Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 10.45 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 158.6, usage worth 10.7.
30 years old · 8 seasons of experience · 2018 draft class
| SLEEPER | 170.5 |
| ESPN | 167.6 |
| YAHOO | 128.8 |
| UNDERDOG | 168.5 |
| CBS | 167.3 |
| FFA | 167 |
| Goes around | Round 14, pick 3 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE23 |
| Bye week | 8 |
| ADP standard deviation | 19.9 picks |
Our board has him at 111.3 points, 7.3 per game — 49 catches, 467 yards, 2.6 TDs. That is TE5, 163 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 6.2 points per game to a ceiling of 11.7, with the median at 7.3. Boom rate 60%, bust rate 15%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 158.6 on consensus and our board has him 163. We rank him 4.4 picks worse than the room drafts him, so at ADP he is mildly overpriced. That is an objection to the price and not to the player — if he falls past his slot he can be exactly the right pick.
Houston Texans returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1. CJ Stroud at quarterback, Demeco Ryans as head coach, Nick Caley calling it. The offense projects to 34 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.5 rushes.
In: Nathaniel Dell (wr3), Lewis Bond (wr7), David Montgomery (rb1), Noah Whittington (rb4), Foster Moreau (te2). Out: Nick Chubb (rb2), Cade Stover (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 14%, with a bear case of 13.2% and a bull case of 15.9% and a full range of 12.7% to 16.9%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Nico Collins | 21.3% |
| Dalton Schultz ← | 14% |
| Jayden Higgins | 11.5% |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 8.6% |
| Jaylin Noel | 7.1% |
| Nathaniel Dell | 6.2% |
What the offense looks like: If this offense could produce at a higher level than 2025, this will be an offense you want to have pieces of. David Montgomery COULD be a very interesting high end RB2 as long as RB Woody Marks does not eat into his PT too much. Houston also has arguably the best defense in the entire NFL. they will keep them in every game & force turnovers to get this offense the ball back.
Key additions: Texans signed starting LG Wyatt Teller & starting RT Braden Smith this offseason. Also drafted C Keylan Rutledge in the 1st round. all 3 upgrades to last year. Should help protect CJ Stroud & HOPEFULLY GET A RUN GAME GOING IN HOUSTON. Traded for Lions RB David Montgomery. Joe mixon saw great success in 2024 & Montgomery COULD see a high degree of success too. Drafted WR Lewis Bond as well who does not have immediate upside.
Notes: Nico Collins remains a high producing dynasty WR when CJ Stroud plays well. Texans have to improve O line play for offense to provide large fantasy relevance. Traded for David Montgomery from the Lions & He will operate as RB1 with Woody Marks expected to also work in. CJ Stroud has struggled since his rookie season & is a mid range QB2 most weeks in fantasy. Texans do expect to extend him long term despite poor play. Jayden Higgins is an interesting year 2 breakout candidate but Tank Dell also returns in 2026 (We will see if his knee still works).
How the volume number was reached: Same QB CJ Stroud returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.2 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 34 att/g.
25 historical comps for TEs age ~29, prior share 17.0%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 16.1%, p25-p75 [13.2%, 20.6%], tails [11.7%, 23.2%]. Closest comps: Evan Engram 2022→2023 (JAX: 17.2%→23.5%); Dalton Kincaid 2023→2024 (BUF: 17.7%→18.6%); Dalton Schultz 2023→2024 (HOU: 17.8%→15.2%). Adjustment: -5% from td_luck_breakout (TD regression risk)
self-anchored 58% to own 17.0% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 16.1%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: HOU rates 22.5 against a league average of 23, 0.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +3.2 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +6.5 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +3.8 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -6.2 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2 | Brevin Jordan | +3.6 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +34% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, TEs crash the following year 47% of the time (hold 53%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 47% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonnu Smith | 2024 | 13.1 | 57% | -38.9% |
| Tyler Conklin | 2024 | 7.6 | 56% | -29.8% |
| Dallas Goedert | 2024 | 10.4 | 55% | +6.7% |
| Will Dissly | 2024 | 7.3 | 55% | -27.9% |
| Tyler Conklin | 2023 | 7.2 | 54% | +24.5% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2018, round 4, pick 137 by DAL |
| College | Stanford |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′5″ |
