Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 8.65 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 114.5, usage worth 9.4.
25 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| SLEEPER | 111.1 |
| ESPN | 123.2 |
| YAHOO | 116.8 |
| UNDERDOG | 81.3 |
| CBS | 106.9 |
| FFA | 91 |
| Goes around | Round 10, pick 7 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR45 |
| Bye week | 13 |
| ADP standard deviation | 7.1 picks |
Our board has him at 178 points, 10.9 per game — 70.8 catches, 804 yards, 4 TDs. That is WR5, 90 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 6.7 points per game to a ceiling of 16.1, with the median at 10.9. Boom rate 48%, bust rate 38%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 114.5 on consensus and our board has him 90. We rank him 24.5 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
If Pierce's foot keeps him out, Downs likely moves outside in 2-WR sets and crushes - a prospect the model liked both years. As a WR4, a consistent flex like this is too strong to pass, and he benefits from the same 2-WR-set logic.
buy · medium conviction · 2026-06-14Indianapolis Colts returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1. Daniel Jones at quarterback, Shane Steichen as head coach, Jim Bob Cooter calling it. The offense projects to 32.5 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 26.1 rushes.
In: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (wr3), Deion Burks (wr5), Seth McGowan (rb3), Anderson Castle (rb4). Out: Michael Pittman Jr (wr1), Adonai Mitchell (wr4), Ameer Abdullah (rb3).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 20.1%, with a bear case of 18.9% and a bull case of 21.5% and a full range of 18.1% to 22.3%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Josh Downs ← | 20.1% |
| Tyler Warren | 19.1% |
| Alec Pierce | 17% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 10.1% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 10% |
| Deion Burks | 4.8% |
What the offense looks like: The Colts seriously need Daniel Jones to BE THAT GUY. Taylor, Downs, and especially Alec Pierce rely on having a highly productive passing game that helps lift the entire offense as whole. Tyler Warren has shown flashes of being the next George Kittle, really awesome player.
Key additions: Colts brought in WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in free agency. Westbrook-Ikhine was a highly dynamic WR while in Tennessee. Could be nohting, but could help.
Key departures: WR Michael Pittman Jr traded to Steelers. QB Anthony Richardson requested a trade & will not play again for the Colts.
Notes: Anthony Richardson will be traded or released. Daniel Jones on track for full recovery from torn achilles & landed extension. Very positive for offense. Jonathan Taylor aging but HIGHLY productive. Alec Pierce lands MASSVIVE 4 year contract & Colts invested in him as their WR1. Josh Downs is primed for an increase workload & could truly break out in 2026. Michael Pittman Jr. traded to Steelers. Tyler Warren is a top TE in dynasty & could have a MASSIVE season next year.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Daniel Jones returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.1 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.5 att/g.
25 historical comps for WRs age ~24, prior share 20.2%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 20.5%, p25-p75 [17.6%, 23.8%], tails [15.7%, 25.7%]. Closest comps: Russell Gage 2020→2021 (ATL: 17.6%→23.6%); Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2023→2024 (SEA: 17.5%→23.8%); Darnell Mooney 2020→2021 (CHI: 16.2%→27.2%).
