Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 23.44 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 4.5, usage worth 18.7.
25 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| SLEEPER | 4.9 |
| ESPN | 3.9 |
| YAHOO | 4.5 |
| UNDERDOG | 4.1 |
| CBS | 4.5 |
| FFA | 4 |
| Goes around | Round 1, pick 5 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR2 |
| Bye week | 11 |
| ADP standard deviation | 0.4 picks |
Our board has him at 341.2 points, 20.8 per game — 117.3 catches, 1,558 yards, 9.6 TDs. That is WR1, 4 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 17.3 points per game to a ceiling of 24.6, with the median at 20.8. Boom rate 18%, bust rate 17%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 4.5 on consensus and our board has him 4. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
highest career receiving-yards-per-game average of any WR in NFL history. Fewer than 5 catches only once in 19 total games including playoffs; 8+ targets in 17 of 19. Ranked just behind Chase specifically on a slightly elevated pattern of games ended early by injury, plus a touch of off-field noise not expected to matter but adding uncertainty Chase doesn't carry.
buy · high conviction · 2026-08Los Angeles Rams returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Matthew Stafford at quarterback, Sean McVay as head coach, Nate Scheelhaase calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 26.5 rushes.
In: Ty Simpson (qb2), Jordan Whittington (wr3), Konata Mumpfield (wr4), CJ Daniels (wr5), Tyler Scott (wr7), Jarquez Hunter (rb4), Max Klare (te2). Out: Tutu Atwell (wr4), Davis Allen (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 26.9%, with a bear case of 26.1% and a bull case of 28% and a full range of 24.4% to 28.5%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Puka Nacua ← | 26.9% |
| Davante Adams | 19.1% |
| Kyren Williams | 8.7% |
| Colby Parkinson | 8.5% |
| Max Klare | 8.3% |
| Jordan Whittington | 6.4% |
What the offense looks like: The highest producers in this offense will be incredibly valuable. Ty Simpson should maintain high value in dynasty at least until he starts in 2028 after Stafford leaves.
Key additions: Ty Simpson Drafted 13th overall. TE Max Klare 2nd round. OT Keagen Trost 3rd round. CJ Daniels WR 6th round.
Key departures: RT Rob Havenstein retired.
Notes: Rams draft Ty Simpson in the 1st round but Stafford is rumored to be signing 2 year extension. Simpson likely to sit until 2028 season. Best for him for development. Stafford will play at MVP level until retires more than likely. Puka has had off field trouble and spent time in Rehab, but should be ready by week 1. Rams draft TE Max Klare early & will likely be TE1 ahead of Parkinson but may not be. RB room is confusing, Corum has potential to overtake Kyren Williams in 2026 season. Both backs hold high value if the other is hurt. Adams only has 1 or 2 more years in him.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Matthew Stafford returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Nate Scheelhaase — pass rate and tempo may shift.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~24, prior share 31.2%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 28.1%, p25-p75 [25.9%, 31.1%], tails [21.5%, 32.2%]. Closest comps: CeeDee Lamb 2023→2024 (DAL: 27.7%→28.2%); Justin Jefferson 2022→2023 (MIN: 28.0%→28.1%); Puka Nacua 2023→2024 (LA: 28.7%→32.6%). Adjustment: flat from opportunity_breakout (volume must hold)
self-anchored 58% to own 31.2% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 28.1%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: LAR rates 27 against a league average of 23, 4.1 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Read the full Puka Nacua study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +18.2% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 2022 | 16.7 | 50% | +59.4% |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2023 | 23.7 | 47% | +6.9% |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2022 | 17.7 | 46% | +55% |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2021 | 14.6 | 42% | +15% |
| Tyreek Hill | 2021 | 17.4 | 40% | -3.4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 4 gained value, 1 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 5, pick 177 by LAR |
| College | BYU |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′2″ |
| Weight | 201 lb |
| Career PPR per game | 20.4 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 20% |
| Bust rate | 11.4% |
| Games missed per season | 0.7 |
