Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 14.29 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 55.8, usage worth 13.3.
27 years old · 6 seasons of experience · 2020 draft class
| SLEEPER | 58.9 |
| ESPN | 72.5 |
| YAHOO | 49.4 |
| UNDERDOG | 48 |
| CBS | 42.5 |
| FFA | 39 |
| Goes around | Round 5, pick 8 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB22 |
| Bye week | 10 |
| ADP standard deviation | 13 picks |
Our board has him at 210.5 points, 13.2 per game — 911 rushing yards, 7.5 rushing TDs, 33.3 catches. That is RB3, 39 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 8.3 points per game to a ceiling of 17.1, with the median at 13.2. Boom rate 29%, bust rate 37%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 55.8 on consensus and our board has him 39. We rank him 16.8 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
Don't reach — likely splits with Monangai and the Bears' tough schedule hurts RB scripts. Pass-game side of this offense is the better bet.
fade · medium conviction · 2026-06-05Chicago Bears returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Caleb Williams at quarterback, Ben Johnson as head coach, Press Taylor calling it. The offense projects to 33.6 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 28.4 rushes.
In: Kalif Raymond (wr3), Zavion Thomas (wr5), JP Richardson (wr6), Alexander Maurice (wr7), Sam Roush (te2). Out: DJ Moore (wr2), Luther Burden (wr3), Olamide Zaccheaus (wr4), Travis Homer (rb3), Cole Kmet (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| D'Andre Swift ← | 55.6% |
| Kyle Monangai | 32.9% |
| Brittain Brown | 6.7% |
| Roschon Johnson | 4.9% |
What the offense looks like: Whoever emerges as Caleb Williams primary target will be an ELITE fantasy asset to own. We still do not know with 100% certainy who that will be. You may think it would be Rome Odunze, but Luther Burden III has shown a TON of promise. There is room for both of these young WR to eat, but Colston Loveland may be the real beneficiary of the additional targets. he looks like a true star. RB room is likely a 1A/1B for the foreseable future. Both Swift and Monangai see their value skyrocket if the other gets hurt.
Key additions: Bears added WR Kalif Raymond from Lions (expected to operate as WR3 because Ben Johnson loves him). Drafted Rookie WR Zavion Thomas 3rd round. Drafted TE Sam Roush RD 3.
Key departures: Biggest 2 losses C Drew Dalman retired unexpectedly & LT Ozzy Trapilo suffered serious knee injury sidelining him the entire 2026 season. WR DJ Moore traded to Bills for a 2nd round pick. WR Olamide Zaccheaus also left Chicago this offseason. Opening up a massive target opportunity for Bears pass catchers.
Notes: Strong disagreement who the WR1 will be in 2026. Odunze looked fantastic early in 2025, but Burden stole the show in the back half of the season. Loveland has emerged as Williams favorite target. Caleb Williams is set to have an excellent season again. RB room looks to remain the same with Swift 1A & Monangai 1B. Bears drafted TE Sam Roush in the 3rd round. Cole Kmet may be traded. Highly relevant fantasty offense.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Caleb Williams returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.7 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.6 att/g; New OC Press Taylor — pass rate and tempo may shift.
