Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 12.4 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 69.8, usage worth 12.6.
25 years old · 5 seasons of experience · 2021 draft class
| SLEEPER | 68.5 |
| ESPN | 65.9 |
| YAHOO | 73.7 |
| UNDERDOG | 104.1 |
| CBS | 71.1 |
| FFA | 93 |
| Goes around | Round 6, pick 10 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE6 |
| Bye week | 11 |
| ADP standard deviation | 3.4 picks |
Our board has him at 154.8 points, 10.2 per game — 62.5 catches, 689 yards, 3.9 TDs. That is TE3, 92 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 7.2 points per game to a ceiling of 15.3, with the median at 10.2. Boom rate 50%, bust rate 30%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 69.8 on consensus and our board has him 92. We rank him 22.2 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
his final top-6 adjusted-PPG finish is called explicitly misleading, heavily inflated by a single 40-point outlier game; in the twelve games his teammate (Drake London) was healthy, he was averaging only mid-tier TE2 production. His outcome is almost entirely contingent on London missing time again, which can't be planned around.
buy · medium conviction · 2026-08Atlanta Falcons returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Michael Penix Jr at quarterback, Kevin Stefanski as head coach, Tommy Rees calling it. The offense projects to 32.8 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.2 rushes.
In: Tua Tagovailoa (qb2), Olamide Zaccheaus (wr2), Zachariah Branch (wr3), Jahan Dotson (wr4), Brian Robinson Jr (rb2), Tyler Goodson (rb3), Carter Nathan (rb4), Austin Hooper (te2). Out: Kirk Cousins (qb2), Darnell Mooney (wr2), David Sills V (wr4), Ray-Ray McCloud III (wr5), Dylan Drummond (wr6), Khadarel Hodge (wr7), Tyler Allgeier (rb2), Nathan Carter (rb3), Charlie Woerner (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 16.9%, with a bear case of 15.9% and a bull case of 17.7% and a full range of 14.5% to 18.7%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Drake London | 24.2% |
| Kyle Pitts ← | 16.9% |
| Bijan Robinson | 14.5% |
| Austin Hooper | 10.3% |
| Zachariah Branch | 8.4% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 7.4% |
What the offense looks like: Bijan Robinson has been able to produce redardless of poor QB play in ATL. Drake London has had flashes & the talent is clearly there, but needs better QB play. Perhaps Penix Jr fully recovers from 2nd ACL tear & proves he is the franchise QB. OR there is a SMALL chance Tua turns his career around and can elevate this offense. Unlikely. Despite what most fans think, the falcons have not committed to a starting QB, there is a decent chance their franchise QB is neither Penix or Tua.
Key additions: Tua Tagovailoa signed on 1 year veteran minumum deal. WR Jahan Dotson 2 year $15M deal. TE Austin Hooper 1 year deal to back up Pitts. WR Olamide Zaccheaus returns to ATL. OL Jawaan Taylor signed 1 year deal. Zachariah Branch WR Georgia 3rd Round draft pick.
Key departures: Drew Dalman (starting Center) left to Chicago Bears & RT Kaleb McGary retired aftr missing entire 2025 season. Elijah Wilkinson Starting RT left in free agency. Kirk Cousins left to Las Vegas. Tyler Allgeier left to Arizona. WR Darnell Mooney released after regression & heads to NY Giants.
Notes: Falcons signed Tua Tagovailoa after release from Dolphins. Penix may be ready week 1 but possible he is no longer the starter. This will be determined in camp. New HC: Kevin Stefanski from Browns. Tommy Rees is new OC. Followed Stefanski from Cleveland. Bijan & London are core offensive players. Pitts wants long term exension, but was franchise tagged (could be traded). Branch round 3 Georgia WR adds speed & could produce early. Brian Robinson Jr is a valuable handcuff for Bijan Robinson but shouldn't have stand alone value. London clear WR1, Zaccheaus returns in free agency. Jahan Dotson (former 1st round pick) added in free agency. Zachariah Branch could see large volume as a rookie if develops quickly. QB play may still hold team back. Olamide Zaccheaus is a player that should be rostered in all leagues as a real sleeper. Highly productive player in Chicago that COULD pop early if Branch is a slow bloomer & Dotson is a nothing burger.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Michael Penix Jr returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.1 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.8 att/g; New OC Tommy Rees — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Kevin Stefanski.
