Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5.56 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 195.4, usage worth 5.9.
27 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| SLEEPER | 251.5 |
| ESPN | 170.2 |
| UNDERDOG | 215.9 |
| CBS | 164.6 |
| FFA | 208 |
| Goes around | Round 17, pick 3 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB114 |
| Bye week | 11 |
| ADP standard deviation | 48.6 picks |
Green Bay Packers returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1. Jordan Love at quarterback, Matt LaFleur as head coach, Adam Stenavich calling it. The offense projects to 30.2 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 28.2 rushes.
In: Skyy Moore (wr6), Will Sheppard (wr7), MarShawn Lloyd (rb3), Pierre Strong Jr. (rb4). Out: Romeo Doubs (wr1), Emmanuel Wilson (rb2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Josh Jacobs | 67.9% |
| Chris Brooks | 17.4% |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 11.3% |
| Pierre Strong Jr. | 3.4% |
Key additions: Drafted Jager Burton C in the 5th round, extended Jayden Reed on 3 year deal.
Key departures: Rasheed Walker starting O lineman left to Panthers. RB Emmanuel Wilson left, opening up backup and 3rd down back role for another RB to fill the gap. Romeo Doubs to New England Patriots, Wicks to Eagles. Massive opportunity for Watson, Golden, and Reed. We will have to see who plays the most on 2 WR sets.
Notes: Key departures: Romeo Doubs to New England Patriots, Wicks to Eagles. Massive opportunity for Watson, Golden, and Reed. We will have to see who plays the most on 2 WR sets. Reed landed 3 year 50m extension with packers. Golden could be primed for a breakout. Kraft should be recovered from torn ACL early in the season & Musgrave will fill in if he misses time but no true upside to him. Savion Williams will compete for WR4 but it is unlikely he holds any true value. Jordan Love needs to stay healthy but could be primed for a great 2026 season. Josh Jacobs is showing signs for concern with efficiency & managers need to think about him, however, packers have not brought in any competition so in the meantime he should be ok. The departure of Emmanuel Wilson to Seattle should not be underlooked. He was a highly productive back up RB & could open the door for a healthy Josh Jacobs to return to his peak form briefly. AND another RB will assume a very potentially productive handcuff opportunity.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jordan Love returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (28.8 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.2 att/g.
Offensive environment: GB rates 24.6 against a league average of 23, 1.6 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.4 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +4.1 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -0.7 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +0.2 · neutral |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +50% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, RBs crash the following year 59% of the time (hold 41%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 59% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 2024 | 6.2 | 75% | +30.3% |
| Joshua Kelley | 2022 | 5.4 | 74% | +2% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 2024 | 6.1 | 74% | -16.5% |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2022 | 6.4 | 74% | +43.4% |
| Zamir White | 2023 | 5.7 | 74% | -34.3% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Career PPR per game | 5.7 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1 |
| Boom rate | 20% |
| Bust rate | 46.7% |
| Games missed per season | 0.7 |
| Injury history | Shoulder |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.51 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 12 against MIN — 26.5 PPR on 30 touches and a 9.5% target share, in a game that finished 23-6. His worst was Week 2 against WAS at 0, on 0 touches, final score 27-18. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.5; in the 7 decided by more, 7.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 5.9 points per game. He scored 5.56, 10.8% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 27-13 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 4% |
| 2 | WAS | 27-18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 7% |
| 3 | CLE | 10-13 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 0% | 23% |
| 4 | DAL | 40-40 | 11.1 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 8 | 44 | 0 | 8.3% | 30% |
| 6 | CIN | 27-18 | 1.7 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 3.8% | 18% |
| 7 | ARI | 27-23 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 3.6% | 34% |
| 8 | PIT | 35-25 | 11.7 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 11 | 61 | 0 | 11.4% | 42% |
| 9 | CAR | 13-16 | 2.7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 5.7% | 32% |
| 10 | PHI | 7-10 | 1.4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | 21% |
| 11 | NYG | 27-20 | 13.9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 40 | 1 | 4% | 71% |
| 12 | MIN | 23-6 | 26.5 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 28 | 107 | 2 | 9.5% | 56% |
| 13 | DET | 31-24 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 19% |
| 14 | CHI | 28-21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 15% |
| 15 | DEN | 26-34 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 20% |
| 16 | CHI | 16-22 | 8.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 82 | 0 | 0% | 46% |
| 17 | BAL | 24-41 | 3.4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 4% | 36% |
| 18 | MIN | 3-16 | 5.8 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 44 | 0 | 10% | 55% |
| Receptions | 15 |
| Targets | 17 |
| Receiving yards | 99 |
| Carries | 125 |
| Rushing yards | 496 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 5.56 |
| Yards per target | 5.82 |
| Catch rate | 88.24% |
| Yards per carry | 3.97 |
| Snap share | 31.12% |
| Target share | 3.72% |
| Air-yards share | -1.86% |
| WOPR | 0.042 |
| RACR | 1.256 |
| Average depth of target | -1.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -2.3 |
| Total YAC | 133 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 90.9 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.06 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.45 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 2.8% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 24.2% |
