Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 19.6 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 3.8, usage worth 19.7.
26 years old · 5 seasons of experience · 2021 draft class
| SLEEPER | 3 |
| ESPN | 4.7 |
| YAHOO | 3.3 |
| UNDERDOG | 3 |
| CBS | 4 |
| FFA | 3 |
| Goes around | Round 1, pick 4 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR1 |
| Bye week | 6 |
| ADP standard deviation | 0.8 picks |
Our board has him at 344.4 points, 21 per game — 117.8 catches, 1,545 yards, 11.5 TDs. That is WR1, 3 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 19.2 points per game to a ceiling of 32.7, with the median at 21. Boom rate 56%, bust rate 9%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 3.8 on consensus and our board has him 3. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
The pick at 1.03/1.04 in full PPR - elite. Just don't pair him with Chase Brown or other Bengals: a Burrow injury would torch two of your top picks (correlated downside). Build away from Cincinnati after taking him.
buy · high conviction · 2026-06-14Cincinnati Bengals returns 6 of 6 continuity slots — the whole offense is intact. Joe Burrow at quarterback, Zac Taylor as head coach, Dan Pitcher calling it. The offense projects to 36.4 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 23.6 rushes.
In: Colbie Young (wr4), Mitch Tinsley (wr5), Kendric Pryor (wr7). Out: Mitchell Tinsley (wr4), Noah Fant (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 26.9%, with a bear case of 26.4% and a bull case of 29% and a full range of 25.2% to 29.6%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Ja'Marr Chase ← | 26.9% |
| Tee Higgins | 19.4% |
| Chase Brown | 11.8% |
| Mike Gesicki | 9.6% |
| Andrei Iosivas | 9.1% |
| Colbie Young | 6% |
Key additions: Retain G Dalton Risner & OT Orlando Brown Jr. Added C Connor Lew in the 4th round from Auburn & WR Colbie Young from Georgia in the 4th round.
Key departures: No key departures
Notes: Burrow and the Bengals look to get back on track & healthy for the 2026 season. Chase & Higgins are set to have fantastic years if the team is healthy. Chase Brown should see his fantasy value stay high in 2026 with Burrow back but it remains to be seen if he is the long term RB solution for Cincinatti. TE play does not typically produce consistent fantasy relevance. Bengals have added heavily on defense this offseason & should be more competitive. Worth note, if the Bengals do not play well this season HC Zac Taylor is going to be fired.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Joe Burrow returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (37.7 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 36.4 att/g.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~26, prior share 29.6%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 27.2%, p25-p75 [24.4%, 30.7%], tails [21.3%, 32.2%]. Closest comps: Stefon Diggs 2022→2023 (BUF: 27.2%→29.6%); Amon-Ra St. Brown 2024→2025 (DET: 27.9%→31.7%); Ja'Marr Chase 2024→2025 (CIN: 27.1%→32.1%). Adjustment: -6% from role_decline (real opportunity collapse)
self-anchored 58% to own 29.6% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 27.2%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: CIN rates 25.8 against a league average of 23, 2.9 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +3.3 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +4.3 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -3.9 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.5 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3 | Tee Higgins | +2.3 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved 0% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 2024 | 18.7 | 86% | -6.6% |
| Davante Adams | 2024 | 17.2 | 79% | +34.1% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 2024 | 18.6 | 66% | +12.8% |
| A.J. Brown | 2023 | 17 | 64% | +12.8% |
| A.J. Brown | 2024 | 16.7 | 59% | -10.3% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2021, round 1, pick 5 by CIN |
