Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 12.92 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 85.6, usage worth 12.4.
30 years old · 8 seasons of experience · 2018 draft class
| SLEEPER | 80.9 |
| ESPN | 85.9 |
| YAHOO | 99.6 |
| UNDERDOG | 84.5 |
| CBS | 76.2 |
| FFA | 104 |
| Goes around | Round 8, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR33 |
| Bye week | 10 |
| ADP standard deviation | 10.1 picks |
Our board has him at 158.1 points, 9.6 per game — 55.1 catches, 718 yards, 5.2 TDs. That is WR5, 103 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 7.8 points per game to a ceiling of 15.1, with the median at 9.6. Boom rate 57%, bust rate 19%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 85.6 on consensus and our board has him 103. We rank him 17.4 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
a legitimately good, still-productive NFL receiver, but specifically discounted for a season-long redraft build because as long as Waddle stays healthy there's no real path to a weekly-startable target share. Framed as a fine best-ball pickup (stable, low-variance, late), not someone worth planning to actually start in redraft.
watch · medium conviction · 2026-08Denver Broncos returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, oc. Bo Nix at quarterback, Sean Payton as head coach, Davis Webb calling it. The offense projects to 35 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 26.4 rushes.
In: Jaylen Waddle (wr1), Lil'Jordan Humphrey (wr6), Dane Key (wr7), Jonah Coleman (rb3).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 19.7%, with a bear case of 18.7% and a bull case of 19.9% and a full range of 17.5% to 21.1%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Courtland Sutton ← | 19.7% |
| Troy Franklin | 10.9% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 9.8% |
| RJ Harvey | 9% |
| Evan Engram | 8.3% |
| Pat Bryant | 7.6% |
What the offense looks like: The Jaylen Waddle trade is probably bad for Waddle & Suttons value. It is likely worse for Sutton than Waddle though. The RB room is also nearly impossible to predict. What we do know: if a RB is featured on this offense they are a weekly RB1, but JK Dobbins, Harvey, and now Coleman will be difficult to trust when all three are healthy. WR 3 - WR 6 on Denver all are promising young WR and could be potential trade targets for WR needy teams early in 2026.
Key additions: A key add is Broncos QB coach Davis Webb was promoted to OC & will handle play calling in 2026. Webb was a potential head coach candidate & Denver maintains a great weapon on their coaching staff. Broncos traded 1st round pick for WR Jaylen Waddle from dolphins. He will likely function as teams WR1. Broncos also drafted RB Jonah Coleman in the 4th round from washington & TE Justin Joly in the 5th round.
Key departures: No key departures on offense
Notes: Bo Nix will be 100% healthy by camp following foot injury in NFL playoffs. Broncos traded their 2026 1st round pick for Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle. This will significantly reduce Sutton's role as the alpha in the offense. Pat Bryant & Troy Franklin will likely have trade interest but if they stay on the team will have reduced roles. Broncos backfield is incredibly difficult to project & will need to be monitored all summer. Denver extended JK Dobbins & Drafted Jonah Coleman in the 5th round. Dobbins expected to be 1A and Harvey 1B, with Coleman as reserve, but Sean Payton as HC can do whatever he wants. Broncos drafted TE Justin Joly in the 5th round who has a small chance to be relevant because Evan Engram is legit trash
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Bo Nix returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (36 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 35 att/g; New OC Davis Webb — pass rate and tempo may shift.
