RB · ARI · GWTTKB

Tyler Allgeier — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 7.24 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 147.8, usage worth 6.8.

26 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 147.8
Consensus across 4 books, standard deviation 16.2, 39.4 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on espn, priciest on yahoo.
SLEEPER146.2
ESPN169.4
YAHOO130
UNDERDOG149.8
CBS145.6
FFA157

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 13, pick 4 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankRB48
Bye week14
ADP standard deviation16.2 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 88.6 points, 5.5 per game — 444 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs, 10.3 catches. That is RB6, 158 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 1.8 points per game to a ceiling of 11.4, with the median at 5.5. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 66%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 147.8 on consensus and our board has him 158. We rank him 10.2 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Arizona Cardinals returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, rb1, hc, oc. Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, Mike LaFleur as head coach, Nathaniel Hackett calling it. The offense projects to 31.9 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 24.8 rushes.

In: Carson Beck (qb), Carson Beck (qb2), Gardner Minshew II (qb2), Kendrick Bourne (wr3), Devin Duvernay (wr5), Reggie Virgil (wr6), Jeremiyah Love (rb1), Tyler Allgeier (rb2). Out: Kyler Murray (qb), Greg Dortch (wr3), Zay Jones (wr4), Jalen Brooks (wr6), Emari Demercado (rb2), Michael Carter (rb3).

The projected carry split across the offense:

Jeremiyah Love46.7%
Tyler Allgeier 20.5%
James Conner20.1%
Trey Benson12.8%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: The Cardinals have interesting pieces on their offense but the offensive line and lack of a franchise QB is holding them back. IF Arizona can figure out the QB position, player value across the board SHOULD explode (Mcbride already ballin). Jeremiyah Love COULD have a slower start in 2026 but is a candidate to have a top 10 PPR fantasy season 100%.

Key additions: Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame) RB drafted 1st round 3rd overall. drafted guard Chase Bisontis 2nd round (Texas A&M). Drafed Carson Beck QB Miami 3rd round. Drafted WR Reggie Virgil (Texas Tech) 5th round. Signed G Issac Seumalo to 3/$31M (starting O line). Signed Tyler Allgeier ATL RB to 2 year $12.25M deal. Signed Kendrick Bourne 2/$10M deal. Signed QB Gardner Minshew II 1/$8M. Signed Devin Duvernay WR on 1 year (kick returner most likely).

Key departures: Kyler Murray was cut & signed with Minnesota. WR3 Greg Dortch left to Detroit. RB4 Emari Demercado left in free agency.

Notes: Love arrives as 1.03 pick — immediate RB1 candidate. Mike LaFleur hired as new HC (Shanahan & McVay tree). OC is Nathaniel Hackett. Arizona signed Tyler Allgeier from Atlanta, will compete with James Conner for Backup. Expect Trey Benson COULD be traded or compete for backup. Cardinals drafted Carson Beck Round 3 of 2026 draft & MAY compete with Brissett who is looking for a new contract. Brissett likely week 1 starter. Michael Wilson MAY establish himself as a TRUE WR2 in 2026 (Trending in right direction). MHJ WR1 breakout candidate, but has yet to demonstrate consistency. If the O line does not improve, Jeremiyah Love will have a difficult rookie season similar to Ashton Jeanty in Las Vegas. Arizona will need better QB play for any players to have consistent weekly fantasy upside in 2026. It is possible Brissett can continue to support volume for McBride, but one of Michael Wilson or MHJ will have to benefit. Both cannot have high finishes most likely.

How the volume number was reached: New QB Jacoby Brissett, avg 28.8 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.9 att/g; New OC Nathaniel Hackett — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Mike LaFleur.

How the carry projection was built

Projected carry share20.5%
Projected carries per game4.2
Projected carries, full season71
Last season, carries per game8.4

That is a reduction of 4.3 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 24.8 rushing attempts a game.

Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.