| Projected carry share | 55.6% |
| Projected carries per game | 12.9 |
| Projected carries, full season | 220 |
| Last season, carries per game | 14.2 |
That is a reduction of 1.2 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 28.4 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: CHI rates 24.9 against a league average of 23, 1.9 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -1.9 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | +4.3 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -3.4 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -1.7 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3 | Craig Reynolds | +11.1 |
| 2022 | 2 | Craig Reynolds | +6.2 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +11.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 2024 | 15.8 | 68% | -20.4% |
| David Montgomery | 2023 | 14.8 | 60% | +26.8% |
| Tony Pollard | 2024 | 12.5 | 58% | -1.9% |
| Josh Jacobs | 2024 | 17.2 | 57% | +0.9% |
| Devin Singletary | 2023 | 9.8 | 56% | -18.7% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 2 lost it and 2 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2020, round 2, pick 35 by DET |
| College | Georgia |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 5′8″ |
| Weight | 212 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.48s |
| Vertical | 35.5″ |
| Broad jump | 121″ |
| Career PPR per game | 14.1 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 21.1% |
| Bust rate | 19.7% |
| Games missed per season | 1.2 |
| Injury history | Concussion, Shoulder, Groin |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.31 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 6 against WAS — 25.5 PPR on 17 touches and a 10.3% target share, in a game that finished 25-24. His worst was Week 12 against PIT at 1.9, on 9 touches, final score 31-28. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.5; in the 6 decided by more, 17.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 13.3 points per game. He scored 14.29, 5.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 24-27 | 9.5 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 53 | 0 | 14.7% | 81% |
| 2 | DET | 21-52 | 13.9 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 63 | 1 | 9.1% | 57% |
| 3 | DAL | 31-14 | 10.8 | 3 | 4 | 45 | 13 | 33 | 0 | 14.3% | 61% |
| 4 | LV | 25-24 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 14 | 38 | 1 | 16.7% | 66% |
| 6 | WAS | 25-24 | 25.5 | 2 | 3 | 67 | 14 | 108 | 1 | 10.3% | 56% |
| 7 | NO | 26-14 | 20.8 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 19 | 124 | 1 | 4% | 54% |
| 8 | BAL | 16-30 | 15.1 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 11 | 45 | 1 | 5.7% | 49% |
| 10 | NYG | 24-20 | 14.8 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 13 | 80 | 0 | 22.2% | 62% |
| 11 | MIN | 19-17 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 90 | 0 | 3.6% | 57% |
| 12 | PIT | 31-28 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 0 | 3.3% | 45% |
| 13 | PHI | 24-15 | 20.8 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 18 | 125 | 1 | 6.3% | 53% |
| 14 | GB | 21-28 | 11.2 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 63 | 0 | 14.3% | 57% |
| 15 | CLE | 31-3 | 22.6 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 18 | 98 | 2 | 3.7% | 56% |
| 16 | GB | 22-16 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 13 | 58 | 0 | 6.9% | 55% |
| 17 | SF | 38-42 | 21.9 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 9 | 54 | 2 | 7.7% | 59% |
| 18 | DET | 16-19 | 5.8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 40 | 0 | 6.9% | 58% |
| Receptions | 34 |
| Targets | 48 |
| Receiving yards | 299 |
| Carries | 223 |
| Rushing yards | 1,087 |
| Touchdowns | 10 |
| Points per game | 14.29 |
| Yards per target | 6.23 |
| Catch rate | 70.83% |
| Yards per carry | 4.87 |
| Snap share | 57.88% |
| Target share | 9.36% |
| Air-yards share | -0.71% |
| WOPR | 0.136 |
| RACR | -2.361 |
| Average depth of target | -0.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 10.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.7 |
| Total YAC | 357 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 94 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.1 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.96 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.3% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 44.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 58.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.15 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.15 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 9.14 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 17 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 17 of 49 |
| Target share | 23 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 29 of 49 |
The offense threw it 574 times. He took 9.06% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Rome Odunze | 16.98% |
| D.J. Moore | 16.04% |
| Colston Loveland | 15.47% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 12.26% |
| Luther Burden III | 11.32% |
| D'Andre Swift ← | 9.06% |
3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 20.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.77 in those and 12.46 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 4 against LA — 29.5 PPR on 23 touches and a 31.8% target share, in a game that finished 24-18. His worst was Week 14 against SF at 5, on 16 touches, final score 13-38. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.8; in the 7 decided by more, 12.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 14.3 points per game. He scored 12.62, 11.9% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 24-17 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 30 | 0 | 3.4% | 70% |