| Goal-line carry share | 14.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.44 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.44 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.84 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 49 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 24 of 49 |
| Target share | 44 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 40 of 49 |
The offense threw it 489 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Romeo Doubs | 18.48% |
| Christian Watson | 11.96% |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 10% |
| Josh Jacobs | 9.57% |
| Tucker Kraft | 9.57% |
| Matthew Golden | 9.57% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 15 | 15 | 5.69 | 5.8 | 3.29% |
| Malik Willis | 1 | 1 | 3.4 | 8 | 4% |
| Clayton Tune | 1 | 1 | 5.8 | 4 | 10% |
2 of his 17 games were blowouts, 31.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.95 in those and 4.5 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 3 against TEN — 16.5 PPR on 14 touches and a 10.5% target share, in a game that finished 30-14. His worst was Week 14 against DET at 0.7, on 1 touches, final score 31-34. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.2; in the 7 decided by more, 7.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 5.3 points per game. He scored 5.65, 5.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 29-34 | 6.8 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 9.4% | 24% |
| 2 | IND | 16-10 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 19% |
| 3 | TEN | 30-14 | 16.5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | 12 | 50 | 1 | 10.5% | 41% |
| 4 | MIN | 29-31 | 2.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 1.9% | 39% |
| 5 | LA | 24-19 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | -9 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 4% | 25% |
| 6 | ARI | 34-13 | 8.3 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 7 | 54 | 0 | 6.5% | 32% |
| 7 | HOU | 24-22 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 21% |
| 8 | JAX | 30-27 | 2.3 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 7.4% | 17% |
| 9 | DET | 14-24 | 9.9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 1 | 2.7% | 20% |
| 11 | CHI | 20-19 | 1.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 7% |
| 12 | SF | 38-10 | 4.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 0 | 0% | 21% |
| 13 | MIA | 30-17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 0% | 7% |
| 14 | DET | 31-34 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 6% |
| 15 | SEA | 30-13 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 9% |
| 16 | NO | 34-0 | 12.6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 52 | 1 | 3.7% | 36% |
| 17 | MIN | 25-27 | 8.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 1 | 0% | 32% |
| 18 | CHI | 22-24 | 14.1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 14 | 73 | 1 | 4% | 42% |
| Receptions | 11 |
| Targets | 14 |
| Receiving yards | 48 |
| Carries | 103 |
| Rushing yards | 502 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 5.65 |
| Yards per target | 3.43 |
| Catch rate | 78.57% |
| Yards per carry | 4.87 |
| Snap share | 23.41% |
| Target share | 2.95% |
| Air-yards share | -1.64% |
| WOPR | 0.033 |
| RACR | -0.308 |
| Average depth of target | -4.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -4.6 |
| Total YAC | 99 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 104.8 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.21 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.54 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 3.9% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 14.1% |
| Goal-line carry share | 15.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.42 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.42 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.76 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 46 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 42 of 46 |
| Target share | 43 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 34 of 46 |
The offense threw it 479 times. 4 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Dontayvion Wicks | 16.41% |
| Jayden Reed | 16.2% |
| Romeo Doubs | 15.55% |
| Tucker Kraft | 15.12% |
| Christian Watson | 11.45% |
| Josh Jacobs | 9.29% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 14 | 11 | 4.61 | 1.36 | 2.54% |
| Malik Willis | 3 | 3 | 10.5 | 11 | 4.83% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 27% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.47 in those and 4.17 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 7 against DEN — 4.7 PPR on 4 touches and a 6.3% target share, in a game that finished 17-19. His worst was Week 2 against ATL at 0.5, on 3 touches, final score 24-25. Across 5 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 5 times.
His usage that season was worth 3.5 points per game. He scored 2.96, 16.3% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | ATL | 24-25 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 10% |
| 3 | NO | 18-17 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2.3% | 10% |
| 7 | DEN | 17-19 | 4.7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 6.3% | 8% |
| 9 | LA | 20-3 | 4.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 0% | 11% |
| 11 | LAC | 23-20 | 3.1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 5.3% | 8% |
| Receptions | 4 |
| Targets | 5 |
| Receiving yards | 23 |
| Carries | 14 |
| Rushing yards | 85 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 2.96 |
| Yards per target | 4.6 |
| Catch rate | 80% |
| Yards per carry | 6.07 |
| Snap share | 9.4% |
| Target share | 2.78% |
| Air-yards share | -0.44% |
| WOPR | 0.038 |
| RACR | 1.872 |
| Average depth of target | -0.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.8 |
| Total YAC | 30 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 85.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.17 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.11 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 5.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.67 |
The offense threw it 581 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Romeo Doubs | 17.11% |
| Jayden Reed | 16.76% |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 10.34% |
| Christian Watson | 9.45% |
| Luke Musgrave | 8.2% |
| Aaron Jones | 7.66% |
1 of his 5 games were blowouts, 29.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.3 in those and 2.63 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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