Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 12.48 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 83.6, usage worth 11.1.
28 years old · 7 seasons of experience · 2019 draft class
| SLEEPER | 72.1 |
| ESPN | 88 |
| YAHOO | 86 |
| UNDERDOG | 75.6 |
| CBS | 88.1 |
| FFA | 85 |
| Goes around | Round 7, pick 12 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR32 |
| Bye week | 9 |
| ADP standard deviation | 7.7 picks |
Our board has him at 171.5 points, 10.5 per game — 57.3 catches, 818 yards, 5.4 TDs. That is WR4, 85 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 8.7 points per game to a ceiling of 14.7, with the median at 10.5. Boom rate 40%, bust rate 17%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 83.6 on consensus and our board has him 85. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
nearly the same read as Sutton — a real, talented player without a realistic target-share ceiling in this specific situation (a 43-year-old Aaron Rodgers who, at this point in his career, can no longer push the ball downfield, which specifically undercuts what Metcalf does best).
watch · medium conviction · 2026-08Pittsburgh Steelers returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, Mike McCarthy as head coach, Brian Angelichio calling it. The offense projects to 33 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 25.3 rushes.
In: Drew Allar (qb2), Michael Pittman Jr. (wr2), Germie Bernard (wr3), Kaden Wejen (wr6), A.T. Perry (wr7), Rico Dowdle (rb2), Eli Heidenreich (rb4). Out: Calvin Austin III (wr2), Adam Thielen (wr4), Kenneth Gainwell (rb2), Jonnu Smith (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 21%, with a bear case of 18.8% and a bull case of 21.9% and a full range of 16.9% to 22.2%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| DK Metcalf ← | 21% |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 13.9% |
| Germie Bernard | 13.6% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 13.1% |
| Jaylen Warren | 10.4% |
| Rico Dowdle | 7.1% |
Key additions: Traded for and Signed Michael Pittman Jr to 3 year $59M deal. Signed RB Rico Dowdle to 2/$12M deal in free agency. Drafted WR Germie Bernard in 2nd round, Drafted OT Max Iheanachor in 1st roud to beef up line. Drafted QB Drew Allar in the 3rd round. Drafted G Gennings Dunker 3rd roud (depth). Bringin in HC Mike McCarthy & Brian Angelichio as OC.
Key departures: RB Kenneth Gainwell left in free agency to Bucs. LG Isaac Seumalo left for Cardinals. WR Calvin Austin III left in free agency for Giants. HC Mike Tomlin & OC Arthur Smith (Ass) are both gone.
Notes: Drafted Bernard round 2 Steelers traded up. Steelers traded for Michael Pittman Jr. who is aging but will elevate the passing game. DK Metcalf looks to get back on track in 2026 & establish himself as WR1. Crowded WR room. Steelers drafted WR Riley Nowakowski in the 4th round & he will likely operate as WR5 or return specialist. Signed Rico Dowdle to 2 year deal in free agency. Warren is slotted to be 1A and Dowdle 1B, but any injury to either back makes the other a home run hit in fantasy for 2026. Aaron Rodgers SHOULD return to Steelers, but also drafted Drew Allar (bad QB but good prospect who should be rostered because he can progress. Zero floor on Allar but the ceiling is very high if he gets better.)
