Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 14.68 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 93.2, usage worth 10.7.
32 years old · 9 seasons of experience · 2017 draft class
| SLEEPER | 92.2 |
| ESPN | 98.1 |
| YAHOO | 89.2 |
| UNDERDOG | 114.3 |
| CBS | 93.2 |
| FFA | 89 |
| Goes around | Round 8, pick 9 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE9 |
| Bye week | 8 |
| ADP standard deviation | 3.7 picks |
Our board has him at 160.4 points, 10.6 per game — 59.1 catches, 737 yards, 4.6 TDs. That is TE3, 89 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 8.7 points per game to a ceiling of 13.8, with the median at 10.6. Boom rate 30%, bust rate 18%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 93.2 on consensus and our board has him 89. We rank him 4.2 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
Note: the transcript's 'KD' refers to the 49ers' veteran TE coming off an Achilles. If the recovery is the milder Achilles variety as reported, he's a late-round elite-TE value with far more upside than the mid-tier - exactly the 'pay up or wait, never the middle' play, landed late.
buy · medium conviction · 2026-06-14San Francisco 49ers returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1. Brock Purdy at quarterback, Kyle Shanahan as head coach, Klay Kubiak calling it. The offense projects to 33.7 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.7 rushes.
In: Mike Evans (wr1), De'Zhaun Stribling (wr2), Christian Kirk (wr4), Jacob Cowing (wr7), Kaelon Black (rb2). Out: Jauan Jennings (wr1), Kendrick Bourne (wr3), Brian Robinson Jr. (rb2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 11.5%, with a bear case of 9.3% and a bull case of 12.7% and a full range of 7.9% to 14%. That comes from 16 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| De'Zhaun Stribling | 16.1% |
| Mike Evans | 11.8% |
| George Kittle ← | 11.5% |
| Ricky Pearsall | 10.4% |
| Christian Kirk | 9.2% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 8.9% |
Key additions: Signed WR Mike Evans from Bucs in free agency. Signed WR Christian Kirk in free agency. Drafted WR De'Zhaun Stribling in the 2nd round from Ole Miss. Drafted RB Kaelon Black in the 3rd round.
Key departures: WR Brandon Aiyuk (who did not play all of 2025 due to injury) is gone. WR Jauan Jennings is also gone. He has functioned as 49ers WR 1/2 for the past two seasons. RB Brian Robinson Jr left to ATL in free agency.
Notes: Stribling round 2 has opportunity to break out early. Mike Evans signing in free agency. Should be alpha WR1 but aging & injury risk. Potential sell high but should produce in 2026. Drafted RB Kaelon Black round 3 from Indiana. Black was not even invited to the NFL combine, but 49ers LOVE him. Could assume RB2 role immediately if he beats out Jordan James. Ricky Pearsall has an opportunity to break out as a WR2 but needs to stay healthy enough to do so. Signed Christian Kirk in offseason, veteran with no fantasy value but will take away targets. Kittle recovering from torn achilles. Drafted Wills the TE. Tonges should function as primary TE2, Wills will be TE3. CMC is a potential sell high candidate but know if healthy he is the number 1 overall RB in 2026.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Brock Purdy returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.7 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.6 att/g.
16 historical comps for TEs age ~30, prior share 20.1%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 14.8%, p25-p75 [6.3%, 18.6%], tails [1.2%, 23.4%]. Closest comps: Rob Gronkowski 2020→2021 (TB: 14.8%→17.3%); Zach Ertz 2022→2023 (ARI: 18.2%→19.1%); Zach Ertz 2021→2022 (PHI→ARI: 19.6%→17.9%). Adjustment: -3% from mixed_decline (conflicting signals)
self-anchored 58% to own 20.1% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 14.8%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: SF rates 25.4 against a league average of 23, 2.4 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.6 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | +1.9 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -8.4 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -15.3 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 3 | Jordan Reed | +8.3 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -14.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 2023 | 13.5 | 59% | -18.5% |
| Dallas Goedert | 2024 | 10.4 | 54% | +6.7% |
| Darren Waller | 2023 | 9.4 | 53% | -76.8% |
| Mark Andrews | 2023 | 13.5 | 52% | -26% |
| Evan Engram | 2024 | 9.9 | 49% | -20.2% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2017, round 5, pick 146 by SFO |
| College | Iowa |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′4″ |
| Weight | 247 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.52s |
| Vertical | 35″ |
| Broad jump | 132″ |
| Career PPR per game | 15 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 23% |
| Bust rate | 26.2% |
| Games missed per season | 0.8 |
| Injury history | Knee, Foot, Calf, Hamstring |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.57 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 11 against ARI — 24.7 PPR on 6 targets and a 24% target share, in a game that finished 41-22. His worst was Week 7 against ATL at 0, on 2 targets, final score 20-10. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 3 times.
