Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 6.13 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 7.
26 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| ESPN | 170 |
| UNDERDOG | 216 |
| FFA | 515 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR115 |
Our board has him at 51.8 points, 3.2 per game — 20.2 catches, 238 yards, 1.3 TDs. That is WR6, 350 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 1.5 points per game to a ceiling of 6.2, with the median at 3.2. Boom rate 93%, bust rate 54%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 170 on consensus and our board has him 350. We rank him 180 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Houston Texans returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1. CJ Stroud at quarterback, Demeco Ryans as head coach, Nick Caley calling it. The offense projects to 34 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.5 rushes.
In: Nathaniel Dell (wr3), Lewis Bond (wr7), David Montgomery (rb1), Noah Whittington (rb4), Foster Moreau (te2). Out: Nick Chubb (rb2), Cade Stover (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 8.6%, with a bear case of 7.9% and a bull case of 9.5% and a full range of 7.5% to 9.9%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Nico Collins | 21.3% |
| Dalton Schultz | 14% |
| Jayden Higgins | 11.5% |
| Xavier Hutchinson ← | 8.6% |
| Jaylin Noel | 7.1% |
| Nathaniel Dell | 6.2% |
What the offense looks like: If this offense could produce at a higher level than 2025, this will be an offense you want to have pieces of. David Montgomery COULD be a very interesting high end RB2 as long as RB Woody Marks does not eat into his PT too much. Houston also has arguably the best defense in the entire NFL. they will keep them in every game & force turnovers to get this offense the ball back.
Key additions: Texans signed starting LG Wyatt Teller & starting RT Braden Smith this offseason. Also drafted C Keylan Rutledge in the 1st round. all 3 upgrades to last year. Should help protect CJ Stroud & HOPEFULLY GET A RUN GAME GOING IN HOUSTON. Traded for Lions RB David Montgomery. Joe mixon saw great success in 2024 & Montgomery COULD see a high degree of success too. Drafted WR Lewis Bond as well who does not have immediate upside.
Notes: Nico Collins remains a high producing dynasty WR when CJ Stroud plays well. Texans have to improve O line play for offense to provide large fantasy relevance. Traded for David Montgomery from the Lions & He will operate as RB1 with Woody Marks expected to also work in. CJ Stroud has struggled since his rookie season & is a mid range QB2 most weeks in fantasy. Texans do expect to extend him long term despite poor play. Jayden Higgins is an interesting year 2 breakout candidate but Tank Dell also returns in 2026 (We will see if his knee still works).
How the volume number was reached: Same QB CJ Stroud returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.2 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 34 att/g.
25 historical comps for WRs age ~24, prior share 10.7%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 9.7%, p25-p75 [8.1%, 11.5%], tails [7.4%, 12.5%]. Closest comps: JuJu Smith-Schuster 2024→2025 (KC: 10.5%→9.2%); Jauan Jennings 2022→2023 (SF: 11.6%→10.6%); Demarcus Robinson 2020→2021 (KC: 10.7%→7.5%). Adjustment: flat from opportunity_breakout (volume must hold)
self-anchored 45% to own 10.7% role (2yr), 55% to comp median 9.7%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: HOU rates 22.5 against a league average of 23, 0.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +3.2 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +6.5 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +3.8 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -6.2 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +37.2% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, WRs crash the following year 40% of the time (hold 60%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 40% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quez Watkins | 2022 | 5 | 74% | -26.5% |
| Kalif Raymond | 2022 | 6.8 | 67% | +1.9% |
| K.J. Osborn | 2022 | 9.2 | 64% | -2.3% |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 2022 | 4 | 64% | -31.6% |
| Jauan Jennings | 2022 | 5.2 | 63% | +41.7% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 3 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 6, pick 205 by HOU |
| College | Iowa St. |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′2″ |
| Weight | 203 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.53s |
| Vertical | 36″ |
| Broad jump | 116″ |
| 3-cone | 6.91s |
| Shuttle | 4.35s |
| Career PPR per game | 3.8 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1.1 |
| Boom rate | 9.1% |
| Bust rate | 24.2% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.02 |
His best game was Week 8 against SF — 17.9 PPR on 6 targets and a 15.8% target share, in a game that finished 26-15. His worst was Week 14 against KC at 0, on 2 targets, final score 20-10. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.2; in the 5 decided by more, 8.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 7 points per game. He scored 6.13, 12.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 9-14 | 5.5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 | 7.4% | 68% |
| 2 | TB | 19-20 | 4.9 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 13% | 57% |
| 3 | JAX | 10-17 | 4.6 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 8.3% | 62% |
| 4 | TEN | 26-0 | 3.7 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 10.7% | 68% |
| 5 | BAL | 44-10 | 16.8 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 2 | 9.7% | 67% |
| 7 | SEA | 19-27 | 2.3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 8.7% | 78% |
| 8 | SF | 26-15 | 17.9 | 5 | 6 | 69 | 1 | 15.8% | 71% |
| 9 | DEN | 15-18 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 12.8% | 63% |
| 11 | TEN | 16-13 | 7.2 | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 12.5% | 53% |
| 12 | BUF | 23-19 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 36% |
| 13 | IND | 20-16 | 5.9 | 2 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 15.6% | 55% |
| 14 | KC | 20-10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7.4% | 40% |
| 15 | ARI | 40-20 | 2.6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 7.7% | 30% |
| 16 | LV | 23-21 | 1.4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5.9% | 49% |
| 17 | LAC | 20-16 | 4.9 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 11.5% | 48% |
| 18 | IND | 38-30 | 13.4 | 5 | 9 | 84 | 0 | 32.1% | 79% |
| Receptions | 35 |
| Targets | 57 |
| Receiving yards | 428 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 22 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 6.13 |
| Yards per target | 7.51 |
| Catch rate | 61.4% |
| Yards per carry | 7.33 |
| Snap share | 57.75% |
| Target share | 11.19% |
| Air-yards share | 13.19% |
| WOPR | 0.259 |
| RACR | 0.886 |