| College | LSU |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 6′0″ |
| Weight | 201 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.34s |
| Vertical | 41″ |
| Broad jump | 132″ |
| 3-cone | 6.96s |
| Shuttle | 3.99s |
| Career PPR per game | 20.2 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 25.4% |
| Bust rate | 15.9% |
| Games missed per season | 0.8 |
| Injury history | Hip, Shoulder |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.41 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 7 against PIT — 38.1 PPR on 23 targets and a 51.1% target share, in a game that finished 33-31. His worst was Week 1 against CLE at 4.6, on 5 targets, final score 17-16. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 8 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 21.6; in the 9 decided by more, 18. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 19.7 points per game. He scored 19.6, 0.7% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 7 against 4.85 expected, a gap of 2.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 17-16 | 4.6 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 21.7% | 87% |
| 2 | JAX | 31-27 | 36.5 | 14 | 16 | 165 | 1 | 37.2% | 96% |
| 3 | MIN | 10-48 | 8.9 | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 | 23.1% | 86% |
| 4 | DEN | 3-28 | 7.3 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 0 | 36.4% | 96% |
| 5 | DET | 24-37 | 29 | 6 | 10 | 110 | 2 | 25% | 92% |
| 6 | GB | 18-27 | 25.1 | 10 | 12 | 94 | 1 | 30% | 100% |
| 7 | PIT | 33-31 | 38.1 | 16 | 23 | 161 | 1 | 51.1% | 99% |
| 8 | NYJ | 38-39 | 21.1 | 12 | 19 | 91 | 0 | 57.6% | 98% |
| 9 | CHI | 42-47 | 17.1 | 6 | 8 | 111 | 0 | 17.8% | 99% |
| 11 | PIT | 12-34 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 0 | 25.6% | 97% |
| 13 | BAL | 32-14 | 18 | 7 | 14 | 110 | 0 | 31.8% | 99% |
| 14 | BUF | 34-39 | 10.2 | 5 | 8 | 44 | 0 | 22.2% | 100% |
| 15 | BAL | 0-24 | 23.2 | 10 | 16 | 132 | 0 | 44.4% | 97% |
| 16 | MIA | 45-21 | 19.9 | 9 | 11 | 109 | 0 | 35.5% | 87% |
| 17 | ARI | 37-14 | 25 | 7 | 9 | 60 | 2 | 27.3% | 77% |
| 18 | CLE | 18-20 | 23.6 | 8 | 10 | 96 | 1 | 26.3% | 100% |
| Receptions | 125 |
| Targets | 185 |
| Receiving yards | 1,412 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 14 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 19.6 |
| Yards per target | 7.63 |
| Catch rate | 67.57% |
| Yards per carry | 4.67 |
| Snap share | 94.38% |
| Target share | 32.06% |
| Air-yards share | 36.59% |
| WOPR | 0.737 |
| RACR | 1.03 |
| Average depth of target | 8.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.2 |
| Total YAC | 640 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 93.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.59 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.01 |
| Red-zone targets | 22 |
| Red-zone target share | 27.8% |
| End-zone target share | 25.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.85 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 7 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.15 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 3 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 25 of 44 |
| Target share | 2 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 11 of 44 |
The offense threw it 640 times. He took 30.48% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Ja'Marr Chase ← | 30.48% |
| Tee Higgins | 16.14% |
| Chase Brown | 14.5% |
| Andrei Iosivas | 9.56% |
| Mike Gesicki | 6.92% |
| Noah Fant | 6.75% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 7 | 73 | 17.79 | 7.9 | 29.89% |
| Joe Flacco | 5 | 72 | 21.48 | 6.76 | 36.42% |
| Jake Browning | 4 | 40 | 20.42 | 8.7 | 30.43% |
7 of his 16 games were blowouts, 34.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.47 in those and 21.6 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 10 against BAL — 55.4 PPR on 17 targets and a 31.5% target share, in a game that finished 34-35. His worst was Week 2 against KC at 7.5, on 5 targets, final score 25-26. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 9 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 27.3; in the 6 decided by more, 17. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 18.2 points per game. He scored 23.71, 30% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 8 against 10.21 expected, a gap of -2.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 10-16 | 12.2 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 0 | 20.7% | 84% |
