Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 9.07 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 144.6, usage worth 11.5.
25 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| SLEEPER | 155.3 |
| ESPN | 151.7 |
| YAHOO | 132.3 |
| UNDERDOG | 141.1 |
| CBS | 138.9 |
| FFA | 143 |
| Goes around | Round 12, pick 13 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB44 |
| Bye week | 8 |
| ADP standard deviation | 10.8 picks |
Our board has him at 100.4 points, 6.3 per game — 468 rushing yards, 2.5 rushing TDs, 17.6 catches. That is RB5, 144 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 0.1 points per game to a ceiling of 10, with the median at 6.3. Boom rate 59%, bust rate 98%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 144.6 on consensus and our board has him 144. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
Houston Texans returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1. CJ Stroud at quarterback, Demeco Ryans as head coach, Nick Caley calling it. The offense projects to 34 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.5 rushes.
In: Nathaniel Dell (wr3), Lewis Bond (wr7), David Montgomery (rb1), Noah Whittington (rb4), Foster Moreau (te2). Out: Nick Chubb (rb2), Cade Stover (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| David Montgomery | 38.8% |
| Woody Marks ← | 34.3% |
| Jawhar Jordan | 24.6% |
| Noah Whittington | 2.3% |
What the offense looks like: If this offense could produce at a higher level than 2025, this will be an offense you want to have pieces of. David Montgomery COULD be a very interesting high end RB2 as long as RB Woody Marks does not eat into his PT too much. Houston also has arguably the best defense in the entire NFL. they will keep them in every game & force turnovers to get this offense the ball back.
Key additions: Texans signed starting LG Wyatt Teller & starting RT Braden Smith this offseason. Also drafted C Keylan Rutledge in the 1st round. all 3 upgrades to last year. Should help protect CJ Stroud & HOPEFULLY GET A RUN GAME GOING IN HOUSTON. Traded for Lions RB David Montgomery. Joe mixon saw great success in 2024 & Montgomery COULD see a high degree of success too. Drafted WR Lewis Bond as well who does not have immediate upside.
Notes: Nico Collins remains a high producing dynasty WR when CJ Stroud plays well. Texans have to improve O line play for offense to provide large fantasy relevance. Traded for David Montgomery from the Lions & He will operate as RB1 with Woody Marks expected to also work in. CJ Stroud has struggled since his rookie season & is a mid range QB2 most weeks in fantasy. Texans do expect to extend him long term despite poor play. Jayden Higgins is an interesting year 2 breakout candidate but Tank Dell also returns in 2026 (We will see if his knee still works).
How the volume number was reached: Same QB CJ Stroud returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.2 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 34 att/g.
| Projected carry share | 34.3% |
| Projected carries per game | 7.7 |
| Projected carries, full season | 132 |
| Last season, carries per game | 12.7 |
That is a reduction of 5 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 27.5 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: HOU rates 22.5 against a league average of 23, 0.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +0.6 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +3.8 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -0.9 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -5.1 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Woody Marks study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +26% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 2024 | 14.4 | 62% | +7% |
| Raheem Mostert | 2022 | 10.5 | 62% | +113.5% |
| Brian Robinson | 2023 | 13.2 | 61% | +26.1% |
| Jeffery Wilson | 2022 | 9.9 | 59% | -24.8% |
| Alexander Mattison | 2021 | 7.9 | 59% | +12% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 4 gained value, 1 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 4, pick 116 by HOU |
| College | USC |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| Height | 5′10″ |
| Weight | 207 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.54s |
| Vertical | 35″ |
| Broad jump | 119″ |
| Shuttle | 4.24s |
His best game was Week 4 against TEN — 27.9 PPR on 22 touches and a 17.9% target share, in a game that finished 26-0. His worst was Week 1 against LA at 0.3, on 3 touches, final score 9-14. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.2; in the 5 decided by more, 13.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 11.5 points per game. He scored 9.07, 20.1% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 9-14 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 11% |
| 2 | TB | 19-20 | 6.1 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 4.3% | 27% |
| 3 | JAX | 10-17 | 4.6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 5.6% | 48% |
| 4 | TEN | 26-0 | 27.9 | 4 | 5 | 50 | 17 | 69 | 2 | 17.9% | 56% |
| 5 | BAL | 44-10 | 2.4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 3.2% | 39% |
| 7 | SEA | 19-27 | 12.5 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 10.9% | 63% |
| 8 | SF | 26-15 | 15.1 | 4 | 4 | 49 | 11 | 62 | 0 | 10.5% | 40% |
| 9 | DEN | 15-18 | 2.7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 27 | 0 | 7.7% | 48% |
| 10 | JAX | 36-29 | 16.1 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 14 | 63 | 1 | 6.8% | 80% |
| 11 | TEN | 16-13 | 6.1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 44 | 0 | 2.5% | 66% |
| 12 | BUF | 23-19 | 7.9 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 16 | 74 | 0 | 3.6% | 69% |
| 13 | IND | 20-16 | 7.7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 64 | 0 | 3.1% | 54% |
| 14 | KC | 20-10 | 15.6 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 68 | 1 | 11.1% | 87% |
| 15 | ARI | 40-20 | 4.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 30 | 0 | 3.8% | 22% |
| 17 | LAC | 20-16 | 8.5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 71 | 0 | 7.7% | 68% |
| 18 | IND | 38-30 | 6.8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 48 | 0 | 10.7% | 46% |
| Receptions | 24 |
| Targets | 36 |
| Receiving yards | 208 |
| Carries | 196 |
| Rushing yards | 703 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 9.07 |
| Yards per target | 5.78 |
| Catch rate | 66.67% |
| Yards per carry | 3.59 |
| Snap share | 51.5% |
| Target share | 6.84% |
| Air-yards share | 1.75% |
| WOPR | 0.114 |
| RACR | -0.765 |
| Average depth of target | 2.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.6 |
| Total YAC | 223 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 109.5 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.45 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.82 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 11.9% |
| End-zone target share | 8.8% |
| Red-zone carry share | 48.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 39.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.49 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.51 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 5.81 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 36 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 25 of 49 |
| Target share | 33 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 5 of 49 |
The offense threw it 582 times. He took 6.51% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Nico Collins | 21.7% |
| Dalton Schultz | 19.17% |
| Jayden Higgins | 12.3% |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 10.31% |
| Christian Kirk | 9.4% |
| Woody Marks ← | 6.51% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 12 | 28 | 9.36 | 6.71 | 7.4% |
| Davis Mills | 4 | 8 | 8.2 | 2.5 | 5.15% |
3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 24.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.7 in those and 7.21 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Woody Marks →