Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 7.71 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 121.7, usage worth 7.5.
30 years old · 8 seasons of experience · 2018 draft class
| SLEEPER | 123.5 |
| ESPN | 123.4 |
| YAHOO | 114 |
| UNDERDOG | 129.7 |
| CBS | 126 |
| FFA | 120 |
| Goes around | Round 11, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE15 |
| Bye week | 13 |
| ADP standard deviation | 5.3 picks |
Our board has him at 133.8 points, 8.8 per game — 49.1 catches, 476 yards, 6 TDs. That is TE4, 120 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 4.2 points per game to a ceiling of 13.7, with the median at 8.8. Boom rate 55%, bust rate 52%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 121.7 on consensus and our board has him 120. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
Late double-dip TE shot — ADP very low; expect a small rise. Take one stable late TE + one upside shot rather than a mid-round TE.
like · low conviction · 2026-06-05Baltimore Ravens returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Lamar Jackson at quarterback, Jesse Minter as head coach, Declan Doyle calling it. The offense projects to 30 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 28.1 rushes.
In: Ja'Kobi Lane (wr4), Elijah Sarratt (wr5), Cornelius Johnson (wr7), Adam Randall (rb3), Ali Rasheen (rb4), Durham Smythe (te2). Out: Devin Duvernay (wr3), Tylan Wallace (wr5), Keaton Mitchell (rb3), Rasheen Ali (rb4), Isaiah Likely (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 14.5%, with a bear case of 13.8% and a bull case of 16.1% and a full range of 12.7% to 16.7%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Zay Flowers | 24% |
| Mark Andrews ← | 14.5% |
| Rashod Bateman | 11.1% |
| Justice Hill | 8.7% |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | 8.4% |
| Elijah Sarratt | 7.3% |
What the offense looks like: Derrick Henry is aging, but until proven otherwise, will continue to be the Ravens workhorse back. Zay Flowers had his 5th year option picked up & his long term future in Baltimore MAY hinge on his 2026 season. he has shown flashes of being a true WR1, and Baltimore hasn't brought in direct competition with him, but imagine if he doesn't establish himself this year that Ravens will address WR more adequately. Rookie WRS Lane & Sarratt. have a large opportunity to take a substantial role in this offense. Bateman and Walker by no means are locked in as WR2 and WR3.
Key additions: G John Simpson (3/$30M), TE Durham Smythe (depth), QB Tyler Huntley (Back up to Lamar), WR Ja'Kobi Lane (3rd round from USC), WR Elijah Sarratt (4th Round Indiana), TE Matthew Hibner TE (5th round SMU)
Key departures: Biggest departure is HC John Harbaugh being fired at the end of the 2025 season. C Tyler Linderbaum left to Raiders. Isaiah Likely (TE) signed 3 year deal with NY. Lost RB Keaton Mitchell to the Chargers.
Notes: Lamar expected to completely bounce back. Derrick Henry is the unicorn who never ages apparently (fall off coming but production still here as of now). Ravens draft Adam Randall RB in 5th round. Justice Hill will still operate as 3rd down back. Henry main back. Isaiah Likely left to Giants in free agency. Andrews signs extension. Durham Smythe TE & Matthew Hibner TE also drafted. Andrews should be TE1 but unsure what production will look like. Ravens picked up Flowers franchise tag and he is under contract through 2027. Lane could be a rookie breakout, opportunity is 100% there.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Lamar Jackson returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (24.8 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30 att/g; New OC Declan Doyle — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jesse Minter.
