Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 10.58 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 152.1, usage worth 10.9.
29 years old · 6 seasons of experience · 2020 draft class
| SLEEPER | 164.7 |
| ESPN | 164.2 |
| YAHOO | 130.5 |
| UNDERDOG | 153.6 |
| CBS | 148.8 |
| FFA | 142 |
| Goes around | Round 13, pick 8 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE21 |
| Bye week | 8 |
| ADP standard deviation | 16.2 picks |
Our board has him at 123.4 points, 8.1 per game — 50.6 catches, 554 yards, 2.9 TDs. That is TE4, 141 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 7.4 points per game to a ceiling of 12.5, with the median at 8.1. Boom rate 53%, bust rate 9%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 152.1 on consensus and our board has him 141. We rank him 11.1 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
New Orleans Saints returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1. Tyler Shough at quarterback, Kellen Moore as head coach, Doug Nussmeier calling it. The offense projects to 34.1 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 25.9 rushes.
In: Jordyn Tyson (wr2), Bryce Lance (wr5), Barion Brown (wr6), Bub Means (wr7), Travis Etienne Jr. (rb1), Oscar Delp (te2). Out: Kevin Austin Jr (wr3), Brandin Cooks (wr4), Taysom Hill (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 12.2%, with a bear case of 12% and a bull case of 13.2% and a full range of 11% to 14.1%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Chris Olave | 22.1% |
| Jordyn Tyson | 18.6% |
| Juwan Johnson ← | 12.2% |
| Devaughn Vele | 8.3% |
| Oscar Delp | 7.1% |
| Barion Brown | 6.6% |
Key additions: signed RB Travis Etienne Jr in free agency on massive 4 year deal. Signed TE Noah Fant. Drafted TE oscar Delp. Drafted WR Jordyn Tyson 8th overall.
Key departures: No key departures
Notes: Saints draft Jordyn Tyson 8th overall. To start he will likely be the 1B in the offense behind Chris Olave. Hurts Olave potential, but Olave is highly talented WR. Shough surrounded with Weapons in New Orleans by signing Travis Etienne Jr. in free agency (lots of potential to be high producer). Alvin Kamara value is toast. Interested to see how Olave & Tyson split target share & if the rest of the offense other than Etienne holds fantasy value. Vele is a slept on and talented WR that could also break out in 2026. His breakout to slow down the Jordyn Tyson full breakout year 1.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Tyler Shough returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.4 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 34.1 att/g.
25 historical comps for TEs age ~?, prior share 15.8%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 16.1%, p25-p75 [14.7%, 18.6%], tails [11.7%, 21.2%]. Closest comps: T.J. Hockenson 2020→2021 (DET: 17.8%→20.5%); Tyler Higbee 2021→2022 (LA: 15.3%→21.6%); Evan Engram 2022→2023 (JAX: 17.2%→23.5%). Adjustment: -5% from td_luck_breakout (TD regression risk)
self-anchored 58% to own 15.8% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 16.1%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: NO rates 21.4 against a league average of 23, 1.6 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +0.9 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | -0.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.6 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +5.4 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3 | Foster Moreau | +4.6 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +63.9% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, TEs crash the following year 47% of the time (hold 53%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 47% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Conklin | 2023 | 7.2 | 71% | +24.5% |
| Dalton Schultz | 2023 | 10 | 70% | -17.2% |
| Will Dissly | 2024 | 7.3 | 64% | -27.9% |
| Dalton Schultz | 2024 | 7 | 63% | +11.1% |
| Tyler Conklin | 2024 | 7.6 | 63% | -29.8% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Height | 6′4″ |
| Weight | 230 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.58s |
| Vertical | 33″ |
| Broad jump | 124″ |
| 3-cone | 6.94s |
| Shuttle | 4.37s |
| Career PPR per game | 7.9 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.7 |
| Boom rate | 24.6% |
| Bust rate | 26.2% |
| Games missed per season | 0.7 |
| Injury history | Ankle, Calf |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.03 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 10 against CAR — 19.2 PPR on 4 targets and a 15.4% target share, in a game that finished 17-7. His worst was Week 6 against NE at 1.5, on 2 targets, final score 19-25. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.7; in the 9 decided by more, 11.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 10.9 points per game. He scored 10.58, 2.9% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 13-20 | 15.6 | 8 | 11 | 76 | 0 | 26.8% | 99% |
| 2 | SF | 21-26 | 15.9 | 5 | 9 | 49 | 1 | 26.5% | 96% |
| 3 | SEA | 13-44 | 11.1 | 6 | 8 | 51 | 0 | 19.5% | 90% |
| 4 | BUF | 19-31 | 5.8 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 12% | 90% |
| 5 | NYG | 26-14 | 3.7 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 12.9% | 85% |
| 6 | NE | 19-25 | 1.5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 7.7% | 71% |
| 7 | CHI | 14-26 | 12.9 | 5 | 7 | 79 | 0 | 22.6% | 71% |
