Charts· RB touchdown regression

Touchdowns over expected (2026, Weeks 1–9), min. 72 carries

30 RBs with 72+ carries, ranked by TDs over expected (season) through Week 9 of 2026. Top: Bhayshul Tuten (+2.9), Blake Corum (+2.7) and Bucky Irving (+2.5). Bottom: Chase Brown (-2.3), Ashton Jeanty (-1.9) and Quinshon Judkins (-1.9).

Expected TDs = every carry and target priced by where it happened

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30RBs ranked

1–9weeks of 2026

72min. carries

+2.9#1 Bhayshul Tuten

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30 RBs · 1496 characters

RB TOUCHDOWN REGRESSION

Touchdowns over expected (2026, Weeks 1–9), min. 72 carries

1. Bhayshul Tuten (JAX) +2.9 (7 TD, 4.1 exp)
2. Blake Corum (LAR) +2.7 (5 TD, 2.3 exp)
3. Bucky Irving (TB) +2.5 (8 TD, 5.5 exp)
4. Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) +2.0 (11 TD, 9.0 exp)
5. James Cook (BUF) +1.9 (8 TD, 6.1 exp)
6. Chuba Hubbard (CAR) +1.9 (7 TD, 5.1 exp)
7. Christian McCaffrey (SF) +1.5 (10 TD, 8.5 exp)
8. Kenneth Walker III (KC) +1.5 (11 TD, 9.5 exp)
9. Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) +1.5 (4 TD, 2.5 exp)
10. Bijan Robinson (ATL) +0.8 (6 TD, 5.2 exp)
11. Kyren Williams (LAR) +0.6 (7 TD, 6.4 exp)
12. Jonathan Taylor (IND) +0.5 (8 TD, 7.5 exp)
13. Jaylen Warren (PIT) +0.4 (3 TD, 2.6 exp)
14. Derrick Henry (BAL) +0.4 (9 TD, 8.6 exp)
15. Aaron Jones (MIN) +0.3 (2 TD, 1.7 exp)
16. D'Andre Swift (CHI) +0.1 (10 TD, 9.9 exp)
17. Omarion Hampton (LAC) +0.0 (3 TD, 3.0 exp)
18. Tony Pollard (TEN) +0.0 (6 TD, 6.0 exp)
19. Cam Skattebo (NYG) +0.0 (2 TD, 2.0 exp)
20. Braelon Allen (NYJ) 0.0 (3 TD, 3.0 exp)
21. Jeremiyah Love (ARI) -0.5 (2 TD, 2.5 exp)
22. Tyler Allgeier (ARI) -0.6 (3 TD, 3.6 exp)
23. Javonte Williams (DAL) -0.6 (10 TD, 10.6 exp)
24. Emanuel Wilson (SEA) -0.6 (4 TD, 4.6 exp)
25. Woody Marks (HOU) -0.7 (2 TD, 2.7 exp)
26. Ollie Gordon II (MIA) -1.2 (4 TD, 5.2 exp)
27. J.K. Dobbins (DEN) -1.3 (3 TD, 4.3 exp)
28. Quinshon Judkins (CLE) -1.9 (3 TD, 4.9 exp)
29. Ashton Jeanty (LV) -1.9 (4 TD, 5.9 exp)
30. Chase Brown (CIN) -2.3 (1 TD, 3.3 exp)

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Every RB on the chart

The whole ranking, 30 players: the chart shows the top and the bottom of it.

#	Player	Team	TDs over expected (season)
1	Bhayshul Tuten7 TD, 4.1 exp	JAX	+2.9
2	Blake Corum5 TD, 2.3 exp	LAR	+2.7
3	Bucky Irving8 TD, 5.5 exp	TB	+2.5
4	Jahmyr Gibbs11 TD, 9.0 exp	DET	+2.0
5	James Cook8 TD, 6.1 exp	BUF	+1.9
6	Chuba Hubbard7 TD, 5.1 exp	CAR	+1.9
7	Christian McCaffrey10 TD, 8.5 exp	SF	+1.5
8	Kenneth Walker III11 TD, 9.5 exp	KC	+1.5
9	Rhamondre Stevenson4 TD, 2.5 exp	NE	+1.5
10	Bijan Robinson6 TD, 5.2 exp	ATL	+0.8
11	Kyren Williams7 TD, 6.4 exp	LAR	+0.6
12	Jonathan Taylor8 TD, 7.5 exp	IND	+0.5
13	Jaylen Warren3 TD, 2.6 exp	PIT	+0.4
14	Derrick Henry9 TD, 8.6 exp	BAL	+0.4
15	Aaron Jones2 TD, 1.7 exp	MIN	+0.3
16	D'Andre Swift10 TD, 9.9 exp	CHI	+0.1
17	Omarion Hampton3 TD, 3.0 exp	LAC	+0.0
18	Tony Pollard6 TD, 6.0 exp	TEN	+0.0
19	Cam Skattebo2 TD, 2.0 exp	NYG	+0.0
20	Braelon Allen3 TD, 3.0 exp	NYJ	0.0
21	Jeremiyah Love2 TD, 2.5 exp	ARI	-0.5
22	Tyler Allgeier3 TD, 3.6 exp	ARI	-0.6
23	Javonte Williams10 TD, 10.6 exp	DAL	-0.6
24	Emanuel Wilson4 TD, 4.6 exp	SEA	-0.6
25	Woody Marks2 TD, 2.7 exp	HOU	-0.7
26	Ollie Gordon II4 TD, 5.2 exp	MIA	-1.2
27	J.K. Dobbins3 TD, 4.3 exp	DEN	-1.3
28	Quinshon Judkins3 TD, 4.9 exp	CLE	-1.9
29	Ashton Jeanty4 TD, 5.9 exp	LV	-1.9
30	Chase Brown1 TD, 3.3 exp	CIN	-2.3

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Minimums scale with the season (QBs 15 attempts a week, RBs 8 carries, WRs 5 targets, TEs 3). Expected points price every carry and target by where it happened. Built from the same data as the Charts gallery; every chart saves as a 1080 × 1350 post.