Kyren Williams — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 15.49 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 32.5, usage worth 14.2.

25 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class

SLEEPER	31
ESPN	42.5
YAHOO	29.5
UNDERDOG	32.4
CBS	26.8
FFA	25

Draft-room facts

Goes around	Round 3, pick 9 in a 12-team draft
Positional rank	RB15
Bye week	11
ADP standard deviation	6.9 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 224.4 points, 14 per game — 1,048 rushing yards, 8.8 rushing TDs, 30.2 catches. That is RB3, 25 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 8.6 points per game to a ceiling of 20.5, with the median at 14. Boom rate 47%, bust rate 39%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 32.5 on consensus and our board has him 25. We rank him 7.5 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Los Angeles Rams returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Matthew Stafford at quarterback, Sean McVay as head coach, Nate Scheelhaase calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 26.5 rushes.

In: Ty Simpson (qb2), Jordan Whittington (wr3), Konata Mumpfield (wr4), CJ Daniels (wr5), Tyler Scott (wr7), Jarquez Hunter (rb4), Max Klare (te2). Out: Tutu Atwell (wr4), Davis Allen (te2).

The projected carry split across the offense:

Kyren Williams ←	60.7%
Blake Corum	31.2%
Ronnie Rivers	6.8%
Jarquez Hunter	1.4%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Matthew Stafford returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Nate Scheelhaase — pass rate and tempo may shift.

How the carry projection was built

Projected carry share	60.7%
Projected carries per game	13.2
Projected carries, full season	224
Last season, carries per game	15.2

That is a reduction of 2 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 26.5 rushing attempts a game.

Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.

Offensive environment: LAR rates 27 against a league average of 23, 4.1 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

Season	Games missed	Main beneficiary	Their PPR gain
2023	2	Ronnie Rivers	+3.3

Read the full Kyren Williams study →

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved -3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

Player	Season	Their PPG	Similarity	Next year
Tony Pollard	2023	13.1	67%	+4.4%
Chuba Hubbard	2024	16.1	65%	-21.1%
Dalvin Cook	2022	14	65%	-56.5%
Najee Harris	2022	13.3	64%	-1.4%
Raheem Mostert	2023	17.8	63%	-48.5%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 3 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted	2022, round 5, pick 164 by LAR
College	Notre Dame
Age at draft	22
Height	5′9″
Weight	194 lb
40-yard dash	4.65s
Vertical	32″
Broad jump	116″

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game	15.6
Week-to-week variation	0.5
Boom rate	9.8%
Bust rate	17.1%
Games missed per season	0.8
Injury history	Ankle
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score	-0.14

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · LA · 17 games

His best game was Week 5 against SF — 31.1 PPR on 24 touches and a 21.7% target share, in a game that finished 23-26. His worst was Week 12 against TB at 5.8, on 13 touches, final score 34-7. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.1; in the 8 decided by more, 13.7. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 14.2 points per game. He scored 15.49, 12.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 5 against 2.8 expected, a gap of 2.2.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Car	Rush	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	HOU	14-9	13.9	1	2	3	18	66	1	7.1%	82%
2	TEN	33-19	10	2	2	14	17	66	0	6.3%	70%
3	PHI	26-33	19.2	2	3	18	20	94	1	9.1%	76%
4	IND	27-20	10.4	3	4	17	13	77	0	10%	68%
5	SF	23-26	31.1	8	10	66	14	65	2	21.7%	91%
6	BAL	17-3	16.7	2	2	37	13	50	1	7.7%	75%
7	JAX	35-7	8.5	2	3	11	12	54	0	9.1%	60%
9	NO	34-10	17.4	0	0	0	25	114	1	0%	69%
10	SF	42-26	22.4	2	3	11	14	73	2	8.8%	58%
11	SEA	21-19	16.6	1	2	5	12	91	1	7.4%	69%
12	TB	34-7	5.8	1	1	2	12	46	0	2.9%	66%
13	CAR	28-31	13.2	0	1	0	13	72	1	3.7%	67%
14	ARI	45-17	17.7	2	2	13	13	84	1	6.5%	51%
15	DET	41-34	21.8	1	1	10	15	78	2	2.6%	54%
16	SEA	37-38	11.5	3	6	15	23	70	0	12.5%	71%
17	ATL	24-27	16	3	3	38	13	92	0	8.3%	71%
18	ARI	37-20	11.1	3	5	21	12	60	0	13.5%	63%

Production

Receptions	36
Targets	50
Receiving yards	281
Carries	259
Rushing yards	1,252
Touchdowns	13
Points per game	15.49
Yards per target	5.62
Catch rate	72%
Yards per carry	4.83

