Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 16.62 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 18.5, usage worth 16.8.
26 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| SLEEPER | 17.3 |
| ESPN | 25.9 |
| YAHOO | 16.7 |
| UNDERDOG | 15 |
| CBS | 14.2 |
| FFA | 15 |
| Goes around | Round 2, pick 7 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB9 |
| Bye week | 6 |
| ADP standard deviation | 5.1 picks |
Our board has him at 249 points, 15.6 per game — 981 rushing yards, 6.6 rushing TDs, 52.2 catches. That is RB2, 15 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 12.9 points per game to a ceiling of 21.9, with the median at 15.6. Boom rate 41%, bust rate 17%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 18.5 on consensus and our board has him 15. We rank him 3.5 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
Best blend of safety + upside among the round-2/3 RBs - locked volume, no touch competition, explosive. Only knock is stacking him with Ja'Marr Chase (Burrow-injury correlation); if you don't have Chase, he's a clean pick.
buy · high conviction · 2026-06-14Cincinnati Bengals returns 6 of 6 continuity slots — the whole offense is intact. Joe Burrow at quarterback, Zac Taylor as head coach, Dan Pitcher calling it. The offense projects to 36.4 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 23.6 rushes.
In: Colbie Young (wr4), Mitch Tinsley (wr5), Kendric Pryor (wr7). Out: Mitchell Tinsley (wr4), Noah Fant (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Chase Brown ← | 63.3% |
| Samaje Perine | 27.1% |
| Tahj Brooks | 8.2% |
| Gary Brightwell | 1.4% |
Key additions: Retain G Dalton Risner & OT Orlando Brown Jr. Added C Connor Lew in the 4th round from Auburn & WR Colbie Young from Georgia in the 4th round.
Key departures: No key departures
Notes: Burrow and the Bengals look to get back on track & healthy for the 2026 season. Chase & Higgins are set to have fantastic years if the team is healthy. Chase Brown should see his fantasy value stay high in 2026 with Burrow back but it remains to be seen if he is the long term RB solution for Cincinatti. TE play does not typically produce consistent fantasy relevance. Bengals have added heavily on defense this offseason & should be more competitive. Worth note, if the Bengals do not play well this season HC Zac Taylor is going to be fired.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Joe Burrow returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (37.7 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 36.4 att/g.
| Projected carry share | 63.3% |
| Projected carries per game | 12.3 |
| Projected carries, full season | 209 |
| Last season, carries per game | 13.7 |
That is a reduction of 1.4 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 23.6 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: CIN rates 25.8 against a league average of 23, 2.9 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -1.9 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -4.7 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | -2.1 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +2 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Chase Brown study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +4.8% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 2023 | 15.8 | 67% | -22.6% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2022 | 14.7 | 67% | +1.8% |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2024 | 16.1 | 65% | -21.1% |
| Tony Pollard | 2023 | 13.1 | 61% | +4.4% |
| David Montgomery | 2021 | 15 | 59% | -19.7% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 3 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 5, pick 163 by CIN |
| College | Illinois |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 5′10″ |
| Weight | 209 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.43s |
| Vertical | 40″ |
| Broad jump | 127″ |
| Career PPR per game | 15.1 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 16.7% |
| Bust rate | 2.8% |
| Games missed per season | 0.3 |
| Injury history | Hamstring |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.09 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 16 against MIA — 32.9 PPR on 16 touches and a 12.9% target share, in a game that finished 45-21. His worst was Week 3 against MIN at 6, on 15 touches, final score 10-48. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.4; in the 9 decided by more, 16.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 16.8 points per game. He scored 16.62, 1.1% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 5 against 3.14 expected, a gap of 1.9.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 17-16 | 13.1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 43 | 1 | 13% | 75% |
| 2 | JAX | 31-27 | 8.5 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 47 | 0 | 7% | 71% |
