Tommy Tremble — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 4.26 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 169.9, usage worth 4.5.

26 years old · 5 seasons of experience · 2021 draft class

ESPN	169.9
UNDERDOG	216
FFA	374

Draft-room facts

Goes around	Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rank	TE32

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 46.4 points, 3.1 per game — 20.4 catches, 188 yards, 1.2 TDs. That is TE5, 303 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 2 points per game to a ceiling of 9.1, with the median at 3.1. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 35%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 169.9 on consensus and our board has him 303. We rank him 133.1 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Carolina Panthers returns 6 of 6 continuity slots — the whole offense is intact. Bryce Young at quarterback, Dave Canales as head coach, Brad Idzik calling it. The offense projects to 31.3 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 26.9 rushes.

In: Kenny Pickett (qb2), Chris Brazzell II (wr3), John Metchie III (wr5), Jonathon Brooks (rb2), AJ Dillon (rb4). Out: Rico Dowdle (rb2).

His own projected target share for 2026 is 6.8%, with a bear case of 6% and a bull case of 7.5% and a full range of 5.6% to 8%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.

The projected target split across the offense:

Tetairoa McMillan	21.4%
Jalen Coker	11.9%
Xavier Legette	10.6%
Chris Brazzell II	8.3%
David Moore	8.2%
Chuba Hubbard	8.1%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Bryce Young returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (30.3 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.3 att/g.

How that share projection was built

The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.

Offensive environment: CAR rates 20.9 against a league average of 23, 2.1 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season	-1.3 · neutral
Weeks 1–6	-1.4 · neutral
Weeks 12–17	-1.5 · neutral
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)	+5 · easier

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

Season	Games missed	Main beneficiary	Their PPR gain
2024	2	Ja'Tavion Sanders	+2.8

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +51.2% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, TEs crash the following year 47% of the time (hold 53%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 47% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

Player	Season	Their PPG	Similarity	Next year
Adam Trautman	2024	3.4	74%	+2.9%
Dawson Knox	2024	4.2	70%	+13.1%
Josh Oliver	2024	5.5	67%	+17.1%
Colby Parkinson	2024	4.1	65%	+69%
Will Dissly	2022	5.8	65%	-30.2%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 4 gained value, 1 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted	2021, round 3, pick 83 by CAR
College	Notre Dame
Age at draft	21
Height	6′3″
Weight	241 lb
40-yard dash	4.6s
Vertical	36.5″
Broad jump	122″

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game	4.5
Week-to-week variation	0.8
Boom rate	9.1%
Bust rate	34.5%
Games missed per season	0.6
Injury history	Hip, Hamstring, Concussion
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score	0.74

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · CAR · 15 games

His best game was Week 4 against NE — 15.2 PPR on 8 targets and a 25% target share, in a game that finished 13-42. His worst was Week 9 against GB at 0, on 1 targets, final score 16-13. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.1; in the 5 decided by more, 4.6. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 4.5 points per game. He scored 4.26, 4.8% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	JAX	10-26	1.2	1	1	2	0	2.9%	45%
2	ARI	22-27	5	3	3	20	0	5.7%	41%
3	ATL	30-0	3.6	2	2	16	0	8.3%	57%
4	NE	13-42	15.2	5	8	42	1	25%	75%
5	MIA	27-24	1.7	1	2	7	0	7.4%	76%
6	DAL	30-27	7.9	4	4	39	0	19%	73%
7	NYJ	13-6	1	1	1	0	0	3.2%	66%
8	BUF	9-40	1.4	1	1	4	0	4.3%	46%
9	GB	16-13	0	0	1	0	0	5.3%	55%
11	ATL	30-27	6.4	1	2	54	0	4.5%	57%
13	LA	31-28	1.2	1	2	2	0	10%	56%
15	NO	17-20	3.3	2	4	13	0	20%	49%
16	TB	23-20	1.6	1	1	6	0	3.2%	43%
17	SEA	10-27	1.6	1	1	6	0	4.8%	77%
18	TB	14-16	12.8	3	4	38	1	13.3%	90%

