Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 12.37 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 125.8, usage worth 9.9.
32 years old · 11 seasons of experience · 2015 draft class
| SLEEPER | 117 |
| ESPN | 138.4 |
| YAHOO | 120 |
| UNDERDOG | 103.4 |
| CBS | 127.6 |
| FFA | 118 |
| Goes around | Round 11, pick 6 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR49 |
| ADP standard deviation | 9.5 picks |
Our board has him at 155.8 points, 9.2 per game — 59 catches, 716 yards, 4.2 TDs. That is WR5, 117 overall.
He goes at 125.8 on consensus and our board has him 117. We rank him 8.8 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
Late-round dart contingent on landing spot; a reasonable 13th-round swing you can cut Week 1 if his role/team is bad. Upside is capped but the cost is nil.
buy · low conviction · 2026-06-14Washington Commanders returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing te1, oc. Jayden Daniels at quarterback, Dan Quinn as head coach, David Blough calling it. The offense projects to 30.1 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.7 rushes.
In: Antonio Williams (wr2), Brandon Aiyuk (wr3), Dyami Brown (wr5), Rachaad White (rb2), Kaytron Allen (rb4), Chig Okonkwo (te1). Out: Deebo Samuel (wr2), Austin Ekeler (rb2), Chris Rodriguez Jr (rb3), Zach Ertz (te1).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Brandon Aiyuk | 21.8% |
| Terry McLaurin | 18.6% |
| Chig Okonkwo | 10.2% |
| Antonio Williams | 9% |
| Jaylin Lane | 7.7% |
| Rachaad White | 6.2% |
What the offense looks like: Terry McLaurin has been struggling with injuries & is aging. The Commanders have young WR talent that can step up, but they are going to need it quickly. Chig Okonkwo could provide immediate help to Jayden Daniels. But Jayden has to play at a high level. I believe Jayden can be a top 5 QB in the NFL & he has not historically struggled with injuries throughout his career. There is a risk in this offense if Jayden gets hurt again, but when healthy, this is an offense that the top RB will be highly relevant, should have a productive TE, and can support fantasy relevance out of multiple WR.
Key additions: Signed RB Rachaad White from Tampa in free agency (Jayden Daniels college teammate). Signed WR Ryami Brown in free agency from Jacksonville. Signed TE Chig Okonkwo from Tennessee in free agency to 3 year deal (starter). Drafted RB Kaytron Allen in the 6th roud. Expected to sign WR Brandon Aiyuk in free agency.
Key departures: OC Kluff Kingsbury is gone afer disaster 2025 season (promoted David Blough to OC). Lost WR Deebo Samuel in free agency. Lost TE Zach Ertz due to ACL injury because Marcus Mariota got his knee exploded on a hospital ball across the middle of the field.
Notes: Williams round 3 WR could connect early with Daniels. Terry McLaurin is aging, but if he can stay healthy, he will produce over next few years. Signed TE Chig Okonkwo who could 100% produce well with Jayden Daniels but hadn't provded it with Titans yet. Jacory Croskey-Merritt is set to be 1A RB while they sign Bucs RB Rachaad White in free agency. Could function as 1B and recieving back. Very curious to see how this dynamic turns out. Brandon Aiyuk WILL SIGN with Commanders or be traded to them. Unsure if he will be good following knee surgery, but he will be in Washington next Season. Daniels top 5 SF dynasty QB. Buy him. Rookie WR Williams, WR Dyami Brown, & Treylon Burks all have a chance to operate as WR2 or 3. Only 1 can win the full time job though.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jayden Daniels returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (27.6 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.1 att/g; New OC David Blough — pass rate and tempo may shift.