| Weight | 244 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.75s |
| Vertical | 32″ |
| Broad jump | 120″ |
| 3-cone | 7s |
| Shuttle | 4.4s |
| Career PPR per game | 10.3 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 25.3% |
| Bust rate | 21.5% |
| Games missed per season | 0.3 |
| Injury history | Hamstring |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.2 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 15 against ARI — 21.6 PPR on 9 targets and a 34.6% target share, in a game that finished 40-20. His worst was Week 12 against BUF at 1.8, on 4 targets, final score 23-19. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.6; in the 5 decided by more, 10. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 10.7 points per game. He scored 10.45, 7.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 9-14 | 5.8 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 18.5% | 54% |
| 2 | TB | 19-20 | 5.9 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 17.4% | 59% |
| 3 | JAX | 10-17 | 8.9 | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 16.7% | 79% |
| 4 | TEN | 26-0 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 21.4% | 85% |
| 5 | BAL | 44-10 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 60 | 0 | 19.4% | 59% |
| 7 | SEA | 19-27 | 18.8 | 9 | 10 | 98 | 0 | 21.7% | 75% |
| 8 | SF | 26-15 | 4.4 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 7.9% | 61% |
| 9 | DEN | 15-18 | 13.7 | 6 | 8 | 77 | 0 | 20.5% | 79% |
| 10 | JAX | 36-29 | 18.3 | 7 | 11 | 53 | 1 | 25% | 77% |
| 11 | TEN | 16-13 | 11.1 | 6 | 9 | 51 | 0 | 22.5% | 69% |
| 12 | BUF | 23-19 | 1.8 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 14.3% | 81% |
| 13 | IND | 20-16 | 12.5 | 7 | 8 | 55 | 0 | 25% | 72% |
| 14 | KC | 20-10 | 5.2 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 14.8% | 74% |
| 15 | ARI | 40-20 | 21.6 | 8 | 9 | 76 | 1 | 34.6% | 79% |
| 16 | LV | 23-21 | 14.5 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 14.7% | 71% |
| 17 | LAC | 20-16 | 4.9 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 15.4% | 78% |
| 18 | IND | 38-30 | 11.3 | 4 | 4 | 73 | 0 | 14.3% | 56% |
| Receptions | 82 |
| Targets | 106 |
| Receiving yards | 777 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 10.45 |
| Yards per target | 7.33 |
| Catch rate | 77.36% |
| Snap share | 71.06% |
| Target share | 19.06% |
| Air-yards share | 15.21% |
| WOPR | 0.392 |
| RACR | 1.209 |
| Average depth of target | 6.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.1 |
| Total YAC | 358 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 106.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.16 |
| Red-zone targets | 13 |
| Red-zone target share | 15.5% |
| End-zone target share | 14.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.79 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.79 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 11 of 13 |
| Yards per target | 8 of 13 |
| Target share | 8 of 13 |
| Air-yards share | 10 of 13 |
The offense threw it 582 times. He took 19.17% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Nico Collins | 21.7% |
| Dalton Schultz ← | 19.17% |
| Jayden Higgins | 12.3% |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 10.31% |
| Christian Kirk | 9.4% |
| Woody Marks | 6.51% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 13 | 74 | 10.22 | 7.95 | 18.6% |
| Davis Mills | 4 | 32 | 11.22 | 5.91 | 20.57% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 22.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.53 in those and 10.63 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 13 against JAX — 17.1 PPR on 7 targets and a 21.2% target share, in a game that finished 23-20. His worst was Week 3 against MIN at 3.1, on 5 targets, final score 7-34. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.5; in the 5 decided by more, 5.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 8.7 points per game. He scored 6.95, 19.3% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 29-27 | 4.6 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 9.7% | 80% |
| 2 | CHI | 19-13 | 4.1 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 8.8% | 71% |
| 3 | MIN | 7-34 | 3.1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 11.6% | 96% |
| 4 | JAX | 24-20 | 6.4 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 12.8% | 87% |
| 5 | BUF | 23-20 | 7.4 | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 17.1% | 99% |
| 6 | NE | 41-21 | 6.7 | 4 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 25.8% | 86% |
| 7 | GB | 22-24 | 3.8 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 10.5% | 78% |
| 8 | IND | 23-20 | 9.2 | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 | 16.7% | 66% |
| 9 | NYJ | 13-21 | 5.1 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 20.7% | 71% |