25 historical comps for TEs age ~29, prior share 17.1%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 16.1%, p25-p75 [13.2%, 19.3%], tails [10.2%, 20.9%]. Closest comps: Eric Ebron 2020→2021 (PIT: 17.0%→5.7%); Hunter Henry 2024→2025 (NE: 17.3%→16.6%); Hunter Henry 2021→2022 (NE: 16.6%→12.4%). Adjustment: -6% from role_decline (real opportunity collapse)
self-anchored 58% to own 17.1% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 16.1%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: BAL rates 25.7 against a league average of 23, 2.7 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +4.7 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.3 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.9 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Mark Andrews study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +3.9% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 2024 | 9.1 | 51% | +31.4% |
| Jonnu Smith | 2024 | 13.1 | 48% | -38.9% |
| Zach Ertz | 2024 | 10.4 | 44% | -41.3% |
| David Njoku | 2024 | 13.5 | 43% | -21.9% |
| Dallas Goedert | 2023 | 9.7 | 42% | -8.7% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2018, round 3, pick 86 by BAL |
| College | Oklahoma |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′5″ |
| Weight | 256 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.67s |
| Vertical | 31″ |
| Broad jump | 113″ |
| 3-cone | 7.34s |
| Shuttle | 4.38s |
| Career PPR per game | 12.5 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 19.4% |
| Bust rate | 25% |
| Games missed per season | 0.3 |
| Injury history | Knee, Ankle |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.21 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 3 against DET — 27.1 PPR on 6 targets and a 21.4% target share, in a game that finished 30-38. His worst was Week 2 against CLE at 1.4, on 3 targets, final score 41-17. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.2; in the 10 decided by more, 6.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7.5 points per game. He scored 7.71, 3.1% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 5.01 expected, a gap of -1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 40-41 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.3% | 75% |
| 2 | CLE | 41-17 | 1.4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10.7% | 80% |
| 3 | DET | 30-38 | 27.1 | 6 | 6 | 91 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21.4% | 81% |
| 4 | KC | 20-37 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26.7% | 55% |
| 5 | HOU | 10-44 | 4.2 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15% | 58% |
| 6 | LA | 3-17 | 6.6 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 18.8% | 78% |
| 8 | CHI | 30-16 | 6.4 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.6% | 60% |
| 9 | MIA | 28-6 | 16.6 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13% | 50% |
| 10 | MIN | 27-19 | 10.4 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17.9% | 63% |
| 11 | CLE | 23-16 | 15.7 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 1 | 35 | 1 | 20% | 61% |
| 12 | NYJ | 23-10 | 2.1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 15% | 67% |
| 13 | CIN | 14-32 | 8.7 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20% | 68% |
| 14 | PIT | 22-27 | 1.9 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15.2% | 68% |
| 15 | CIN | 24-0 | 3.8 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25% | 41% |
| 16 | NE | 24-28 | 4.4 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15% | 44% |
| 17 | GB | 41-24 | 6.8 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20% | 41% |
| 18 | PIT | 24-26 | 3.4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.6% | 59% |
| Receptions | 48 |
| Targets | 70 |
| Receiving yards | 422 |
| Carries | 10 |
| Rushing yards | 48 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 7.71 |
| Yards per target | 6.03 |
| Catch rate | 68.57% |
| Yards per carry | 4.8 |
| Snap share | 61.71% |
| Target share | 17.07% |
| Air-yards share | 16.35% |
| WOPR | 0.371 |
| RACR | 0.816 |
| Average depth of target | 7.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.7 |
| Total YAC | 101 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 90.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.09 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.38 |
| Red-zone targets | 15 |
| Red-zone target share | 27.8% |
| End-zone target share | 35.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 9.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.01 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.01 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.18 |
The offense threw it 422 times. He took 17.2% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Zay Flowers | 28.99% |
| Mark Andrews ← | 17.2% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9.58% |
| Rashod Bateman | 9.34% |
| Isaiah Likely | 8.85% |