Offensive environment: WAS rates 23 against a league average of 23, exactly at it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.2 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +3.6 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -3 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -7.5 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Stefon Diggs study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -24.3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 2024 | 7.1 | 60% | -33.8% |
| Tyler Lockett | 2023 | 11.9 | 58% | -28.6% |
| Amari Cooper | 2024 | 9.4 | 57% | -35.8% |
| Amari Cooper | 2023 | 15.1 | 55% | -18.9% |
| Tyreek Hill | 2024 | 12.8 | 50% | -30.5% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 0 gained value, 5 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2015, round 5, pick 146 by MIN |
| College | Maryland |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 6′0″ |
| Weight | 195 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.46s |
| Vertical | 35″ |
| Broad jump | 115″ |
| 3-cone | 7.03s |
| Shuttle | 4.32s |
| Career PPR per game | 16.6 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 19.2% |
| Bust rate | 16.4% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.28 |
His best game was Week 5 against BUF — 24.6 PPR on 12 targets and a 42.9% target share, in a game that finished 23-20. His worst was Week 12 against CIN at 4, on 3 targets, final score 26-20. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.5; in the 7 decided by more, 13.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 9.9 points per game. He scored 12.37, 15.8% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 5 against 3.93 expected, a gap of 1.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 13-20 | 11.7 | 6 | 7 | 57 | 0 | 15.6% | 41% |
| 2 | MIA | 33-27 | 7.2 | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 21.7% | 52% |
| 3 | PIT | 14-21 | 5.3 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 8.3% | 53% |
| 4 | CAR | 42-13 | 16.1 | 6 | 7 | 101 | 0 | 41.2% | 63% |
| 5 | BUF | 23-20 | 24.6 | 10 | 12 | 146 | 0 | 42.9% | 50% |
| 6 | NO | 25-19 | 5.8 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 12.5% | 59% |
| 7 | TEN | 31-13 | 13.9 | 7 | 7 | 69 | 0 | 29.2% | 54% |
| 8 | CLE | 32-13 | 10.4 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 21.7% | 51% |
| 9 | ATL | 24-23 | 12.8 | 3 | 4 | 38 | 1 | 14.3% | 60% |
| 10 | TB | 28-23 | 15.6 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 1 | 27.6% | 59% |
| 11 | NYJ | 27-14 | 19.5 | 9 | 11 | 105 | 0 | 33.3% | 69% |
| 12 | CIN | 26-20 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 9.1% | 48% |
| 13 | NYG | 33-15 | 5.6 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 13.3% | 48% |
| 15 | BUF | 31-35 | 5.6 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 18.2% | 50% |
| 16 | BAL | 28-24 | 22.8 | 9 | 10 | 138 | 0 | 23.8% | 59% |
| 17 | NYJ | 42-10 | 22.1 | 6 | 6 | 101 | 1 | 24% | 52% |
| 18 | MIA | 38-10 | 7.3 | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 | 15% | 46% |
| Receptions | 85 |
| Targets | 102 |
| Receiving yards | 1,013 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 12.37 |
| Yards per target | 9.93 |
| Catch rate | 83.33% |
| Snap share | 53.76% |
| Target share | 21.86% |
| Air-yards share | 20.16% |
| WOPR | 0.468 |
| RACR | 1.282 |
| Average depth of target | 8.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.8 |
| Total YAC | 354 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 112.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.14 |
| Red-zone targets | 13 |
| Red-zone target share | 18.3% |
| End-zone target share | 14.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.93 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.07 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 21 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 7 of 44 |
| Target share | 24 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 40 of 44 |
The offense threw it 502 times. He took 21.29% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Stefon Diggs ← | 21.29% |
| Hunter Henry | 18.16% |
| Mack Hollins | 13.57% |
| Kayshon Boutte | 9.6% |
| Demario Douglas | 9.6% |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 8.77% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 35.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.57 in those and 11.54 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 1 against IND — 21.9 PPR on 6 targets and a 19.4% target share, in a game that finished 29-27. His worst was Week 7 against GB at 7.3, on 7 targets, final score 22-24. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 2 times.