His usage that season was worth 10.7 points per game. He scored 14.68, 26.5% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 3.29 expected, a gap of 2.7.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 17-13 | 12.5 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 1 | 11.8% | 28% |
| 7 | ATL | 20-10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8.3% | 81% |
| 8 | HOU | 15-26 | 14.3 | 4 | 5 | 43 | 1 | 16.1% | 90% |
| 9 | NYG | 34-24 | 6.9 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 17.4% | 86% |
| 10 | LA | 26-42 | 23.4 | 9 | 9 | 84 | 1 | 23.1% | 90% |
| 11 | ARI | 41-22 | 24.7 | 6 | 6 | 67 | 2 | 24% | 87% |
| 12 | CAR | 20-9 | 13.8 | 6 | 10 | 78 | 0 | 31.3% | 91% |
| 13 | CLE | 26-8 | 10.7 | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 | 21.7% | 87% |
| 15 | TEN | 37-24 | 22.8 | 8 | 9 | 88 | 1 | 32.1% | 96% |
| 16 | IND | 48-27 | 24.5 | 7 | 8 | 115 | 1 | 24.2% | 62% |
| 18 | SEA | 3-13 | 7.9 | 5 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 25.9% | 95% |
| Receptions | 57 |
| Targets | 69 |
| Receiving yards | 628 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | -3 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 14.68 |
| Yards per target | 9.1 |
| Catch rate | 82.61% |
| Yards per carry | -3 |
| Snap share | 81.18% |
| Target share | 21.45% |
| Air-yards share | 18.5% |
| WOPR | 0.453 |
| RACR | 1.478 |
| Average depth of target | 6.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.6 |
| Total YAC | 252 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 138.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.21 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.09 |
| Red-zone targets | 13 |
| Red-zone target share | 14.3% |
| End-zone target share | 14.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.29 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.71 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
The offense threw it 574 times. He took 13.24% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Christian McCaffrey | 24.76% |
| Jauan Jennings | 17.27% |
| George Kittle ← | 13.24% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 10.17% |
| Ricky Pearsall | 10.17% |
| Jake Tonges | 8.83% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 7 | 49 | 16.7 | 9.57 | 24.43% |
| Mac Jones | 4 | 20 | 11.15 | 7.95 | 16.23% |
3 of his 11 games were blowouts, 37.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 19.97 in those and 12.5 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 8 against DAL — 24.8 PPR on 7 targets and a 28% target share, in a game that finished 30-24. His worst was Week 13 against BUF at 1.7, on 2 targets, final score 10-35. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.3; in the 9 decided by more, 14.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 11.1 points per game. He scored 15.77, 42.2% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 8 against 5.89 expected, a gap of 2.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 32-19 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 17.2% | 92% |
| 2 | MIN | 17-23 | 20.6 | 7 | 8 | 76 | 1 | 22.2% | 73% |
| 4 | NE | 30-13 | 14.5 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 1 | 15.4% | 94% |
| 5 | ARI | 23-24 | 20.4 | 8 | 12 | 64 | 1 | 37.5% | 91% |
| 6 | SEA | 36-24 | 22.8 | 5 | 6 | 58 | 2 | 22.2% | 88% |
| 7 | KC | 18-28 | 15.2 | 6 | 7 | 92 | 0 | 22.6% | 92% |
| 8 | DAL | 30-24 | 24.8 | 6 | 7 | 128 | 1 | 28% | 94% |
| 10 | TB | 23-20 | 14.7 | 3 | 4 | 57 | 1 | 11.8% | 89% |
| 12 | GB | 10-38 | 20.2 | 6 | 6 | 82 | 1 | 23.1% | 84% |
| 13 | BUF | 10-35 | 1.7 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 11.8% | 100% |
| 14 | CHI | 38-13 | 21.1 | 6 | 6 | 151 | 0 | 23.1% | 85% |
| 15 | LA | 6-12 | 10.1 | 4 | 7 | 61 | 0 | 22.6% | 96% |
| 16 | MIA | 17-29 | 18.6 | 8 | 9 | 106 | 0 | 24.3% | 98% |
| 17 | DET | 34-40 | 19.2 | 8 | 8 | 112 | 0 | 22.2% | 94% |
| 18 | ARI | 24-47 | 4.7 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 7.1% | 29% |
| Receptions | 78 |
| Targets | 94 |
| Receiving yards | 1,106 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 15.77 |
| Yards per target | 11.77 |
| Catch rate | 82.98% |
| Snap share | 86.6% |
| Target share | 20.74% |
| Air-yards share | 19.88% |
| WOPR | 0.449 |
| RACR | 1.491 |
| Average depth of target | 8.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.5 |