self-anchored 58% to own 20.2% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 20.5%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: IND rates 23.3 against a league average of 23, 0.3 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +1.1 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +4.7 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -0.8 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +2.9 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2 | Ashton Dulin | +12 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -6.9% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Davis | 2022 | 11.4 | 73% | +8.1% |
| Odell Beckham | 2023 | 7.7 | 70% | -63.3% |
| Rashod Bateman | 2024 | 10.9 | 69% | -17.8% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2023 | 8.9 | 68% | +55.8% |
| Romeo Doubs | 2024 | 10.2 | 67% | +17.3% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 3, pick 79 by IND |
| College | North Carolina |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 5′9″ |
| Weight | 171 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.48s |
| Vertical | 38.5″ |
| Broad jump | 131″ |
| Career PPR per game | 10.2 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 21.1% |
| Bust rate | 23.7% |
| Games missed per season | 1 |
| Injury history | Ankle, Shoulder, Concussion |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.42 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 9 against PIT — 17.7 PPR on 9 targets and a 18.8% target share, in a game that finished 20-27. His worst was Week 10 against ATL at 1.3, on 2 targets, final score 31-25. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.7; in the 6 decided by more, 8.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 9.4 points per game. He scored 8.65, 7.9% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 33-8 | 3.2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10.3% | 49% |
| 2 | DEN | 29-28 | 11.1 | 6 | 8 | 51 | 0 | 24.2% | 58% |
| 3 | TEN | 41-20 | 5.4 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 12% | 51% |
| 4 | LA | 20-27 | 6.4 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 15.6% | 62% |
| 5 | LV | 40-6 | 11.4 | 6 | 8 | 54 | 0 | 25.8% | 50% |
| 6 | ARI | 31-27 | 16.2 | 6 | 7 | 42 | 1 | 23.3% | 51% |
| 8 | TEN | 38-14 | 12.9 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 1 | 10.7% | 64% |
| 9 | PIT | 20-27 | 17.7 | 6 | 9 | 57 | 1 | 18.8% | 67% |
| 10 | ATL | 31-25 | 1.3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7.7% | 47% |
| 12 | KC | 20-23 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 19.4% | 43% |
| 13 | HOU | 16-20 | 6.4 | 2 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 24% | 57% |
| 14 | JAX | 19-36 | 6.3 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 13.9% | 66% |
| 15 | SEA | 16-18 | 10.3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 19.2% | 72% |
| 16 | SF | 27-48 | 11.8 | 5 | 9 | 65 | 0 | 25% | 78% |
| 17 | JAX | 17-23 | 5.4 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 17.2% | 61% |
| 18 | HOU | 30-38 | 9.6 | 4 | 4 | 61 | 0 | 12.1% | 63% |
| Receptions | 58 |
| Targets | 88 |
| Receiving yards | 566 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | -2 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 8.65 |
| Yards per target | 6.43 |
| Catch rate | 65.91% |
| Yards per carry | -1 |
| Snap share | 58.69% |
| Target share | 17.45% |
| Air-yards share | 16.77% |
| WOPR | 0.38 |
| RACR | 0.913 |
| Average depth of target | 7.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.3 |
| Total YAC | 144 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 89.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.54 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.1 |
| Red-zone targets | 15 |
| Red-zone target share | 19.5% |
| End-zone target share | 11.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.38 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.62 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 42 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 41 of 44 |
| Target share | 42 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 42 of 44 |
The offense threw it 546 times. He took 16.67% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyler Warren | 21.21% |
| Michael Pittman | 21.02% |
| Josh Downs ← | 16.67% |
| Alec Pierce | 15.91% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 10.42% |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 3.79% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 11 | 60 | 8.64 | 6.17 | 17.44% |
| Philip Rivers | 3 | 19 | 9.17 | 5.89 | 20.47% |
| Riley Leonard | 2 | 9 | 7.95 | 9.33 | 13% |
6 of his 16 games were blowouts, 36.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.5 in those and 8.74 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 4 against PIT — 22.2 PPR on 9 targets and a 32.1% target share, in a game that finished 27-24. His worst was Week 7 against MIA at 1.3, on 3 targets, final score 16-10. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.2; in the 4 decided by more, 7.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 13.5 points per game. He scored 13.11, 3.9% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 3.36 expected, a gap of -1.4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CHI | 21-16 | 5.2 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 27.8% | 57% |
| 4 | PIT | 27-24 | 22.2 | 8 | 9 | 82 | 1 | 32.1% | 62% |
| 5 | JAX | 34-37 | 15.9 | 9 | 12 | 69 | 0 | 26.7% | 61% |
| 6 | TEN | 20-17 | 19.5 | 7 | 9 | 66 | 1 | 25% | 79% |
| 7 | MIA | 16-10 | 1.3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13.6% | 61% |
