Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5 points per game in 2025, usage worth 5.6.
23 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
Our board has him at 149.4 points, 9.1 per game — 49.9 catches, 634 yards, 4.3 TDs. That is WR5, 122 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 6.2 points per game to a ceiling of 13.9, with the median at 9.1. Boom rate 53%, bust rate 32%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
Green Bay Packers returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1. Jordan Love at quarterback, Matt LaFleur as head coach, Adam Stenavich calling it. The offense projects to 30.2 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 28.2 rushes.
In: Skyy Moore (wr6), Will Sheppard (wr7), MarShawn Lloyd (rb3), Pierre Strong Jr. (rb4). Out: Romeo Doubs (wr1), Emmanuel Wilson (rb2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 13.9%, with a bear case of 12.9% and a bull case of 15.8% and a full range of 11.9% to 17.4%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Christian Watson | 17.4% |
| Jayden Reed | 17% |
| Matthew Golden ← | 13.9% |
| Tucker Kraft | 13.1% |
| Josh Jacobs | 9.7% |
| Luke Musgrave | 8.3% |
Key additions: Drafted Jager Burton C in the 5th round, extended Jayden Reed on 3 year deal.
Key departures: Rasheed Walker starting O lineman left to Panthers. RB Emmanuel Wilson left, opening up backup and 3rd down back role for another RB to fill the gap. Romeo Doubs to New England Patriots, Wicks to Eagles. Massive opportunity for Watson, Golden, and Reed. We will have to see who plays the most on 2 WR sets.
Notes: Key departures: Romeo Doubs to New England Patriots, Wicks to Eagles. Massive opportunity for Watson, Golden, and Reed. We will have to see who plays the most on 2 WR sets. Reed landed 3 year 50m extension with packers. Golden could be primed for a breakout. Kraft should be recovered from torn ACL early in the season & Musgrave will fill in if he misses time but no true upside to him. Savion Williams will compete for WR4 but it is unlikely he holds any true value. Jordan Love needs to stay healthy but could be primed for a great 2026 season. Josh Jacobs is showing signs for concern with efficiency & managers need to think about him, however, packers have not brought in any competition so in the meantime he should be ok. The departure of Emmanuel Wilson to Seattle should not be underlooked. He was a highly productive back up RB & could open the door for a healthy Josh Jacobs to return to his peak form briefly. AND another RB will assume a very potentially productive handcuff opportunity.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jordan Love returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (28.8 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.2 att/g.
25 historical comps for WRs age ~22, prior share 12.4%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 15.4%, p25-p75 [13.8%, 18.2%], tails [12.4%, 20.6%]. Closest comps: Nico Collins 2021→2022 (HOU: 12.9%→19.2%); Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 2023→2024 (TEN: 12.0%→15.4%); Quentin Johnston 2023→2024 (LAC: 11.1%→20.6%).
self-anchored 30% to own 12.4% role (1yr), 70% to comp median 15.4%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: GB rates 24.6 against a league average of 23, 1.6 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -1.7 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | +5 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -4.9 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +1.1 · neutral |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Matthew Golden study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -28.1% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, WRs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treylon Burks | 2023 | 4.4 | 74% | -37.2% |
| Jameson Williams | 2023 | 6.7 | 65% | +46.7% |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2023 | 4.7 | 64% | +21.6% |
| K.J. Hamler | 2022 | 4.3 | 62% | -18.4% |
| Tyquan Thornton | 2023 | 3 | 62% | -32.3% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 1, pick 23 by GNB |
| College | Texas |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 5′11″ |
| Weight | 191 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.29s |
His best game was Week 6 against CIN — 13.2 PPR on 5 targets and a 19.2% target share, in a game that finished 27-18. His worst was Week 14 against CHI at 0, on 1 targets, final score 28-21. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.5; in the 6 decided by more, 4.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 5.6 points per game. He scored 5, 5.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 27-13 | 3.6 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.1% | 48% |
| 2 | WAS | 27-18 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 7.4% | 59% |
| 3 | CLE | 10-13 | 10.1 | 4 | 4 | 52 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 16% | 71% |
| 4 | DAL | 40-40 | 11.3 | 5 | 6 | 58 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16.7% | 59% |
| 6 | CIN | 27-18 | 13.2 | 3 | 5 | 86 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 19.2% | 69% |
| 7 | ARI | 27-23 | 7.7 | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.3% | 73% |
| 8 | PIT | 35-25 | 3.4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.6% | 66% |
| 9 | CAR | 13-16 | 2.9 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.6% | 37% |
| 11 | NYG | 27-20 | 3.4 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12% | 35% |
| 14 | CHI | 28-21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.3% | 9% |
| 15 | DEN | 26-34 | 8.5 | 3 | 4 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.1% | 35% |
| 16 | CHI | 16-22 | 0.4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4.2% | 31% |
| 17 | BAL | 24-41 | 2.2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12% | 53% |
| 18 | MIN | 3-16 | 1.8 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30% | 100% |
| Receptions | 29 |
| Targets | 44 |
| Receiving yards | 361 |
| Carries | 10 |
| Rushing yards | 49 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 5 |
| Yards per target | 8.2 |
| Catch rate | 65.91% |
| Yards per carry | 4.9 |
| Snap share | 53.21% |
| Target share | 12.39% |
| Air-yards share | 19.41% |
| WOPR | 0.322 |
| RACR | 0.866 |
| Average depth of target | 12.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9 |
| Total YAC | 101 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 81.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.2 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.12 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 2.8% |
| End-zone target share | 4.2% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.3 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.3 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.09 |
The offense threw it 489 times. He took 9.57% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Romeo Doubs | 18.48% |
| Christian Watson | 11.96% |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 10% |
| Josh Jacobs | 9.57% |
| Tucker Kraft | 9.57% |
| Matthew Golden ← | 9.57% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 12 | 38 | 5.5 | 8.97 | 10.96% |
| Malik Willis | 1 | 3 | 2.2 | 4 | 12% |
| Clayton Tune | 1 | 3 | 1.8 | 2.67 | 30% |
1 of his 14 games were blowouts, 3.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.2 in those and 5.54 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Matthew Golden →