25 historical comps for TEs age ~26, prior share 19.2%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 18.4%, p25-p75 [15.7%, 20.5%], tails [12.0%, 23.2%]. Closest comps: Mike Gesicki 2021→2022 (MIA: 17.5%→9.4%); Dallas Goedert 2021→2022 (PHI: 19.5%→20.5%); Dallas Goedert 2022→2023 (PHI: 20.1%→19.4%). Adjustment: flat from opportunity_breakout (volume must hold)
self-anchored 58% to own 19.2% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 18.4%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: ATL rates 21.5 against a league average of 23, 1.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +1 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +2.1 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -1.4 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +5.6 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Kyle Pitts study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +60.3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, TEs crash the following year 47% of the time (hold 53%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 47% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet | 2023 | 11.3 | 63% | -15.2% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2023 | 14.6 | 63% | -15.2% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2022 | 12.8 | 62% | +30% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2024 | 10 | 57% | -18.5% |
| David Njoku | 2024 | 13.5 | 54% | -21.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2021, round 1, pick 4 by ATL |
| College | Florida |
| Age at draft | 20 |
| Height | 6′5″ |
| Weight | 245 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.44s |
| Vertical | 33.5″ |
| Broad jump | 129″ |
| 3-cone | 7.12s |
| Shuttle | 4.3s |
| Career PPR per game | 9.7 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.8 |
| Boom rate | 27% |
| Bust rate | 30.2% |
| Games missed per season | 0.2 |
| Injury history | Hamstring |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.21 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 15 against TB — 45.6 PPR on 12 targets and a 29.3% target share, in a game that finished 29-28. His worst was Week 11 against CAR at 3.4, on 3 targets, final score 27-30. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.3; in the 7 decided by more, 9.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 12.6 points per game. He scored 12.4, 1.6% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 5 against 2.86 expected, a gap of 2.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 20-23 | 12.9 | 7 | 8 | 59 | 0 | 19% | 78% |
| 2 | MIN | 22-6 | 7.7 | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 23.8% | 80% |
| 3 | CAR | 0-30 | 7.9 | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 14.6% | 82% |
| 4 | WAS | 34-27 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 70 | 1 | 19.2% | 74% |
| 6 | BUF | 24-14 | 4.8 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 12.9% | 93% |
| 7 | SF | 10-20 | 13.2 | 7 | 10 | 62 | 0 | 27.8% | 82% |
| 8 | MIA | 10-34 | 14.9 | 9 | 9 | 59 | 0 | 30% | 92% |
| 9 | NE | 23-24 | 7.8 | 4 | 7 | 38 | 0 | 20.6% | 95% |
| 10 | IND | 25-31 | 5.8 | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 20% | 92% |
| 11 | CAR | 27-30 | 3.4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 10.3% | 83% |
| 12 | NO | 24-10 | 4.5 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 25% | 95% |
| 13 | NYJ | 24-27 | 15.2 | 7 | 8 | 82 | 0 | 25.8% | 91% |
| 14 | SEA | 9-37 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 90 | 0 | 35.7% | 92% |
| 15 | TB | 29-28 | 45.6 | 11 | 12 | 166 | 3 | 29.3% | 96% |
| 16 | ARI | 26-19 | 18.7 | 7 | 9 | 57 | 1 | 26.5% | 87% |
| 17 | LA | 27-24 | 3.6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 15% | 92% |
| 18 | NO | 19-17 | 11.8 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 0 | 30% | 92% |
| Receptions | 88 |
| Targets | 118 |
| Receiving yards | 928 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 12.4 |
| Yards per target | 7.86 |
| Catch rate | 74.58% |
| Snap share | 88% |
| Target share | 22.68% |
| Air-yards share | 21.61% |
| WOPR | 0.493 |
| RACR | 1.344 |
| Average depth of target | 7.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6 |
| Total YAC | 400 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 100.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.45 |
| Red-zone targets | 12 |
| Red-zone target share | 19.7% |
| End-zone target share | 17.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.86 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.14 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 3 of 13 |
| Yards per target | 6 of 13 |
| Target share | 3 of 13 |
| Air-yards share | 3 of 13 |
The offense threw it 545 times. He took 22.78% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Kyle Pitts ← | 22.78% |
| Drake London | 21.62% |
| Bijan Robinson | 19.88% |
| Darnell Mooney | 13.9% |
| David Sills | 6.95% |
| Tyler Allgeier | 3.09% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix | 9 | 53 | 9.06 | 7.08 | 18.69% |