| 8 | HOU | 20-23 | 22.2 | 4 | 9 | 109 | 1 | 29% | 70% |
| 9 | MIN | 13-21 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 60 | 0 | 33.3% | 50% |
| 10 | BUF | 20-30 | 14.2 | 7 | 10 | 72 | 0 | 28.6% | 69% |
| 11 | NYJ | 28-27 | 19.4 | 5 | 5 | 84 | 1 | 17.9% | 69% |
| 12 | DET | 6-24 | 5.7 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 28% | 53% |
| 15 | DEN | 13-31 | 6.2 | 3 | 8 | 32 | 0 | 22.2% | 76% |
| 16 | TEN | 38-30 | 15.1 | 3 | 4 | 61 | 1 | 36.4% | 58% |
| 17 | NYG | 33-45 | 5.2 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 10.8% | 61% |
| 18 | JAX | 26-23 | 19.4 | 10 | 13 | 94 | 0 | 33.3% | 76% |
| Receptions | 72 |
| Targets | 107 |
| Receiving yards | 803 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 12 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 13.11 |
| Yards per target | 7.5 |
| Catch rate | 67.29% |
| Yards per carry | 12 |
| Snap share | 64.43% |
| Target share | 26.05% |
| Air-yards share | 15.93% |
| WOPR | 0.502 |
| RACR | 0.954 |
| Average depth of target | 6.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.7 |
| Total YAC | 396 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 93.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.83 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.06 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 21.9% |
| End-zone target share | 11.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.36 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.36 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 27 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 37 of 51 |
| Target share | 15 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 47 of 51 |
The offense threw it 513 times. He took 21.79% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Michael Pittman | 22.61% |
| Josh Downs ← | 21.79% |
| Alec Pierce | 14.05% |
| Adonai Mitchell | 11.2% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 6.31% |
| Kylen Granson | 6.31% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 7 | 41 | 10.73 | 8.24 | 24.99% |
| Joe Flacco | 7 | 66 | 15.49 | 7.05 | 27.11% |
2 of his 14 games were blowouts, 6.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.95 in those and 15.22 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 7 against CLE — 23.5 PPR on 6 targets and a 27.3% target share, in a game that finished 38-39. His worst was Week 9 against CAR at 2, on 1 targets, final score 27-13. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.3; in the 8 decided by more, 8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 9.9 points per game. He scored 9.24, 6.7% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.64 expected, a gap of -1.6.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 21-31 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 0 | 17.9% | 79% |
| 2 | HOU | 31-20 | 7.7 | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 16.1% | 75% |
| 3 | BAL | 22-19 | 13.7 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 0 | 28.6% | 80% |
| 4 | LA | 23-29 | 5.4 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 12.5% | 73% |
| 5 | TEN | 23-16 | 15.7 | 6 | 6 | 97 | 0 | 25% | 71% |
| 6 | JAX | 20-37 | 13.1 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 15.4% | 78% |
| 7 | CLE | 38-39 | 23.5 | 5 | 6 | 125 | 1 | 27.3% | 71% |
| 8 | NO | 27-38 | 14.2 | 7 | 9 | 72 | 0 | 23.7% | 80% |
| 9 | CAR | 27-13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4.2% | 20% |
| 10 | NE | 10-6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 11.5% | 25% |
| 12 | TB | 27-20 | 9.3 | 5 | 13 | 43 | 0 | 32.5% | 68% |
| 13 | TEN | 31-28 | 4.4 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 12.2% | 68% |
| 14 | CIN | 14-34 | 6.2 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 7.9% | 78% |
| 15 | PIT | 30-13 | 4.9 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 11.1% | 58% |
| 16 | ATL | 10-29 | 9.9 | 6 | 9 | 39 | 0 | 25.7% | 93% |
| 17 | LV | 23-20 | 7.3 | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 10% | 63% |
| 18 | HOU | 19-23 | 7.8 | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 13% | 68% |
| Receptions | 68 |
| Targets | 98 |
| Receiving yards | 771 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 9.24 |
| Yards per target | 7.87 |
| Catch rate | 69.39% |
| Snap share | 67.53% |
| Target share | 17.33% |
| Air-yards share | 16.52% |
| WOPR | 0.376 |
| RACR | 1.383 |
| Average depth of target | 7.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.9 |
| Total YAC | 371 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 95.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.56 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 15.4% |
| End-zone target share | 17.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.64 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.64 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 45 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 32 of 51 |
| Target share | 45 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 46 of 51 |
The offense threw it 574 times. He took 17.95% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Michael Pittman | 28.57% |
| Josh Downs ← | 17.95% |
| Alec Pierce | 11.9% |
| Kylen Granson | 9.16% |
| Zack Moss | 6.78% |
| Will Mallory | 4.76% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 15 | 88 | 9.71 | 8.03 | 17.61% |
| Anthony Richardson | 2 | 10 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 15.2% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 21.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.53 in those and 10.34 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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