25 historical comps for WRs age ~29, prior share 22.7%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 20.0%, p25-p75 [18.1%, 21.1%], tails [15.0%, 24.4%]. Closest comps: DK Metcalf 2023→2024 (SEA: 24.4%→20.8%); Amari Cooper 2023→2024 (CLE: 23.4%→18.7%); Tyler Lockett 2023→2024 (SEA: 22.7%→13.3%). Adjustment: +4% from hidden_breakout (skill jumped, production setup)
self-anchored 58% to own 22.7% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 20.0%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: DEN rates 22.9 against a league average of 23, 0.1 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.6 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -4.8 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +0.8 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -9.2 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | Jerry Jeudy | +11.9 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -15.1% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 2023 | 11.9 | 70% | -28.6% |
| Terry McLaurin | 2024 | 15.8 | 69% | -16.4% |
| Amari Cooper | 2023 | 15.1 | 68% | -18.9% |
| Amari Cooper | 2022 | 14.5 | 60% | +21.3% |
| Michael Pittman | 2024 | 10.4 | 57% | +14.8% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2018, round 2, pick 40 by DEN |
| College | SMU |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′3″ |
| Weight | 218 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.54s |
| Vertical | 35.5″ |
| Broad jump | 124″ |
| 3-cone | 6.57s |
| Shuttle | 4.11s |
| Career PPR per game | 11.6 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 19.7% |
| Bust rate | 24.2% |
| Games missed per season | 0.6 |
| Injury history | Hamstring, Concussion |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.03 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 15 against GB — 24.3 PPR on 10 targets and a 31.3% target share, in a game that finished 34-26. His worst was Week 18 against LAC at 1.5, on 2 targets, final score 19-3. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 13 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.9; in the 4 decided by more, 13. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 12.4 points per game. He scored 12.92, 1.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 20-12 | 18.1 | 6 | 9 | 61 | 1 | 24.3% | 95% |
| 2 | IND | 28-29 | 1.6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 13.3% | 78% |
| 3 | LAC | 20-23 | 23.8 | 6 | 8 | 118 | 1 | 34.8% | 81% |
| 4 | CIN | 28-3 | 19.1 | 5 | 6 | 81 | 1 | 14.3% | 85% |
| 5 | PHI | 21-17 | 17.9 | 8 | 10 | 99 | 0 | 27.8% | 95% |
| 6 | NYJ | 13-11 | 2.7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 11.5% | 80% |
| 7 | NYG | 33-32 | 16.7 | 6 | 10 | 87 | 0 | 20.4% | 94% |
| 8 | DAL | 44-24 | 10.7 | 4 | 6 | 67 | 0 | 22.2% | 84% |
| 9 | HOU | 18-15 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 1 | 17.6% | 92% |
| 10 | LV | 10-7 | 5.4 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 14.8% | 87% |
| 11 | KC | 22-19 | 9.9 | 4 | 8 | 59 | 0 | 22.2% | 92% |
| 13 | WAS | 27-26 | 17.2 | 5 | 6 | 62 | 1 | 14% | 81% |
| 14 | LV | 24-17 | 12.2 | 6 | 10 | 62 | 0 | 27.8% | 65% |
| 15 | GB | 34-26 | 24.3 | 7 | 10 | 113 | 1 | 31.3% | 88% |
| 16 | JAX | 20-34 | 20.6 | 6 | 12 | 86 | 1 | 26.1% | 94% |
| 17 | KC | 20-13 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 40 | 0 | 27% | 82% |
| 18 | LAC | 19-3 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8.7% | 78% |
| Receptions | 74 |
| Targets | 124 |
| Receiving yards | 1,017 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 12.92 |
| Yards per target | 8.2 |
| Catch rate | 59.68% |
| Snap share | 85.35% |
| Target share | 21.06% |
| Air-yards share | 34.44% |
| WOPR | 0.558 |
| RACR | 0.696 |
| Average depth of target | 12.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.7 |
| Total YAC | 222 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 94.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.68 |
| Red-zone targets | 20 |
| Red-zone target share | 22.2% |
| End-zone target share | 44.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.19 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.19 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 18 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 20 of 44 |
| Target share | 27 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 18 of 44 |
The offense threw it 613 times. He took 21.6% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Courtland Sutton ← | 21.6% |
| Troy Franklin | 18.12% |
| Evan Engram | 13.24% |
| RJ Harvey | 10.1% |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 8.89% |
| Pat Bryant | 8.54% |