| Kirk Cousins | 8 | 65 | 16.16 | 8.51 | 27.16% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 17.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.6 in those and 14.28 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 8 against TB — 25.1 PPR on 5 targets and a 17.9% target share, in a game that finished 31-26. His worst was Week 13 against LAC at 0, on 2 targets, final score 13-17. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.5; in the 5 decided by more, 5.9. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7.7 points per game. He scored 7.72, 0.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 10-18 | 11.6 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 13% | 96% |
| 2 | PHI | 22-21 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 13.8% | 74% |
| 3 | KC | 17-22 | 7.9 | 2 | 5 | 59 | 0 | 18.5% | 69% |
| 4 | NO | 26-24 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8.8% | 68% |
| 5 | TB | 36-30 | 15.8 | 7 | 8 | 88 | 0 | 14.8% | 85% |
| 6 | CAR | 38-20 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 70 | 0 | 17.2% | 64% |
| 7 | SEA | 14-34 | 13.5 | 7 | 9 | 65 | 0 | 25% | 75% |
| 8 | TB | 31-26 | 25.1 | 4 | 5 | 91 | 2 | 17.9% | 48% |
| 9 | DAL | 27-21 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4.2% | 54% |
| 10 | NO | 17-20 | 9.5 | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 | 16.2% | 51% |
| 11 | DEN | 6-38 | 1.9 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 10.3% | 75% |
| 13 | LAC | 13-17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.3% | 41% |
| 14 | MIN | 21-42 | 2.4 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 16.2% | 78% |
| 15 | LV | 15-9 | 6.8 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 25% | 40% |
| 16 | NYG | 34-7 | 1.7 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7.7% | 45% |
| 17 | WAS | 24-30 | 14.4 | 4 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 14.3% | 47% |
| 18 | CAR | 38-44 | 3.5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 8.1% | 44% |
| Receptions | 47 |
| Targets | 74 |
| Receiving yards | 602 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 7.72 |
| Yards per target | 8.14 |
| Catch rate | 63.51% |
| Snap share | 62% |
| Target share | 13.9% |
| Air-yards share | 15.21% |
| WOPR | 0.315 |
| RACR | 1.45 |
| Average depth of target | 8.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7 |
| Total YAC | 272 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 84.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.41 |
| Red-zone targets | 13 |
| Red-zone target share | 21.3% |
| End-zone target share | 28.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.7 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.7 |
The offense threw it 559 times. He took 13.73% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Drake London | 29.31% |
| Darnell Mooney | 19.67% |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 16.14% |
| Kyle Pitts ← | 13.73% |
| Bijan Robinson | 13.36% |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2.41% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 14 | 64 | 7.97 | 8.38 | 14.73% |
| Michael Penix | 3 | 10 | 6.53 | 6.6 | 10.03% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 22.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.9 in those and 8.47 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 5 against HOU — 15.7 PPR on 11 targets and a 28.9% target share, in a game that finished 21-19. His worst was Week 17 against CHI at 1.5, on 5 targets, final score 17-37. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.4; in the 7 decided by more, 6.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 9.2 points per game. He scored 8.08, 11.8% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 24-10 | 6.4 | 2 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 16.7% | 62% |
| 2 | GB | 25-24 | 3.5 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 16.7% | 70% |
| 3 | DET | 6-20 | 8.7 | 5 | 9 | 41 | 0 | 23.7% | 78% |
| 4 | JAX | 7-23 | 4.1 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 13.3% | 64% |
| 5 | HOU | 21-19 | 15.7 | 7 | 11 | 87 | 0 | 28.9% | 53% |
| 6 | WAS | 16-24 | 14.3 | 4 | 6 | 43 | 1 | 13.6% | 55% |
| 7 | TB | 16-13 | 7.7 | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 21.7% | 52% |
| 8 | TEN | 23-28 | 6.5 | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 15.2% | 60% |
| 9 | MIN | 28-31 | 9.6 | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 14.7% | 57% |
| 10 | ARI | 23-25 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 26.3% | 70% |
| 12 | NO | 24-15 | 4.2 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 10% | 50% |
| 13 | NYJ | 13-8 | 9.1 | 4 | 8 | 51 | 0 | 32% | 66% |
| 14 | TB | 25-29 | 14.7 | 3 | 6 | 57 | 1 | 15.4% | 85% |
| 15 | CAR | 7-9 | 6.7 | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 21.1% | 65% |
| 16 | IND | 29-10 | 13.9 | 3 | 4 | 49 | 1 | 12.5% | 72% |
| 17 | CHI | 17-37 | 1.5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 15.6% | 73% |
| 18 | NO | 17-48 | 4.7 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 8.8% | 64% |