Role

Snap share	68.29%
Target share	8.07%
Air-yards share	2.02%
WOPR	0.135
RACR	1.215

Efficiency

Average depth of target	2.7
Yards after catch per reception	4.3
Yards before catch per reception	3.5
Total YAC	155
Broken tackles	1
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	105.5
Rushing yards over expected	0
Receiving EPA per game	0.5
Rushing EPA per game	0.29

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	14
Red-zone target share	11.1%
End-zone target share	0%
Red-zone carry share	61.6%
Goal-line carry share	57.1%
Expected receiving TDs	2.8
Actual receiving TDs	5
Receiving TD luck	2.2
Expected rushing TDs	11

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game	11 of 49
Yards per target	30 of 49
Target share	31 of 49
Air-yards share	4 of 49

Who else ate

The offense threw it 597 times. He took 8.61% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Puka Nacua	28.57%
Davante Adams	19.62%
Colby Parkinson	9.64%
Kyren Williams ←	8.61%
Tyler Higbee	6.2%
Davis Allen	5.68%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 23% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.1 in those and 17.08 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · LA · 16 games

His best game was Week 3 against SF — 31.6 PPR on 26 touches and a 8.7% target share, in a game that finished 27-24. His worst was Week 11 against NE at 8.6, on 15 touches, final score 28-22. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.9; in the 4 decided by more, 17.2. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.4 points per game. He scored 17.01, 1.5% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Car	Rush	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	DET	20-26	14.4	3	3	4	18	50	1	6.3%	91%
2	ARI	10-41	15.2	4	5	27	12	25	1	18.5%	79%
3	SF	27-24	31.6	2	2	27	24	89	3	8.7%	90%
4	CHI	18-24	20.4	4	4	10	19	94	1	13.8%	79%
5	GB	19-24	15.5	1	1	3	22	102	1	2.2%	86%
7	LV	20-15	19.6	0	0	0	21	76	2	0%	89%
8	MIN	30-20	22.6	5	7	19	23	97	1	20.6%	89%
9	SEA	26-20	10.5	1	3	26	22	69	0	7.1%	99%
10	MIA	15-23	11.2	5	6	20	15	62	0	13.6%	93%
11	NE	28-22	8.6	0	0	0	15	86	0	0%	81%
12	PHI	20-37	11.2	0	0	0	16	72	1	0%	91%
13	NO	21-14	18.3	1	1	9	15	104	1	4.3%	68%
14	BUF	44-42	23.7	2	2	10	29	87	2	6.7%	83%
15	SF	12-6	13.2	2	2	4	29	108	0	7.7%	86%
16	NYJ	19-9	19.9	1	1	7	23	122	1	5.3%	83%
17	ARI	13-9	16.2	3	3	16	13	56	1	10.7%	95%

Production

Receptions	34
Targets	40
Receiving yards	182
Carries	316
Rushing yards	1,299
Touchdowns	16
Points per game	17.01
Yards per target	4.55
Catch rate	85%
Yards per carry	4.11

Role

Snap share	86.38%
Target share	7.84%
Air-yards share	-1.35%
WOPR	0.109
RACR	0.448

Efficiency

Average depth of target	-0.7
Yards after catch per reception	5.7
Yards before catch per reception	-0.4
Total YAC	195
Broken tackles	2
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	102.3
Rushing yards over expected	0
Receiving EPA per game	-0.18
Rushing EPA per game	-1.47

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	11
Red-zone target share	11.7%
End-zone target share	5.3%
Red-zone carry share	77.9%
Goal-line carry share	75%
Expected receiving TDs	2.93
Actual receiving TDs	3
Receiving TD luck	0.07
Expected rushing TDs	12.43

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game	10 of 46
Yards per target	35 of 46
Target share	30 of 46
Air-yards share	31 of 46

Who else ate

The offense threw it 559 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Puka Nacua	19.59%
Cooper Kupp	18.48%
Demarcus Robinson	11.83%
Tutu Atwell	11.46%
Colby Parkinson	9.06%
Tyler Johnson	7.58%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 9.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.2 in those and 16.93 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · LA · 12 games