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Aaron Rodgers returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.4 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33 att/g; New OC Brian Angelichio — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Mike McCarthy.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~28, prior share 21.7%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 23.1%, p25-p75 [18.3%, 26.1%], tails [13.4%, 26.9%]. Closest comps: Tee Higgins 2023→2024 (CIN: 19.6%→26.1%); George Pickens 2023→2024 (PIT: 21.1%→26.2%); DeVonta Smith 2021→2022 (PHI: 22.9%→26.8%). Adjustment: +3% from real_breakout (sustainable)
self-anchored 58% to own 21.7% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 23.1%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: PIT rates 21.3 against a league average of 23, 1.6 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -1.9 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | +2.2 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -1.8 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.7 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | +11.4 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -25.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, WRs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 2024 | 15.8 | 61% | -16.4% |
| Michael Pittman | 2024 | 10.4 | 58% | +14.8% |
| Terry McLaurin | 2023 | 12 | 57% | +39.7% |
| Chris Godwin | 2023 | 12.3 | 54% | +22.9% |
| Diontae Johnson | 2024 | 8.1 | 54% | -53.6% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2019, round 2, pick 64 by SEA |
| College | Mississippi |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 6′3″ |
| Weight | 228 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.33s |
| Vertical | 40.5″ |
| Broad jump | 134″ |
| 3-cone | 7.38s |
| Shuttle | 4.5s |
| Career PPR per game | 13.7 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 20.5% |
| Bust rate | 23.1% |
| Games missed per season | 0.3 |
| Injury history | Knee |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.66 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 4 against MIN — 23.6 PPR on 5 targets and a 22.7% target share, in a game that finished 24-21. His worst was Week 9 against IND at 2.6, on 4 targets, final score 27-20. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.9; in the 7 decided by more, 12. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 11.1 points per game. He scored 12.48, 8.9% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 4.22 expected, a gap of -1.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 34-32 | 12.3 | 4 | 7 | 83 | 0 | 24.1% | 95% |
| 2 | SEA | 17-31 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 19.4% | 90% |
| 3 | NE | 21-14 | 12.2 | 3 | 4 | 32 | 1 | 18.2% | 89% |
| 4 | MIN | 24-21 | 23.6 | 5 | 5 | 126 | 1 | 22.7% | 79% |
| 6 | CLE | 23-9 | 19.5 | 4 | 9 | 95 | 1 | 31% | 83% |
| 7 | CIN | 31-33 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 0 | 15.2% | 98% |
| 8 | GB | 25-35 | 16.5 | 5 | 7 | 55 | 1 | 21.9% | 94% |
| 9 | IND | 27-20 | 2.6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 11.4% | 82% |
| 10 | LAC | 10-25 | 6.5 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 0 | 25% | 92% |
| 11 | CIN | 34-12 | 9.9 | 5 | 8 | 49 | 0 | 27.6% | 86% |
| 12 | CHI | 28-31 | 14.4 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 1 | 25.8% | 85% |
| 13 | BUF | 7-26 | 6.2 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 22.7% | 86% |
| 14 | BAL | 27-22 | 21.8 | 7 | 12 | 148 | 0 | 36.4% | 83% |
| 15 | MIA | 28-15 | 14.5 | 3 | 3 | 55 | 1 | 11.1% | 79% |
| 16 | DET | 29-24 | 8.2 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 0 | 23.7% | 88% |
| Receptions | 59 |
| Targets | 99 |
| Receiving yards | 850 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 12 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 12.48 |
| Yards per target | 8.59 |
| Catch rate | 59.6% |
| Yards per carry | 6 |
| Snap share | 87.27% |
| Target share | 22.41% |
| Air-yards share | 37.17% |
| WOPR | 0.596 |
| RACR | 1.099 |