| Average depth of target | 10.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.1 |
| Total YAC | 146 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 94.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.81 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.11 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.5% |
| End-zone target share | 8.8% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.4 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.4 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
The offense threw it 582 times. He took 10.31% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Nico Collins | 21.7% |
| Dalton Schultz | 19.17% |
| Jayden Higgins | 12.3% |
| Xavier Hutchinson ← | 10.31% |
| Christian Kirk | 9.4% |
| Woody Marks | 6.51% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 13 | 47 | 6.45 | 7.57 | 11.83% |
| Davis Mills | 3 | 10 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 8.43% |
3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 23.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.7 in those and 5.18 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 5 against BUF — 5.1 PPR on 3 targets and a 8.6% target share, in a game that finished 23-20. His worst was Week 12 against TEN at 0, on 1 targets, final score 27-32. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 14 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.8; in the 4 decided by more, 1.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 3.7 points per game. He scored 1.69, 36.2% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 29-27 | 1.3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3.2% | 15% |
| 2 | CHI | 19-13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.9% | 15% |
| 3 | MIN | 7-34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.3% | 18% |
| 5 | BUF | 23-20 | 5.1 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 8.6% | 71% |
| 6 | NE | 41-21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.5% | 50% |
| 7 | GB | 22-24 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 5.3% | 64% |
| 8 | IND | 23-20 | 2.9 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 2.8% | 62% |
| 9 | NYJ | 13-21 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10.3% | 75% |
| 10 | DET | 23-26 | 2.6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 12.5% | 84% |
| 12 | TEN | 27-32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.2% | 14% |
| 15 | MIA | 20-12 | 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | 16% |
| 16 | KC | 19-27 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2.7% | 58% |
| 17 | BAL | 2-31 | 4.1 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 12.9% | 70% |
| 18 | TEN | 23-14 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7.1% | 80% |
| Receptions | 12 |
| Targets | 26 |
| Receiving yards | 117 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 1.69 |
| Yards per target | 4.5 |
| Catch rate | 46.15% |
| Snap share | 49.43% |
| Target share | 6.02% |
| Air-yards share | 6.2% |
| WOPR | 0.134 |
| RACR | 0.574 |
| Average depth of target | 9.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.7 |
| Total YAC | 37 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 43.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.56 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 4.1% |
| End-zone target share | 6.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.76 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.76 |
The offense threw it 570 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Nico Collins | 18.17% |
| Dalton Schultz | 15.6% |
| Tank Dell | 14.86% |
| Stefon Diggs | 11.74% |
| Joe Mixon | 9.54% |
| John Metchie III | 6.79% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 13 | 24 | 1.71 | 4.67 | 5.94% |
| Davis Mills | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 7.1% |
3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 17.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.37 in those and 1.81 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 12 against JAX — 4.4 PPR on 1 targets and a 2.8% target share, in a game that finished 21-24. His worst was Week 4 against PIT at 0, on 0 targets, final score 30-6. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.8; in the 6 decided by more, 1.8. Game state made no difference to his scoring.
His usage that season was worth 3 points per game. He scored 1.83, 32.2% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 9-25 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2.3% | 9% |
| 2 | IND | 20-31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.3% | 21% |
| 4 | PIT | 30-6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 6 | NO | 20-13 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 19% |
| 9 | TB | 39-37 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 13% |
| 10 | CIN | 30-27 | 1.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.6% | 13% |
| 12 | JAX | 21-24 | 4.4 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 | 2.8% | 12% |
| 14 | NYJ | 6-30 | 3.5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 11.1% | 73% |
| 15 | TEN | 19-16 | 0.5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8.8% | 84% |
| 16 | CLE | 22-36 | 2.8 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 4.2% | 41% |
| 17 | TEN | 26-3 | 2.8 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 9.7% | 43% |
| 18 | IND | 23-19 | 1.6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 15.4% | 64% |
| Receptions | 8 |
| Targets | 19 |
| Receiving yards | 90 |
| Carries | 5 |
| Rushing yards | 49 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 1.83 |
| Yards per target | 4.74 |
| Catch rate | 42.11% |
| Yards per carry | 9.8 |
| Snap share | 32.67% |
| Target share | 4.93% |
| Air-yards share | 6.65% |
| WOPR | 0.121 |
| RACR | 0.376 |
| Average depth of target | 11.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.8 |
| Total YAC | 20 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 56.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.55 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.24 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.3% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 3.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.28 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.28 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.48 |
The offense threw it 592 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Nico Collins | 19.75% |
| Dalton Schultz | 15.94% |
| Robert Woods | 13.59% |
| Tank Dell | 13.59% |
| Noah Brown | 9.96% |
| Devin Singletary | 6.88% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 10 | 14 | 1.86 | 5.14 | 4.62% |
| Case Keenum | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 8.8% |
| Davis Mills | 1 | 2 | 2.8 | 9 | 4.2% |
3 of his 12 games were blowouts, 28.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.1 in those and 1.82 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Xavier Hutchinson →