Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 6.98 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 175.2, usage worth 6.7.
26 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class
| SLEEPER | 239.4 |
| ESPN | 170.3 |
| YAHOO | 132.9 |
| UNDERDOG | 183.4 |
| CBS | 158.1 |
| FFA | 171 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 7 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE69 |
| Bye week | 6 |
| ADP standard deviation | 45.6 picks |
Our board has him at 103.8 points, 6.8 per game — 40.7 catches, 469 yards, 2.7 TDs. That is TE5, 168 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 3.6 points per game to a ceiling of 11.1, with the median at 6.8. Boom rate 63%, bust rate 47%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 175.2 on consensus and our board has him 168. We rank him 7.2 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
default WR1-at-TE candidate on the league's worst WR room (Dolphins), early camp reports as Malik Willis's favorite target
buy · medium conviction · 2026-08Miami Dolphins returns 1 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, wr1, te1, hc, oc. Malik Willis at quarterback, Jeff Hafley as head coach, Bobby Slowik calling it. The offense projects to 30 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 26.1 rushes.
In: Malik Willis (qb), Caleb Douglas (wr1), Chris Bell (wr2), Jalen Tolbert (wr4), Tutu Atwell (wr5), Kevin Coleman Jr. (wr6), Terrace Marshall Jr. (wr7), Donovan Edwards (rb4), Will Kacmarek (te2). Out: Tua Tagovailoa (qb), Tyreek Hill (wr1), Jaylen Waddle (wr2), Theo Wease Jr. (wr4), Darren Waller (te1).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 14%, with a bear case of 11.8% and a bull case of 16.2% and a full range of 10.6% to 17.2%. That comes from 20 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| De'Von Achane | 15% |
| Greg Dulcich ← | 14% |
| Tutu Atwell | 10.4% |
| Caleb Douglas | 9.3% |
| Malik Washington | 9.2% |
| Chris Bell | 9.1% |
Key additions: QB Malik Willis signed to 3 year deal (was with Green Bay), RG Kadyn Proctor RD 1 RG, WR Caleb Douglas 3rd round draft pick, WR Chris Bell 3rd round draft pick, signed WR Jalen Tolbert, signed WR Tutu Atwell, signed WR Terrace Marshall Jr
Key departures: Tua Tagovailoa was released, Tyreek Hill was released, WR Jaylen Waddle was traded, and TE Darren Waller remains a free agent.
Notes: Dolphins sign Malik Willis in free agency to 3 year deal. Mobile QB with high fantasy upside. Offense skill positions (other than Achance) now worst in NFL. Unsure who starting WR will be. Dolphins drafted Caleb Douglas & Chris Bell (both have very good potential). Malik Washington is not good, Tutu Atwell unlikely to be highly productive, Terrace Marshall & Turpin also signed. Both are also not good. Greg Dulcich does have potential if Willis can get the offense working De'Von Achane landed HUGE contract for 4 years 64 million keeping him in Miami through 2030.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Malik Willis, avg 8.9 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30 att/g; New OC Bobby Slowik — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jeff Hafley.
20 historical comps for TEs age ~25, prior share 15.4%, same team, OC change, QB change. Distribution: median 14.1%, p25-p75 [10.9%, 17.4%], tails [9.2%, 19.0%]. Closest comps: Trey McBride 2022→2023 (ARI: 12.1%→19.8%); Jordan Akins 2021→2022 (HOU: 10.3%→11.0%); Kylen Granson 2022→2023 (IND: 8.8%→10.6%).
self-anchored 30% to own 15.4% role (1yr), 70% to comp median 14.1%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: MIA rates 19.5 against a league average of 23, 3.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -3 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -4.8 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | -5.1 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -13.9 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +187.3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, TEs crash the following year 47% of the time (hold 53%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 47% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irv Smith | 2022 | 6.9 | 65% | -17.9% |
| Gerald Everett | 2020 | 6.2 | 64% | +10.7% |
| Jonnu Smith | 2021 | 4.2 | 63% | -39% |
| Jonnu Smith | 2022 | 4.3 | 63% | +78.8% |
| Brenton Strange | 2024 | 6.5 | 61% | +49.3% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2022, round 3, pick 80 by DEN |
| College | UCLA |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′4″ |
| Weight | 243 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.69s |
| Vertical | 34″ |
| Broad jump | 122″ |
| 3-cone | 7.05s |
| Shuttle | 4.37s |
His best game was Week 17 against TB — 16.1 PPR on 6 targets and a 27.3% target share, in a game that finished 20-17. His worst was Week 10 against BUF at 3.2, on 4 targets, final score 30-13. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.1; in the 6 decided by more, 6.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 6.7 points per game. He scored 6.98, 4.8% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | BAL | 6-28 | 9.9 | 5 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 13.5% | 36% |
| 10 | BUF | 30-13 | 3.2 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 19% | 58% |
| 11 | WAS | 16-13 | 3.8 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 20% | 54% |
| 13 | NO | 21-17 | 4.4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 10% | 37% |
| 14 | NYJ | 34-10 | 7.1 | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 14.3% | 54% |
| 15 | PIT | 15-28 | 6.6 | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 | 7.7% | 38% |
| 16 | CIN | 21-45 | 5.6 | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 | 10.3% | 29% |
| 17 | TB | 20-17 | 16.1 | 5 | 6 | 58 | 1 | 27.3% | 36% |
| 18 | NE | 10-38 | 6.1 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 16.7% | 52% |
| Receptions | 26 |
| Targets | 33 |
| Receiving yards | 335 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | -7 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 6.98 |
| Yards per target | 10.15 |
| Catch rate | 78.79% |
| Yards per carry | -7 |
| Snap share | 43.78% |
| Target share | 15.42% |
| Air-yards share | 9.2% |
| WOPR | 0.296 |
| RACR | 2.589 |
| Average depth of target | 4.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.2 |
| Total YAC | 199 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 119.1 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.95 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.18 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.4% |
| End-zone target share | 8.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 6.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.18 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.18 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.39 |
The offense threw it 479 times. He took 7.33% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jaylen Waddle | 22.22% |
| De'Von Achane | 18.89% |
| Malik Washington | 14.44% |
| Darren Waller | 7.56% |
| Greg Dulcich ← | 7.33% |
| Tyreek Hill | 6.44% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 6 | 20 | 5.83 | 10 | 14.08% |
| Quinn Ewers | 3 | 13 | 9.27 | 10.38 | 18.1% |
5 of his 9 games were blowouts, 50.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.38 in those and 8.1 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 2 against PIT — 4.6 PPR on 8 targets and a 24.2% target share, in a game that finished 6-13. His worst was Week 15 against BAL at 0, on 0 targets, final score 14-35. Across 4 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 4 times.