Offensive environment: ARI rates 19.1 against a league average of 23, 3.8 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-1.7 · harder
Weeks 1–6-4.5 · harder
Weeks 12–17+9.1 · easier
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)+8.7 · easier

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Read the full Tyler Allgeier study →

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +7.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Gus Edwards20245.863%-43%
Gus Edwards20231158%-8.8%
Raheem Mostert20245.556%-40.5%
Kenneth Gainwell20236.154%+9.7%
Jamaal Williams20219.253%+101.4%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0002023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2022-03 to 2026-07. Up 48% across the series, peaking at 3,683.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2022, round 5, pick 151 by ATL
CollegeBYU
Age at draft22
Height5′11″
Weight224 lb
40-yard dash4.6s
Vertical33″
Broad jump120″

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game8
Week-to-week variation0.7
Boom rate25.5%
Bust rate21.8%
Games missed per season0
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score-0.08

The record, season by season

2025 · ATL · 17 games

His best game was Week 10 against IND — 17.7 PPR on 11 touches and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 25-31. His worst was Week 9 against NE at 0.6, on 2 touches, final score 23-24. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7; in the 7 decided by more, 7.5. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 6.8 points per game. He scored 7.24, 6.5% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1TB20-232.4000102400%25%
2MIN22-615114167614.8%33%
3CAR0-301.41201404.9%9%
4WAS34-2711.1000165110%32%
6BUF24-1410.8116103213.2%31%
7SF10-201.600041600%23%
8MIA10-349.422104416.7%40%
9NE23-240.60002600%30%
10IND25-3117.7000115720%37%
11CAR27-309.622631016.9%21%
12NO24-105.9115124405%39%
13NYJ24-2713.5223582016.5%25%
14SEA9-378.72233113407.1%39%
15TB29-281.800021800%17%
16ARI26-198.311-6167902.9%40%
17LA27-242.3000102300%36%
18NO19-172.912371606.7%37%

Production

Receptions14
Targets16
Receiving yards96
Carries143
Rushing yards514
Touchdowns8
Points per game7.24
Yards per target6
Catch rate87.5%
Yards per carry3.59

Role

Snap share30.24%
Target share3.22%
Air-yards share-0.66%
WOPR0.044
RACR-0.581

Efficiency

Average depth of target-1.8
Yards after catch per reception8.6
Yards before catch per reception-1.7
Total YAC120
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted91.7
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.16
Rushing EPA per game-0.68

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share1.6%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share45.1%
Goal-line carry share43.5%
Expected receiving TDs0.15
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.15
Expected rushing TDs5.75

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game44 of 49
Yards per target20 of 49
Target share46 of 49
Air-yards share25 of 49

Who else ate

The offense threw it 545 times. He took 3.09% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Kyle Pitts22.78%
Drake London21.62%
Bijan Robinson19.88%
Darnell Mooney13.9%
David Sills6.95%
Tyler Allgeier 3.09%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Michael Penix967.82.672.2%
Kirk Cousins8106.684.36%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 15.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.5 in those and 7.02 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · ATL · 17 games

His best game was Week 6 against CAR — 19.8 PPR on 19 touches and a 3.4% target share, in a game that finished 38-20. His worst was Week 11 against DEN at 0.9, on 1 touches, final score 6-38. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.3; in the 5 decided by more, 8.5. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 6.4 points per game. He scored 6.25, 1.8% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1PIT10-182.100032100%18%
2PHI22-217.5111295303.4%21%
3KC17-223.200073200%21%
4NO26-2410222086005.9%38%
5TB36-305.5331361205.6%36%
6CAR38-2019.81131810513.4%41%
7SEA14-345.511953602.8%23%
8TB31-263.3000123300%35%
9DAL27-217.800061810%25%
10NO17-205.9000115900%23%
11DEN6-380.911-10003.4%7%
13LAC13-173.211681602.6%30%
14MIN21-4212.300096310%18%
15LV15-94.3000124300%26%
16NYG34-74.1119112203.8%27%
17WAS24-301.900031900%13%
18CAR38-448.9221795205.4%22%

Production

Receptions13
Targets13
Receiving yards88
Carries137
Rushing yards644
Touchdowns3
Points per game6.25
Yards per target6.77
Catch rate100%
Yards per carry4.7

Role

Snap share24.94%
Target share2.14%
Air-yards share-0.18%
WOPR0.031
RACR-0.747

Efficiency

Average depth of target-0.4
Yards after catch per reception7.2
Yards before catch per reception-0.4
Total YAC93
Broken tackles2
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted94.9
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.2
Rushing EPA per game0.32

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share1.6%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share28.7%
Goal-line carry share25%
Expected receiving TDs0.14
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.14
Expected rushing TDs3.97

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game41 of 46
Yards per target13 of 46
Target share45 of 46
Air-yards share15 of 46

Who else ate

The offense threw it 559 times. He took 2.41% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Drake London29.31%
Darnell Mooney19.67%
Ray-Ray McCloud16.14%
Kyle Pitts13.73%
Bijan Robinson13.36%
Tyler Allgeier 2.41%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Kirk Cousins14106.526.21.94%
Michael Penix334.978.673.07%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 40.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.52 in those and 5.3 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2023 · ATL · 17 games