| Justice Hill | 6.63% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 13 | 54 | 8.23 | 5.81 | 17.14% |
| Cooper Rush | 2 | 9 | 5.4 | 5.11 | 16.9% |
| Tyler Huntley | 2 | 7 | 6.6 | 8.86 | 16.8% |
7 of his 17 games were blowouts, 39.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.36 in those and 9.2 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 7 against TB — 20.1 PPR on 4 targets and a 19% target share, in a game that finished 41-31. His worst was Week 4 against BUF at 0, on 1 targets, final score 35-10. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11; in the 7 decided by more, 11.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 7.4 points per game. He scored 11.11, 45.5% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 11 against 3.64 expected, a gap of 7.4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 20-27 | 3.4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 5% | 74% |
| 2 | LV | 23-26 | 9.1 | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 16.1% | 63% |
| 3 | DAL | 28-25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.7% | 33% |
| 4 | BUF | 35-10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.6% | 46% |
| 5 | CIN | 41-38 | 9.5 | 4 | 5 | 55 | 0 | 12.2% | 55% |
| 6 | WAS | 30-23 | 15.6 | 3 | 4 | 66 | 1 | 16% | 50% |
| 7 | TB | 41-31 | 20.1 | 4 | 4 | 41 | 2 | 19% | 54% |
| 8 | CLE | 24-29 | 14.6 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 1 | 14.3% | 74% |
| 9 | DEN | 41-10 | 4.6 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 10.5% | 49% |
| 10 | CIN | 35-34 | 18.8 | 6 | 7 | 68 | 1 | 21.9% | 87% |
| 11 | PIT | 16-18 | 4.2 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 9.7% | 61% |
| 12 | LAC | 30-23 | 15.6 | 5 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 23.8% | 42% |
| 13 | PHI | 19-24 | 18.9 | 6 | 7 | 67 | 1 | 20% | 74% |
| 15 | NYG | 35-14 | 10.4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 8.3% | 66% |
| 16 | PIT | 34-17 | 13.8 | 4 | 6 | 37 | 1 | 26.1% | 76% |
| 17 | HOU | 31-2 | 14.8 | 2 | 2 | 68 | 1 | 12.5% | 56% |
| 18 | CLE | 35-10 | 15.4 | 4 | 8 | 54 | 1 | 26.7% | 79% |
| Receptions | 55 |
| Targets | 69 |
| Receiving yards | 673 |
| Carries | 4 |
| Rushing yards | 5 |
| Touchdowns | 11 |
| Points per game | 11.11 |
| Yards per target | 9.75 |
| Catch rate | 79.71% |
| Yards per carry | 1.25 |
| Snap share | 61.12% |
| Target share | 14.96% |
| Air-yards share | 17.64% |
| WOPR | 0.347 |
| RACR | 1.058 |
| Average depth of target | 10.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.8 |
| Total YAC | 188 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 140.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.95 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.2 |
| Red-zone targets | 16 |
| Red-zone target share | 23.5% |
| End-zone target share | 28.6% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.64 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 11 |
| Receiving TD luck | 7.36 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.18 |
The offense threw it 477 times. He took 15.1% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Zay Flowers | 25.38% |
| Rashod Bateman | 15.75% |
| Mark Andrews ← | 15.1% |
| Isaiah Likely | 12.69% |
| Justice Hill | 11.16% |
| Nelson Agholor | 6.35% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 31.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.83 in those and 10.97 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 4 against CLE — 25 PPR on 5 targets and a 27.8% target share, in a game that finished 28-3. His worst was Week 11 against CIN at 4.3, on 2 targets, final score 34-20. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.1; in the 4 decided by more, 17.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 9.9 points per game. He scored 13.54, 27.4% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 3.85 expected, a gap of 2.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CIN | 27-24 | 15.5 | 5 | 8 | 45 | 1 | 24.2% | 79% |
| 3 | IND | 19-22 | 7.5 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 16.7% | 82% |
| 4 | CLE | 28-3 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 80 | 2 | 27.8% | 69% |
| 5 | PIT | 10-17 | 12.5 | 6 | 10 | 65 | 0 | 26.3% | 94% |
| 6 | TEN | 24-16 | 10.9 | 4 | 6 | 69 | 0 | 20.7% | 85% |
| 7 | DET | 38-6 | 22.3 | 4 | 6 | 63 | 2 | 21.4% | 73% |
| 8 | ARI | 31-24 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 40 | 1 | 19.2% | 75% |
| 9 | SEA | 37-3 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 80 | 0 | 31.3% | 58% |
| 10 | CLE | 31-33 | 6.4 | 2 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 17.4% | 72% |
| 11 | CIN | 34-20 | 4.3 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 8.7% | 11% |
| Receptions | 45 |
| Targets | 61 |
| Receiving yards | 544 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 13.54 |
| Yards per target | 8.92 |
| Catch rate | 73.77% |
| Snap share | 69.8% |
| Target share | 21.37% |
| Air-yards share | 19.09% |
| WOPR | 0.453 |
| RACR | 1.356 |