Production

Receptions	27
Targets	37
Receiving yards	249
Touchdowns	2
Points per game	4.26
Yards per target	6.73
Catch rate	72.97%

Role

Snap share	60.4%
Target share	9.13%
Air-yards share	5.83%
WOPR	0.178
RACR	3.123

Efficiency

Average depth of target	4.4
Yards after catch per reception	6.1
Yards before catch per reception	3.1
Total YAC	164
Broken tackles	0
Drop rate	0.1%
Passer rating when targeted	109
Receiving EPA per game	0.55

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	5
Red-zone target share	6.6%
End-zone target share	3.3%
Expected receiving TDs	1.17
Actual receiving TDs	2
Receiving TD luck	0.83

Who else ate

The offense threw it 515 times. He took 7.71% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tetairoa McMillan	25.42%
Xavier Legette	13.33%
Rico Dowdle	10.42%
Jalen Coker	8.96%
Chuba Hubbard	8.13%
Tommy Tremble ←	7.71%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Bryce Young	14	36	4.46	6.81	9.47%
Andy Dalton	1	1	1.4	4	4.3%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 34.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.45 in those and 4.09 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · CAR · 10 games

His best game was Week 13 against TB — 12.7 PPR on 8 targets and a 19.5% target share, in a game that finished 23-26. His worst was Week 5 against CHI at -0.3, on 2 targets, final score 10-36. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.7; in the 5 decided by more, 3.5. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 5.7 points per game. He scored 5.64, 0.4% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 0.9 expected, a gap of 1.1.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
2	LAC	3-26	5.3	3	4	23	0	15.4%	46%
3	LV	36-22	5.9	3	3	29	0	8.1%	86%
5	CHI	10-36	-0.3	1	2	7	0	6.1%	28%
8	DEN	14-28	3.3	2	3	13	0	8.6%	61%
12	KC	27-30	1.5	1	2	5	0	6.1%	82%
13	TB	23-26	12.7	5	8	77	0	19.5%	100%
14	PHI	16-22	7.3	1	2	3	1	6.1%	65%
15	DAL	14-30	3.5	2	2	15	0	7.4%	64%
16	ARI	36-30	6.2	3	3	32	0	12.5%	75%
18	ATL	44-38	11	2	3	30	1	8.6%	60%

Production

Receptions	23
Targets	32
Receiving yards	234
Touchdowns	2
Points per game	5.64
Yards per target	7.31
Catch rate	71.88%

Role

Snap share	66.7%
Target share	9.84%
Air-yards share	7.51%
WOPR	0.2
RACR	1.323

Efficiency

Average depth of target	5.7
Yards after catch per reception	5.4
Yards before catch per reception	4.7
Total YAC	125
Broken tackles	1
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	100.3
Receiving EPA per game	0.5

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	4
Red-zone target share	5.1%
End-zone target share	5.6%
Expected receiving TDs	0.9
Actual receiving TDs	2
Receiving TD luck	1.1

Who else ate

The offense threw it 545 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Xavier Legette	16.25%
Adam Thielen	11.99%
Diontae Johnson	11.22%
David Moore	11.03%
Chuba Hubbard	10.44%
Jalen Coker	8.9%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Bryce Young	8	27	6.35	7.33	10.52%
Andy Dalton	2	5	2.8	7.2	7.1%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 10 games were blowouts, 8.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.5 in those and 7.74 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · CAR · 15 games