| 2 | HOU | 13-19 | 8.2 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 14 | 18 | 0 | 14.7% | 66% |
| 3 | IND | 16-21 | 6.2 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 13 | 20 | 0 | 8.3% | 53% |
| 4 | LA | 24-18 | 29.5 | 7 | 7 | 72 | 16 | 93 | 1 | 31.8% | 63% |
| 5 | CAR | 36-10 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 47 | 21 | 73 | 1 | 7.1% | 67% |
| 6 | JAX | 35-16 | 21.9 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 17 | 91 | 1 | 15.4% | 68% |
| 8 | WAS | 15-18 | 18.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 129 | 1 | 0% | 73% |
| 9 | ARI | 9-29 | 14.2 | 6 | 6 | 31 | 16 | 51 | 0 | 16.7% | 62% |
| 10 | NE | 3-19 | 7.5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 59 | 0 | 3.8% | 67% |
| 11 | GB | 19-20 | 16.4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 14 | 71 | 1 | 6.5% | 57% |
| 12 | MIN | 27-30 | 9.5 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 13 | 30 | 0 | 8.5% | 55% |
| 13 | DET | 20-23 | 9.4 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 11 | 39 | 0 | 8.3% | 69% |
| 14 | SF | 13-38 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 38 | 0 | 8.3% | 79% |
| 15 | MIN | 12-30 | 9.9 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 79 | 0 | 3.2% | 69% |
| 16 | DET | 17-34 | 8.3 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 9 | 20 | 0 | 8.1% | 73% |
| 17 | SEA | 3-6 | 12.1 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 12 | 53 | 0 | 19.2% | 66% |
| 18 | GB | 24-22 | 12.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 65 | 1 | 8.3% | 79% |
| Receptions | 42 |
| Targets | 52 |
| Receiving yards | 386 |
| Carries | 253 |
| Rushing yards | 959 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 12.62 |
| Yards per target | 7.42 |
| Catch rate | 80.77% |
| Yards per carry | 3.79 |
| Snap share | 66.82% |
| Target share | 10.09% |
| Air-yards share | -0.28% |
| WOPR | 0.151 |
| RACR | 0.185 |
| Average depth of target | 0 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.5 |
| Total YAC | 405 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 89.6 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.17 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -2.29 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 54.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 43.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 5.84 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 22 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 8 of 46 |
| Target share | 19 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 17 of 46 |
The offense threw it 566 times. He took 9.89% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| D.J. Moore | 26.62% |
| Keenan Allen | 23% |
| Rome Odunze | 19.2% |
| Cole Kmet | 10.46% |
| D'Andre Swift ← | 9.89% |
| Roschon Johnson | 3.8% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 37% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.22 in those and 12.77 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 2 against MIN — 27.1 PPR on 31 touches and a 13.6% target share, in a game that finished 34-28. His worst was Week 1 against NE at 1.3, on 3 touches, final score 25-20. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.6; in the 5 decided by more, 10. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 13 points per game. He scored 12.46, 5.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 25-20 | 1.3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6.7% | 29% |
| 2 | MIN | 34-28 | 27.1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 175 | 1 | 13.6% | 75% |
| 3 | TB | 25-11 | 14.8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 130 | 0 | 5.7% | 54% |
| 4 | WAS | 34-31 | 17.9 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 14 | 56 | 1 | 11.8% | 63% |
| 5 | LA | 23-14 | 16.8 | 6 | 6 | 38 | 17 | 70 | 0 | 17.6% | 62% |
| 6 | NYJ | 14-20 | 17.8 | 8 | 10 | 40 | 10 | 18 | 1 | 23.3% | 57% |
| 7 | MIA | 31-17 | 10.5 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 15 | 62 | 0 | 10% | 68% |
| 8 | WAS | 38-31 | 14.4 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 57 | 1 | 8.6% | 70% |
| 9 | DAL | 28-23 | 9.4 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 18 | 43 | 0 | 9.5% | 65% |
| 11 | KC | 21-17 | 19.7 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 12 | 76 | 1 | 14.3% | 64% |
| 12 | BUF | 37-34 | 9.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 80 | 0 | 3.6% | 64% |
| 13 | SF | 19-42 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 14.3% | 42% |
| 14 | DAL | 13-33 | 3.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 39 | 0 | 0% | 51% |
| 15 | SEA | 17-20 | 9.5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 74 | 0 | 10% | 59% |
| 16 | NYG | 33-25 | 15.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 92 | 1 | 0% | 57% |
| 17 | ARI | 31-35 | 7.6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 61 | 0 | 4.3% | 47% |
| Receptions | 39 |
| Targets | 49 |
| Receiving yards | 214 |
| Carries | 229 |
| Rushing yards | 1,049 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 12.46 |
| Yards per target | 4.37 |
| Catch rate | 79.59% |
| Yards per carry | 4.58 |
| Snap share | 57.94% |
| Target share | 9.58% |
| Air-yards share | 0.38% |
| WOPR | 0.147 |
| RACR | 0.996 |