| Total YAC | 522 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 135.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.53 |
| Red-zone targets | 21 |
| Red-zone target share | 25.6% |
| End-zone target share | 33.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.89 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 8 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.11 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 1 of 13 |
| Yards per target | 1 of 13 |
| Target share | 5 of 13 |
| Air-yards share | 4 of 13 |
The offense threw it 533 times. He took 19.5% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jauan Jennings | 23.44% |
| George Kittle ← | 19.5% |
| Deebo Samuel | 16.8% |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 9.75% |
| Ricky Pearsall | 9.54% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3.94% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 13 | 85 | 16.28 | 11.73 | 21.61% |
| Brandon Allen | 1 | 6 | 20.2 | 13.67 | 23.1% |
| Joshua Dobbs | 1 | 3 | 4.7 | 9 | 7.1% |
5 of his 15 games were blowouts, 26.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.44 in those and 18.3 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 5 against DAL — 27.7 PPR on 4 targets and a 16% target share, in a game that finished 42-10. His worst was Week 6 against CLE at 1.1, on 2 targets, final score 17-19. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.7; in the 13 decided by more, 14.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 9.4 points per game. He scored 12.7, 28.2% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 30-7 | 4.9 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 21.4% | 69% |
| 2 | LA | 30-23 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 12.5% | 96% |
| 3 | NYG | 30-12 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 90 | 0 | 26.5% | 83% |
| 4 | ARI | 35-16 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4.8% | 96% |
| 5 | DAL | 42-10 | 27.7 | 3 | 4 | 67 | 3 | 16% | 79% |
| 6 | CLE | 17-19 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8.3% | 98% |
| 7 | MIN | 17-22 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 78 | 0 | 24.1% | 96% |
| 8 | CIN | 17-31 | 23.9 | 9 | 11 | 149 | 0 | 36.7% | 93% |
| 10 | JAX | 34-3 | 20.6 | 3 | 4 | 116 | 1 | 14.8% | 73% |
| 11 | TB | 27-14 | 22.9 | 8 | 9 | 89 | 1 | 36% | 97% |
| 12 | SEA | 31-13 | 4.9 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 16.7% | 100% |
| 13 | PHI | 42-19 | 10.8 | 4 | 6 | 68 | 0 | 24% | 93% |
| 14 | SEA | 28-16 | 16.6 | 3 | 5 | 76 | 1 | 18.5% | 93% |
| 15 | ARI | 45-29 | 7.4 | 2 | 4 | 54 | 0 | 15.4% | 86% |
| 16 | BAL | 19-33 | 19.6 | 7 | 10 | 126 | 0 | 22.7% | 89% |
| 17 | WAS | 27-10 | 5.9 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 14.8% | 91% |
| Receptions | 65 |
| Targets | 90 |
| Receiving yards | 1,020 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 2 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 12.7 |
| Yards per target | 11.33 |
| Catch rate | 72.22% |
| Yards per carry | 2 |
| Snap share | 89.5% |
| Target share | 19.57% |
| Air-yards share | 22.44% |
| WOPR | 0.451 |
| RACR | 1.287 |
| Average depth of target | 9.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.3 |
| Total YAC | 483 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 122.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.73 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.04 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.3% |
| End-zone target share | 20% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.86 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.14 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 5 of 14 |
| Yards per target | 1 of 14 |
| Target share | 8 of 14 |
| Air-yards share | 3 of 14 |
The offense threw it 491 times. He took 19.82% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Brandon Aiyuk | 23.13% |
| George Kittle ← | 19.82% |
| Deebo Samuel | 19.6% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 18.28% |
| Jauan Jennings | 7.27% |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 3.3% |
