Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 12.17 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 68.1, usage worth 12.4.
24 years old · 2 seasons of experience · 2024 draft class
| SLEEPER | 65.6 |
| ESPN | 72.3 |
| YAHOO | 69 |
| UNDERDOG | 58.4 |
| CBS | 65.7 |
| FFA | 67 |
| Goes around | Round 6, pick 8 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR27 |
| Bye week | 10 |
| ADP standard deviation | 3.2 picks |
Our board has him at 185.6 points, 11.3 per game — 60.1 catches, 853 yards, 6.7 TDs. That is WR4, 67 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 8.3 points per game to a ceiling of 17.3, with the median at 11.3. Boom rate 53%, bust rate 27%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 68.1 on consensus and our board has him 67. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
One of the Bears trio worth owning; ~5/6 turn. Ben Johnson scheme insulates pass-catchers from the tough schedule more than the RBs.
like · medium conviction · 2026-06-05Chicago Bears returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Caleb Williams at quarterback, Ben Johnson as head coach, Press Taylor calling it. The offense projects to 33.6 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 28.4 rushes.
In: Kalif Raymond (wr3), Zavion Thomas (wr5), JP Richardson (wr6), Alexander Maurice (wr7), Sam Roush (te2). Out: DJ Moore (wr2), Luther Burden (wr3), Olamide Zaccheaus (wr4), Travis Homer (rb3), Cole Kmet (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 18.5%, with a bear case of 15.9% and a bull case of 20.5% and a full range of 14.3% to 22%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Rome Odunze ← | 18.5% |
| Colston Loveland | 16.8% |
| Luther Burden III | 10.8% |
| D'Andre Swift | 9.4% |
| Zavion Thomas | 8.9% |
| Sam Roush | 7.9% |
What the offense looks like: Whoever emerges as Caleb Williams primary target will be an ELITE fantasy asset to own. We still do not know with 100% certainy who that will be. You may think it would be Rome Odunze, but Luther Burden III has shown a TON of promise. There is room for both of these young WR to eat, but Colston Loveland may be the real beneficiary of the additional targets. he looks like a true star. RB room is likely a 1A/1B for the foreseable future. Both Swift and Monangai see their value skyrocket if the other gets hurt.
Key additions: Bears added WR Kalif Raymond from Lions (expected to operate as WR3 because Ben Johnson loves him). Drafted Rookie WR Zavion Thomas 3rd round. Drafted TE Sam Roush RD 3.
Key departures: Biggest 2 losses C Drew Dalman retired unexpectedly & LT Ozzy Trapilo suffered serious knee injury sidelining him the entire 2026 season. WR DJ Moore traded to Bills for a 2nd round pick. WR Olamide Zaccheaus also left Chicago this offseason. Opening up a massive target opportunity for Bears pass catchers.
Notes: Strong disagreement who the WR1 will be in 2026. Odunze looked fantastic early in 2025, but Burden stole the show in the back half of the season. Loveland has emerged as Williams favorite target. Caleb Williams is set to have an excellent season again. RB room looks to remain the same with Swift 1A & Monangai 1B. Bears drafted TE Sam Roush in the 3rd round. Cole Kmet may be traded. Highly relevant fantasty offense.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Caleb Williams returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.7 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.6 att/g; New OC Press Taylor — pass rate and tempo may shift.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~23, prior share 21.0%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 18.3%, p25-p75 [13.4%, 22.2%], tails [10.3%, 25.1%]. Closest comps: Darius Slayton 2020→2021 (NYG: 20.5%→13.1%); D.J. Chark 2020→2021 (JAX: 20.4%→18.3%); Brandon Aiyuk 2020→2021 (SF: 21.9%→18.3%). Adjustment: flat from opportunity_breakout (volume must hold)
self-anchored 45% to own 21.0% role (2yr), 55% to comp median 18.3%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: CHI rates 24.9 against a league average of 23, 1.9 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -3.3 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -8 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.4 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -4.5 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3 | Luther Burden III | +13.3 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +3.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 2020 | 11.4 | 79% | +18.3% |
| DeVonta Smith | 2021 | 10.9 | 78% | +13.4% |
| Chris Olave | 2023 | 14.5 | 76% | -6.7% |
| Marvin Harrison | 2024 | 11.6 | 73% | -7.6% |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2021 | 10 | 70% | +6.6% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2024, round 1, pick 9 by CHI |
| College | Washington |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′3″ |
| Weight | 212 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.45s |
| Vertical | 39″ |
| Broad jump | 124″ |
| 3-cone | 6.88s |
| Shuttle | 4.03s |
| Career PPR per game | 8.6 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.7 |
| Boom rate | 13% |
| Bust rate | 34.8% |
| Games missed per season | 1.5 |
| Injury history | Foot |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.08 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 2 against DET — 31.8 PPR on 11 targets and a 33.3% target share, in a game that finished 21-52. His worst was Week 9 against CIN at 0, on 3 targets, final score 47-42. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.4; in the 5 decided by more, 14.7. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 12.4 points per game. He scored 12.17, 8.8% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 24-27 | 15.7 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 1 | 26.5% | 94% |
