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.39 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 6.73 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 10 of 42 |
| Yards per target | 26 of 42 |
| Target share | 4 of 42 |
| Air-yards share | 27 of 42 |
The offense threw it 540 times. He took 17.15% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jakobi Meyers | 18.71% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson ← | 17.15% |
| Hunter Henry | 11.5% |
| Nelson Agholor | 10.33% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 9.36% |
| DeVante Parker | 9.16% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 13 | 68 | 12.91 | 4.56 | 16.28% |
| Bailey Zappe | 4 | 20 | 20.32 | 5.55 | 19.8% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 33.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 21.1 in those and 13.74 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 10 against CLE — 27.4 PPR on 25 touches and a 20% target share, in a game that finished 45-7. His worst was Week 1 against MIA at 0.1, on 2 touches, final score 16-17. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.9; in the 7 decided by more, 12.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 9.3 points per game. He scored 9.57, 3.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 16-17 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2.6% | 7% |
| 5 | HOU | 25-22 | 2.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 23 | 0 | 0% | 34% |
| 6 | DAL | 29-35 | 15.2 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 5 | 23 | 1 | 14.3% | 33% |
| 8 | LAC | 27-24 | 4.1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 5.9% | 16% |
| 9 | CAR | 24-6 | 12.6 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 10 | 62 | 0 | 11.1% | 27% |
| 10 | CLE | 45-7 | 27.4 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 20 | 100 | 2 | 20% | 55% |
| 11 | ATL | 25-0 | 8.5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 69 | 0 | 3.8% | 34% |
| 12 | TEN | 36-13 | 4.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 46 | 0 | 3.1% | 33% |
| 13 | BUF | 14-10 | 7.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 78 | 0 | 0% | 63% |
| 15 | IND | 17-27 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 36 | 0 | 2.3% | 46% |
| 17 | JAX | 50-10 | 22.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 107 | 2 | 0% | 56% |
| 18 | MIA | 24-33 | 4.6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 6.7% | 15% |
| Receptions | 14 |
| Targets | 18 |
| Receiving yards | 123 |
| Carries | 133 |
| Rushing yards | 606 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 9.57 |
| Yards per target | 6.83 |
| Catch rate | 77.78% |
| Yards per carry | 4.56 |
| Snap share | 34.92% |
| Target share | 5.82% |
| Air-yards share | -0.3% |
| WOPR | 0.085 |
| RACR | -1.772 |
| Average depth of target | -0.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 10.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.6 |
| Total YAC | 145 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 95.1 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.25 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.19 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 3.7% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 26.5% |
| Goal-line carry share | 24.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.76 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.76 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 4.42 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 36 of 50 |
| Yards per target | 13 of 50 |
| Target share | 42 of 50 |
| Air-yards share | 34 of 50 |
The offense threw it 535 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jakobi Meyers | 24.05% |
| Hunter Henry | 14.31% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 13.36% |
| Nelson Agholor | 12.21% |
| Brandon Bolden | 9.35% |
| Jonnu Smith | 8.59% |
5 of his 12 games were blowouts, 66% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.16 in those and 5.9 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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