| 2 | KC | 25-26 | 7.5 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 14.7% | 92% |
| 3 | WAS | 33-38 | 29.8 | 6 | 7 | 118 | 2 | 18.4% | 98% |
| 4 | CAR | 34-24 | 17.5 | 3 | 6 | 85 | 1 | 20% | 79% |
| 5 | BAL | 38-41 | 41.3 | 10 | 12 | 193 | 2 | 30.8% | 88% |
| 6 | NYG | 17-7 | 12.2 | 5 | 6 | 72 | 0 | 26.1% | 92% |
| 7 | CLE | 21-14 | 17.6 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 1 | 25% | 87% |
| 8 | PHI | 17-37 | 20.4 | 9 | 11 | 54 | 1 | 30.6% | 95% |
| 9 | LV | 41-24 | 11.3 | 7 | 11 | 43 | 0 | 29.7% | 88% |
| 10 | BAL | 34-35 | 55.4 | 11 | 17 | 264 | 3 | 31.5% | 94% |
| 11 | LAC | 27-34 | 26.5 | 7 | 13 | 75 | 2 | 28.3% | 99% |
| 13 | PIT | 38-44 | 20.6 | 6 | 9 | 86 | 1 | 24.3% | 97% |
| 14 | DAL | 27-20 | 45.1 | 14 | 18 | 177 | 2 | 41.9% | 93% |
| 15 | TEN | 37-27 | 18.4 | 9 | 11 | 94 | 0 | 31.4% | 97% |
| 16 | CLE | 24-6 | 22.4 | 6 | 8 | 97 | 1 | 28.6% | 89% |
| 17 | DEN | 30-24 | 19.2 | 9 | 15 | 102 | 0 | 30.6% | 98% |
| 18 | PIT | 19-17 | 25.6 | 10 | 14 | 96 | 1 | 30.4% | 99% |
| Receptions | 127 |
| Targets | 175 |
| Receiving yards | 1,708 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 32 |
| Touchdowns | 17 |
| Points per game | 23.71 |
| Yards per target | 9.76 |
| Catch rate | 72.57% |
| Yards per carry | 10.67 |
| Snap share | 92.29% |
| Target share | 27.24% |
| Air-yards share | 31.85% |
| WOPR | 0.631 |
| RACR | 1.216 |
| Average depth of target | 8.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.3 |
| Total YAC | 787 |
| Broken tackles | 11 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 118.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.53 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.12 |
| Red-zone targets | 36 |
| Red-zone target share | 29.8% |
| End-zone target share | 31.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 10.21 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 8 |
| Receiving TD luck | -2.21 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 1 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 6 of 51 |
| Target share | 9 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 22 of 51 |
The offense threw it 652 times. He took 27.91% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Ja'Marr Chase ← | 27.91% |
| Tee Higgins | 17.38% |
| Mike Gesicki | 13.24% |
| Chase Brown | 10.37% |
| Andrei Iosivas | 9.73% |
| Zack Moss | 4.31% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 13.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.03 in those and 27.35 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 5 against ARI — 52.2 PPR on 19 targets and a 43.2% target share, in a game that finished 34-20. His worst was Week 18 against CLE at 5.9, on 6 targets, final score 31-14. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.7; in the 7 decided by more, 17.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 15.6 points per game. He scored 16.42, 5.4% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 5.41 expected, a gap of -1.4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 3-24 | 9.1 | 5 | 9 | 39 | 0 | 29% | 96% |
| 2 | BAL | 24-27 | 8.1 | 5 | 8 | 31 | 0 | 20.5% | 98% |
| 3 | LA | 19-16 | 26.1 | 12 | 15 | 141 | 0 | 32.6% | 96% |
| 4 | TEN | 3-27 | 14.3 | 7 | 9 | 73 | 0 | 33.3% | 94% |
| 5 | ARI | 34-20 | 52.2 | 15 | 19 | 192 | 3 | 43.2% | 93% |
| 6 | SEA | 17-13 | 14 | 6 | 13 | 80 | 0 | 37.1% | 91% |
| 8 | SF | 31-17 | 25.2 | 10 | 12 | 100 | 1 | 37.5% | 89% |
| 9 | BUF | 24-18 | 8.1 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 0 | 19% | 90% |
| 10 | HOU | 27-30 | 23.4 | 5 | 6 | 124 | 1 | 15.4% | 84% |
| 11 | BAL | 20-34 | 9.2 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 22.6% | 98% |