His best game was Week 1 against CAR — 24.4 PPR on 18 touches and a 16.7% target share, in a game that finished 24-10. His worst was Week 4 against JAX at 2.2, on 9 touches, final score 7-23. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.2; in the 7 decided by more, 10.8. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 8.5 points per game. He scored 8.09, 5% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1CAR24-1024.433191575216.7%56%
2GB25-244.8000164800%44%
3DET6-204.9231771207.9%30%
4JAX7-232.212-471606.7%26%
5HOU21-196010174002.6%44%
6WAS16-245.1010135102.3%28%
7TB16-1314.233532159013%51%
8TEN23-283.100083100%22%
9MIN28-311123-9123918.8%35%
10ARI23-254.811793105.3%27%
12NO24-156.4000106400%29%
13NYJ13-82.600082600%16%
14TB25-29400094000%21%
15CAR7-96.1116144505.3%50%
16IND29-1015.8111996913.1%20%
17CHI17-3715.8117551313.1%19%
18NO17-486.4331062408.8%30%

Production

Receptions18
Targets23
Receiving yards193
Carries186
Rushing yards683
Touchdowns5
Points per game8.09
Yards per target8.39
Catch rate78.26%
Yards per carry3.67

Role

Snap share32.24%
Target share4.92%
Air-yards share-0.27%
WOPR0.071
RACR-0.804

Efficiency

Average depth of target-1
Yards after catch per reception12.1
Yards before catch per reception-1.3
Total YAC217
Broken tackles2
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted116.1
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.25
Rushing EPA per game-1.34

Scoring position

Red-zone targets2
Red-zone target share3.5%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share45%
Goal-line carry share46.2%
Expected receiving TDs0.27
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.27
Expected rushing TDs4.31

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game40 of 49
Yards per target3 of 49
Target share43 of 49
Air-yards share21 of 49

Who else ate

The offense threw it 530 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Drake London21.83%
Kyle Pitts17.86%
Bijan Robinson17.06%
Jonnu Smith13.89%
Mack Hollins5.95%
Van Jefferson5.56%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Desmond Ridder12177.265.945.27%
Taylor Heinicke5610.115.334.06%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 27.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.67 in those and 6.17 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2022 · ATL · 16 games

His best game was Week 15 against NO — 22.6 PPR on 18 touches and a 3.8% target share, in a game that finished 18-21. His worst was Week 2 against LA at 3, on 10 touches, final score 27-31. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.5; in the 4 decided by more, 8.2. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 9.8 points per game. He scored 9.96, 1.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
2LA27-313000103000%31%
3SEA27-23411562505.3%37%
4CLE23-2011.41120108405.6%44%
5TB15-214.5000134500%59%
6SF28-145.1000155100%57%
7CIN17-3511000165010%62%
8CAR37-3417.533461439110.7%60%
9LAC17-2013.31124109904.3%38%
10CAR15-253.333-17820010.3%48%
11CHI27-247.411985505.6%55%
12WAS13-195.4000115400%39%
13PIT16-195.2000105200%52%
15NO18-2122.611-31713913.8%49%
16BAL9-1715.745431874016.1%59%
17ARI20-1916.51112208314%55%
18TB30-1713.50002413500%69%

Production

Receptions16
Targets17
Receiving yards139
Carries210
Rushing yards1,035
Touchdowns4
Points per game9.96
Yards per target8.18
Catch rate94.12%
Yards per carry4.93

Role

Snap share50.88%
Target share4.11%
Air-yards share-0.48%
WOPR0.058
RACR-1.581

Efficiency

Average depth of target-1.6
Yards after catch per reception10.3
Yards before catch per reception-1.6
Total YAC164
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted120.3
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.45
Rushing EPA per game0.71

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share34.8%
Goal-line carry share38.5%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs6.39

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game29 of 42
Yards per target3 of 42
Target share37 of 42
Air-yards share30 of 42

Who else ate

The offense threw it 415 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Drake London29.4%
Olamide Zaccheaus15.33%
Kyle Pitts14.82%
Cordarrelle Patterson7.79%
Damiere Byrd5.78%
MyCole Pruitt5.28%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Marcus Mariota12107.598.73.48%
Desmond Ridder4717.077.435.98%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 16 games were blowouts, 6.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11 in those and 10.54 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

Ask the Coach about Tyler Allgeier →
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