2 of his 17 games were blowouts, 13.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.9 in those and 12.91 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 12 against LV — 29.7 PPR on 10 targets and a 25.6% target share, in a game that finished 29-19. His worst was Week 2 against PIT at 3.6, on 4 targets, final score 6-13. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.5; in the 9 decided by more, 17. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 15 points per game. He scored 15.02, 0.9% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 7 against 4.99 expected, a gap of 2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 20-26 | 7.8 | 4 | 12 | 38 | 0 | 28.6% | 91% |
| 2 | PIT | 6-13 | 3.6 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 12.1% | 89% |
| 3 | TB | 26-7 | 13.8 | 7 | 11 | 68 | 0 | 32.4% | 74% |
| 4 | NYJ | 10-9 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 60 | 1 | 36% | 79% |
| 5 | LV | 34-18 | 5.2 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 19.2% | 81% |
| 6 | LAC | 16-23 | 15.3 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 1 | 18.8% | 85% |
| 8 | CAR | 28-14 | 17.12 | 8 | 11 | 100 | 0 | 28.9% | 84% |
| 9 | BAL | 10-41 | 23.28 | 7 | 10 | 122 | 1 | 30.3% | 85% |
| 10 | KC | 14-16 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 70 | 1 | 32.1% | 93% |
| 11 | ATL | 38-6 | 14.8 | 7 | 8 | 78 | 0 | 25% | 84% |
| 12 | LV | 29-19 | 29.7 | 8 | 10 | 97 | 2 | 25.6% | 85% |
| 13 | CLE | 41-32 | 16.2 | 6 | 9 | 102 | 0 | 29% | 94% |
| 15 | IND | 31-13 | 12.2 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 1 | 28.1% | 90% |
| 16 | LAC | 27-34 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 | 15.4% | 91% |
| 17 | CIN | 24-30 | 16.5 | 5 | 9 | 55 | 1 | 29% | 93% |
| 18 | KC | 38-0 | 20.8 | 5 | 7 | 98 | 1 | 24.1% | 65% |
| Receptions | 81 |
| Targets | 135 |
| Receiving yards | 1,081 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 15.02 |
| Yards per target | 8.01 |
| Catch rate | 60% |
| Snap share | 85.19% |
| Target share | 25.91% |
| Air-yards share | 47.67% |
| WOPR | 0.723 |
| RACR | 0.644 |
| Average depth of target | 13.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.1 |
| Total YAC | 179 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 86.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.32 |
| Red-zone targets | 23 |
| Red-zone target share | 31.1% |
| End-zone target share | 51.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.99 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 7 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.01 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 17 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 28 of 51 |
| Target share | 16 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 1 of 51 |
The offense threw it 569 times. He took 25.09% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Courtland Sutton ← | 25.09% |
| Javonte Williams | 13.01% |
| Devaughn Vele | 10.22% |
| Troy Franklin | 9.85% |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 9.67% |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 8.36% |
5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 35.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.98 in those and 12.46 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 7 against GB — 19.6 PPR on 6 targets and a 25% target share, in a game that finished 19-17. His worst was Week 16 against NE at 0, on 1 targets, final score 23-26. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.2; in the 8 decided by more, 10.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 9.7 points per game. He scored 11.89, 22.9% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 8 against 3.82 expected, a gap of 4.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 16-17 | 13.2 | 4 | 5 | 32 | 1 | 15.6% | 86% |
| 2 | WAS | 33-35 | 11.6 | 5 | 7 | 66 | 0 | 25.9% | 89% |
| 3 | MIA | 20-70 | 19.1 | 8 | 11 | 91 | 1 | 30.6% | 95% |
| 4 | CHI | 31-28 | 11.7 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 1 | 19.2% | 83% |
| 5 | NYJ | 21-31 | 2.3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 11.1% | 86% |
| 6 | KC | 8-19 | 14.6 | 4 | 6 | 46 | 1 | 27.3% | 94% |
| 7 | GB | 19-17 | 19.6 | 6 | 6 | 76 | 1 | 25% | 86% |
| 8 | KC | 24-9 | 10.9 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 1 | 16.7% | 79% |
| 10 | BUF | 24-22 | 17.3 | 8 | 11 | 53 | 1 | 37.9% | 87% |
| 11 | MIN | 21-20 | 16.6 | 4 | 5 | 66 | 1 | 15.6% | 80% |
| 12 | CLE | 29-12 | 9.1 | 3 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 28.6% | 78% |
| 13 | HOU | 17-22 | 15.7 | 2 | 7 | 77 | 1 | 29.2% | 85% |
| 14 | LAC | 24-7 | 15.2 | 3 | 4 | 62 | 1 | 13.3% | 75% |
| 15 | DET | 17-42 | 12.1 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 0 | 18.8% | 94% |