| 8 | TB | 3-23 | 10.3 | 5 | 8 | 53 | 0 | 16% | 76% |
| 9 | LA | 10-34 | 12.1 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 1 | 16.7% | 71% |
| 10 | CAR | 17-7 | 19.2 | 4 | 4 | 92 | 1 | 15.4% | 50% |
| 12 | ATL | 10-24 | 10.6 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 16.3% | 78% |
| 13 | MIA | 17-21 | 8.9 | 5 | 9 | 39 | 0 | 26.5% | 72% |
| 14 | TB | 24-20 | 7.8 | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 20% | 53% |
| 15 | CAR | 20-17 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 12.9% | 61% |
| 16 | NYJ | 29-6 | 16.9 | 8 | 9 | 89 | 0 | 19.1% | 65% |
| 17 | TEN | 34-26 | 13.5 | 4 | 4 | 95 | 0 | 14.8% | 72% |
| 18 | ATL | 17-19 | 7.1 | 3 | 5 | 61 | 0 | 14.7% | 75% |
| Receptions | 77 |
| Targets | 102 |
| Receiving yards | 889 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 10.58 |
| Yards per target | 8.72 |
| Catch rate | 75.49% |
| Snap share | 75% |
| Target share | 17.67% |
| Air-yards share | 15.54% |
| WOPR | 0.375 |
| RACR | 1.433 |
| Average depth of target | 7.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.8 |
| Total YAC | 362 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 111.1 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.07 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 15.7% |
| End-zone target share | 13% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.34 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.66 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 9 of 13 |
| Yards per target | 2 of 13 |
| Target share | 9 of 13 |
| Air-yards share | 7 of 13 |
The offense threw it 591 times. He took 18.12% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Chris Olave | 27.71% |
| Juwan Johnson ← | 18.12% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 11.72% |
| Alvin Kamara | 6.93% |
| Devaughn Vele | 6.93% |
| Brandin Cooks | 4.44% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 10 | 58 | 11.34 | 9.9 | 17.24% |
| Spencer Rattler | 7 | 44 | 9.5 | 7.16 | 18.29% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 28% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.6 in those and 9.66 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 14 against NYG — 15 PPR on 5 targets and a 16.1% target share, in a game that finished 14-11. His worst was Week 15 against WAS at 3.2, on 3 targets, final score 19-20. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.8; in the 8 decided by more, 8.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 7.8 points per game. He scored 8.19, 5.1% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 1.36 expected, a gap of 1.6.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 47-10 | 10.6 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 12.5% | 35% |
| 4 | ATL | 24-26 | 3.3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 8.3% | 68% |
| 5 | KC | 13-26 | 8.1 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 15.6% | 79% |
| 6 | TB | 27-51 | 7.8 | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 7.9% | 77% |
| 7 | DEN | 10-33 | 4.8 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 15.4% | 73% |
| 8 | LAC | 8-26 | 7.8 | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 | 10.5% | 44% |
| 9 | CAR | 22-23 | 6.1 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 | 7.1% | 65% |
| 10 | ATL | 20-17 | 4.2 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 14.3% | 58% |
| 11 | CLE | 35-14 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 1 | 10.7% | 57% |
| 13 | LA | 14-21 | 8.6 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 20.6% | 70% |
| 14 | NYG | 14-11 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 50 | 1 | 16.1% | 72% |
| 15 | WAS | 19-20 | 3.2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10.3% | 73% |
| 16 | GB | 0-34 | 4.7 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 7.1% | 73% |
| 17 | LV | 10-25 | 12.6 | 6 | 10 | 66 | 0 | 29.4% | 77% |
| 18 | TB | 19-27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 80 | 0 | 17.9% | 79% |
| Receptions | 50 |
| Targets | 66 |
| Receiving yards | 548 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 8.19 |
| Yards per target | 8.3 |
| Catch rate | 75.76% |
| Snap share | 66.67% |
| Target share | 13.58% |
| Air-yards share | 13.23% |
| WOPR | 0.297 |
| RACR | 1.269 |
| Average depth of target | 8.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.7 |
| Total YAC | 212 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 108.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.12 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 14% |
| End-zone target share | 11.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.36 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.64 |
The offense threw it 551 times. He took 12.87% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Alvin Kamara | 17.35% |
| Juwan Johnson ← | 12.87% |
| Chris Olave | 8.58% |
| Foster Moreau | 8.38% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 7.99% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 6.82% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 8 | 31 | 8.49 | 8.03 | 13.15% |
| Spencer Rattler | 7 | 35 | 7.84 | 8.54 | 14.07% |