| 12 | PIT | 10-16 | 12.1 | 4 | 6 | 81 | 0 | 24% | 88% |
| 13 | JAX | 34-31 | 31.62 | 11 | 12 | 149 | 1 | 32.4% | 96% |
| 14 | IND | 34-14 | 5.9 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 16% | 87% |
| 15 | MIN | 27-24 | 10.4 | 4 | 4 | 64 | 0 | 10% | 71% |
| 17 | KC | 17-25 | 7.1 | 3 | 7 | 41 | 0 | 22.6% | 73% |
| 18 | CLE | 31-14 | 5.9 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 21.4% | 48% |
| Receptions | 100 |
| Targets | 145 |
| Receiving yards | 1,216 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | -6 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 16.42 |
| Yards per target | 8.39 |
| Catch rate | 68.97% |
| Yards per carry | -2 |
| Snap share | 87% |
| Target share | 26.04% |
| Air-yards share | 34.54% |
| WOPR | 0.634 |
| RACR | 1.154 |
| Average depth of target | 8.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.8 |
| Total YAC | 541 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 104.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.78 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.17 |
| Red-zone targets | 21 |
| Red-zone target share | 25% |
| End-zone target share | 35.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.41 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.41 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 11 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 24 of 51 |
| Target share | 14 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 19 of 51 |
The offense threw it 615 times. He took 24.53% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Ja'Marr Chase ← | 24.53% |
| Tyler Boyd | 16.58% |
| Tee Higgins | 12.86% |
| Joe Mixon | 10.83% |
| Tanner Hudson | 8.46% |
| Trenton Irwin | 5.41% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 10 | 106 | 18.97 | 7.86 | 29.02% |
| Jake Browning | 6 | 39 | 12.17 | 9.82 | 21.07% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 13.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.8 in those and 15.66 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 7 against ATL — 33 PPR on 11 targets and a 26.2% target share, in a game that finished 35-17. His worst was Week 2 against DAL at 10.8, on 9 targets, final score 17-20. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19.1; in the 6 decided by more, 21.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 18.5 points per game. He scored 20.2, 7.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 20-23 | 28.9 | 10 | 16 | 129 | 1 | 30.2% | 100% |
| 2 | DAL | 17-20 | 10.8 | 5 | 9 | 54 | 0 | 25.7% | 96% |
| 3 | NYJ | 27-12 | 12.7 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 1 | 28.6% | 87% |
| 4 | MIA | 27-15 | 12.1 | 4 | 6 | 81 | 0 | 18.8% | 94% |
| 5 | BAL | 17-19 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 50 | 0 | 35.3% | 100% |
| 6 | NO | 30-26 | 32.2 | 7 | 10 | 132 | 2 | 27.8% | 98% |
| 7 | ATL | 35-17 | 33 | 8 | 11 | 130 | 2 | 26.2% | 93% |
| 13 | KC | 27-24 | 16.7 | 7 | 8 | 97 | 0 | 25.8% | 82% |
| 14 | CLE | 23-10 | 28.5 | 10 | 15 | 119 | 1 | 46.9% | 94% |
| 15 | TB | 34-23 | 19 | 7 | 13 | 60 | 1 | 34.2% | 91% |
| 16 | NE | 22-18 | 13.9 | 8 | 11 | 79 | 0 | 22.4% | 98% |
| 18 | BAL | 27-16 | 22.6 | 8 | 13 | 86 | 1 | 32.5% | 94% |
| Receptions | 87 |
| Targets | 134 |
| Receiving yards | 1,046 |
| Carries | 5 |
| Rushing yards | 8 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 20.2 |
| Yards per target | 7.81 |
| Catch rate | 64.93% |
| Yards per carry | 1.6 |
| Snap share | 93.92% |
| Target share | 29.53% |
| Air-yards share | 38.68% |
| WOPR | 0.712 |
| RACR | 0.897 |
| Average depth of target | 9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7 |
| Total YAC | 438 |
| Broken tackles | 10 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 98.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.53 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.5 |
| Red-zone targets | 30 |
| Red-zone target share | 28.6% |