His best game was Week 12 against ARI — 38.4 PPR on 22 touches and a 19.4% target share, in a game that finished 37-14. His worst was Week 5 against PHI at 7.7, on 15 touches, final score 14-23. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 21.4; in the 5 decided by more, 21.1. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.7 points per game. He scored 21.25, 21.4% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Car	Rush	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	SEA	30-13	17.4	0	2	2	15	52	2	5.4%	65%
2	SF	23-30	28	6	10	48	14	52	2	19.2%	95%
3	CIN	16-19	8.5	2	7	27	10	38	0	21.9%	100%
4	IND	29-23	27.7	3	3	24	25	103	2	7.7%	72%
5	PHI	14-23	7.7	2	2	4	13	53	0	5.9%	84%
6	ARI	26-9	21.8	0	0	0	20	158	1	0%	82%
12	ARI	37-14	38.4	6	6	61	16	143	2	19.4%	61%
13	CLE	36-19	20.2	3	5	24	21	88	1	14.7%	94%
14	BAL	31-37	14.3	3	4	-1	25	114	0	10.3%	90%
15	WAS	28-20	24.5	5	7	3	27	152	1	21.9%	77%
16	NO	30-22	16.4	0	0	0	22	104	1	0%	79%
17	NYG	26-25	30.1	2	2	14	20	87	3	5.9%	94%

Production

Receptions	32
Targets	48
Receiving yards	206
Carries	228
Rushing yards	1,144
Touchdowns	15
Points per game	21.25
Yards per target	4.29
Catch rate	66.67%
Yards per carry	5.02

Role

Snap share	82.75%
Target share	11.03%
Air-yards share	0.3%
WOPR	0.168
RACR	2.146

Efficiency

Average depth of target	0.2
Yards after catch per reception	8.6
Yards before catch per reception	-2.2
Total YAC	275
Broken tackles	1
Drop rate	0.1%
Passer rating when targeted	87.7
Rushing yards over expected	0
Receiving EPA per game	-1.3
Rushing EPA per game	1.96

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	13
Red-zone target share	15.9%
End-zone target share	6.5%
Red-zone carry share	62.6%
Goal-line carry share	60.7%
Expected receiving TDs	2.91
Actual receiving TDs	3
Receiving TD luck	0.09
Expected rushing TDs	10.26

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game	2 of 49
Yards per target	44 of 49
Target share	18 of 49
Air-yards share	12 of 49

Who else ate

The offense threw it 583 times. He took 8.65% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Puka Nacua	28.83%
Cooper Kupp	17.12%
Tyler Higbee	12.61%
Tutu Atwell	12.07%
Kyren Williams ←	8.65%
Demarcus Robinson	7.03%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 12 games were blowouts, 38.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 24.45 in those and 21.36 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2022 · LA · 8 games

His best game was Week 12 against KC — 9 PPR on 14 touches and a 12.5% target share, in a game that finished 10-26. His worst was Week 17 against LAC at 0.6, on 2 touches, final score 10-31. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.4; in the 5 decided by more, 4.1. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 5 points per game. He scored 3.81, 23.4% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Car	Rush	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
10	ARI	17-27	6.9	3	3	30	1	9	0	8.1%	27%
11	NO	20-27	5.4	1	2	8	7	36	0	7.4%	55%
12	KC	10-26	9	3	3	25	11	35	0	12.5%	70%
13	SEA	23-27	0.9	0	1	0	3	9	0	4%	28%
14	LV	17-16	3.9	1	2	10	3	19	0	5.9%	30%
15	GB	12-24	0.7	0	0	0	2	7	0	0%	9%
16	DEN	51-14	3.1	1	1	3	6	18	0	3.6%	12%
17	LAC	10-31	0.6	0	0	0	2	6	0	0%	6%

Production

Receptions	9
Targets	12
Receiving yards	76
Carries	35
Rushing yards	139
Touchdowns	0
Points per game	3.81
Yards per target	6.33
Catch rate	75%
Yards per carry	3.97

Role

Snap share	29.63%
Target share	5.19%
Air-yards share	0.41%
WOPR	0.081
RACR	2.166

Efficiency

Average depth of target	1.4
Yards after catch per reception	8.9
Yards before catch per reception	-0.4
Total YAC	80
Broken tackles	1
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	56.2
Rushing yards over expected	0
Receiving EPA per game	-0.21
Rushing EPA per game	-0.53

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	1
Red-zone target share	1.5%
End-zone target share	0%
Expected receiving TDs	0.13
Actual receiving TDs	0
Receiving TD luck	-0.13
Expected rushing TDs	0

Who else ate

The offense threw it 529 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tyler Higbee	20.93%
Cooper Kupp	18.99%
Ben Skowronek	11.82%
Allen Robinson	10.08%
Van Jefferson	8.53%
Tutu Atwell	6.78%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 4 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Baker Mayfield	4	3	2.07	4.33	2.38%
John Wolford	2	4	3.9	7.5	6.05%
Matthew Stafford	1	2	5.4	4	7.4%
Bryce Perkins	1	3	9	8.33	12.5%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 8 games were blowouts, 12.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.85 in those and 3.4 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

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