| Average depth of target | 0.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.4 |
| Total YAC | 267 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 83.2 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.56 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.12 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.1% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 35.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 41.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.82 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.18 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 8.05 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 24 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 41 of 49 |
| Target share | 25 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 10 of 49 |
The offense threw it 562 times. He took 9.33% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown | 30.1% |
| DeVonta Smith | 21.33% |
| Dallas Goedert | 15.81% |
| D'Andre Swift ← | 9.33% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 7.05% |
| Quez Watkins | 4% |
2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.95 in those and 13.57 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 17 against CHI — 27.7 PPR on 15 touches and a 13.8% target share, in a game that finished 41-10. His worst was Week 16 against CAR at 3.5, on 9 touches, final score 23-37. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.9; in the 6 decided by more, 14.7. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 11.9 points per game. He scored 13.65, 14.8% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.47 expected, a gap of -1.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 35-38 | 26.5 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 15 | 144 | 1 | 8.1% | 67% |
| 2 | WAS | 36-27 | 16.7 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 5 | 56 | 1 | 14.7% | 51% |
| 3 | MIN | 24-28 | 7.6 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 10.8% | 41% |
| 8 | MIA | 27-31 | 14.3 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 13.5% | 55% |
| 9 | GB | 15-9 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 16.7% | 16% |
| 10 | CHI | 31-30 | 8.2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 12% | 31% |
| 11 | NYG | 31-18 | 12.2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 12% | 31% |
| 12 | BUF | 25-28 | 10.3 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 22.9% | 34% |
| 13 | JAX | 40-14 | 21.1 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 14 | 62 | 1 | 15.4% | 51% |
| 14 | MIN | 34-23 | 6.9 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 11.1% | 36% |
| 15 | NYJ | 20-17 | 12.5 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 25% | 40% |
| 16 | CAR | 23-37 | 3.5 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 12.2% | 56% |
| 17 | CHI | 41-10 | 27.7 | 4 | 4 | 39 | 11 | 78 | 2 | 13.8% | 35% |
| 18 | GB | 20-16 | 15.6 | 7 | 7 | 61 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 21.2% | 39% |
| Receptions | 48 |
| Targets | 70 |
| Receiving yards | 389 |
| Carries | 99 |
| Rushing yards | 542 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 13.65 |
| Yards per target | 5.56 |
| Catch rate | 68.57% |
| Yards per carry | 5.47 |
| Snap share | 41.64% |
| Target share | 14.96% |
| Air-yards share | 0.81% |
| WOPR | 0.231 |
| RACR | -2.879 |
| Average depth of target | 0.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.1 |
| Total YAC | 440 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 96.7 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.58 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.47 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 16.1% |
| End-zone target share | 3.6% |
| Red-zone carry share | 25.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 10.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.47 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.47 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 3.31 |
The offense threw it 587 times. He took 12.57% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 26.21% |
| D'Andre Swift ← | 12.57% |
| Kalif Raymond | 11.49% |
| Josh Reynolds | 10.59% |
| D.J. Chark | 9.34% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 7.72% |
2 of his 14 games were blowouts, 25.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 24.4 in those and 12.88 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 7 against LA — 28.4 PPR on 23 touches and a 31.3% target share, in a game that finished 19-28. His worst was Week 12 against CHI at 3.9, on 6 touches, final score 14-16. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.3; in the 6 decided by more, 13.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 16.5 points per game. He scored 16.07, 2.4% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 2.18 expected, a gap of -2.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 33-41 | 24.4 | 8 | 11 | 65 | 11 | 39 | 1 | 19.6% | 68% |
| 2 | GB | 17-35 | 11.8 | 4 | 5 | 41 | 8 | 37 | 0 | 14.3% | 63% |
| 3 | BAL | 17-19 | 23.7 | 7 | 7 | 60 | 14 | 47 | 1 | 25% | 56% |
| 4 | CHI | 14-24 | 8.9 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 16.2% | 73% |
| 5 | MIN | 17-19 | 22.4 | 6 | 6 | 53 | 11 | 51 | 1 | 19.4% | 74% |
| 6 | CIN | 11-34 | 17.7 | 5 | 7 | 43 | 13 | 24 | 1 | 17.9% | 78% |
| 7 | LA | 19-28 | 28.4 | 8 | 10 | 96 | 13 | 48 | 1 | 31.3% | 75% |
| 8 | PHI | 6-44 | 8.1 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 12 | 27 | 0 | 15.6% | 71% |
| 10 | PIT | 16-16 | 16.5 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 33 | 130 | 0 | 25% | 93% |