| 16 | NE | 23-26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.9% | 13% |
| 18 | LV | 14-27 | 1.2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12.5% | 46% |
| Receptions | 59 |
| Targets | 90 |
| Receiving yards | 772 |
| Touchdowns | 10 |
| Points per game | 11.89 |
| Yards per target | 8.58 |
| Catch rate | 65.56% |
| Snap share | 78.5% |
| Target share | 20.64% |
| Air-yards share | 32.8% |
| WOPR | 0.538 |
| RACR | 0.763 |
| Average depth of target | 11.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.4 |
| Total YAC | 156 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 120.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.38 |
| Red-zone targets | 18 |
| Red-zone target share | 25.4% |
| End-zone target share | 41.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.82 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 8 |
| Receiving TD luck | 4.18 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 37 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 21 of 51 |
| Target share | 35 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 22 of 51 |
The offense threw it 513 times. He took 18.99% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Courtland Sutton ← | 18.99% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 18.35% |
| Javonte Williams | 12.24% |
| Samaje Perine | 11.81% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 7.59% |
| Adam Trautman | 7.38% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 15 | 86 | 12.6 | 8.95 | 21.18% |
| Jarrett Stidham | 1 | 4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 12.5% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 29.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.88 in those and 13.21 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 2 against HOU — 19.7 PPR on 11 targets and a 39.3% target share, in a game that finished 16-9. His worst was Week 13 against BAL at 0, on 1 targets, final score 9-10. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.9; in the 3 decided by more, 13.7. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 12.4 points per game. He scored 10.63, 14.4% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 3.58 expected, a gap of -1.6.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 16-17 | 11.2 | 4 | 7 | 72 | 0 | 17.1% | 95% |
| 2 | HOU | 16-9 | 19.7 | 7 | 11 | 122 | 0 | 39.3% | 92% |
| 3 | SF | 11-10 | 17.7 | 8 | 10 | 97 | 0 | 31.3% | 86% |
| 4 | LV | 23-32 | 16.2 | 5 | 7 | 52 | 1 | 28% | 94% |
| 5 | IND | 9-12 | 12.4 | 5 | 11 | 74 | 0 | 28.9% | 93% |
| 6 | LAC | 16-19 | 3.4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 12% | 100% |
| 7 | NYJ | 9-16 | 5.3 | 3 | 9 | 23 | 0 | 20% | 91% |
| 8 | JAX | 21-17 | 2.3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 15.4% | 95% |
| 10 | TEN | 10-17 | 12.6 | 6 | 11 | 66 | 0 | 28.2% | 93% |
| 11 | LV | 16-22 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 80 | 0 | 25% | 92% |
| 12 | CAR | 10-23 | 13.5 | 6 | 8 | 75 | 0 | 25% | 93% |
| 13 | BAL | 9-10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.8% | 43% |
| 16 | LA | 14-51 | 11.4 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 0 | 20.6% | 79% |
| 17 | KC | 24-27 | 8.4 | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 16.7% | 81% |
| 18 | LAC | 31-28 | 12.3 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 1 | 31.8% | 94% |
| Receptions | 64 |
| Targets | 109 |
| Receiving yards | 829 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 5 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 10.63 |
| Yards per target | 7.61 |
| Catch rate | 58.72% |
| Yards per carry | 5 |
| Snap share | 88.07% |
| Target share | 22.94% |
| Air-yards share | 29.04% |
| WOPR | 0.547 |
| RACR | 0.616 |
| Average depth of target | 12.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.6 |
| Total YAC | 152 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 73.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.59 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.01 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 26.4% |
| End-zone target share | 33.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.58 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.58 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 38 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 31 of 51 |
| Target share | 25 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 25 of 51 |
The offense threw it 571 times. He took 20.6% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Courtland Sutton ← | 20.6% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 18.9% |
| Greg Dulcich | 10.4% |
| Latavius Murray | 6.43% |