6 of his 15 games were blowouts, 38.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.95 in those and 7.77 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 17 against TB — 23 PPR on 12 targets and a 35.3% target share, in a game that finished 23-13. His worst was Week 13 against DET at 0, on 3 targets, final score 28-33. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.1; in the 6 decided by more, 9.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 7.8 points per game. He scored 7.52, 4.1% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 16-15 | 6.6 | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 15.2% | 75% |
| 2 | CAR | 20-17 | 3.3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 8.8% | 81% |
| 3 | GB | 17-18 | 3.2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 11.8% | 70% |
| 8 | IND | 38-27 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6.9% | 61% |
| 9 | CHI | 24-17 | 13.9 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 1 | 15.6% | 75% |
| 10 | MIN | 19-27 | 1.2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7.5% | 76% |
| 12 | ATL | 15-24 | 8.5 | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 | 18.9% | 74% |
| 13 | DET | 28-33 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10.3% | 57% |
| 14 | CAR | 28-6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 13.6% | 40% |
| 15 | NYG | 24-6 | 11.8 | 2 | 2 | 38 | 1 | 7.1% | 44% |
| 16 | LA | 22-30 | 14.8 | 4 | 7 | 48 | 1 | 17.5% | 72% |
| 17 | TB | 23-13 | 23 | 8 | 12 | 90 | 1 | 35.3% | 71% |
| 18 | ATL | 48-17 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 12% | 46% |
| Receptions | 37 |
| Targets | 59 |
| Receiving yards | 368 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 7.52 |
| Yards per target | 6.24 |
| Catch rate | 62.71% |
| Snap share | 64.77% |
| Target share | 13.88% |
| Air-yards share | 13.58% |
| WOPR | 0.304 |
| RACR | 0.927 |
| Average depth of target | 7.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6 |
| Total YAC | 145 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 74.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.35 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 11.8% |
| End-zone target share | 9.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.09 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.91 |
The offense threw it 606 times. He took 10.24% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Chris Olave | 23.96% |
| Alvin Kamara | 14.93% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 13.02% |
| Michael Thomas | 11.11% |
| Juwan Johnson ← | 10.24% |
| Taysom Hill | 6.94% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 12 | 56 | 8.05 | 6.54 | 14.42% |
| Jameis Winston | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | 0.67 | 7.5% |
3 of his 13 games were blowouts, 22.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.27 in those and 6.14 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 15 against ATL — 22.7 PPR on 6 targets and a 31.6% target share, in a game that finished 21-18. His worst was Week 12 against SF at 0, on 2 targets, final score 0-13. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.5; in the 6 decided by more, 8.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7.1 points per game. He scored 8.43, 18.5% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 5 against 2.25 expected, a gap of 2.8.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 27-26 | 6.3 | 2 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 15.6% | 74% |
| 2 | TB | 10-20 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 40 | 0 | 17.5% | 78% |
| 3 | CAR | 14-22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.6% | 68% |
| 4 | MIN | 25-28 | 6.3 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 14.3% | 48% |
| 5 | SEA | 39-32 | 2.3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 8% | 57% |
| 6 | CIN | 26-30 | 8.1 | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 19.4% | 78% |
| 7 | ARI | 34-42 | 20.2 | 5 | 5 | 32 | 2 | 10.9% | 74% |
| 8 | LV | 24-0 | 3.4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 13.3% | 73% |
| 9 | BAL | 13-27 | 12.2 | 2 | 2 | 42 | 1 | 7.1% | 75% |
| 10 | PIT | 10-20 | 15.4 | 5 | 7 | 44 | 1 | 25% | 66% |
| 11 | LA | 27-20 | 13.7 | 3 | 4 | 47 | 1 | 14.8% | 63% |
| 12 | SF | 0-13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.7% | 47% |
| 15 | ATL | 21-18 | 22.7 | 4 | 6 | 67 | 2 | 31.6% | 51% |
| 16 | CLE | 17-10 | 1.9 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 14.3% | 50% |
| 17 | PHI | 20-10 | 11.2 | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 | 30.4% | 67% |
| 18 | CAR | 7-10 | 3.1 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 4% | 68% |
| Receptions | 42 |
| Targets | 65 |
| Receiving yards | 508 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 8.43 |
| Yards per target | 7.82 |
| Catch rate | 64.62% |
| Snap share | 64.81% |
| Target share | 14.72% |
| Air-yards share | 15.98% |
| WOPR | 0.332 |
| RACR | 1.151 |
| Average depth of target | 9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.8 |
| Total YAC | 182 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 111.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.99 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.7% |
| End-zone target share | 24% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.25 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.75 |
The offense threw it 512 times. He took 13.27% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Chris Olave | 24.29% |
| Alvin Kamara | 15.71% |
| Juwan Johnson ← | 13.27% |