His best game was Week 16 against GB — 9.9 PPR on 6 targets and a 18.8% target share, in a game that finished 30-33. His worst was Week 2 against NO at 0, on 0 targets, final score 17-20. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5; in the 9 decided by more, 3.4. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 4.3 points per game. He scored 4.03, 9.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 1.54 expected, a gap of 1.5.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	ATL	10-24	0	0	0	0	0	0%	23%
2	NO	17-20	0	0	0	0	0	0%	13%
3	SEA	27-37	2.5	1	1	15	0	1.8%	28%
5	DET	24-42	7.1	1	1	1	1	2.9%	20%
6	MIA	21-42	4.5	2	2	25	0	5.7%	45%
8	HOU	15-13	8.4	2	3	4	1	9.7%	54%
9	IND	13-27	3.2	2	2	12	0	5.4%	45%
10	CHI	13-16	4.6	3	3	16	0	8.8%	45%
11	DAL	10-33	7.4	1	3	4	1	11.5%	76%
12	TEN	10-17	1.7	1	1	7	0	4.2%	72%
14	NO	6-28	1.2	1	3	2	0	9.4%	65%
15	ATL	9-7	5.2	2	2	32	0	8.7%	83%
16	GB	30-33	9.9	4	6	59	0	18.8%	73%
17	JAX	0-26	1.6	1	3	6	0	9.7%	70%
18	TB	0-9	3.1	2	2	11	0	11.1%	85%

Production

Receptions	23
Targets	32
Receiving yards	194
Touchdowns	3
Points per game	4.03
Yards per target	6.06
Catch rate	71.88%

Role

Snap share	53.13%
Target share	7.18%
Air-yards share	4.66%
WOPR	0.139
RACR	1.583

Efficiency

Average depth of target	6.4
Yards after catch per reception	4.1
Yards before catch per reception	4.3
Total YAC	95
Broken tackles	3
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	105.5
Receiving EPA per game	0.14

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	4
Red-zone target share	9.8%
End-zone target share	13.3%
Expected receiving TDs	1.54
Actual receiving TDs	3
Receiving TD luck	1.46

Who else ate

The offense threw it 585 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Adam Thielen	25.66%
Jonathan Mingo	15.92%
D.J. Chark	12.36%
Chuba Hubbard	8.24%
Miles Sanders	7.68%
Terrace Marshall	6.18%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Bryce Young	14	31	4.14	5.77	7.56%
Andy Dalton	1	1	2.5	15	1.8%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 15 games were blowouts, 36.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.36 in those and 4.97 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · CAR · 15 games

His best game was Week 17 against TB — 12.3 PPR on 3 targets and a 9.7% target share, in a game that finished 24-30. His worst was Week 14 against SEA at 0, on 2 targets, final score 30-24. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.4; in the 8 decided by more, 3.8. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 4 points per game. He scored 3.63, 2.9% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	CLE	24-26	1.1	1	1	1	0	3.8%	34%
3	NO	22-14	1.7	1	1	7	0	4.2%	39%
4	ARI	16-26	6.4	3	6	34	0	16.7%	42%
5	SF	15-37	0	0	1	0	0	2.5%	57%
7	TB	21-3	9.9	1	1	29	1	4.8%	64%
8	ATL	34-37	3.7	2	4	17	0	11.1%	58%
9	CIN	21-42	9.1	2	4	11	1	13.3%	55%
10	ATL	25-15	0	0	1	0	0	6.3%	59%
11	BAL	3-13	0	0	0	0	0	0%	37%
12	DEN	23-10	1.2	1	2	2	0	11.8%	74%
14	SEA	30-24	0	0	2	0	0	10%	40%
15	PIT	16-24	4	2	3	20	0	15.8%	52%
16	DET	37-23	3.8	2	2	18	0	9.5%	57%
17	TB	24-30	12.3	3	3	33	1	9.7%	58%
18	NO	10-7	1.2	1	1	2	0	9.1%	49%

Production

Receptions	19
Targets	32
Receiving yards	174
Touchdowns	3
Points per game	3.63
Yards per target	5.44
Catch rate	59.38%

