WR · NYJ · GWTTKB

Garrett Wilson — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 14.21 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 43.8, usage worth 14.4.

26 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 43.8
Consensus across 4 books, standard deviation 5.4, 12.2 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on yahoo, priciest on espn.
SLEEPER43.3
ESPN36.3
YAHOO48.5
UNDERDOG39.8
CBS46.9
FFA43

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 4, pick 8 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankWR19
Bye week13
ADP standard deviation5.4 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 222.3 points, 13.6 per game — 87.8 catches, 979 yards, 6.1 TDs. That is WR3, 43 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 8.6 points per game to a ceiling of 22.4, with the median at 13.6. Boom rate 64%, bust rate 36%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 43.8 on consensus and our board has him 43. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.

Our written view

147+ targets in each of his first 3 seasons, dominant across the route tree by underlying metrics; the ceiling has always been QB play (his one truly great statistical year came with prime Aaron Rodgers, next to a genuinely elite WR1). This year brings his best QB since that Rodgers year plus better weapons — but the team's own market-implied scoring total is still tied for worst in the league, which tempers how much better it can realistically get.

buy · medium conviction · 2026-08

The offense he plays in, 2026

New York Jets returns 3 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, te1, oc. Geno Smith at quarterback, Aaron Glenn as head coach, Frank Reich calling it. The offense projects to 32.8 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 26.6 rushes.

In: Geno Smith (qb), Cade Klubnik (qb2), Omar Cooper Jr (wr2), Irvin Charles (wr5), Mac Dalena (wr7), Kenyon Sadiq (te1). Out: Justin Fields (qb), John Metchie III (wr3), Tyler Johnson (wr4), Jeremy Ruckert (te2).

His own projected target share for 2026 is 22.9%, with a bear case of 22.2% and a bull case of 24.5% and a full range of 20.3% to 25.8%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.

The projected target split across the offense:

Garrett Wilson 22.9%
Omar Cooper Jr16.3%
Kenyon Sadiq14%
Breece Hall10.8%
Adonai Mitchell10.1%
Mason Taylor9.3%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: This is a tough offense for fantasy managers to be heavily invested in. An even worse spot for a rookie to be drafted to. Kenyon Sadiq has to be upset. Not only that, but he has to share the TE room with Mason Taylor, who was looking like he could become a top 15 TE. For Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, realistically for a MASSIVE value spike, they both need to be traded. It will be tough to produce in NY.

Key additions: QB Geno Smith traded to Jets from Raiders. QB Cade Klubnik drafted 5th round, Kenyon Sadiq drafted 1st round 16th overall. WR Omar Cooper Jr. drafted 1st round 30th overall

Key departures: Justin Fields QB traded to Chiefs.

Notes: Fields traded. Jets bring in Geno Smith from Raiders who was AWFUL in Vegas last year. Could provide decent opportunity for Garrett Wilson (elite WR needs better QB play). Adonai Mitchell likely to play WR3 behind Omar Cooper Jr (round 1 pick). Will have to monitor closely to see. Drafted Kenyon Sadiq Round 1 TE (high ceiling but may take time to break out). Mason Taylor will likely be TE2 behind Sadiq but could be starter at beginning of season. Breece Hall lands HUGE extension 3 year $45 million deal. Keeping him in New York through 2028. The talent is there, but the offense has to be able to score for Breece to be productive.

How the volume number was reached: New QB Geno Smith, avg 31.9 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.8 att/g; New OC Frank Reich — pass rate and tempo may shift.

How that share projection was built

29 historical comps for WRs age ~25, prior share 27.3%, same team, OC change, QB change. Distribution: median 24.0%, p25-p75 [22.5%, 27.1%], tails [18.6%, 29.7%]. Closest comps: Garrett Wilson 2024→2025 (NYJ: 27.0%→35.4%); Garrett Wilson 2023→2024 (NYJ: 28.1%→25.8%); Odell Beckham 2020→2021 (CLE: 28.2%→18.2%).

self-anchored 45% to own 27.3% role (2yr), 55% to comp median 24.0%

The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.