His usage that season was worth 14.2 points per game. He scored 15.24, 7.5% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 1.58 expected, a gap of 1.4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 29-27 | 21.9 | 6 | 6 | 33 | 2 | 19.4% | 77% |
| 2 | CHI | 19-13 | 7.7 | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 17.6% | 81% |
| 3 | MIN | 7-34 | 19.92 | 10 | 12 | 94 | 0 | 27.9% | 85% |
| 4 | JAX | 24-20 | 18.5 | 5 | 9 | 69 | 1 | 23.1% | 83% |
| 5 | BUF | 23-20 | 14.2 | 6 | 8 | 82 | 0 | 22.9% | 87% |
| 6 | NE | 41-21 | 19.7 | 6 | 7 | 77 | 1 | 22.6% | 79% |
| 7 | GB | 22-24 | 7.3 | 5 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 36.8% | 81% |
| 8 | IND | 23-20 | 12.7 | 5 | 9 | 81 | 0 | 25% | 54% |
| Receptions | 47 |
| Targets | 64 |
| Receiving yards | 496 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 8 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 15.24 |
| Yards per target | 7.75 |
| Catch rate | 73.44% |
| Yards per carry | 2.67 |
| Snap share | 78.38% |
| Target share | 24.41% |
| Air-yards share | 27.85% |
| WOPR | 0.56 |
| RACR | 1.206 |
| Average depth of target | 8.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.6 |
| Total YAC | 185 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 104.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.26 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.08 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.8% |
| End-zone target share | 6.5% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.58 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.42 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.14 |
The offense threw it 570 times. He took 11.74% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Nico Collins | 18.17% |
| Dalton Schultz | 15.6% |
| Tank Dell | 14.86% |
| Stefon Diggs ← | 11.74% |
| Joe Mixon | 9.54% |
| John Metchie III | 6.79% |
2 of his 8 games were blowouts, 32.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 19.81 in those and 13.72 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 4 against MIA — 36 PPR on 7 targets and a 28% target share, in a game that finished 48-20. His worst was Week 14 against KC at 6.4, on 11 targets, final score 20-17. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.8; in the 5 decided by more, 16.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 16 points per game. He scored 16.11, 4.1% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 3.08 expected, a gap of 2.9.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 16-22 | 26.2 | 10 | 13 | 102 | 1 | 33.3% | 84% |
| 2 | LV | 38-10 | 13.6 | 7 | 7 | 66 | 0 | 19.4% | 87% |
| 3 | WAS | 37-3 | 19.1 | 8 | 12 | 111 | 0 | 37.5% | 66% |
| 4 | MIA | 48-20 | 36 | 6 | 7 | 120 | 3 | 28% | 76% |
| 5 | JAX | 20-25 | 24.1 | 8 | 11 | 121 | 1 | 30.6% | 87% |
| 6 | NYG | 14-9 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 100 | 0 | 55.2% | 93% |
| 7 | NE | 25-29 | 17.8 | 6 | 12 | 58 | 1 | 30.8% | 87% |
| 8 | TB | 24-18 | 16 | 9 | 12 | 70 | 0 | 30.8% | 99% |
| 9 | CIN | 18-24 | 22.6 | 6 | 7 | 86 | 1 | 21.9% | 95% |
| 10 | DEN | 22-24 | 6.4 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 20% | 98% |
| 11 | NYJ | 32-6 | 6.7 | 4 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 27.6% | 80% |
| 12 | PHI | 34-37 | 19.4 | 6 | 11 | 74 | 1 | 22.4% | 92% |
| 14 | KC | 20-17 | 6.4 | 4 | 11 | 24 | 0 | 30.6% | 79% |
| 15 | DAL | 31-10 | 8.8 | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 38.5% | 46% |
| 16 | LAC | 24-22 | 7.9 | 5 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 38.1% | 60% |
| 17 | NE | 27-21 | 7.1 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 25% | 65% |
| 18 | MIA | 21-14 | 15.7 | 7 | 8 | 87 | 0 | 21.6% | 88% |
| Receptions | 107 |
| Targets | 160 |
| Receiving yards | 1,183 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 5 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 16.11 |
| Yards per target | 7.39 |
| Catch rate | 66.88% |
| Yards per carry | 5 |
| Snap share | 81.29% |
| Target share | 30.08% |
| Air-yards share | 31.85% |
| WOPR | 0.674 |
| RACR | 0.89 |
| Average depth of target | 10.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.3 |
| Total YAC | 399 |
| Broken tackles | 11 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 94.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.31 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.05 |
| Red-zone targets | 16 |
| Red-zone target share | 21.6% |
| End-zone target share | 23.3% |
| Red-zone carry share | 0.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.08 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.92 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.12 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 13 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 39 of 51 |