8 of his 16 games were blowouts, 45.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.59 in those and 6.7 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 16 against WAS — 30 PPR on 8 targets and a 38.1% target share, in a game that finished 37-20. His worst was Week 10 against LAC at 3.1, on 2 targets, final score 22-16. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.9; in the 11 decided by more, 13.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 9.4 points per game. He scored 13.37, 35% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | DEN | 10-11 | 6.8 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 17.2% | 91% |
| 4 | LA | 24-9 | 4.4 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 16% | 94% |
| 5 | CAR | 37-15 | 7.7 | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 | 20% | 88% |
| 6 | ATL | 14-28 | 16.3 | 8 | 10 | 83 | 0 | 24.4% | 98% |
| 7 | KC | 23-44 | 21.8 | 6 | 9 | 98 | 1 | 19.6% | 89% |
| 8 | LA | 31-14 | 12.9 | 3 | 5 | 39 | 1 | 19.2% | 100% |
| 10 | LAC | 22-16 | 3.1 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 7.1% | 100% |
| 11 | ARI | 38-10 | 24.4 | 4 | 6 | 84 | 2 | 20.7% | 74% |
| 12 | NO | 13-0 | 5.6 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 10.8% | 97% |
| 13 | MIA | 33-17 | 4.2 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 7.5% | 96% |
| 14 | TB | 35-7 | 6.8 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 22.7% | 79% |
| 15 | SEA | 21-13 | 25.3 | 4 | 5 | 93 | 2 | 19.2% | 84% |
| 16 | WAS | 37-20 | 30 | 6 | 8 | 120 | 2 | 38.1% | 90% |
| 17 | LV | 37-34 | 12.3 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 1 | 23.5% | 93% |
| 18 | ARI | 38-13 | 18.9 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 2 | 30% | 71% |
| Receptions | 60 |
| Targets | 86 |
| Receiving yards | 765 |
| Touchdowns | 11 |
| Points per game | 13.37 |
| Yards per target | 8.9 |
| Catch rate | 69.77% |
| Snap share | 89.6% |
| Target share | 19.73% |
| Air-yards share | 18.21% |
| WOPR | 0.423 |
| RACR | 1.511 |
| Average depth of target | 6.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.4 |
| Total YAC | 382 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 127.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.64 |
| Red-zone targets | 16 |
| Red-zone target share | 21.9% |
| End-zone target share | 41.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.33 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.67 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 2 of 11 |
| Yards per target | 1 of 11 |
| Target share | 6 of 11 |
| Air-yards share | 4 of 11 |
The offense threw it 512 times. He took 17.88% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Brandon Aiyuk | 23.7% |
| Deebo Samuel | 19.54% |
| George Kittle ← | 17.88% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 13.51% |
| Jauan Jennings | 11.64% |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 5.2% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 9 | 51 | 11.44 | 8.82 | 17.22% |
| Brock Purdy | 6 | 35 | 16.25 | 9 | 23.5% |
7 of his 15 games were blowouts, 61.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.5 in those and 11.88 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 13 against SEA — 39.6 PPR on 12 targets and a 40% target share, in a game that finished 23-30. His worst was Week 12 against MIN at 2.3, on 2 targets, final score 34-26. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.3; in the 5 decided by more, 13.9. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 11.1 points per game. He scored 14.14, 17.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 5 against 2.47 expected, a gap of 2.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 41-33 | 11.8 | 4 | 5 | 78 | 0 | 21.7% | 95% |
| 2 | PHI | 17-11 | 5.7 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 13.3% | 100% |
| 3 | GB | 28-30 | 17.1 | 7 | 9 | 92 | 0 | 23.7% | 100% |
| 4 | SEA | 21-28 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 40 | 0 | 25.6% | 92% |
| 9 | ARI | 17-31 | 20.1 | 6 | 8 | 101 | 1 | 20.5% | 73% |
| 10 | LA | 31-10 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 50 | 1 | 36.8% | 76% |
| 11 | JAX | 30-10 | 13.4 | 4 | 4 | 34 | 1 | 20% | 83% |
| 12 | MIN | 34-26 | 2.3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 7.7% | 93% |
| 13 | SEA | 23-30 | 39.6 | 9 | 12 | 181 | 2 | 40% | 93% |
| 14 | CIN | 26-23 | 34.1 | 13 | 15 | 151 | 1 | 40.5% | 96% |
| 15 | ATL | 31-13 | 15.3 | 6 | 6 | 93 | 0 | 25% | 96% |
| 16 | TEN | 17-20 | 4.1 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 8.6% | 100% |