| Average depth of target | 10.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.4 |
| Total YAC | 414 |
| Broken tackles | 8 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 90.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.2 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.11 |
| Red-zone targets | 13 |
| Red-zone target share | 16.9% |
| End-zone target share | 28.6% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.22 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.22 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.14 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 20 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 15 of 44 |
| Target share | 22 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 10 of 44 |
The offense threw it 550 times. He took 19.04% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DK Metcalf ← | 19.04% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 16.35% |
| Calvin Austin III | 10.58% |
| Jonnu Smith | 10.38% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 10.38% |
| Jaylen Warren | 8.65% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 13 | 83 | 12.53 | 9.39 | 21.75% |
| Mason Rudolph | 2 | 16 | 12.15 | 4.44 | 26.7% |
2 of his 15 games were blowouts, 8.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.05 in those and 12.89 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 2 against NE — 28.9 PPR on 14 targets and a 32.6% target share, in a game that finished 23-20. His worst was Week 15 against GB at 5.8, on 3 targets, final score 13-30. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.7; in the 8 decided by more, 12. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 12.8 points per game. He scored 12.75, 0.1% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.81 expected, a gap of -1.8.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 26-20 | 5.9 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 16% | 88% |
| 2 | NE | 23-20 | 28.9 | 10 | 14 | 129 | 1 | 32.6% | 87% |
| 3 | MIA | 24-3 | 20.4 | 4 | 6 | 104 | 1 | 18.2% | 83% |
| 4 | DET | 29-42 | 15.4 | 7 | 12 | 104 | 0 | 22.6% | 82% |
| 5 | NYG | 20-29 | 7.5 | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 17.9% | 100% |
| 6 | SF | 24-36 | 7.8 | 3 | 11 | 48 | 0 | 22.9% | 90% |
| 7 | ATL | 34-14 | 19.9 | 4 | 7 | 99 | 1 | 25% | 78% |
| 11 | SF | 20-17 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 70 | 0 | 29% | 90% |
| 12 | ARI | 16-6 | 9.9 | 4 | 5 | 59 | 0 | 17.9% | 78% |
| 13 | NYJ | 26-21 | 10.6 | 4 | 9 | 66 | 0 | 31% | 75% |
| 14 | ARI | 30-18 | 8.9 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 0 | 20.7% | 80% |
| 15 | GB | 13-30 | 5.8 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 9.7% | 93% |
| 16 | MIN | 24-27 | 14.7 | 3 | 7 | 57 | 1 | 16.7% | 89% |
| 17 | CHI | 6-3 | 7.2 | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 | 13.6% | 88% |
| 18 | LA | 30-25 | 14.3 | 3 | 5 | 53 | 1 | 18.5% | 89% |
| Receptions | 66 |
| Targets | 108 |
| Receiving yards | 992 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 12.75 |
| Yards per target | 9.19 |
| Catch rate | 61.11% |
| Snap share | 86% |
| Target share | 20.82% |
| Air-yards share | 40.56% |
| WOPR | 0.597 |
| RACR | 0.735 |
| Average depth of target | 13.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11 |
| Total YAC | 263 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 99 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.54 |
| Red-zone targets | 9 |
| Red-zone target share | 15% |
| End-zone target share | 23.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.81 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.81 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 29 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 12 of 51 |
| Target share | 37 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 7 of 51 |
The offense threw it 593 times. He took 18.98% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 24.08% |
| DK Metcalf ← | 18.98% |
| Tyler Lockett | 13.01% |
| Noah Fant | 11.25% |
| Kenneth Walker | 9.31% |
| Zach Charbonnet | 9.14% |