| End-zone target share | 34.3% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 6.64 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.64 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.06 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 3 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 30 of 51 |
| Target share | 5 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 7 of 51 |
The offense threw it 610 times. He took 22.56% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Ja'Marr Chase ← | 22.56% |
| Tee Higgins | 18.35% |
| Tyler Boyd | 13.8% |
| Joe Mixon | 12.63% |
| Hayden Hurst | 11.45% |
| Samaje Perine | 8.59% |
1 of his 12 games were blowouts, 13.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 33 in those and 19.08 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 17 against KC — 55.6 PPR on 12 targets and a 31.6% target share, in a game that finished 34-31. His worst was Week 15 against DEN at 1.3, on 4 targets, final score 15-10. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19.5; in the 8 decided by more, 16.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 13.4 points per game. He scored 17.92, 33% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 4.79 expected, a gap of 1.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 27-24 | 20.9 | 5 | 7 | 101 | 1 | 26.9% | 90% |
| 2 | CHI | 17-20 | 13.4 | 2 | 4 | 54 | 1 | 13.8% | 93% |
| 3 | PIT | 24-10 | 22.5 | 4 | 5 | 65 | 2 | 27.8% | 83% |
| 4 | JAX | 24-21 | 13.7 | 6 | 9 | 77 | 0 | 28.1% | 79% |
| 5 | GB | 22-25 | 27.9 | 6 | 10 | 159 | 1 | 27% | 91% |
| 6 | DET | 34-11 | 13.7 | 4 | 6 | 97 | 0 | 20.7% | 79% |
| 7 | BAL | 41-17 | 34.1 | 8 | 10 | 201 | 1 | 27.8% | 84% |
| 8 | NYJ | 31-34 | 13.1 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 1 | 26.5% | 95% |
| 9 | CLE | 16-41 | 8.9 | 6 | 13 | 49 | 0 | 31.7% | 95% |
| 11 | LV | 32-13 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 1 | 21.4% | 92% |
| 12 | PIT | 41-10 | 6.9 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 12.5% | 76% |
| 13 | LAC | 22-41 | 10.2 | 5 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 21.1% | 96% |
| 14 | SF | 23-26 | 25.3 | 5 | 8 | 77 | 2 | 23.5% | 97% |
| 15 | DEN | 15-10 | 1.3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 19% | 96% |
| 16 | BAL | 41-21 | 19.5 | 7 | 10 | 125 | 0 | 21.7% | 91% |
| 17 | KC | 34-31 | 55.6 | 11 | 12 | 266 | 3 | 31.6% | 91% |
| 18 | CLE | 16-21 | 4.6 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 13.8% | 9% |
| Receptions | 81 |
| Targets | 128 |
| Receiving yards | 1,455 |
| Carries | 7 |
| Rushing yards | 21 |
| Touchdowns | 13 |
| Points per game | 17.92 |
| Yards per target | 11.37 |
| Catch rate | 63.28% |
| Yards per carry | 3 |
| Snap share | 84.53% |
| Target share | 23.23% |
| Air-yards share | 36.49% |
| WOPR | 0.604 |
| RACR | 1.168 |
| Average depth of target | 12.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.9 |
| Total YAC | 651 |
| Broken tackles | 8 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 116.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.84 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.13 |
| Red-zone targets | 18 |
| Red-zone target share | 22.2% |
| End-zone target share | 34.3% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.79 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.21 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.19 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 5 of 48 |
| Yards per target | 2 of 48 |
| Target share | 23 of 48 |
| Air-yards share | 7 of 48 |
The offense threw it 555 times. He took 23.7% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Ja'Marr Chase ← | 23.7% |
| Tee Higgins | 20.37% |
| Tyler Boyd | 17.41% |
| C.J. Uzomah | 11.67% |
| Joe Mixon | 8.89% |
| Samaje Perine | 5.74% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 16 | 124 | 18.75 | 11.52 | 23.82% |
| Brandon Allen | 1 | 4 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 13.8% |
7 of his 17 games were blowouts, 34.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.19 in those and 19.53 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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