| 3 | MIN | 10-48 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 19.2% | 55% |
| 4 | DEN | 3-28 | 10.1 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 10 | 40 | 0 | 13.6% | 73% |
| 5 | DET | 24-37 | 11.8 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 20% | 53% |
| 6 | GB | 18-27 | 8.9 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 42 | 0 | 5% | 54% |
| 7 | PIT | 33-31 | 12 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 | 108 | 0 | 8.9% | 63% |
| 8 | NYJ | 38-39 | 25.5 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 12 | 73 | 2 | 9.1% | 54% |
| 9 | CHI | 42-47 | 19.2 | 8 | 14 | 75 | 11 | 37 | 0 | 31.1% | 96% |
| 11 | PIT | 12-34 | 18.7 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 18 | 99 | 0 | 20.5% | 82% |
| 12 | NE | 20-26 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 19 | 107 | 0 | 11.8% | 89% |
| 13 | BAL | 32-14 | 18.3 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 15 | 78 | 0 | 15.9% | 60% |
| 14 | BUF | 34-39 | 18.5 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 23 | 2 | 11.1% | 67% |
| 15 | BAL | 0-24 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 37 | 13 | 53 | 0 | 19.4% | 62% |
| 16 | MIA | 45-21 | 32.9 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 12 | 66 | 3 | 12.9% | 61% |
| 17 | ARI | 37-14 | 29.1 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 22 | 101 | 2 | 9.1% | 61% |
| 18 | CLE | 18-20 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 13 | 72 | 1 | 15.8% | 56% |
| Receptions | 69 |
| Targets | 88 |
| Receiving yards | 437 |
| Carries | 232 |
| Rushing yards | 1,019 |
| Touchdowns | 11 |
| Points per game | 16.62 |
| Yards per target | 4.97 |
| Catch rate | 78.41% |
| Yards per carry | 4.39 |
| Snap share | 66.59% |
| Target share | 14.32% |
| Air-yards share | 1.36% |
| WOPR | 0.225 |
| RACR | -1.99 |
| Average depth of target | 0.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.2 |
| Total YAC | 450 |
| Broken tackles | 8 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 96.8 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.61 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.25 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 13.9% |
| End-zone target share | 5.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 62.1% |
| Goal-line carry share | 63.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.14 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.86 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 6.35 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 7 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 38 of 49 |
| Target share | 7 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 7 of 49 |
The offense threw it 640 times. He took 14.5% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Ja'Marr Chase | 30.48% |
| Tee Higgins | 16.14% |
| Chase Brown ← | 14.5% |
| Andrei Iosivas | 9.56% |
| Mike Gesicki | 6.92% |
| Noah Fant | 6.75% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 7 | 34 | 20.99 | 5.68 | 13.89% |
| Joe Flacco | 6 | 35 | 16.55 | 4.49 | 14.4% |
| Jake Browning | 4 | 19 | 9.1 | 4.58 | 14.95% |
7 of his 17 games were blowouts, 46.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.73 in those and 16.35 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 9 against LV — 26.7 PPR on 32 touches and a 13.5% target share, in a game that finished 41-24. His worst was Week 2 against KC at 3.1, on 4 touches, final score 25-26. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.9; in the 6 decided by more, 19.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 15.5 points per game. He scored 15.94, 2.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 10-16 | 5.3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 10.3% | 33% |
| 2 | KC | 25-26 | 3.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 0% | 20% |
| 3 | WAS | 33-38 | 8.9 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 62 | 0 | 7.9% | 24% |
| 4 | CAR | 34-24 | 23.2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 80 | 2 | 10% | 40% |
| 5 | BAL | 38-41 | 16.4 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 46 | 1 | 7.7% | 33% |
| 6 | NYG | 17-7 | 14.4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 53 | 1 | 13% | 62% |
| 7 | CLE | 21-14 | 7.3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 0 | 8.3% | 58% |
| 8 | PHI | 17-37 | 11.4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 1 | 11.1% | 48% |
| 9 | LV | 41-24 | 26.7 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 27 | 120 | 1 | 13.5% | 80% |
| 10 | BAL | 34-35 | 22.4 | 9 | 11 | 52 | 13 | 42 | 1 | 20.4% | 87% |
| 11 | LAC | 27-34 | 19.3 | 5 | 7 | 57 | 22 | 86 | 0 | 15.2% | 83% |
| 13 | PIT | 38-44 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 12 | 70 | 1 | 8.1% | 81% |
| 14 | DAL | 27-20 | 24.3 | 6 | 8 | 65 | 14 | 58 | 1 | 18.6% | 83% |