| 10 | DET | 23-26 | 9.6 | 3 | 4 | 66 | 0 | 12.5% | 71% |
| 11 | DAL | 34-10 | 8.3 | 5 | 7 | 33 | 0 | 21.2% | 75% |
| 12 | TEN | 27-32 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 6.5% | 82% |
| 13 | JAX | 23-20 | 17.1 | 5 | 7 | 61 | 1 | 21.2% | 68% |
| 15 | MIA | 20-12 | 3.3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 16% | 94% |
| 16 | KC | 19-27 | 15.5 | 5 | 8 | 45 | 1 | 21.6% | 81% |
| 17 | BAL | 2-31 | 4.1 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 19.4% | 71% |
| 18 | TEN | 23-14 | 5.9 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 10.7% | 53% |
| Receptions | 53 |
| Targets | 85 |
| Receiving yards | 532 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 6.95 |
| Yards per target | 6.26 |
| Catch rate | 62.35% |
| Snap share | 78.18% |
| Target share | 15.46% |
| Air-yards share | 14.85% |
| WOPR | 0.335 |
| RACR | 0.888 |
| Average depth of target | 8.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6 |
| Total YAC | 214 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 83.1 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.2 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.8% |
| End-zone target share | 6.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.48 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.48 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 13 of 13 |
| Yards per target | 10 of 13 |
| Target share | 12 of 13 |
| Air-yards share | 9 of 13 |
The offense threw it 570 times. He took 15.6% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Nico Collins | 18.17% |
| Dalton Schultz ← | 15.6% |
| Tank Dell | 14.86% |
| Stefon Diggs | 11.74% |
| Joe Mixon | 9.54% |
| John Metchie III | 6.79% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 16 | 82 | 7.02 | 6.13 | 15.76% |
| Davis Mills | 1 | 3 | 5.9 | 9.67 | 10.7% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 18.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.55 in those and 7.51 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 9 against TB — 27 PPR on 11 targets and a 28.9% target share, in a game that finished 39-37. His worst was Week 12 against JAX at 1.2, on 2 targets, final score 21-24. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12; in the 6 decided by more, 7.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 9.9 points per game. He scored 10.03, 1.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 5 against 3 expected, a gap of 2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 9-25 | 2.4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9.3% | 81% |
| 2 | IND | 20-31 | 7.4 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 16.3% | 71% |
| 3 | JAX | 37-17 | 1.9 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 10.3% | 68% |
| 4 | PIT | 30-6 | 13.2 | 3 | 3 | 42 | 1 | 11.1% | 49% |
| 5 | ATL | 19-21 | 19.5 | 7 | 10 | 65 | 1 | 31.3% | 59% |
| 6 | NO | 20-13 | 16.1 | 4 | 7 | 61 | 1 | 29.2% | 63% |
| 8 | CAR | 13-15 | 2.5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20.8% | 78% |
| 9 | TB | 39-37 | 27 | 10 | 11 | 130 | 1 | 28.9% | 79% |
| 10 | CIN | 30-27 | 11.1 | 4 | 6 | 71 | 0 | 15.4% | 88% |
| 11 | ARI | 21-16 | 11.2 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 7.9% | 85% |
| 12 | JAX | 21-24 | 1.2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5.6% | 48% |
| 15 | TEN | 19-16 | 9.8 | 4 | 5 | 58 | 0 | 14.7% | 84% |
| 16 | CLE | 22-36 | 14.1 | 8 | 11 | 61 | 0 | 22.9% | 79% |
| 17 | TEN | 26-3 | 3.9 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 12.9% | 79% |
| 18 | IND | 23-19 | 9.2 | 5 | 7 | 42 | 0 | 26.9% | 79% |
| Receptions | 59 |
| Targets | 88 |
| Receiving yards | 635 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 10.03 |
| Yards per target | 7.22 |
| Catch rate | 67.05% |
| Snap share | 72.67% |
| Target share | 17.57% |
| Air-yards share | 14.35% |
| WOPR | 0.365 |
| RACR | 0.89 |
| Average depth of target | 7.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.4 |
| Total YAC | 259 |
| Broken tackles | 8 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 97.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.63 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 18.4% |
| End-zone target share | 23.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 10 of 14 |
| Yards per target | 10 of 14 |
| Target share | 12 of 14 |
| Air-yards share | 9 of 14 |
The offense threw it 592 times. He took 15.94% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Nico Collins | 19.75% |
| Dalton Schultz ← | 15.94% |
| Robert Woods | 13.59% |
| Tank Dell | 13.59% |
| Noah Brown | 9.96% |
| Devin Singletary | 6.88% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 13 | 72 | 9.74 | 7.17 | 17.38% |
| Case Keenum | 1 | 5 | 9.8 | 11.6 | 14.7% |
| Davis Mills | 1 | 11 | 14.1 | 5.55 | 22.9% |