Offensive environment: NYJ rates 18.8 against a league average of 23, 4.2 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-3.2 · harder
Weeks 1–6+2.9 · easier
Weeks 12–17-5 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)-7.6 · harder

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

SeasonGames missedMain beneficiaryTheir PPR gain
20253Tyler Johnson+10.1
Read the full Garrett Wilson study →

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved -8.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
DeAndre Hopkins202216.964%0%
Brandon Aiyuk202315.659%-5.6%
DeVonta Smith202314.258%+12.6%
Brandon Aiyuk20248.956%-27.7%
Jaylen Waddle202314.255%0%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 2 lost it and 2 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0006,0008,0002023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2022-03 to 2026-07. Up 19% across the series, peaking at 7,350.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2022, round 1, pick 10 by NYJ
CollegeOhio St.
Age at draft22
Height6′0″
Weight183 lb
40-yard dash4.38s
Vertical36″
Broad jump123″
Shuttle4.36s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game13
Week-to-week variation0.6
Boom rate19.6%
Bust rate28.3%
Games missed per season0.8
Injury historyKnee
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.21

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · NYJ · 7 games

His best game was Week 3 against TB — 24.4 PPR on 13 targets and a 37.1% target share, in a game that finished 27-29. His worst was Week 10 against CLE at 0, on 3 targets, final score 27-20. Across 7 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 2 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 14.4 points per game. He scored 14.21, 1.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 0.74 expected, a gap of 1.3.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1PIT32-3422.57995142.9%100%
2BUF10-3094850038.1%94%
3TB27-2924.4101384137.1%100%
4MIA21-2720.26882129.6%98%
5DAL22-3719.161071122.7%94%
6DEN11-134.33813050%84%
10CLE27-200030027.3%39%

Production

Receptions36
Targets59
Receiving yards395
Touchdowns4
Points per game14.21
Yards per target6.69
Catch rate61.02%

Role

Snap share87%
Target share35.39%
Air-yards share56.24%
WOPR0.924
RACR0.689

Efficiency

Average depth of target9.1
Yards after catch per reception2.8
Yards before catch per reception8.2
Total YAC100
Broken tackles3
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted89.3
Receiving EPA per game-0.29

Scoring position

Red-zone targets4
Red-zone target share7.1%
End-zone target share5.6%
Expected receiving TDs0.74
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck1.26

Who else ate

The offense threw it 493 times. He took 12.8% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Mason Taylor14.1%
Garrett Wilson 12.8%
Adonai Mitchell12.58%
Breece Hall10.41%
John Metchie III9.54%
Isaiah Williams7.81%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Justin Fields53813.226.8734.5%
Tyrod Taylor22116.76.3837.6%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 7 games were blowouts, 9.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9 in those and 14.28 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · NYJ · 17 games

His best game was Week 9 against HOU — 30 PPR on 10 targets and a 31.3% target share, in a game that finished 21-13. His worst was Week 11 against IND at 5.8, on 8 targets, final score 27-28. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.5; in the 7 decided by more, 12.4. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 15.9 points per game. He scored 14.82, 7.1% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 5.98 expected, a gap of -2.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1SF19-321261160037.9%96%
2TEN24-1710.24657020.7%96%
3NE24-314.35933126.5%88%
4DEN9-107.15841019.5%96%
5MIN17-2329.11322101143.1%96%
6BUF20-2324.7810107129.4%97%
7PIT15-3713.15961023.1%100%
8NE22-2516.358113032%98%
9HOU21-133091090231.3%98%
10ARI6-319.15641018.2%97%
11IND27-285.84818027.6%100%
13SEA21-269.151041026.3%97%
14MIA26-3218.4710114025.6%99%
15JAX32-2514.63656121.4%98%
16LA9-1911.46754016.7%100%
17BUF14-4017.67866125.8%83%
18MIA32-209.14551014.3%98%

Production

Receptions101
Targets153
Receiving yards1,104
Carries2
Rushing yards5
Touchdowns7
Points per game14.82
Yards per target7.22
Catch rate66.01%
Yards per carry2.5

Role

Snap share96.29%
Target share25.85%
Air-yards share34.37%
WOPR0.628
RACR0.995

Efficiency

Average depth of target9.1
Yards after catch per reception4.4
Yards before catch per reception6.6
Total YAC442
Broken tackles7
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted88.2
Receiving EPA per game1.34
Rushing EPA per game-0.01

Scoring position

Red-zone targets24
Red-zone target share26.7%
End-zone target share24.3%
Expected receiving TDs5.98
Actual receiving TDs4
Receiving TD luck-1.98

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game19 of 51
Yards per target40 of 51
Target share17 of 51
Air-yards share15 of 51

Who else ate

The offense threw it 607 times. He took 25.98% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Garrett Wilson 25.98%
Davante Adams19.35%
Breece Hall12.9%
Tyler Conklin12.22%
Allen Lazard10.36%
Jeremy Ruckert4.75%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 21.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.53 in those and 16.53 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · NYJ · 17 games