| Target share | 6 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 26 of 51 |
The offense threw it 579 times. He took 29.36% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Stefon Diggs ← | 29.36% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 16.7% |
| Gabe Davis | 14.86% |
| James Cook | 9.91% |
| Khalil Shakir | 8.26% |
| Dawson Knox | 6.61% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 30.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.84 in those and 15.8 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 2 against TEN — 44.8 PPR on 15 targets and a 38.5% target share, in a game that finished 41-7. His worst was Week 16 against CHI at 4.6, on 2 targets, final score 35-13. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 9 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.5; in the 7 decided by more, 24. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 16.4 points per game. He scored 19.79, 15.9% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 31-10 | 26.2 | 8 | 9 | 122 | 1 | 29% | 64% |
| 2 | TEN | 41-7 | 44.8 | 12 | 15 | 148 | 3 | 38.5% | 66% |
| 3 | MIA | 19-21 | 14.4 | 7 | 11 | 74 | 0 | 19.3% | 70% |
| 4 | BAL | 23-20 | 10.2 | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 | 17.6% | 95% |
| 5 | PIT | 38-3 | 24.2 | 8 | 11 | 102 | 1 | 30.6% | 77% |
| 6 | KC | 24-20 | 30.8 | 10 | 13 | 148 | 1 | 34.2% | 88% |
| 8 | GB | 27-17 | 22.8 | 6 | 8 | 108 | 1 | 32% | 80% |
| 9 | NYJ | 17-20 | 14.3 | 5 | 10 | 93 | 0 | 30.3% | 74% |
| 10 | MIN | 30-33 | 24.8 | 12 | 16 | 128 | 0 | 39% | 92% |
| 11 | CLE | 31-23 | 14.8 | 4 | 5 | 48 | 1 | 20.8% | 66% |
| 12 | DET | 28-25 | 21.7 | 8 | 15 | 77 | 1 | 38.5% | 78% |
| 13 | NE | 24-10 | 22.2 | 7 | 9 | 92 | 1 | 27.3% | 73% |
| 14 | NYJ | 20-12 | 6.7 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 18.5% | 78% |
| 15 | MIA | 32-29 | 10.7 | 5 | 9 | 60 | 0 | 23.7% | 86% |
| 16 | CHI | 35-13 | 4.6 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 8% | 67% |
| 18 | NE | 35-23 | 23.4 | 7 | 10 | 104 | 1 | 32.3% | 76% |
| Receptions | 108 |
| Targets | 154 |
| Receiving yards | 1,429 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | -3 |
| Touchdowns | 11 |
| Points per game | 19.79 |
| Yards per target | 9.28 |
| Catch rate | 70.13% |
| Yards per carry | -3 |
| Snap share | 76.88% |
| Target share | 27.48% |
| Air-yards share | 32.61% |
| WOPR | 0.641 |
| RACR | 0.884 |
| Average depth of target | 11.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.4 |
| Total YAC | 419 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 120.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.69 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.08 |
| Red-zone targets | 26 |
| Red-zone target share | 26.5% |
| End-zone target share | 38.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 6.6 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 7 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.4 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 5 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 11 of 51 |
| Target share | 13 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 18 of 51 |
The offense threw it 574 times. He took 27.95% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Stefon Diggs ← | 27.95% |
| Gabe Davis | 16.88% |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 11.8% |
| Dawson Knox | 11.8% |
| Devin Singletary | 9.44% |
| James Cook | 5.81% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 31.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 24.95 in those and 16.49 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 10 against NYJ — 30.2 PPR on 13 targets and a 46.4% target share, in a game that finished 45-17. His worst was Week 5 against KC at 8.9, on 5 targets, final score 38-20. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.6; in the 12 decided by more, 17.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 15.9 points per game. He scored 16.79, 0.4% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 10 against 8.26 expected, a gap of 1.7.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 16-23 | 15.9 | 9 | 13 | 69 | 0 | 27.1% | 93% |
| 2 | MIA | 35-0 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 60 | 1 | 27.6% | 78% |
| 3 | WAS | 43-21 | 12.2 | 6 | 10 | 62 | 0 | 23.3% | 75% |
| 4 | HOU | 40-0 | 18.4 | 7 | 11 | 114 | 0 | 35.5% | 74% |
| 5 | KC | 38-20 | 8.9 | 2 | 5 | 69 | 0 | 20.8% | 74% |
| 6 | TEN | 31-34 | 23.9 | 9 | 11 | 89 | 1 | 24.4% | 81% |
| 8 | MIA | 26-11 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 40 | 1 | 17.1% | 75% |
| 9 | JAX | 6-9 | 14.5 | 6 | 8 | 85 | 0 | 17.8% | 88% |
| 10 | NYJ | 45-17 | 30.2 | 8 | 13 | 162 | 1 | 46.4% | 79% |
| 11 | IND | 15-41 | 18.3 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 15.4% | 77% |