3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 12.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.33 in those and 11.96 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 17 against TEN — 24.6 PPR on 10 targets and a 24.4% target share, in a game that finished 27-13. His worst was Week 5 against LA at 0, on 1 targets, final score 22-10. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.6; in the 9 decided by more, 8.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 11 points per game. He scored 9.51, 1.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 7 against 4.73 expected, a gap of 2.3.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 3-19 | 13.2 | 7 | 9 | 62 | 0 | 22% | 100% |
| 2 | CIN | 20-17 | 1.8 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 13.3% | 90% |
| 4 | WAS | 25-10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11.5% | 90% |
| 5 | LA | 22-10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.3% | 18% |
| 7 | DET | 24-6 | 9.9 | 5 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 20% | 65% |
| 8 | CHI | 49-29 | 13.4 | 6 | 7 | 74 | 0 | 26.9% | 71% |
| 10 | GB | 28-31 | 17.4 | 6 | 8 | 54 | 1 | 18.2% | 76% |
| 11 | MIN | 40-3 | 5.2 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 16.7% | 64% |
| 12 | NYG | 28-20 | 19.1 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 2 | 13.8% | 84% |
| 13 | IND | 54-19 | 5.3 | 2 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 20% | 72% |
| 14 | HOU | 27-23 | 14.7 | 6 | 10 | 87 | 0 | 25.6% | 93% |
| 15 | JAX | 34-40 | 3.5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 13.3% | 97% |
| 16 | PHI | 40-34 | 7.3 | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 11.4% | 86% |
| 17 | TEN | 27-13 | 24.6 | 7 | 10 | 56 | 2 | 24.4% | 81% |
| 18 | WAS | 6-26 | 7.3 | 4 | 9 | 33 | 0 | 25% | 87% |
| Receptions | 57 |
| Targets | 89 |
| Receiving yards | 577 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 9.51 |
| Yards per target | 6.48 |
| Catch rate | 64.04% |
| Snap share | 78.27% |
| Target share | 17.89% |
| Air-yards share | 15.99% |
| WOPR | 0.38 |
| RACR | 1.051 |
| Average depth of target | 7.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.5 |
| Total YAC | 204 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 77.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.02 |
| Red-zone targets | 20 |
| Red-zone target share | 23.5% |
| End-zone target share | 27.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.73 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 7 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.27 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 8 of 11 |
| Yards per target | 8 of 11 |
| Target share | 8 of 11 |
| Air-yards share | 6 of 11 |
The offense threw it 556 times. He took 16.33% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| CeeDee Lamb | 28.62% |
| Dalton Schultz ← | 16.33% |
| Noah Brown | 13.58% |
| Michael Gallup | 13.58% |
| Tony Pollard | 10.09% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 4.22% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 12 | 81 | 11.74 | 6.9 | 19.78% |
| Cooper Rush | 3 | 8 | 0.6 | 2.25 | 10.37% |
5 of his 15 games were blowouts, 28.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.22 in those and 10.63 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 3 against PHI — 26 PPR on 7 targets and a 28% target share, in a game that finished 41-21. His worst was Week 14 against WAS at 1.4, on 3 targets, final score 27-20. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.6; in the 9 decided by more, 14.7. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 10.9 points per game. He scored 12.28, 14.9% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 3.56 expected, a gap of 2.4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 29-31 | 10.5 | 6 | 6 | 45 | 0 | 10.5% | 68% |
| 2 | LAC | 20-17 | 3.8 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 7.4% | 73% |
| 3 | PHI | 41-21 | 26 | 6 | 7 | 80 | 2 | 28% | 68% |
| 4 | CAR | 36-28 | 17.8 | 6 | 8 | 58 | 1 | 36.4% | 79% |
| 5 | NYG | 44-20 | 13.9 | 6 | 8 | 79 | 0 | 25% | 73% |
| 6 | NE | 35-29 | 12.9 | 5 | 6 | 79 | 0 | 12.2% | 84% |
| 8 | MIN | 20-16 | 3.1 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 17.1% | 82% |
| 9 | DEN | 16-30 | 9.4 | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 12.8% | 95% |
| 10 | ATL | 43-3 | 2.4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6.1% | 66% |
| 11 | KC | 9-19 | 11.3 | 6 | 8 | 53 | 0 | 19% | 98% |
| 12 | LV | 33-36 | 15.6 | 3 | 7 | 46 | 1 | 14.9% | 96% |
| 13 | NO | 27-17 | 9.3 | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 12.5% | 96% |
| 14 | WAS | 27-20 | 1.4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7.7% | 85% |
| 15 | NYG | 21-6 | 20.7 | 8 | 8 | 67 | 1 | 21.6% | 86% |
| 16 | WAS | 56-14 | 22.2 | 8 | 9 | 82 | 1 | 22% | 75% |
| 17 | ARI | 22-25 | 11.4 | 6 | 10 | 54 | 0 | 26.3% | 94% |
