Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 7.85 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 131.3, usage worth 8.9.
23 years old · 2 seasons of experience · 2024 draft class
| SLEEPER | 136.3 |
| ESPN | 137.2 |
| YAHOO | 128.4 |
| UNDERDOG | 104.1 |
| CBS | 123.2 |
| FFA | 115 |
| Goes around | Round 11, pick 11 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR50 |
| Bye week | 5 |
| ADP standard deviation | 6.7 picks |
Our board has him at 152.8 points, 9.3 per game — 51.8 catches, 648 yards, 4 TDs. That is WR5, 114 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 7.3 points per game to a ceiling of 14.2, with the median at 9.3. Boom rate 52%, bust rate 21%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 131.3 on consensus and our board has him 114. We rank him 17.3 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
Kansas City Chiefs returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1, oc. Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, Andy Reid as head coach, Eric Bieniemy calling it. The offense projects to 34 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 25.8 rushes.
In: Justin Fields (qb2), Cyrus Allen (wr5), Andrew Armstrong (wr7), Kenneth Walker III (rb1), Emmett Johnson (rb3), Emari Demercado (rb4). Out: Marquise Brown (wr3), Isiah Pacheco (rb1), Kareem Hunt (rb2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 12.1%, with a bear case of 10.7% and a bull case of 14.8% and a full range of 6.3% to 15.2%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Rashee Rice | 19.1% |
| Travis Kelce | 13.3% |
| Tyquan Thornton | 12.4% |
| Xavier Worthy ← | 12.1% |
| Brashard Smith | 7.7% |
| Cyrus Allen | 7.4% |
What the offense looks like: Highly relevant offense to own pieces of. Mahomes needs to return to his MVP form to support WR other than Rice, but Kenneth Walker III may be about to feast in KC if he can stay healthy. Of note, if Walker were to suffer an injury, RB Emmett Johnson has a great opportunity to fill in and be a valuable back.
Key additions: OC Eric Bieniemy retuns to Chiefs as OC. Previously served as OC from 2018 - 2022. Add RB Kenneth Walker III in free agency on massive 3 year deal.
Key departures: Isiah Pacheco left Chiefs for Lions in free agency. RB Kareem Hunt is also likely gone from the team. WR Hollywood Brown also left to the Eagles in free agency. Chiefs lost RT Jawaan Taylor in free agency (mid).
Notes: Rashee Rice is slotted to operate as WR1 & holds high value for 2026 season. Mahomes should be recovered from torn ACL. Kelce is in his final season most likely. Xavier Worthy has struggled to produce, could break out, but not looking great right now. Chiefs sign Kenneth Walker III in free agency (reigning superbowl MVP RB from seahawks) and he is set for monster season. Brashard Smith should operate as receiving back and Emmett Johnson will battle for 3rd string back with Emari Demercado.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Patrick Mahomes returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.4 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 34 att/g; New OC Eric Bieniemy — pass rate and tempo may shift.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~23, prior share 17.2%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 14.1%, p25-p75 [10.1%, 19.3%], tails [0.0%, 20.2%]. Closest comps: Romeo Doubs 2024→2025 (GB: 17.9%→19.5%); Donovan Peoples-Jones 2022→2023 (CLE: 17.4%→6.3%); George Pickens 2022→2023 (PIT: 16.0%→24.2%). Adjustment: -6% from role_decline (real opportunity collapse)
self-anchored 45% to own 17.2% role (2yr), 55% to comp median 14.1%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: KC rates 24.1 against a league average of 23, 1.1 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.5 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -1.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | -5.1 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -4.9 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 | Tyquan Thornton | +9 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -28.7% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, WRs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 2023 | 8.9 | 67% | +17.5% |
| Treylon Burks | 2022 | 8 | 63% | -21.2% |
| K.J. Hamler | 2020 | 7.5 | 63% | -26.8% |
| Jameson Williams | 2024 | 14.1 | 60% | +16.6% |
| Chase Claypool | 2022 | 7 | 59% | -55.1% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2024, round 1, pick 28 by KAN |
| College | Texas |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 5′11″ |
| Weight | 165 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.21s |
| Vertical | 41″ |
| Broad jump | 131″ |
| Career PPR per game | 10 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 25% |
| Bust rate | 16.7% |
| Games missed per season | 1 |
| Injury history | Shoulder |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.03 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 4 against BAL — 17.1 PPR on 8 targets and a 22.9% target share, in a game that finished 37-20. His worst was Week 1 against LAC at 0, on 1 targets, final score 21-27. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.2; in the 6 decided by more, 10.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 8.9 points per game. He scored 7.85, 11.9% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 21-27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.6% | 5% |
| 4 | BAL | 37-20 | 17.1 | 5 | 8 | 83 | 0 | 22.9% | 59% |
| 5 | JAX | 28-31 | 11.1 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 0 | 22.5% | 77% |
| 6 | DET | 30-17 | 10.6 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 14.3% | 73% |