| Average depth of target | 7.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.3 |
| Total YAC | 216 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 133.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.32 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.16 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 19.4% |
| End-zone target share | 20% |
| Red-zone carry share | 0.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.85 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.15 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
The offense threw it 494 times. He took 12.82% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Zay Flowers | 22.69% |
| Odell Beckham | 13.45% |
| Mark Andrews ← | 12.82% |
| Rashod Bateman | 11.76% |
| Nelson Agholor | 9.45% |
| Isaiah Likely | 8.4% |
3 of his 10 games were blowouts, 47.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 21.43 in those and 11.13 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 3 against NE — 28.9 PPR on 13 targets and a 48.1% target share, in a game that finished 37-26. His worst was Week 7 against CLE at 0.4, on 2 targets, final score 23-20. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.1; in the 4 decided by more, 14.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 13.5 points per game. He scored 12.7, 5.8% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 24-9 | 10.2 | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 | 24.1% | 84% |
| 2 | MIA | 38-42 | 25.7 | 9 | 11 | 104 | 1 | 37.9% | 83% |
| 3 | NE | 37-26 | 28.9 | 8 | 13 | 89 | 2 | 48.1% | 90% |
| 4 | BUF | 20-23 | 3.5 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 17.9% | 94% |
| 5 | CIN | 19-17 | 22.9 | 8 | 10 | 89 | 1 | 37% | 95% |
| 6 | NYG | 20-24 | 23.6 | 7 | 11 | 106 | 1 | 34.4% | 92% |
| 7 | CLE | 23-20 | 0.4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12.5% | 88% |
| 8 | TB | 27-22 | 6.3 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 14.7% | 13% |
| 11 | CAR | 13-3 | 12.3 | 6 | 8 | 63 | 0 | 25% | 93% |
| 12 | JAX | 27-28 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 50 | 0 | 23.3% | 85% |
| 13 | DEN | 10-9 | 9.4 | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 | 19.4% | 85% |
| 14 | PIT | 16-14 | 3.7 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 35.3% | 89% |
| 15 | CLE | 3-13 | 6.1 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 25% | 92% |
| 16 | ATL | 17-9 | 7.5 | 3 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 31.3% | 81% |
| 17 | PIT | 13-16 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 100 | 0 | 45% | 94% |
| Receptions | 73 |
| Targets | 113 |
| Receiving yards | 847 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 8 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 12.7 |
| Yards per target | 7.5 |
| Catch rate | 64.6% |
| Yards per carry | 2.67 |
| Snap share | 83.87% |
| Target share | 28.73% |
| Air-yards share | 31.55% |
| WOPR | 0.653 |
| RACR | 0.768 |
| Average depth of target | 9.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.3 |
| Total YAC | 243 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 90.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.68 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.26 |
| Red-zone targets | 20 |
| Red-zone target share | 25.3% |
| End-zone target share | 25% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.68 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.32 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 4 of 11 |
| Yards per target | 5 of 11 |
| Target share | 1 of 11 |
| Air-yards share | 1 of 11 |
The offense threw it 488 times. He took 24.3% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Mark Andrews ← | 24.3% |
| Demarcus Robinson | 16.13% |
| Isaiah Likely | 12.9% |
| Devin Duvernay | 10.54% |
| Rashod Bateman | 6.02% |
| Kenyan Drake | 5.59% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 10 | 79 | 14.48 | 7.61 | 27.49% |
| Tyler Huntley | 5 | 34 | 9.14 | 7.24 | 31.2% |
His best game was Week 5 against IND — 41.7 PPR on 13 targets and a 30.2% target share, in a game that finished 31-25. His worst was Week 1 against LV at 5, on 5 targets, final score 27-33. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.3; in the 5 decided by more, 16.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 15.7 points per game. He scored 17.71, 12.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 9 against 5.27 expected, a gap of 3.7.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 27-33 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 17.2% | 81% |
| 2 | KC | 36-35 | 10.7 | 5 | 5 | 57 | 0 | 20% | 75% |
| 3 | DET | 19-17 | 15.9 | 5 | 7 | 109 | 0 | 25.9% | 79% |
| 4 | DEN | 23-7 | 11.7 | 5 | 8 | 67 | 0 | 22.9% | 63% |
| 5 | IND | 31-25 | 41.7 | 11 | 13 | 147 | 2 | 30.2% | 77% |
| 6 | LAC | 34-6 | 17.8 | 5 | 6 | 68 | 1 | 22.2% | 54% |
| 7 | CIN | 17-41 | 7.8 | 3 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 17.1% | 68% |
| 9 | MIN | 34-31 | 9.4 | 5 | 10 | 44 | 0 | 24.4% | 79% |