His best game was Week 14 against HOU — 20.1 PPR on 14 targets and a 40% target share, in a game that finished 30-6. His worst was Week 11 against BUF at 0.9, on 8 targets, final score 6-32. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.5; in the 9 decided by more, 10.8. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 17 points per game. He scored 12.54, 26.2% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 4.51 expected, a gap of -2.5.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1BUF22-1614.45534127.8%93%
2DAL10-3016.32883132%91%
3NE10-159.85948032.1%97%
4KC20-231591460035.9%93%
5DEN31-218.43754026.9%83%
6PHI20-141781290036.4%88%
8NYG13-1017.6713100038.2%89%
9LAC6-271371380027.1%98%
10LV12-1618.391493037.8%94%
11BUF6-320.9289028.6%95%
12MIA13-3417.471044127.8%95%
13ATL8-1383750019.4%100%
14HOU30-620.1914108040%91%
15MIA0-305.93429012.1%95%
16WAS30-2815.891576033.3%96%
17CLE20-379.951050022.7%99%
18NE17-35.42534027.8%58%

Production

Receptions95
Targets168
Receiving yards1,042
Carries4
Touchdowns3
Points per game12.54
Yards per target6.2
Catch rate56.55%

Role

Snap share91.47%
Target share29.76%
Air-yards share43.47%
WOPR0.751
RACR0.67

Efficiency

Average depth of target10.2
Yards after catch per reception3.4
Yards before catch per reception7.5
Total YAC327
Broken tackles9
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted66.1
Receiving EPA per game-0.62
Rushing EPA per game0.02

Scoring position

Red-zone targets19
Red-zone target share33.3%
End-zone target share46.2%
Expected receiving TDs4.51
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck-2.51

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game31 of 51
Yards per target48 of 51
Target share7 of 51
Air-yards share3 of 51

Who else ate

The offense threw it 600 times. He took 30.05% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Garrett Wilson 30.05%
Breece Hall16.99%
Tyler Conklin15.56%
Allen Lazard8.77%
Xavier Gipson6.8%
Jeremy Ruckert3.94%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Zach Wilson1111713.716.4932.98%
Trevor Siemian4349.255.5623.97%
Tim Boyle21712.75.5323.6%

Blowouts against close games

7 of his 17 games were blowouts, 39.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.93 in those and 14.49 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · NYJ · 17 games

His best game was Week 2 against CLE — 30 PPR on 14 targets and a 32.6% target share, in a game that finished 31-30. His worst was Week 6 against GB at 1.8, on 5 targets, final score 27-10. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.1; in the 7 decided by more, 9.3. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 14.8 points per game. He scored 12.69, 14.1% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 4.75 expected, a gap of -1.7.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1BAL9-249.24852014%49%
2CLE31-3030814102232.6%61%
3CIN12-271261160022.9%63%
4PIT24-206.12641018.2%77%
5MIA40-175.73427019%56%
6GB27-101.8158029.4%44%
7DEN16-96.44424017.4%73%
8NE17-2217.567115020.6%88%
9BUF20-1717.98992037.5%92%
11NE3-103.22312015%100%
12CHI31-1026.45895228.6%83%
13MIN22-2724.2815162027.3%92%
14BUF12-2013.86778015.9%97%
15DET17-2013.84998026.5%98%
16JAX3-1954930030%97%
17SEA6-234.831118024.4%100%
18MIA6-1117.991789053.1%88%

Production

Receptions83
Targets147
Receiving yards1,103
Carries4
Rushing yards4
Touchdowns4
Points per game12.69
Yards per target7.5
Catch rate56.46%
Yards per carry1

Role

Snap share79.88%
Target share25.44%
Air-yards share28.88%
WOPR0.584
RACR1.051

Efficiency

Average depth of target10.5
Yards after catch per reception4.6
Yards before catch per reception8.7
Total YAC384
Broken tackles10
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted86.6
Receiving EPA per game1.97
Rushing EPA per game-0.13

Scoring position

Red-zone targets19
Red-zone target share30.2%
End-zone target share44%
Red-zone carry share1.6%
Expected receiving TDs4.75
Actual receiving TDs3
Receiving TD luck-1.75
Expected rushing TDs0.06

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game30 of 51
Yards per target34 of 51
Target share18 of 51
Air-yards share28 of 51

Who else ate

The offense threw it 625 times. He took 25.04% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Garrett Wilson 25.04%
Tyler Conklin14.82%
Elijah Moore11.07%
Corey Davis10.9%
Michael Carter9.2%
Braxton Berrios5.45%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Zach Wilson9568.67.9823.73%
Joe Flacco45017.276.0630.65%
Mike White44117.38.6124.05%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 17.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.67 in those and 15.08 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

Ask the Coach about Garrett Wilson →
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