| 18 | PHI | 51-26 | 17.1 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 10.7% | 60% |
| Receptions | 78 |
| Targets | 104 |
| Receiving yards | 808 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 12.28 |
| Yards per target | 7.77 |
| Catch rate | 75% |
| Snap share | 81.06% |
| Target share | 17.07% |
| Air-yards share | 14.55% |
| WOPR | 0.357 |
| RACR | 1.364 |
| Average depth of target | 7.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.9 |
| Total YAC | 348 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 118.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.73 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.6% |
| End-zone target share | 12.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.56 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.44 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 5 of 15 |
| Yards per target | 6 of 15 |
| Target share | 11 of 15 |
| Air-yards share | 11 of 15 |
The offense threw it 647 times. He took 16.35% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| CeeDee Lamb | 18.87% |
| Amari Cooper | 16.35% |
| Dalton Schultz ← | 16.35% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 10.22% |
| Michael Gallup | 9.75% |
| Cedrick Wilson | 9.59% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 16 | 97 | 12.86 | 8.22 | 17.07% |
| Cooper Rush | 1 | 7 | 3.1 | 1.57 | 17.1% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 39.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.32 in those and 9.56 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 2 against ATL — 21.8 PPR on 10 targets and a 21.3% target share, in a game that finished 40-39. His worst was Week 5 against NYG at 1.6, on 3 targets, final score 37-34. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.9; in the 8 decided by more, 8.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 9.8 points per game. He scored 9.16, 6.9% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 17-20 | 2.1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 10.8% | 69% |
| 2 | ATL | 40-39 | 21.8 | 9 | 10 | 88 | 1 | 21.3% | 70% |
| 3 | SEA | 31-38 | 8.8 | 4 | 6 | 48 | 0 | 10.7% | 67% |
| 4 | CLE | 38-49 | 17.2 | 4 | 8 | 72 | 1 | 13.8% | 77% |
| 5 | NYG | 37-34 | 1.6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 9.1% | 88% |
| 6 | ARI | 10-38 | 7.5 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 9.6% | 81% |
| 7 | WAS | 3-25 | 4.2 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 19% | 81% |
| 8 | PHI | 9-23 | 11.3 | 6 | 8 | 53 | 0 | 21.1% | 95% |
| 9 | PIT | 19-24 | 8.8 | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 18.9% | 96% |
| 11 | MIN | 31-28 | 12.5 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 19.4% | 91% |
| 12 | WAS | 16-41 | 7.4 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 14.7% | 86% |
| 13 | BAL | 17-34 | 8.4 | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 8.9% | 90% |
| 14 | CIN | 30-7 | 6.4 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 13.6% | 96% |
| 15 | SF | 41-33 | 9.4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 6.3% | 88% |
| 16 | PHI | 37-17 | 5.1 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 13.3% | 93% |
| 17 | NYG | 19-23 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 70 | 0 | 22.7% | 98% |
| Receptions | 63 |
| Targets | 89 |
| Receiving yards | 615 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 9.16 |
| Yards per target | 6.91 |
| Catch rate | 70.79% |
| Snap share | 85.38% |
| Target share | 14.57% |
| Air-yards share | 12.11% |
| WOPR | 0.304 |
| RACR | 1.283 |
| Average depth of target | 6.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.3 |
| Total YAC | 279 |
| Broken tackles | 8 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 95.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.82 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.1% |
| End-zone target share | 12.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.08 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.08 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 11 of 12 |
| Yards per target | 7 of 12 |
| Target share | 12 of 12 |
| Air-yards share | 11 of 12 |
The offense threw it 638 times. He took 14.5% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Amari Cooper | 21.17% |
| CeeDee Lamb | 18.08% |
| Michael Gallup | 17.1% |
| Dalton Schultz ← | 14.5% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 11.56% |
| Tony Pollard | 6.51% |
He caught passes from 4 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 9 | 43 | 8.32 | 6.72 | 14.17% |
| Dak Prescott | 5 | 31 | 10.3 | 7.26 | 13.14% |
| Ben DiNucci | 1 | 8 | 11.3 | 6.63 | 21.1% |
| Garrett Gilbert | 1 | 7 | 8.8 | 6.86 | 18.9% |
6 of his 16 games were blowouts, 26.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.5 in those and 9.88 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Dalton Schultz →