Every team's fantasy playoff slate at QB, RB, WR and TE, ranked by a model we tested on five seasons of December football. It weighs what actually carried to the playoffs: the matchup, the game script and the weather.
Ranked by expected PPR per game for each team's position group against an average playoff slate, from opponent-adjusted ratings through Week 8, game script and December weather, weighted by how much of each carried to Weeks 15-17 in 2021-25.
| # | Team | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | PPR/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens | @ LAR | vs JAX | vs NYG | +1.86 |
| 2 | Commanders Stefon Diggs, Treylon Burks | vs ATL | @ MIN | @ JAX | +1.77 |
| 3 | Jaguars Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers | @ HOU | @ DAL | vs WAS | +1.67 |
| 4 | Raiders Tre Tucker, Cody White | vs DEN | vs TEN | @ ARI | +1.34 |
| 5 | Buccaneers Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin Jr. | vs NO | @ ATL | vs LAR | +1 |
| 6 | Giants Malik Nabers, Malachi Fields | vs CLE | @ DET | @ DAL | +0.84 |
| 7 | Broncos Jaylen Waddle, Courtland Sutton | @ LV | vs BUF | @ NE | +0.7 |
| 8 | Colts Keenan Allen, Josh Downs | @ TEN | vs CIN | @ CLE | +0.65 |
| 9 | Cardinals Michael Wilson, Kendrick Bourne | vs NYJ | @ NO | vs LV | +0.63 |
| 10 | Texans Nico Collins, Jaylin Noel | vs JAX | @ PHI | @ GB | +0.63 |
| 23 | Panthers Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker | vs CIN | @ PIT | vs SEA | -0.05 |
| 24 | Bengals Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase | @ CAR | @ IND | vs BAL | -0.22 |
| 25 | Lions Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams | @ MIN | vs NYG | @ CHI | -0.41 |
| 26 | Bills DJ Moore, Khalil Shakir | vs CHI | @ DEN | @ MIA | -0.96 |
| 27 | Steelers DK Metcalf, Germie Bernard | vs BAL | vs CAR | @ TEN | -1.24 |
| 28 | Ravens Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman | @ PIT | vs CLE | @ CIN | -1.28 |
| 29 | Patriots DeMario Douglas, A.J. Brown | @ KC | @ NYJ | vs DEN | -1.94 |
| 30 | Browns Denzel Boston, KC Concepcion | @ NYG | @ BAL | vs IND | -2.06 |
| 31 | Bears Luther Burden III, Rome Odunze | @ BUF | vs GB | vs DET | -2.52 |
| 32 | Packers Christian Watson, Matthew Golden | vs MIA | @ CHI | vs HOU | -4.48 |
| # | Team | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | PPR/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steelers Jaylen Warren, Rico Dowdle | vs BAL | vs CAR | @ TEN | +0.73 |
| 2 | Cardinals Tyler Allgeier, Jeremiyah Love | vs NYJ | @ NO | vs LV | +0.6 |
| 3 | Browns Quinshon Judkins, Dylan Sampson | @ NYG | @ BAL | vs IND | +0.59 |
| 4 | Bengals Chase Brown, Samaje Perine | @ CAR | @ IND | vs BAL | +0.43 |
| 5 | Jaguars Bhayshul Tuten, Chris Rodriguez Jr. | @ HOU | @ DAL | vs WAS | +0.41 |
| 6 | Raiders Ashton Jeanty, Mike Washington Jr. | vs DEN | vs TEN | @ ARI | +0.36 |
| 7 | Colts Jonathan Taylor, Seth McGowan | @ TEN | vs CIN | @ CLE | +0.33 |
| 8 | Packers Josh Jacobs, MarShawn Lloyd | vs MIA | @ CHI | vs HOU | +0.26 |
| 9 | Vikings Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason | vs DET | vs WAS | @ NYJ | +0.24 |
| 10 | Seahawks Emanuel Wilson, George Holani | @ PHI | vs LAR | @ CAR | +0.23 |
| 23 | Broncos Jonah Coleman, J.K. Dobbins | @ LV | vs BUF | @ NE | -0.15 |
| 24 | Texans Woody Marks, David Montgomery | vs JAX | @ PHI | @ GB | -0.3 |
| 25 | Rams Kyren Williams, Blake Corum | vs DAL | @ SEA | @ TB | -0.31 |
| 26 | Chiefs Kenneth Walker III, Emmett Johnson | vs NE | vs SF | @ LAC | -0.35 |
| 27 | Jets Braelon Allen, Isaiah Davis | @ ARI | vs NE | vs MIN | -0.41 |
| 28 | Lions Jahmyr Gibbs, Sione Vaki | @ MIN | vs NYG | @ CHI | -0.47 |
| 29 | Eagles Saquon Barkley, Elijah Mitchell | vs SEA | vs HOU | @ SF | -0.62 |
| 30 | Cowboys Javonte Williams, Tyler Goodson | @ LAR | vs JAX | vs NYG | -0.65 |
| 31 | Panthers Chuba Hubbard, Trevor Etienne | vs CIN | @ PIT | vs SEA | -0.68 |
| 32 | Commanders Rachaad White, Jeremy McNichols | vs ATL | @ MIN | @ JAX | -0.89 |