3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 24.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.37 in those and 13.66 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 13 against DAL — 37.4 PPR on 8 targets and a 21.1% target share, in a game that finished 35-41. His worst was Week 18 against ARI at 2, on 6 targets, final score 21-20. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.7; in the 6 decided by more, 11.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 12.8 points per game. He scored 14.09, 10.2% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 13-30 | 13.7 | 3 | 5 | 47 | 1 | 20.8% | 94% |
| 2 | DET | 37-31 | 13.5 | 6 | 6 | 75 | 0 | 16.2% | 83% |
| 3 | CAR | 37-27 | 17.2 | 6 | 8 | 112 | 0 | 22.9% | 72% |
| 4 | NYG | 24-3 | 12.4 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 1 | 15.4% | 71% |
| 6 | CIN | 13-17 | 10.9 | 4 | 9 | 69 | 0 | 24.3% | 78% |
| 8 | CLE | 24-20 | 11.7 | 5 | 14 | 67 | 0 | 38.9% | 78% |
| 9 | BAL | 3-37 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 50 | 0 | 16% | 86% |
| 10 | WAS | 29-26 | 16.8 | 7 | 12 | 98 | 0 | 28.6% | 89% |
| 11 | LA | 16-17 | 20.4 | 5 | 9 | 94 | 1 | 23.7% | 71% |
| 12 | SF | 13-31 | 6.2 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 33.3% | 86% |
| 13 | DAL | 35-41 | 37.4 | 6 | 8 | 134 | 3 | 21.1% | 90% |
| 14 | SF | 16-28 | 13.2 | 2 | 5 | 52 | 1 | 16.1% | 90% |
| 15 | PHI | 20-17 | 12.8 | 5 | 6 | 78 | 0 | 18.8% | 92% |
| 16 | TEN | 20-17 | 15.6 | 4 | 6 | 56 | 1 | 16.7% | 89% |
| 17 | PIT | 23-30 | 15.6 | 5 | 8 | 106 | 0 | 24.2% | 96% |
| 18 | ARI | 21-20 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 23.1% | 84% |
| Receptions | 66 |
| Targets | 119 |
| Receiving yards | 1,114 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 14.09 |
| Yards per target | 9.36 |
| Catch rate | 55.46% |
| Snap share | 84.31% |
| Target share | 22.51% |
| Air-yards share | 38.76% |
| WOPR | 0.609 |
| RACR | 0.801 |
| Average depth of target | 12.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.3 |
| Total YAC | 367 |
| Broken tackles | 7 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 95.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.67 |
| Red-zone targets | 23 |
| Red-zone target share | 34.8% |
| End-zone target share | 44.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.17 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.83 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 21 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 12 of 51 |
| Target share | 31 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 13 of 51 |
The offense threw it 575 times. He took 21.79% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyler Lockett | 22.34% |
| DK Metcalf ← | 21.79% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 17.03% |
| Noah Fant | 7.88% |
| Zach Charbonnet | 7.33% |
| Kenneth Walker | 6.78% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 14 | 108 | 14.24 | 9.11 | 23.23% |
| Drew Lock | 2 | 11 | 13 | 11.82 | 17.45% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 17% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.58 in those and 15.67 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 13 against LA — 26.7 PPR on 8 targets and a 21.6% target share, in a game that finished 27-23. His worst was Week 17 against NYJ at 1.3, on 5 targets, final score 23-6. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.3; in the 7 decided by more, 9.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 14.6 points per game. He scored 13.34, 0.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 17-16 | 8.6 | 7 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 25.9% | 82% |
| 2 | SF | 7-27 | 7.5 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 20% | 92% |
| 3 | ATL | 23-27 | 17.4 | 5 | 12 | 64 | 1 | 27.3% | 93% |
| 4 | DET | 48-45 | 21.9 | 7 | 10 | 149 | 0 | 34.5% | 76% |
| 5 | NO | 32-39 | 17.8 | 5 | 8 | 88 | 1 | 33.3% | 96% |
| 6 | ARI | 19-9 | 5.4 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 23.3% | 81% |
| 7 | LAC | 37-23 | 2.2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 7.7% | 28% |
