17 findings, each one a question people actually ask, answered with a measured number and the sample it came from. Where the result contradicts the common view, the common view is stated first so you can check both. Free to read, no account, no paywall.
RYOE is the most-cited advanced rushing metric in fantasy. Measured against what a back scores next, its correlation is 0.000.
Every stat field in the database tested against next-period scoring, five seasons, with the replication flag on each. Target share carries. Yards per target runs negative.
Last season’s receiving touchdown total is a negative forward predictor at −0.128. Red-zone target share is the single strongest ceiling factor for receivers at +0.187.
Across 17,000+ scored player-stretches, the ceiling factors and the floor factors are the same list. At QB the relationship reverses.
Across 7,141 player-weeks, consensus closing lines predicted weekly fantasy scoring at 4.96 MAE against 5.54 for the player’s own trailing average.
Across 24,924 player-weeks, five defensive aspects were tested leakage-free. Only points allowed to the position works — and at receiver it is worth under half a point.
Tested as a player trait across 365 players at four positions. A first-half man-versus-zone split does not predict the second half anywhere — and at quarterback it inverts at −0.416.
Two claims wear the same jersey and only one survives. Preseason schedule strength fails; being favoured moves real production.
It concentrates on one player — but how hard depends entirely on position. 82% at running back, 96% at tight end, 63% at receiver.
Across 16,532 player-games, the correlation between a production spike and pre-game value movement is approximately zero. The repricing happens after.
272 stat fields tested across four positions. 41 replicated. This is the record of the other 231, including our own discarded ideas.
When a player spikes, the market posts a fresh number on him within days. The ratio of that number to his new level is the tell.
Six years of daily dynasty values. The median gap between a quarterback’s superflex price and his 1QB price has fallen from roughly 2,529 to 673 — and the decline is close to monotonic.
Each pick measured against its own annual median, month by month. The calendar swing is worth several percent, in the same direction, every year.
Measured against a control group. In no-vacancy weeks the same players sit at roughly zero, which is what makes the effect real rather than noise.
Return curves by injury type across the first three games back. Hamstrings over-recover. Knees stay negative the whole way.
An absence does not only move usage between two players. It moves the team’s play mix — and in opposite directions depending on who is out.