Role

Snap share	51.67%
Target share	8.57%
Air-yards share	7.39%
WOPR	0.18
RACR	0.801

Efficiency

Average depth of target	7.7
Yards after catch per reception	3.3
Yards before catch per reception	5.9
Total YAC	62
Broken tackles	0
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	92.4
Receiving EPA per game	-0.11

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	7
Red-zone target share	16.7%
End-zone target share	26.3%
Expected receiving TDs	2.53
Actual receiving TDs	2
Receiving TD luck	-0.53

Who else ate

The offense threw it 457 times. He took 7.49% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

D.J. Moore	27.63%
Terrace Marshall	11.01%
Christian McCaffrey	10.07%
Shi Smith	9.6%
Laviska Shenault Jr.	7.49%
Tommy Tremble ←	7.49%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Baker Mayfield	6	13	3.05	4.08	6.75%
Sam Darnold	6	13	3.75	5.77	10.98%
P.J. Walker	3	6	4.53	7.67	7.4%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 34.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.33 in those and 3.43 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2021 · CAR · 15 games

His best game was Week 3 against HOU — 10.7 PPR on 1 targets and a 3% target share, in a game that finished 24-9. His worst was Week 4 against DAL at 0, on 1 targets, final score 28-36. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.7; in the 8 decided by more, 3.4. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 4.4 points per game. He scored 3.54, 13.1% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	NYJ	19-14	0	0	0	0	0	0%	19%
3	HOU	24-9	10.7	1	1	30	1	3%	26%
4	DAL	28-36	0	0	1	0	0	2.6%	39%
5	PHI	18-21	9.2	2	4	12	1	11.8%	38%
6	MIN	28-34	2	0	2	0	0	5.1%	51%
7	NYG	3-25	3.2	2	2	12	0	5.3%	55%
8	ATL	19-13	4.8	3	4	18	0	16.7%	46%
9	NE	6-24	1.6	1	2	6	0	6.9%	58%
10	ARI	34-10	1.3	1	1	3	0	3.1%	68%
11	WAS	21-27	5.5	2	2	35	0	7.4%	47%
12	MIA	10-33	1.4	1	3	4	0	9.7%	45%
14	ATL	21-29	4.3	2	2	23	0	5.7%	53%
15	BUF	14-31	1.8	1	4	8	0	11.1%	64%
16	TB	6-32	4.2	2	2	22	0	4.7%	59%
18	TB	17-41	3.1	2	5	7	0	11.9%	58%

Production

Receptions	20
Targets	35
Receiving yards	180
Carries	3
Rushing yards	11
Touchdowns	2
Points per game	3.54
Yards per target	5.14
Catch rate	57.14%
Yards per carry	3.67

Role

Snap share	48.4%
Target share	7%
Air-yards share	7.93%
WOPR	0.161
RACR	0.951

Efficiency

Average depth of target	8.2
Yards after catch per reception	3.5
Yards before catch per reception	5.5
Total YAC	70
Broken tackles	0
Drop rate	0.1%
Passer rating when targeted	80.7
Receiving EPA per game	0.42
Rushing EPA per game	0.04

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	4
Red-zone target share	7.3%
End-zone target share	4.8%
Red-zone carry share	4.1%
Goal-line carry share	5%
Expected receiving TDs	1.52
Actual receiving TDs	1
Receiving TD luck	-0.52
Expected rushing TDs	0.71

Who else ate

The offense threw it 599 times. He took 6.09% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

D.J. Moore	28.35%
Robbie Chosen	19.13%
Ameer Abdullah	8.52%
Christian McCaffrey	7.13%
Chuba Hubbard	6.43%
Tommy Tremble ←	6.09%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Sam Darnold	10	23	3.88	4.65	6.8%
Cam Newton	4	11	3.25	6.36	8.47%
P.J. Walker	1	1	1.3	3	3.1%

Blowouts against close games

7 of his 15 games were blowouts, 31.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.37 in those and 3.69 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

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