| Injury history | Ankle |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.33 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 16 against SEA — 46.5 PPR on 16 targets and a 33.3% target share, in a game that finished 37-38. His worst was Week 6 against BAL at 4.8, on 3 targets, final score 17-3. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 10 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 24.9; in the 7 decided by more, 21.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 18.7 points per game. He scored 23.44, 27.4% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 14-9 | 23.1 | 10 | 11 | 130 | 0 | 39.3% | 63% |
| 2 | TEN | 33-19 | 27.6 | 8 | 9 | 91 | 1 | 28.1% | 69% |
| 3 | PHI | 26-33 | 22.8 | 11 | 15 | 112 | 0 | 45.5% | 91% |
| 4 | IND | 27-20 | 36 | 13 | 15 | 170 | 1 | 37.5% | 81% |
| 5 | SF | 23-26 | 24.5 | 10 | 12 | 85 | 1 | 26.1% | 93% |
| 6 | BAL | 17-3 | 4.8 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 11.5% | 51% |
| 9 | NO | 34-10 | 22.8 | 7 | 8 | 95 | 1 | 25.8% | 49% |
| 10 | SF | 42-26 | 17.4 | 5 | 6 | 64 | 1 | 17.6% | 52% |
| 11 | SEA | 21-19 | 14.3 | 7 | 8 | 75 | 0 | 29.6% | 67% |
| 12 | TB | 34-7 | 16.7 | 7 | 11 | 97 | 0 | 32.4% | 82% |
| 13 | CAR | 28-31 | 13.2 | 6 | 9 | 72 | 0 | 33.3% | 73% |
| 14 | ARI | 45-17 | 35.7 | 7 | 11 | 167 | 2 | 35.5% | 44% |
| 15 | DET | 41-34 | 27.9 | 9 | 11 | 181 | 0 | 28.9% | 56% |
| 16 | SEA | 37-38 | 46.5 | 12 | 16 | 225 | 2 | 33.3% | 78% |
| 17 | ATL | 24-27 | 15.7 | 5 | 10 | 47 | 1 | 27.8% | 74% |
| 18 | ARI | 37-20 | 26 | 10 | 11 | 76 | 1 | 29.7% | 69% |
| Receptions | 129 |
| Targets | 166 |
| Receiving yards | 1,715 |
| Carries | 10 |
| Rushing yards | 105 |
| Touchdowns | 11 |
| Points per game | 23.44 |
| Yards per target | 10.33 |
| Catch rate | 77.71% |
| Yards per carry | 10.5 |
| Snap share | 68.25% |
| Target share | 30.12% |
| Air-yards share | 33.69% |
| WOPR | 0.687 |
| RACR | 1.187 |
| Average depth of target | 9.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.1 |
| Total YAC | 666 |
| Broken tackles | 11 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 127.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 7.23 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.58 |
| Red-zone targets | 21 |
| Red-zone target share | 16.7% |
| End-zone target share | 13% |
| Red-zone carry share | 4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 2.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.41 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.59 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.71 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 1 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 5 of 44 |
| Target share | 6 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 19 of 44 |
The offense threw it 597 times. He took 28.57% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Puka Nacua ← | 28.57% |
| Davante Adams | 19.62% |
| Colby Parkinson | 9.64% |
| Kyren Williams | 8.61% |
| Tyler Higbee | 6.2% |
| Davis Allen | 5.68% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 27% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 25.3 in those and 24.89 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 14 against BUF — 41.8 PPR on 14 targets and a 46.7% target share, in a game that finished 44-42. His worst was Week 9 against SEA at 2.1, on 4 targets, final score 26-20. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19.3; in the 3 decided by more, 17.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 17.6 points per game. He scored 18.78, 1.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 20-26 | 8.2 | 4 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 8.3% | 32% |
| 8 | MIN | 30-20 | 18.1 | 7 | 9 | 106 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 26.5% | 57% |
| 9 | SEA | 26-20 | 2.1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.5% | 35% |
| 10 | MIA | 15-23 | 18.8 | 9 | 14 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31.8% | 79% |
| 11 | NE | 28-22 | 25.3 | 7 | 9 | 123 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 33.3% | 75% |
| 12 | PHI | 20-37 | 20.7 | 9 | 13 | 117 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38.2% | 80% |
| 13 | NO | 21-14 | 17.3 | 5 | 8 | 56 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 34.8% | 79% |
| 14 | BUF | 44-42 | 41.8 | 12 | 14 | 162 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 46.7% | 77% |
| 15 | SF | 12-6 | 17.8 | 7 | 8 | 97 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 30.8% | 77% |
| 16 | NYJ | 19-9 | 13.6 | 8 | 9 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 47.4% | 81% |
| 17 | ARI | 13-9 | 22.9 | 10 | 14 | 129 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50% | 95% |
| Receptions | 79 |
| Targets | 106 |
| Receiving yards | 990 |
| Carries | 11 |
| Rushing yards | 46 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 18.78 |