| Jarvis Landry | 7.96% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 6.94% |
| Marquez Callaway | 6.53% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 13 | 52 | 9.27 | 8.17 | 15.37% |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 13 | 4.77 | 6.38 | 11.9% |
1 of his 16 games were blowouts, 2.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.4 in those and 8.46 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 1 against GB — 17.1 PPR on 3 targets and a 15% target share, in a game that finished 38-3. His worst was Week 15 against TB at 0, on 0 targets, final score 9-0. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.7; in the 9 decided by more, 3.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 3.2 points per game. He scored 4.07, 37.8% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 1.8 expected, a gap of 2.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 38-3 | 17.1 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 15% | 19% |
| 2 | CAR | 7-26 | 3.3 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 14.3% | 41% |
| 3 | NE | 28-13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 13% |
| 4 | NYG | 21-27 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 11.5% | 21% |
| 5 | WAS | 33-22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.6% | 11% |
| 7 | SEA | 13-10 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3.1% | 27% |
| 8 | TB | 36-27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.9% | 22% |
| 10 | TEN | 21-23 | 5.6 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 8.6% | 15% |
| 13 | DAL | 17-27 | 3.7 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 2.4% | 34% |
| 14 | NYJ | 30-9 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 4.8% | 33% |
| 15 | TB | 9-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 36% |
| 17 | CAR | 18-10 | 1.4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8.7% | 47% |
| 18 | ATL | 30-20 | 7.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 8.7% | 15% |
| Receptions | 13 |
| Targets | 22 |
| Receiving yards | 159 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 4.07 |
| Yards per target | 7.23 |
| Catch rate | 59.09% |
| Snap share | 25.69% |
| Target share | 6.82% |
| Air-yards share | 9.23% |
| WOPR | 0.166 |
| RACR | 1.024 |
| Average depth of target | 10.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9 |
| Total YAC | 42 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 102.1 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.12 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.4% |
| End-zone target share | 16.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.8 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.2 |
The offense threw it 503 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Marquez Callaway | 17.83% |
| Alvin Kamara | 14.23% |
| Deonte Harty | 12.53% |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 10.62% |
| Adam Trautman | 9.13% |
| Mark Ingram | 5.52% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 6 | 12 | 5.37 | 6 | 8.75% |
| unknown | 4 | 4 | 1.9 | 11.5 | 3.97% |
| Trevor Siemian | 3 | 6 | 4.37 | 6.83 | 6.73% |
3 of his 13 games were blowouts, 43.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.63 in those and 4.7 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 16 against MIN — 2.9 PPR on 1 targets and a 3.6% target share, in a game that finished 52-33. His worst was Week 15 against KC at 0, on 4 targets, final score 29-32. Across 5 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 5 times.
His usage that season was worth 3.5 points per game. He scored 1.58, 55.4% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | CHI | 26-23 | 1.5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 7.3% | 86% |
| 14 | PHI | 21-24 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2.7% | 8% |
| 15 | KC | 29-32 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12.1% | 76% |
| 16 | MIN | 52-33 | 2.9 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 3.6% | 31% |
| 17 | CAR | 33-7 | 1.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3.4% | 23% |
| Receptions | 4 |
| Targets | 10 |
| Receiving yards | 39 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 1.58 |
| Yards per target | 3.9 |
| Catch rate | 40% |
| Snap share | 44.8% |
| Target share | 5.82% |
| Air-yards share | 6.02% |
| WOPR | 0.128 |
| RACR | 0.796 |
| Average depth of target | 7.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.8 |
| Total YAC | 20 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 51.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.8 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.1% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.14 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.14 |
The offense threw it 522 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Alvin Kamara | 21.23% |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 16.27% |
| Jared Cook | 11.9% |
| Michael Thomas | 10.91% |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 9.92% |
| Marquez Callaway | 5.36% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 4 | 9 | 1.45 | 3.11 | 6.6% |
| unknown | 1 | 1 | 2.1 | 11 | 2.7% |
2 of his 5 games were blowouts, 54.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.15 in those and 1.2 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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