| 2 | DET | 21-52 | 31.8 | 7 | 11 | 128 | 2 | 33.3% | 100% |
| 3 | DAL | 31-14 | 15.2 | 3 | 7 | 62 | 1 | 25% | 90% |
| 4 | LV | 25-24 | 16.9 | 4 | 8 | 69 | 1 | 22.2% | 76% |
| 6 | WAS | 25-24 | 5.2 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 17.2% | 97% |
| 7 | NO | 26-14 | 5.1 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 0 | 24% | 94% |
| 8 | BAL | 16-30 | 18.4 | 7 | 10 | 114 | 0 | 28.6% | 94% |
| 9 | CIN | 47-42 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8.8% | 100% |
| 10 | NYG | 24-20 | 20.6 | 6 | 10 | 86 | 1 | 27.8% | 78% |
| 11 | MIN | 19-17 | 6.1 | 2 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 21.4% | 76% |
| 12 | PIT | 31-28 | 8.3 | 3 | 9 | 53 | 0 | 30% | 78% |
| 13 | PHI | 24-15 | 2.8 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 18.8% | 80% |
| Receptions | 44 |
| Targets | 90 |
| Receiving yards | 661 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 12.17 |
| Yards per target | 7.34 |
| Catch rate | 48.89% |
| Snap share | 88.08% |
| Target share | 23.63% |
| Air-yards share | 35.32% |
| WOPR | 0.603 |
| RACR | 0.481 |
| Average depth of target | 13.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.2 |
| Total YAC | 214 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 81.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.74 |
| Red-zone targets | 13 |
| Red-zone target share | 16.3% |
| End-zone target share | 28.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.5 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.5 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 23 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 34 of 44 |
| Target share | 17 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 16 of 44 |
The offense threw it 574 times. He took 16.98% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Rome Odunze ← | 16.98% |
| D.J. Moore | 16.04% |
| Colston Loveland | 15.47% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 12.26% |
| Luther Burden III | 11.32% |
| D'Andre Swift | 9.06% |
2 of his 12 games were blowouts, 32.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 23.5 in those and 10.4 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 3 against IND — 23.4 PPR on 11 targets and a 22.9% target share, in a game that finished 16-21. His worst was Week 4 against LA at 2, on 3 targets, final score 24-18. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.3; in the 7 decided by more, 10.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 10.5 points per game. He scored 8.52, 19.1% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 24-17 | 2.1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 13.8% | 77% |
| 2 | HOU | 13-19 | 5.3 | 2 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 14.7% | 94% |
| 3 | IND | 16-21 | 23.4 | 6 | 11 | 112 | 1 | 22.9% | 99% |
| 4 | LA | 24-18 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 13.6% | 78% |
| 5 | CAR | 36-10 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 21.4% | 80% |
| 6 | JAX | 35-16 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 | 7.7% | 80% |
| 8 | WAS | 15-18 | 8.4 | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 28.6% | 75% |
| 9 | ARI | 9-29 | 15.4 | 5 | 7 | 104 | 0 | 19.4% | 88% |
| 10 | NE | 3-19 | 5.3 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 23.1% | 68% |
| 11 | GB | 19-20 | 12.5 | 6 | 10 | 65 | 0 | 32.3% | 82% |
| 12 | MIN | 27-30 | 8.9 | 5 | 10 | 39 | 0 | 21.3% | 87% |
| 13 | DET | 20-23 | 4.5 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 16.7% | 78% |
| 14 | SF | 13-38 | 20.2 | 4 | 5 | 42 | 2 | 20.8% | 92% |
| 15 | MIN | 12-30 | 5.9 | 2 | 7 | 39 | 0 | 22.6% | 79% |
| 16 | DET | 17-34 | 9.7 | 4 | 7 | 77 | 0 | 18.9% | 83% |
| 17 | SEA | 3-6 | 2.5 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 15.4% | 92% |
| 18 | GB | 24-22 | 3.8 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 8.3% | 89% |
| Receptions | 54 |
| Targets | 101 |
| Receiving yards | 734 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 15 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 8.52 |
| Yards per target | 7.27 |
| Catch rate | 53.47% |
| Yards per carry | 5 |
| Snap share | 83.59% |
| Target share | 18.91% |
| Air-yards share | 29.98% |
| WOPR | 0.494 |
| RACR | 0.645 |
| Average depth of target | 13.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.9 |
| Total YAC | 253 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 82.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.94 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.03 |
| Red-zone targets | 17 |
| Red-zone target share | 25% |
| End-zone target share | 39.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.59 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.59 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 47 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 39 of 51 |
| Target share | 40 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 27 of 51 |
The offense threw it 566 times. He took 19.2% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| D.J. Moore | 26.62% |
| Keenan Allen | 23% |
| Rome Odunze ← | 19.2% |
| Cole Kmet | 10.46% |
| D'Andre Swift | 9.89% |
| Roschon Johnson | 3.8% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 45.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.03 in those and 7.34 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Rome Odunze →