| 15 | TEN | 37-27 | 26.3 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 25 | 97 | 2 | 8.6% | 93% |
| 16 | CLE | 24-6 | 13.9 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 18 | 91 | 0 | 10.7% | 98% |
| 17 | DEN | 30-24 | 13.1 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 67 | 0 | 8.2% | 81% |
| Receptions | 54 |
| Targets | 65 |
| Receiving yards | 360 |
| Carries | 229 |
| Rushing yards | 990 |
| Touchdowns | 11 |
| Points per game | 15.94 |
| Yards per target | 5.54 |
| Catch rate | 83.08% |
| Yards per carry | 4.32 |
| Snap share | 62.75% |
| Target share | 10.72% |
| Air-yards share | 0.94% |
| WOPR | 0.167 |
| RACR | 1.451 |
| Average depth of target | 0.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.6 |
| Total YAC | 326 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 110.3 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.61 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.3 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 11.6% |
| End-zone target share | 5.3% |
| Red-zone carry share | 63.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 52% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.7 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.3 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 8.23 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 14 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 27 of 46 |
| Target share | 17 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 6 of 46 |
The offense threw it 652 times. He took 10.37% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Ja'Marr Chase | 27.91% |
| Tee Higgins | 17.38% |
| Mike Gesicki | 13.24% |
| Chase Brown ← | 10.37% |
| Andrei Iosivas | 9.73% |
| Zack Moss | 4.31% |
3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 20.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.33 in those and 13.91 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 14 against IND — 19.5 PPR on 11 touches and a 12% target share, in a game that finished 34-14. His worst was Week 12 against PIT at 0, on 0 touches, final score 10-16. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.1; in the 5 decided by more, 6.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 4.9 points per game. He scored 4.46, 9.9% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BAL | 24-27 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 2% |
| 3 | LA | 19-16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1% |
| 4 | TEN | 3-27 | 0.7 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.7% | 2% |
| 5 | ARI | 34-20 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3% | 1% |
| 6 | SEA | 17-13 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2.9% | 7% |
| 12 | PIT | 10-16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 13 | JAX | 34-31 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 61 | 0 | 0% | 15% |
| 14 | IND | 34-14 | 19.5 | 3 | 3 | 80 | 8 | 25 | 1 | 12% | 30% |
| 15 | MIN | 27-24 | 8.1 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 7.5% | 19% |
| 16 | PIT | 11-34 | 4.4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 5% | 22% |
| 17 | KC | 17-25 | 4.8 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6.5% | 15% |
| 18 | CLE | 31-14 | 6.3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 43 | 0 | 7.1% | 28% |
| Receptions | 14 |
| Targets | 15 |
| Receiving yards | 156 |
| Carries | 44 |
| Rushing yards | 179 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 4.46 |
| Yards per target | 10.4 |
| Catch rate | 93.33% |
| Yards per carry | 4.07 |
| Snap share | 11.83% |
| Target share | 3.92% |
| Air-yards share | -2.57% |
| WOPR | 0.04 |
| RACR | -0.766 |
| Average depth of target | -3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 13.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -2.7 |
| Total YAC | 194 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 132.2 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.54 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.75 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.2% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 9.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.14 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.14 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.41 |
The offense threw it 615 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Ja'Marr Chase | 24.53% |
| Tyler Boyd | 16.58% |
| Tee Higgins | 12.86% |
| Joe Mixon | 10.83% |
| Tanner Hudson | 8.46% |
| Trenton Irwin | 5.41% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Browning | 7 | 12 | 7.03 | 12.42 | 5.44% |
| Joe Burrow | 5 | 3 | 0.86 | 2.33 | 1.78% |
4 of his 12 games were blowouts, 57.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.73 in those and 3.06 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Chase Brown →