| Kendall Hinton | 6.24% |
| Melvin Gordon | 6.05% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 14 | 100 | 11.01 | 8.06 | 23.15% |
| Brett Rypien | 1 | 9 | 5.3 | 2.56 | 20% |
1 of his 15 games were blowouts, 7.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.4 in those and 9.86 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 5 against PIT — 25 PPR on 11 targets and a 31.4% target share, in a game that finished 19-27. His worst was Week 14 against DET at 1.9, on 2 targets, final score 38-10. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.4; in the 11 decided by more, 8.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 10 points per game. He scored 8.84, 11.5% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.99 expected, a gap of -2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 27-13 | 2.4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 8.6% | 80% |
| 2 | JAX | 23-13 | 24.9 | 9 | 12 | 159 | 0 | 35.3% | 77% |
| 3 | NYJ | 26-0 | 8.7 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 20.8% | 76% |
| 4 | BAL | 7-23 | 7.7 | 3 | 8 | 47 | 0 | 21.6% | 95% |
| 5 | PIT | 19-27 | 25 | 7 | 11 | 120 | 1 | 31.4% | 90% |
| 6 | LV | 24-34 | 23.4 | 8 | 14 | 94 | 1 | 29.2% | 88% |
| 7 | CLE | 14-17 | 11.8 | 5 | 5 | 68 | 0 | 15.6% | 94% |
| 8 | WAS | 17-10 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 16% | 87% |
| 9 | DAL | 30-16 | 3.9 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 8.3% | 83% |
| 10 | PHI | 13-30 | 4.9 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 8.8% | 95% |
| 12 | LAC | 28-13 | 3.7 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 13% | 73% |
| 13 | KC | 9-22 | 3.5 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 16.7% | 88% |
| 14 | DET | 38-10 | 1.9 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 8% | 87% |
| 15 | CIN | 10-15 | 3.2 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 21.9% | 92% |
| 16 | LV | 13-17 | 7.3 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 22.7% | 79% |
| 17 | LAC | 13-34 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 60 | 0 | 18.5% | 87% |
| 18 | KC | 24-28 | 2.94 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 12.5% | 76% |
| Receptions | 58 |
| Targets | 98 |
| Receiving yards | 776 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 8.84 |
| Yards per target | 7.92 |
| Catch rate | 59.18% |
| Snap share | 85.12% |
| Target share | 18.17% |
| Air-yards share | 29.72% |
| WOPR | 0.481 |
| RACR | 0.595 |
| Average depth of target | 15.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.1 |
| Total YAC | 135 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 78.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.19 |
| Red-zone targets | 12 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.1% |
| End-zone target share | 21.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.99 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.99 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 45 of 48 |
| Yards per target | 29 of 48 |
| Target share | 39 of 48 |
| Air-yards share | 22 of 48 |
The offense threw it 541 times. He took 18.99% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Courtland Sutton ← | 18.99% |
| Noah Fant | 17.44% |
| Tim Patrick | 16.47% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 10.85% |
| Javonte Williams | 10.27% |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 7.75% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 13 | 77 | 9.48 | 8.09 | 17.97% |
| Drew Lock | 4 | 21 | 6.74 | 7.29 | 18.82% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 16.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.13 in those and 9.37 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His usage that season was worth 10.8 points per game. He scored 9.6, 11.1% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PIT | 21-26 | 9.6 | 3 | 6 | 66 | 0 | 15.8% | 40% |
| Receptions | 3 |
| Targets | 6 |
| Receiving yards | 66 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 9.6 |
| Yards per target | 11 |
| Catch rate | 50% |
| Snap share | 40% |
| Target share | 15.8% |
| Air-yards share | 20.6% |
| WOPR | 0.38 |
| RACR | 0.62 |
| Average depth of target | 17.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 19.7 |
| Total YAC | 7 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.2% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 50 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -4.62 |
The offense threw it 556 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jerry Jeudy | 21.2% |
| Noah Fant | 17.45% |
| Tim Patrick | 14.82% |
| K.J. Hamler | 10.51% |
| Melvin Gordon | 8.26% |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 8.26% |