| 8 | NYG | 27-13 | 17.5 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 1 | 30.3% | 63% |
| 9 | ARI | 31-21 | 14.7 | 5 | 6 | 37 | 1 | 18.8% | 81% |
| 10 | TB | 16-21 | 13.1 | 6 | 9 | 71 | 0 | 27.3% | 90% |
| 12 | LV | 34-40 | 20 | 11 | 15 | 90 | 0 | 40.5% | 91% |
| 13 | LA | 27-23 | 26.7 | 8 | 8 | 127 | 1 | 21.6% | 87% |
| 14 | CAR | 24-30 | 18.1 | 5 | 10 | 71 | 1 | 27.8% | 91% |
| 15 | SF | 13-21 | 12.5 | 7 | 9 | 55 | 0 | 22% | 95% |
| 16 | KC | 10-24 | 15.1 | 7 | 9 | 81 | 0 | 23.7% | 91% |
| 17 | NYJ | 23-6 | 1.3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 17.9% | 82% |
| 18 | LA | 19-16 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 40 | 0 | 28.6% | 83% |
| Receptions | 90 |
| Targets | 141 |
| Receiving yards | 1,048 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 13.34 |
| Yards per target | 7.43 |
| Catch rate | 63.83% |
| Snap share | 82.47% |
| Target share | 25.32% |
| Air-yards share | 35.26% |
| WOPR | 0.626 |
| RACR | 0.714 |
| Average depth of target | 11.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.2 |
| Total YAC | 217 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 88.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.41 |
| Red-zone targets | 30 |
| Red-zone target share | 38.5% |
| End-zone target share | 55.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 6.34 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.34 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 25 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 36 of 51 |
| Target share | 19 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 14 of 51 |
The offense threw it 573 times. He took 25.5% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DK Metcalf ← | 25.5% |
| Tyler Lockett | 21.16% |
| Noah Fant | 11.39% |
| Marquise Goodwin | 7.59% |
| Will Dissly | 6.87% |
| Kenneth Walker | 6.33% |
2 of his 17 games were blowouts, 3.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.4 in those and 16.31 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 17 against DET — 30.9 PPR on 9 targets and a 32.1% target share, in a game that finished 51-29. His worst was Week 12 against WAS at 2.3, on 4 targets, final score 15-17. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.7; in the 9 decided by more, 16.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 13.1 points per game. He scored 14.37, 9.3% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 9 against 3.94 expected, a gap of 5.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 28-16 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 60 | 1 | 23.8% | 93% |
| 2 | TEN | 30-33 | 11.3 | 6 | 11 | 53 | 0 | 35.5% | 94% |
| 3 | MIN | 17-30 | 22.7 | 6 | 9 | 107 | 1 | 32.1% | 89% |
| 4 | SF | 28-21 | 16.5 | 4 | 8 | 65 | 1 | 36.4% | 82% |
| 5 | LA | 17-26 | 26.8 | 5 | 5 | 98 | 2 | 15.6% | 74% |
| 6 | PIT | 20-23 | 11.8 | 6 | 7 | 58 | 0 | 22.6% | 75% |
| 7 | NO | 10-13 | 17.6 | 2 | 5 | 96 | 1 | 26.3% | 82% |
| 8 | JAX | 31-7 | 22.3 | 6 | 6 | 43 | 2 | 27.3% | 72% |
| 10 | GB | 0-17 | 5.6 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 21.1% | 74% |
| 11 | ARI | 13-23 | 7.1 | 4 | 8 | 31 | 0 | 32% | 92% |
| 12 | WAS | 15-17 | 2.3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 12.9% | 94% |
| 13 | SF | 30-23 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 60 | 0 | 21.6% | 89% |
| 14 | HOU | 33-13 | 8.3 | 4 | 8 | 43 | 0 | 28.6% | 74% |
| 15 | LA | 10-20 | 11.2 | 6 | 12 | 52 | 0 | 42.9% | 93% |
| 16 | CHI | 24-25 | 12.1 | 2 | 5 | 41 | 1 | 18.5% | 88% |
| 17 | DET | 51-29 | 30.9 | 6 | 9 | 63 | 3 | 32.1% | 67% |
| 18 | ARI | 38-30 | 10.8 | 5 | 11 | 58 | 0 | 42.3% | 88% |
| Receptions | 75 |
| Targets | 129 |
| Receiving yards | 967 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 6 |
| Touchdowns | 12 |
| Points per game | 14.37 |
| Yards per target | 7.5 |
| Catch rate | 58.14% |
| Yards per carry | 6 |
| Snap share | 83.53% |
| Target share | 27.74% |
| Air-yards share | 36.86% |
| WOPR | 0.674 |
| RACR | 0.696 |
| Average depth of target | 12.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.5 |
| Total YAC | 328 |