| 7 | LV | 31-0 | 7.8 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 11.8% | 59% |
| 8 | WAS | 28-7 | 10.3 | 5 | 7 | 53 | 0 | 21.9% | 84% |
| 9 | BUF | 21-28 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 24.1% | 83% |
| 11 | DEN | 19-22 | 5.5 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 11.6% | 76% |
| 12 | IND | 23-20 | 9.9 | 4 | 8 | 59 | 0 | 18.6% | 77% |
| 13 | DAL | 28-31 | 11.4 | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 18.8% | 88% |
| 14 | HOU | 10-20 | 8.5 | 3 | 4 | 55 | 0 | 13.8% | 77% |
| 15 | LAC | 13-16 | 5.5 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 13.3% | 67% |
| 16 | TEN | 9-26 | 6.1 | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 13.6% | 84% |
| 17 | DEN | 13-20 | 0.1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15% | 79% |
| Receptions | 42 |
| Targets | 73 |
| Receiving yards | 532 |
| Carries | 11 |
| Rushing yards | 87 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 7.85 |
| Yards per target | 7.29 |
| Catch rate | 57.53% |
| Yards per carry | 7.91 |
| Snap share | 70.57% |
| Target share | 16.06% |
| Air-yards share | 26.78% |
| WOPR | 0.426 |
| RACR | 0.576 |
| Average depth of target | 12.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.1 |
| Total YAC | 193 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 79.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.06 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.26 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 7.7% |
| End-zone target share | 4.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.39 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.39 |
The offense threw it 584 times. He took 13.32% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Travis Kelce | 19.71% |
| Rashee Rice | 14.23% |
| Marquise Brown | 13.5% |
| Xavier Worthy ← | 13.32% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 8.21% |
| Noah Gray | 6.75% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 12 | 67 | 8.64 | 7.33 | 16.35% |
| Chris Oladokun | 2 | 6 | 3.1 | 6.83 | 14.3% |
4 of his 14 games were blowouts, 37.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.33 in those and 6.19 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 17 against PIT — 22.9 PPR on 9 targets and a 23.7% target share, in a game that finished 29-10. His worst was Week 9 against TB at -1, on 2 targets, final score 30-24. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.1; in the 5 decided by more, 15.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 11.1 points per game. He scored 11.7, 20.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 27-20 | 20.8 | 2 | 3 | 47 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 11.1% | 63% |
| 2 | CIN | 26-25 | 4.2 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 17.4% | 68% |
| 3 | ATL | 22-17 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 11.1% | 50% |
| 4 | LAC | 17-10 | 16.3 | 3 | 4 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14.3% | 73% |
| 5 | NO | 26-13 | 11.8 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 17.6% | 67% |
| 7 | SF | 28-18 | 5.4 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 32% | 60% |
| 8 | LV | 27-20 | 13.7 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22.9% | 53% |
| 9 | TB | 30-24 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -10 | 0 | 4.8% | 68% |
| 10 | DEN | 16-14 | 2.1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10% | 75% |
| 11 | BUF | 21-30 | 16.8 | 4 | 5 | 61 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 16.1% | 58% |
| 12 | CAR | 30-27 | 9.1 | 4 | 6 | 46 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16.7% | 64% |
| 13 | LV | 19-17 | 10.4 | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15.6% | 59% |
| 14 | LAC | 19-17 | 9.6 | 5 | 6 | 41 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16.7% | 83% |
| 15 | CLE | 21-7 | 19.6 | 6 | 11 | 46 | 3 | 30 | 1 | 28.9% | 81% |
| 16 | HOU | 27-19 | 20.5 | 7 | 11 | 65 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 26.8% | 80% |
| 17 | PIT | 29-10 | 22.9 | 8 | 9 | 79 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 23.7% | 85% |
| Receptions | 59 |
| Targets | 98 |
| Receiving yards | 638 |
| Carries | 20 |
| Rushing yards | 104 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 11.7 |
| Yards per target | 6.51 |
| Catch rate | 60.2% |
| Yards per carry | 5.2 |
| Snap share | 67.94% |
| Target share | 17.86% |
| Air-yards share | 25.1% |
| WOPR | 0.443 |
| RACR | 1.486 |
| Average depth of target | 9.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 3.9 |
| Total YAC | 407 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 91.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.21 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.19 |
| Red-zone targets | 24 |
| Red-zone target share | 20.7% |
| End-zone target share | 8.8% |
| Red-zone carry share | 8.5% |
| Goal-line carry share | 3.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.11 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.11 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.8 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 36 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 46 of 51 |
| Target share | 46 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 38 of 51 |
The offense threw it 600 times. He took 17.22% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Travis Kelce | 23.37% |
| Xavier Worthy ← | 17.22% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 10.37% |
| Noah Gray | 8.61% |
| Samaje Perine | 6.15% |
| Kareem Hunt | 5.62% |
1 of his 16 games were blowouts, 12.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 22.9 in those and 10.06 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Xavier Worthy →