| 11 | CLE | 10-13 | 22.6 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 136 | 1 | 17.4% | 73% |
| 12 | CHI | 14-16 | 3.9 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12% | 20% |
| 17 | SEA | 29-51 | 5.9 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 8.1% | 57% |
| 18 | GB | 37-30 | 14.6 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 17.2% | 54% |
| Receptions | 62 |
| Targets | 78 |
| Receiving yards | 452 |
| Carries | 151 |
| Rushing yards | 617 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 16.07 |
| Yards per target | 5.79 |
| Catch rate | 79.49% |
| Yards per carry | 4.09 |
| Snap share | 65.77% |
| Target share | 18.38% |
| Air-yards share | -1.26% |
| WOPR | 0.268 |
| RACR | -2.02 |
| Average depth of target | 0 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.8 |
| Total YAC | 500 |
| Broken tackles | 8 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 88.7 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.6 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -2.07 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 16.7% |
| End-zone target share | 5.3% |
| Red-zone carry share | 36.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 42.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.18 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -2.18 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 3.74 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 9 of 50 |
| Yards per target | 27 of 50 |
| Target share | 2 of 50 |
| Air-yards share | 47 of 50 |
The offense threw it 590 times. He took 14.08% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 21.48% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 15.16% |
| D'Andre Swift ← | 14.08% |
| Kalif Raymond | 12.82% |
| Josh Reynolds | 6.5% |
| Jamaal Williams | 5.05% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 11 | 71 | 16.4 | 6.27 | 19.41% |
| Tim Boyle | 2 | 7 | 14.25 | 1 | 12.75% |
4 of his 13 games were blowouts, 20.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.88 in those and 18.3 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 6 against JAX — 27.3 PPR on 18 touches and a 12.9% target share, in a game that finished 34-16. His worst was Week 3 against ARI at 2.9, on 2 touches, final score 26-23. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.4; in the 6 decided by more, 14.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 12.2 points per game. He scored 14.6, 19.5% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 23-27 | 11.3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 12.2% | 44% |
| 2 | GB | 21-42 | 12.2 | 5 | 5 | 60 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 16.7% | 34% |
| 3 | ARI | 26-23 | 2.9 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.5% | 9% |
| 4 | NO | 29-35 | 15.2 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 4 | 22 | 1 | 13.3% | 38% |
| 6 | JAX | 34-16 | 27.3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 116 | 2 | 12.9% | 38% |
| 7 | ATL | 23-22 | 14.8 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 9 | 27 | 1 | 15.6% | 46% |
| 8 | IND | 21-41 | 5.3 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10% | 62% |
| 9 | MIN | 20-34 | 12.7 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 13 | 64 | 0 | 11.4% | 40% |
| 10 | WAS | 30-27 | 25.9 | 5 | 5 | 68 | 16 | 81 | 1 | 15.6% | 73% |
| 14 | GB | 24-31 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 7 | 24 | 1 | 13.2% | 54% |
| 15 | TEN | 25-46 | 22.2 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 67 | 2 | 13.5% | 65% |
| 16 | TB | 7-47 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 10 | 45 | 0 | 16.7% | 68% |
| 17 | MIN | 35-37 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 54 | 1 | 9.7% | 57% |
| Receptions | 46 |
| Targets | 57 |
| Receiving yards | 357 |
| Carries | 114 |
| Rushing yards | 521 |
| Touchdowns | 10 |
| Points per game | 14.6 |
| Yards per target | 6.26 |
| Catch rate | 80.7% |
| Yards per carry | 4.57 |
| Snap share | 48.31% |
| Target share | 12.87% |
| Air-yards share | 1.38% |
| WOPR | 0.202 |
| RACR | 0.4 |
| Average depth of target | 0.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.1 |
| Total YAC | 351 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 104.5 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.72 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.47 |
| Red-zone targets | 9 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.2% |
| End-zone target share | 6.9% |
| Red-zone carry share | 28.2% |
| Goal-line carry share | 37.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.79 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.21 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 5.71 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 16 of 47 |
| Yards per target | 17 of 47 |
| Target share | 7 of 47 |
| Air-yards share | 9 of 47 |
The offense threw it 582 times. He took 10.22% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Marvin Jones | 20.61% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 18.1% |
| Danny Amendola | 12.37% |
| D'Andre Swift ← | 10.22% |
| Quintez Cephus | 6.27% |
| Kenny Golladay | 5.73% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 12 | 52 | 15.07 | 6.38 | 12.55% |
| Chase Daniel | 1 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 16.7% |
5 of his 13 games were blowouts, 40% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.2 in those and 14.44 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about D'Andre Swift →