| # | Team | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | PPR/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikings T.J. Hockenson | vs DET | vs WAS | @ NYJ | +1.68 |
| 2 | Falcons Kyle Pitts | @ WAS | vs TB | vs NO | +1.13 |
| 3 | Chargers Oronde Gadsden II | vs SF | @ MIA | vs KC | +0.73 |
| 4 | Raiders Brock Bowers | vs DEN | vs TEN | @ ARI | +0.72 |
| 5 | Ravens Mark Andrews | @ PIT | vs CLE | @ CIN | +0.72 |
| 6 | Colts Tyler Warren | @ TEN | vs CIN | @ CLE | +0.71 |
| 7 | Saints Juwan Johnson | @ TB | vs ARI | @ ATL | +0.68 |
| 8 | Giants Isaiah Likely | vs CLE | @ DET | @ DAL | +0.65 |
| 9 | Bills Dalton Kincaid | vs CHI | @ DEN | @ MIA | +0.61 |
| 10 | Titans Gunnar Helm | vs IND | @ LV | vs PIT | +0.49 |
| 23 | Bears Colston Loveland | @ BUF | vs GB | vs DET | -0.4 |
| 24 | Chiefs Travis Kelce | vs NE | vs SF | @ LAC | -0.66 |
| 25 | Commanders Chig Okonkwo | vs ATL | @ MIN | @ JAX | -0.66 |
| 26 | Seahawks AJ Barner | @ PHI | vs LAR | @ CAR | -0.71 |
| 27 | Cowboys Jake Ferguson | @ LAR | vs JAX | vs NYG | -0.72 |
| 28 | Eagles Dallas Goedert | vs SEA | vs HOU | @ SF | -0.75 |
| 29 | Lions Sam LaPorta | @ MIN | vs NYG | @ CHI | -0.78 |
| 30 | Broncos Nate Adkins | @ LV | vs BUF | @ NE | -0.82 |
| 31 | Texans Dalton Schultz | vs JAX | @ PHI | @ GB | -1 |
| 32 | Dolphins Greg Dulcich | @ GB | vs LAC | vs BUF | -1.31 |
| # | Team | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | PPR/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikings Kyler Murray | vs DET | vs WAS | @ NYJ | +1.16 |
| 2 | Jaguars Trevor Lawrence | @ HOU | @ DAL | vs WAS | +0.77 |
| 3 | Giants Jameis Winston | vs CLE | @ DET | @ DAL | +0.64 |
| 4 | Raiders Kirk Cousins | vs DEN | vs TEN | @ ARI | +0.5 |
| 5 | Bears Caleb Williams | @ BUF | vs GB | vs DET | +0.46 |
| 6 | Browns Deshaun Watson | @ NYG | @ BAL | vs IND | +0.39 |
| 7 | Bills Josh Allen | vs CHI | @ DEN | @ MIA | +0.36 |
| 8 | Packers Jordan Love | vs MIA | @ CHI | vs HOU | +0.32 |
| 9 | Cardinals Jacoby Brissett | vs NYJ | @ NO | vs LV | +0.29 |
| 10 | Falcons Michael Penix Jr. | @ WAS | vs TB | vs NO | +0.24 |
| 23 | Ravens Lamar Jackson | @ PIT | vs CLE | @ CIN | -0.25 |
| 24 | Rams Matthew Stafford | vs DAL | @ SEA | @ TB | -0.39 |
| 25 | Jets Geno Smith | @ ARI | vs NE | vs MIN | -0.43 |
| 26 | Texans C.J. Stroud | vs JAX | @ PHI | @ GB | -0.45 |
| 27 | Panthers Bryce Young | vs CIN | @ PIT | vs SEA | -0.47 |
| 28 | Chiefs Patrick Mahomes | vs NE | vs SF | @ LAC | -0.51 |
| 29 | Eagles Tanner McKee | vs SEA | vs HOU | @ SF | -0.52 |
| 30 | Dolphins Malik Willis | @ GB | vs LAC | vs BUF | -0.59 |
| 31 | 49ers Brock Purdy | @ LAC | @ KC | vs PHI | -0.6 |
| 32 | Commanders Jayden Daniels | vs ATL | @ MIN | @ JAX | -0.87 |
2021–25, using only what was known by Week 8, 10 and 12 each year: the 10 easiest playoff slates by each method against the 10 toughest, in what the position group actually scored per game in Weeks 15–17.
Opponent-adjusted ratings. Every game this season is scored in PPR for each position group, then fit as offense plus defense plus home field, so a defense that has faced three bad offenses is not called stingy. When two teams already met, both are rated without that game, so one afternoon does not count twice in the rematch.
Game script. The same fit on real scores says how many points each opponent's defense gives up and its offense scores. That tells you whether a game should be a shootout or a lead to protect.
December weather. Indoor stadiums, and the average December game temperature at every open-air stadium from the last six seasons.
Weighted by what carried over. Each piece is weighted by how much of it held up in Weeks 15–17 of 2021–25. The model was fit on four seasons and tested on the fifth, every way round. Raw "fantasy points allowed" tables, the usual playoff-schedule chart, are scored the same way above.
Numbers are PPR points per game for the whole position group (all of a team's WRs, for example) against an average playoff slate this season. A player's share is his part of that room. The ratings update with every week's results. Our research on schedule strength