| 10 | MIA | 10-22 | 18.3 | 6 | 8 | 63 | 1 | 19.5% | 78% |
| 11 | CHI | 16-13 | 15.3 | 8 | 10 | 73 | 0 | 27.8% | 72% |
| 12 | CLE | 16-10 | 16.5 | 4 | 10 | 65 | 1 | 31.3% | 68% |
| 13 | PIT | 19-20 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 50 | 0 | 24.3% | 68% |
| 14 | CLE | 22-24 | 28.5 | 11 | 11 | 115 | 1 | 27.5% | 88% |
| 15 | GB | 30-31 | 35.6 | 10 | 13 | 136 | 2 | 33.3% | 80% |
| 16 | CIN | 21-41 | 26.5 | 8 | 10 | 125 | 1 | 27% | 80% |
| 17 | LA | 19-20 | 14.9 | 6 | 6 | 89 | 0 | 20.7% | 82% |
| 18 | PIT | 13-16 | 16.5 | 8 | 15 | 85 | 0 | 46.9% | 93% |
| Receptions | 107 |
| Targets | 153 |
| Receiving yards | 1,361 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 17.71 |
| Yards per target | 8.9 |
| Catch rate | 69.93% |
| Snap share | 75.59% |
| Target share | 25.78% |
| Air-yards share | 32.29% |
| WOPR | 0.612 |
| RACR | 0.976 |
| Average depth of target | 10.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.4 |
| Total YAC | 458 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 92.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.3 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.06 |
| Red-zone targets | 22 |
| Red-zone target share | 27.5% |
| End-zone target share | 40% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.27 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 9 |
| Receiving TD luck | 3.73 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 1 of 15 |
| Yards per target | 4 of 15 |
| Target share | 1 of 15 |
| Air-yards share | 1 of 15 |
The offense threw it 610 times. He took 25.89% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Mark Andrews ← | 25.89% |
| Marquise Brown | 24.7% |
| Rashod Bateman | 11.51% |
| Sammy Watkins | 8.29% |
| Devin Duvernay | 7.95% |
| Devonta Freeman | 7.11% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 11 | 88 | 14.89 | 8.39 | 23.18% |
| Tyler Huntley | 5 | 55 | 22.16 | 9.05 | 31.24% |
| Josh Johnson | 1 | 10 | 26.5 | 12.5 | 27% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 17.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.37 in those and 18.25 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 1 against CLE — 22.8 PPR on 6 targets and a 24% target share, in a game that finished 38-6. His worst was Week 2 against HOU at 3.9, on 3 targets, final score 33-16. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.4; in the 9 decided by more, 12.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 11.6 points per game. He scored 12.15, 0.4% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 5.93 expected, a gap of -1.9.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 38-6 | 22.8 | 5 | 6 | 58 | 2 | 24% | 71% |
| 2 | HOU | 33-16 | 3.9 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 13% | 58% |
| 3 | KC | 20-34 | 5.2 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 29.6% | 79% |
| 4 | WAS | 31-17 | 20.7 | 3 | 3 | 57 | 2 | 13% | 65% |
| 5 | CIN | 27-3 | 17.6 | 6 | 9 | 56 | 1 | 25% | 68% |
| 6 | PHI | 30-28 | 4.1 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 16% | 51% |
| 8 | PIT | 24-28 | 6.2 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 23.1% | 62% |
| 9 | IND | 24-10 | 5.2 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 21.7% | 59% |
| 10 | NE | 17-23 | 13.1 | 7 | 9 | 61 | 0 | 26.5% | 76% |
| 11 | TEN | 24-30 | 20.6 | 5 | 7 | 96 | 1 | 25% | 86% |
| 14 | CLE | 47-42 | 12.8 | 5 | 6 | 78 | 0 | 31.6% | 67% |
| 15 | JAX | 40-14 | 17.6 | 5 | 5 | 66 | 1 | 19.2% | 52% |
| 16 | NYG | 27-13 | 13.6 | 6 | 10 | 76 | 0 | 43.5% | 66% |
| 17 | CIN | 38-3 | 6.7 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 36.8% | 57% |
| Receptions | 58 |
| Targets | 88 |
| Receiving yards | 701 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 12.15 |
| Yards per target | 7.97 |
| Catch rate | 65.91% |
| Snap share | 65.5% |
| Target share | 24.86% |
| Air-yards share | 27.19% |
| WOPR | 0.564 |
| RACR | 0.864 |
| Average depth of target | 10.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.9 |
| Total YAC | 182 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 112 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.62 |
| Red-zone targets | 22 |
| Red-zone target share | 31.9% |
| End-zone target share | 41.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.93 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.93 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 3 of 12 |
| Yards per target | 4 of 12 |
| Target share | 2 of 12 |
| Air-yards share | 1 of 12 |
The offense threw it 405 times. He took 22.45% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Marquise Brown | 25.51% |
| Mark Andrews ← | 22.45% |
| Willie Snead | 12.24% |
| Miles Boykin | 8.42% |
| Devin Duvernay | 6.63% |
| J.K. Dobbins | 6.12% |
5 of his 14 games were blowouts, 40.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.72 in those and 11.36 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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