His usage that season was worth 7.1 points per game. He scored 1.95, 63.2% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 20-26 | 3.2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 7.1% | 67% |
| 2 | PIT | 6-13 | 4.6 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 24.2% | 54% |
| 4 | NYJ | 10-9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 39% |
| 15 | BAL | 14-35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 10% |
| Receptions | 5 |
| Targets | 12 |
| Receiving yards | 28 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 1.95 |
| Yards per target | 2.33 |
| Catch rate | 41.67% |
| Snap share | 42.5% |
| Target share | 8.82% |
| Air-yards share | 5.6% |
| WOPR | 0.172 |
| RACR | 0.438 |
| Average depth of target | 5.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 2.6 |
| Total YAC | 15 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.2% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 49.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -1.9 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.4% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.14 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.14 |
The offense threw it 569 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Courtland Sutton | 25.09% |
| Javonte Williams | 13.01% |
| Devaughn Vele | 10.22% |
| Troy Franklin | 9.85% |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 9.67% |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 8.36% |
1 of his 4 games were blowouts, 0% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0 in those and 2.6 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His usage that season was worth 3.5 points per game. He scored 2.75, 20.3% below it. The engine classified the season as low_volume.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 16-17 | 4.2 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 6.3% | 33% |
| 6 | KC | 8-19 | 1.3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9.1% | 21% |
| Receptions | 3 |
| Targets | 4 |
| Receiving yards | 25 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 2.75 |
| Yards per target | 6.25 |
| Catch rate | 75% |
| Snap share | 27% |
| Target share | 7.7% |
| Air-yards share | 8.65% |
| WOPR | 0.175 |
| RACR | 0.955 |
| Average depth of target | 5.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 1.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.7 |
| Total YAC | 5 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 51 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -2.08 |
The offense threw it 513 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Courtland Sutton | 18.99% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 18.35% |
| Javonte Williams | 12.24% |
| Samaje Perine | 11.81% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 7.59% |
| Adam Trautman | 7.38% |
His best game was Week 13 against BAL — 14.5 PPR on 8 targets and a 38.1% target share, in a game that finished 9-10. His worst was Week 15 against ARI at 2.1, on 2 targets, final score 24-15. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.6; in the 3 decided by more, 6.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 9.6 points per game. He scored 8.61, 10.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | LAC | 16-19 | 12.4 | 2 | 3 | 44 | 1 | 12% | 71% |
| 7 | NYJ | 9-16 | 11.1 | 6 | 9 | 51 | 0 | 20% | 59% |
| 8 | JAX | 21-17 | 12.7 | 4 | 5 | 87 | 0 | 19.2% | 80% |
| 10 | TEN | 10-17 | 2.1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 10.3% | 89% |
| 11 | LV | 16-22 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 17.9% | 83% |
| 12 | CAR | 10-23 | 3.1 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 9.4% | 87% |
| 13 | BAL | 9-10 | 14.5 | 6 | 8 | 85 | 0 | 38.1% | 72% |
| 14 | KC | 28-34 | 7.2 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 18.6% | 75% |
| 15 | ARI | 24-15 | 2.1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 7.7% | 68% |
| 16 | LA | 14-51 | 13.9 | 4 | 8 | 39 | 1 | 23.5% | 67% |
| Receptions | 33 |
| Targets | 55 |
| Receiving yards | 411 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 8.61 |
| Yards per target | 7.47 |
| Catch rate | 60% |
| Snap share | 75.1% |
| Target share | 17.67% |
| Air-yards share | 20.86% |
| WOPR | 0.411 |
| RACR | 0.95 |
| Average depth of target | 11.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.8 |
| Total YAC | 155 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 72.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.05 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 3.8% |
| End-zone target share | 6.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.43 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.57 |
The offense threw it 571 times. He took 10.4% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Courtland Sutton | 20.6% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 18.9% |
| Greg Dulcich ← | 10.4% |
| Latavius Murray | 6.43% |
| Kendall Hinton | 6.24% |
| Melvin Gordon | 6.05% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 44 | 9.11 | 7.93 | 18.63% |
| Brett Rypien | 2 | 11 | 6.6 | 5.64 | 13.85% |
1 of his 10 games were blowouts, 16.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.9 in those and 9.57 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Greg Dulcich →