| Yards per target | 9.34 |
| Catch rate | 74.53% |
| Yards per carry | 4.18 |
| Snap share | 69.73% |
| Target share | 32.48% |
| Air-yards share | 30.23% |
| WOPR | 0.698 |
| RACR | 2.784 |
| Average depth of target | 7.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6 |
| Total YAC | 518 |
| Broken tackles | 10 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 108.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.76 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.19 |
| Red-zone targets | 16 |
| Red-zone target share | 17% |
| End-zone target share | 10.5% |
| Red-zone carry share | 4.2% |
| Goal-line carry share | 3.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.94 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.06 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.54 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 2 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 11 of 51 |
| Target share | 3 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 26 of 51 |
The offense threw it 559 times. He took 19.59% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Puka Nacua ← | 19.59% |
| Cooper Kupp | 18.48% |
| Demarcus Robinson | 11.83% |
| Tutu Atwell | 11.46% |
| Colby Parkinson | 9.06% |
| Tyler Johnson | 7.58% |
1 of his 11 games were blowouts, 10% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 20.7 in those and 19.28 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 16 against NO — 33 PPR on 11 targets and a 34.4% target share, in a game that finished 30-22. His worst was Week 9 against GB at 6.2, on 7 targets, final score 3-20. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 20.6; in the 7 decided by more, 13.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 16.2 points per game. He scored 17.56, 13.5% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 30-13 | 21.9 | 10 | 15 | 119 | 0 | 40.5% | 78% |
| 2 | SF | 23-30 | 30.1 | 15 | 20 | 147 | 0 | 38.5% | 86% |
| 3 | CIN | 16-19 | 12.2 | 5 | 7 | 72 | 0 | 21.9% | 96% |
| 4 | IND | 29-23 | 31.3 | 9 | 10 | 163 | 1 | 25.6% | 95% |
| 5 | PHI | 14-23 | 20.1 | 7 | 11 | 71 | 1 | 32.4% | 100% |
| 6 | ARI | 26-9 | 6.6 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 33.3% | 96% |
| 7 | PIT | 17-24 | 23.4 | 8 | 12 | 154 | 0 | 44.4% | 93% |
| 8 | DAL | 20-43 | 7.3 | 3 | 7 | 43 | 0 | 21.9% | 92% |
| 9 | GB | 3-20 | 6.2 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 25.9% | 81% |
| 11 | SEA | 17-16 | 18.7 | 5 | 7 | 70 | 1 | 24.1% | 88% |
| 12 | ARI | 37-14 | 6.7 | 4 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 25.8% | 81% |
| 13 | CLE | 36-19 | 23.9 | 4 | 7 | 105 | 1 | 20.6% | 63% |
| 14 | BAL | 31-37 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 84 | 0 | 23.1% | 94% |
| 15 | WAS | 28-20 | 10.3 | 5 | 8 | 50 | 0 | 25% | 100% |
| 16 | NO | 30-22 | 33 | 9 | 11 | 164 | 1 | 34.4% | 99% |
| 17 | NYG | 26-25 | 18.7 | 5 | 8 | 118 | 0 | 23.5% | 98% |
| 18 | SF | 21-20 | 14.1 | 4 | 6 | 41 | 1 | 26.1% | 43% |
| Receptions | 105 |
| Targets | 160 |
| Receiving yards | 1,486 |
| Carries | 12 |
| Rushing yards | 89 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 17.56 |
| Yards per target | 9.29 |
| Catch rate | 65.63% |
| Yards per carry | 7.42 |
| Snap share | 87.24% |
| Target share | 28.65% |
| Air-yards share | 31.43% |
| WOPR | 0.651 |
| RACR | 1.094 |
| Average depth of target | 9.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.1 |
| Total YAC | 632 |
| Broken tackles | 7 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 100.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.99 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.23 |
| Red-zone targets | 16 |
| Red-zone target share | 19.5% |
| End-zone target share | 22.6% |
| Red-zone carry share | 4.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.69 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.69 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.2 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 6 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 13 of 51 |
| Target share | 11 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 28 of 51 |
The offense threw it 583 times. He took 28.83% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Puka Nacua ← | 28.83% |
| Cooper Kupp | 17.12% |
| Tyler Higbee | 12.61% |
| Tutu Atwell | 12.07% |
| Kyren Williams | 8.65% |
| Demarcus Robinson | 7.03% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 15 | 147 | 18.55 | 9.61 | 29% |
| Brett Rypien | 1 | 7 | 6.2 | 4.57 | 25.9% |
| Carson Wentz | 1 | 6 | 14.1 | 6.83 | 26.1% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 24.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.1 in those and 20.58 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Puka Nacua →