Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 11.09 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 49.2, usage worth 12.
24 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| SLEEPER | 46 |
| ESPN | 47 |
| YAHOO | 47.7 |
| UNDERDOG | 62.7 |
| CBS | 55.9 |
| FFA | 58 |
| Goes around | Round 5, pick 1 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE4 |
| Bye week | 13 |
| ADP standard deviation | 4.6 picks |
Our board has him at 193.5 points, 12.7 per game — 75.7 catches, 857 yards, 4.5 TDs. That is TE2, 58 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 9.2 points per game to a ceiling of 19.2, with the median at 12.7. Boom rate 52%, bust rate 28%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 49.2 on consensus and our board has him 58. We rank him 8.8 picks worse than the room drafts him, so at ADP he is mildly overpriced. That is an objection to the price and not to the player — if he falls past his slot he can be exactly the right pick.
Biggest TD underperformer at TE; 2nd in inside-10 targets and his RZ competition (Pittman) is gone, year two. Fine fallback at late round 5, but unclear he's the top target over Pierce/Downs. Use only if the early-TE plan (Bowers/Loveland) misses.
hesitant · medium conviction · 2026-06-05Indianapolis Colts returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1. Daniel Jones at quarterback, Shane Steichen as head coach, Jim Bob Cooter calling it. The offense projects to 32.5 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 26.1 rushes.
In: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (wr3), Deion Burks (wr5), Seth McGowan (rb3), Anderson Castle (rb4). Out: Michael Pittman Jr (wr1), Adonai Mitchell (wr4), Ameer Abdullah (rb3).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 19.1%, with a bear case of 17.4% and a bull case of 20.7% and a full range of 16% to 23.5%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Josh Downs | 20.1% |
| Tyler Warren ← | 19.1% |
| Alec Pierce | 17% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 10.1% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 10% |
| Deion Burks | 4.8% |
What the offense looks like: The Colts seriously need Daniel Jones to BE THAT GUY. Taylor, Downs, and especially Alec Pierce rely on having a highly productive passing game that helps lift the entire offense as whole. Tyler Warren has shown flashes of being the next George Kittle, really awesome player.
Key additions: Colts brought in WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in free agency. Westbrook-Ikhine was a highly dynamic WR while in Tennessee. Could be nohting, but could help.
Key departures: WR Michael Pittman Jr traded to Steelers. QB Anthony Richardson requested a trade & will not play again for the Colts.
Notes: Anthony Richardson will be traded or released. Daniel Jones on track for full recovery from torn achilles & landed extension. Very positive for offense. Jonathan Taylor aging but HIGHLY productive. Alec Pierce lands MASSVIVE 4 year contract & Colts invested in him as their WR1. Josh Downs is primed for an increase workload & could truly break out in 2026. Michael Pittman Jr. traded to Steelers. Tyler Warren is a top TE in dynasty & could have a MASSIVE season next year.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Daniel Jones returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.1 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.5 att/g.
25 historical comps for TEs age ~22, prior share 21.5%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 18.4%, p25-p75 [15.9%, 20.6%], tails [13.9%, 24.7%]. Closest comps: Trey McBride 2023→2024 (ARI: 19.8%→28.6%); Evan Engram 2023→2024 (JAX: 20.2%→25.5%); Dalton Kincaid 2023→2024 (BUF: 17.7%→18.6%).
self-anchored 30% to own 21.5% role (1yr), 70% to comp median 18.4%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: IND rates 23.3 against a league average of 23, 0.3 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +1.1 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +4.7 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -0.8 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +2.9 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Tyler Warren study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +19.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 2020 | 11 | 63% | +11.6% |
| Noah Fant | 2021 | 9.9 | 60% | -35.3% |
| Sam LaPorta | 2023 | 14.1 | 58% | -15.2% |
| Noah Fant | 2020 | 10.7 | 57% | -4.5% |
| Brock Bowers | 2024 | 15.5 | 56% | -0.3% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 3 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 1, pick 14 by IND |
| College | Penn St. |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′6″ |
| Weight | 256 lb |
His best game was Week 4 against LA — 18.3 PPR on 6 targets and a 18.8% target share, in a game that finished 20-27. His worst was Week 14 against JAX at 3.7, on 6 targets, final score 19-36. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.7; in the 7 decided by more, 10.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 12 points per game. He scored 11.09, 7.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 5.55 expected, a gap of -1.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 33-8 | 14.9 | 7 | 9 | 76 | 0 | 31% | 73% |
| 2 | DEN | 29-28 | 11.9 | 4 | 7 | 79 | 0 | 21.2% | 93% |
| 3 | TEN | 41-20 | 6.8 | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 20% | 68% |
| 4 | LA | 20-27 | 18.3 | 5 | 6 | 70 | 1 | 18.8% | 89% |
| 5 | LV | 40-6 | 14.4 | 4 | 4 | 44 | 1 | 12.9% | 71% |
| 6 | ARI | 31-27 | 18.3 | 6 | 9 | 63 | 1 | 30% | 88% |
| 7 | LAC | 38-24 | 16.9 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 1 | 15.6% | 92% |
| 8 | TEN | 38-14 | 9.3 | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 17.9% | 74% |
| 9 | PIT | 20-27 | 7.6 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 14.6% | 85% |
| 10 | ATL | 31-25 | 17.9 | 8 | 10 | 99 | 0 | 38.5% | 88% |
| 12 | KC | 20-23 | 9.5 | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 | 22.6% | 86% |
| 13 | HOU | 16-20 | 11.2 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 1 | 16% | 87% |
| 14 | JAX | 19-36 | 3.7 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 16.7% | 93% |
| 15 | SEA | 16-18 | 4.9 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 23.1% | 82% |
| 16 | SF | 27-48 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 25% | 88% |
| 17 | JAX | 17-23 | 9.3 | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 17.2% | 86% |
| 18 | HOU | 30-38 | 7.6 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 24.2% | 82% |
| Receptions | 76 |
| Targets | 112 |
| Receiving yards | 817 |
| Carries | 6 |
| Rushing yards | 8 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 11.09 |
| Yards per target | 7.29 |
| Catch rate | 67.86% |
| Yards per carry | 1.33 |
| Snap share | 83.82% |
| Target share | 21.49% |
| Air-yards share | 14.69% |
| WOPR | 0.425 |
| RACR | 1.818 |
| Average depth of target | 5.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.5 |
| Total YAC | 474 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 93.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.93 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.25 |
| Red-zone targets | 21 |
| Red-zone target share | 27.3% |
| End-zone target share | 19.2% |
| Red-zone carry share | 3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 8.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.55 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.55 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.18 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 7 of 13 |
| Yards per target | 9 of 13 |
| Target share | 5 of 13 |
| Air-yards share | 11 of 13 |
The offense threw it 546 times. He took 21.21% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyler Warren ← | 21.21% |
| Michael Pittman | 21.02% |
| Josh Downs | 16.67% |
| Alec Pierce | 15.91% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 10.42% |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 3.79% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 12 | 78 | 13.08 | 8.77 | 21.59% |
| Philip Rivers | 3 | 20 | 6.73 | 4.6 | 21.77% |
| Riley Leonard | 2 | 14 | 5.65 | 2.93 | 20.45% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 29.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.18 in those and 11.65 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Tyler Warren →