| Broken tackles | 8 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 106.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.69 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.01 |
| Red-zone targets | 20 |
| Red-zone target share | 35.1% |
| End-zone target share | 37% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.94 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 9 |
| Receiving TD luck | 5.06 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 20 of 48 |
| Yards per target | 35 of 48 |
| Target share | 6 of 48 |
| Air-yards share | 6 of 48 |
The offense threw it 495 times. He took 27.27% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DK Metcalf ← | 27.27% |
| Tyler Lockett | 22.62% |
| Gerald Everett | 13.32% |
| Freddie Swain | 8.46% |
| Will Dissly | 5.5% |
| DeeJay Dallas | 4.86% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 13 | 106 | 12.75 | 6.34 | 29.22% |
| Geno Smith | 4 | 23 | 19.63 | 12.83 | 22.95% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 27.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.77 in those and 11.67 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 8 against SF — 40.1 PPR on 15 targets and a 41.7% target share, in a game that finished 37-27. His worst was Week 7 against ARI at 4.3, on 5 targets, final score 34-37. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.4; in the 5 decided by more, 22.7. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 14.8 points per game. He scored 16.96, 18.8% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 4.88 expected, a gap of 1.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 38-25 | 19.5 | 4 | 8 | 95 | 1 | 22.9% | 98% |
| 2 | NE | 35-30 | 19.2 | 4 | 6 | 92 | 1 | 24% | 100% |
| 3 | DAL | 38-31 | 19 | 4 | 8 | 110 | 1 | 21.1% | 96% |
| 4 | MIA | 31-23 | 14.6 | 4 | 6 | 106 | 0 | 18.2% | 87% |
| 5 | MIN | 27-26 | 27.3 | 6 | 11 | 93 | 2 | 36.7% | 96% |
| 7 | ARI | 34-37 | 4.3 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 10.4% | 96% |
| 8 | SF | 37-27 | 40.1 | 12 | 15 | 161 | 2 | 41.7% | 96% |
| 9 | BUF | 34-44 | 23.8 | 7 | 9 | 108 | 1 | 22.5% | 100% |
| 10 | LA | 16-23 | 4.8 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 11.4% | 96% |
| 11 | ARI | 28-21 | 13.6 | 3 | 5 | 46 | 1 | 18.5% | 92% |
| 12 | PHI | 23-17 | 27.7 | 10 | 13 | 177 | 0 | 43.3% | 82% |
| 13 | NYG | 12-17 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 80 | 0 | 19.5% | 97% |
| 14 | NYJ | 40-3 | 18.1 | 6 | 8 | 61 | 1 | 25% | 63% |
| 15 | WAS | 20-15 | 9.3 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 23.1% | 89% |
| 16 | LA | 20-9 | 11.9 | 6 | 8 | 59 | 0 | 27.6% | 97% |
| 17 | SF | 26-23 | 5.1 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 0 | 28.1% | 88% |
| Receptions | 83 |
| Targets | 129 |
| Receiving yards | 1,303 |
| Touchdowns | 10 |
| Points per game | 16.96 |
| Yards per target | 10.1 |
| Catch rate | 64.34% |
| Snap share | 92.06% |
| Target share | 24.63% |
| Air-yards share | 37.97% |
| WOPR | 0.637 |
| RACR | 0.753 |
| Average depth of target | 13.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.3 |
| Total YAC | 363 |
| Broken tackles | 8 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 110.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.71 |
| Red-zone targets | 17 |
| Red-zone target share | 20.2% |
| End-zone target share | 26.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.88 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.12 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 9 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 6 of 51 |
| Target share | 15 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 5 of 51 |
The offense threw it 563 times. He took 24.07% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyler Lockett | 24.63% |
| DK Metcalf ← | 24.07% |
| David Moore | 8.77% |
| Chris Carson | 8.58% |
| Jacob Hollister | 7.46% |
| Greg Olsen | 6.9% |
1 of his 16 games were blowouts, 6.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.1 in those and 14.35 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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