| 12 | NO | 31-6 | 20.4 | 7 | 9 | 74 | 1 | 34.6% | 82% |
| 13 | NE | 10-14 | 9.1 | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 | 23.3% | 95% |
| 14 | TB | 27-33 | 14.4 | 7 | 13 | 74 | 0 | 25.5% | 88% |
| 15 | CAR | 31-14 | 13.5 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 1 | 22.6% | 83% |
| 16 | NE | 33-21 | 21.5 | 7 | 13 | 85 | 1 | 30.2% | 82% |
| 17 | ATL | 29-15 | 10.2 | 5 | 9 | 52 | 0 | 37.5% | 79% |
| 18 | NYJ | 27-10 | 23.1 | 9 | 14 | 81 | 1 | 31.1% | 82% |
| Receptions | 103 |
| Targets | 164 |
| Receiving yards | 1,225 |
| Touchdowns | 10 |
| Points per game | 16.79 |
| Yards per target | 7.47 |
| Catch rate | 62.8% |
| Snap share | 81.47% |
| Target share | 27.07% |
| Air-yards share | 34.81% |
| WOPR | 0.649 |
| RACR | 0.702 |
| Average depth of target | 11.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.7 |
| Total YAC | 326 |
| Broken tackles | 7 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 90.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.88 |
| Red-zone targets | 35 |
| Red-zone target share | 27.3% |
| End-zone target share | 31.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 8.26 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 10 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.74 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 9 of 48 |
| Yards per target | 36 of 48 |
| Target share | 10 of 48 |
| Air-yards share | 11 of 48 |
The offense threw it 655 times. He took 26.37% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Stefon Diggs ← | 26.37% |
| Cole Beasley | 18.01% |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 11.58% |
| Dawson Knox | 11.41% |
| Gabe Davis | 10.13% |
| Devin Singletary | 8.04% |
9 of his 17 games were blowouts, 56.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.89 in those and 15.56 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 16 against NE — 41.5 PPR on 11 targets and a 28.9% target share, in a game that finished 38-9. His worst was Week 7 against NYJ at 10.8, on 11 targets, final score 18-10. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.8; in the 10 decided by more, 21.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 18.7 points per game. He scored 20.54, 10.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 27-17 | 16.6 | 8 | 9 | 86 | 0 | 20% | 94% |
| 2 | MIA | 31-28 | 29.3 | 8 | 13 | 153 | 1 | 37.1% | 79% |
| 3 | LA | 35-32 | 14.9 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 1 | 18.8% | 98% |
| 4 | LV | 30-23 | 17.5 | 6 | 7 | 115 | 0 | 21.9% | 92% |
| 5 | TEN | 16-42 | 20.6 | 10 | 16 | 106 | 0 | 35.6% | 83% |
| 6 | KC | 17-26 | 16.6 | 6 | 8 | 46 | 1 | 32% | 96% |
| 7 | NYJ | 18-10 | 10.8 | 6 | 11 | 48 | 0 | 26.8% | 97% |
| 8 | NE | 24-21 | 15.2 | 6 | 9 | 92 | 0 | 50% | 91% |
| 9 | SEA | 44-34 | 20.8 | 9 | 12 | 118 | 0 | 31.6% | 88% |
| 10 | ARI | 30-32 | 25.3 | 10 | 10 | 93 | 1 | 22.2% | 95% |
| 12 | LAC | 27-17 | 10.9 | 7 | 9 | 39 | 0 | 37.5% | 97% |
| 13 | SF | 34-24 | 19.2 | 10 | 10 | 92 | 0 | 27% | 95% |
| 14 | PIT | 26-15 | 29.1 | 10 | 14 | 130 | 1 | 33.3% | 93% |
| 15 | DEN | 48-19 | 25.7 | 11 | 13 | 147 | 0 | 34.2% | 92% |
| 16 | NE | 38-9 | 41.5 | 9 | 11 | 145 | 3 | 28.9% | 78% |
| 17 | MIA | 56-26 | 14.6 | 7 | 8 | 76 | 0 | 21.6% | 48% |
| Receptions | 127 |
| Targets | 166 |
| Receiving yards | 1,535 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 1 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 20.54 |
| Yards per target | 9.25 |
| Catch rate | 76.51% |
| Yards per carry | 1 |
| Snap share | 88.5% |
| Target share | 29.91% |
| Air-yards share | 33.91% |
| WOPR | 0.686 |
| RACR | 0.974 |
| Average depth of target | 10.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.4 |
| Total YAC | 464 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 115.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 5.3 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.05 |
| Red-zone targets | 19 |
| Red-zone target share | 18.3% |
| End-zone target share | 15.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.21 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.79 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 3 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 11 of 51 |
| Target share | 2 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 10 of 51 |
The offense threw it 595 times. He took 29.12% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Stefon Diggs ← | 29.12% |
| Cole Beasley | 18.77% |
| Gabe Davis | 10.88% |
| John Brown | 9.12% |
| Devin Singletary | 8.77% |
| Dawson Knox | 7.72% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 31.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 25.6 in those and 18.83 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Stefon Diggs →