| 17 | HOU | 23-7 | 4.5 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 8.7% | 95% |
| 18 | LA | 27-24 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 21.9% | 94% |
| Receptions | 71 |
| Targets | 94 |
| Receiving yards | 910 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 20 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 14.14 |
| Yards per target | 9.68 |
| Catch rate | 75.53% |
| Yards per carry | 6.67 |
| Snap share | 91.86% |
| Target share | 22.43% |
| Air-yards share | 22.46% |
| WOPR | 0.493 |
| RACR | 1.331 |
| Average depth of target | 8.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.5 |
| Total YAC | 450 |
| Broken tackles | 8 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 100 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.76 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.12 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.7% |
| End-zone target share | 22.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.47 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.53 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 4 of 15 |
| Yards per target | 1 of 15 |
| Target share | 3 of 15 |
| Air-yards share | 6 of 15 |
The offense threw it 514 times. He took 20.52% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Deebo Samuel | 26.42% |
| George Kittle ← | 20.52% |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 18.34% |
| Jauan Jennings | 8.3% |
| Jamycal Hasty | 6.33% |
| Mohamed Sanu | 5.24% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 13 | 92 | 14.88 | 9.58 | 23.48% |
| Trey Lance | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | 14.5 | 8.7% |
3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 22.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.9 in those and 14.3 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 4 against PHI — 40.1 PPR on 15 targets and a 36.6% target share, in a game that finished 20-25. His worst was Week 8 against SEA at 5.9, on 4 targets, final score 27-37. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 20.1; in the 3 decided by more, 8.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 13.9 points per game. He scored 15.64, 12.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 20-24 | 9.3 | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 15.6% | 98% |
| 4 | PHI | 20-25 | 40.1 | 15 | 15 | 183 | 1 | 36.6% | 99% |
| 5 | MIA | 17-43 | 8.4 | 4 | 8 | 44 | 0 | 22.9% | 100% |
| 6 | LA | 24-16 | 23.9 | 7 | 10 | 109 | 1 | 31.3% | 97% |
| 7 | NE | 33-6 | 10.5 | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 28% | 91% |
| 8 | SEA | 27-37 | 5.9 | 2 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 10% | 66% |
| 16 | ARI | 20-12 | 13.2 | 4 | 5 | 92 | 0 | 23.8% | 50% |
| 17 | SEA | 23-26 | 13.8 | 7 | 9 | 68 | 0 | 25.7% | 62% |
| Receptions | 48 |
| Targets | 63 |
| Receiving yards | 634 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 17 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 15.64 |
| Yards per target | 10.06 |
| Catch rate | 76.19% |
| Yards per carry | 8.5 |
| Snap share | 82.88% |
| Target share | 24.24% |
| Air-yards share | 27.08% |
| WOPR | 0.551 |
| RACR | 1.365 |
| Average depth of target | 7.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7 |
| Total YAC | 297 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 104.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.53 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.16 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 4.9% |
| End-zone target share | 5.3% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.27 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.27 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
The offense threw it 570 times. He took 12% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Brandon Aiyuk | 18.29% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 14.1% |
| George Kittle ← | 12% |
| Jordan Reed | 8.76% |
| Jerick McKinnon | 8.76% |
| Deebo Samuel | 8.38% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 3 | 22 | 14.57 | 9.45 | 24.97% |
| C.J. Beathard | 3 | 22 | 11.8 | 9.27 | 24.13% |
| Nick Mullens | 2 | 19 | 23 | 11.68 | 23.3% |
2 of his 8 games were blowouts, 15.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.45 in those and 20.06 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about George Kittle →