| Receptions | 53 |
| Targets | 90 |
| Receiving yards | 667 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | -4 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 8.08 |
| Yards per target | 7.41 |
| Catch rate | 58.89% |
| Yards per carry | -4 |
| Snap share | 64.47% |
| Target share | 18.01% |
| Air-yards share | 26.44% |
| WOPR | 0.455 |
| RACR | 0.715 |
| Average depth of target | 11.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.1 |
| Total YAC | 134 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 83.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.02 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.1 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.8% |
| End-zone target share | 10.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.29 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.29 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 13 of 14 |
| Yards per target | 7 of 14 |
| Target share | 10 of 14 |
| Air-yards share | 1 of 14 |
The offense threw it 530 times. He took 17.86% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Drake London | 21.83% |
| Kyle Pitts ← | 17.86% |
| Bijan Robinson | 17.06% |
| Jonnu Smith | 13.89% |
| Mack Hollins | 5.95% |
| Van Jefferson | 5.56% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 12 | 66 | 8.32 | 7.45 | 18.49% |
| Taylor Heinicke | 5 | 24 | 7.5 | 7.29 | 16.86% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 14.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.7 in those and 9.38 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 8 against CAR — 19 PPR on 9 targets and a 32.1% target share, in a game that finished 37-34. His worst was Week 4 against CLE at 3.5, on 4 targets, final score 23-20. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8; in the 3 decided by more, 6.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 10.3 points per game. He scored 7.56, 26.8% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 26-27 | 3.9 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 21.9% | 84% |
| 2 | LA | 27-31 | 3.9 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 12% | 93% |
| 3 | SEA | 27-23 | 13.7 | 5 | 8 | 87 | 0 | 42.1% | 67% |
| 4 | CLE | 23-20 | 3.5 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 22.2% | 62% |
| 6 | SF | 28-14 | 10.9 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 21.4% | 57% |
| 7 | CIN | 17-35 | 3.9 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 41.7% | 79% |
| 8 | CAR | 37-34 | 19 | 5 | 9 | 80 | 1 | 32.1% | 75% |
| 9 | LAC | 17-20 | 4.7 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 30.4% | 69% |
| 10 | CAR | 15-25 | 4.8 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 27.6% | 89% |
| 11 | CHI | 27-24 | 7.3 | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 27.8% | 44% |
| Receptions | 28 |
| Targets | 59 |
| Receiving yards | 356 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 7.56 |
| Yards per target | 6.03 |
| Catch rate | 47.46% |
| Snap share | 71.9% |
| Target share | 27.92% |
| Air-yards share | 31.05% |
| WOPR | 0.636 |
| RACR | 0.649 |
| Average depth of target | 13.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.2 |
| Total YAC | 126 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 71 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.34 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.2% |
| End-zone target share | 18.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.63 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.37 |
The offense threw it 415 times. He took 14.82% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Drake London | 29.4% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 15.33% |
| Kyle Pitts ← | 14.82% |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 7.79% |
| Damiere Byrd | 5.78% |
| MyCole Pruitt | 5.28% |
1 of his 10 games were blowouts, 5.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.9 in those and 8 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 5 against NYJ — 26.9 PPR on 10 targets and a 22.2% target share, in a game that finished 27-20. His worst was Week 18 against NO at 2.8, on 5 targets, final score 20-30. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.1; in the 8 decided by more, 8.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 11.3 points per game. He scored 10.39, 8% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 3.7 expected, a gap of -2.7.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 6-32 | 7.1 | 4 | 8 | 31 | 0 | 24.2% | 68% |
| 2 | TB | 25-48 | 12.3 | 5 | 6 | 73 | 0 | 12.5% | 79% |
| 3 | NYG | 17-14 | 5.5 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 8.3% | 84% |
| 4 | WAS | 30-34 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 50 | 0 | 22.5% | 72% |
| 5 | NYJ | 27-20 | 26.9 | 9 | 10 | 119 | 1 | 22.2% | 69% |
| 7 | MIA | 30-28 | 23.3 | 7 | 8 | 163 | 0 | 20.5% | 67% |
| 8 | CAR | 13-19 | 3.3 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 22.2% | 83% |
| 9 | NO | 27-25 | 9.2 | 3 | 7 | 62 | 0 | 23.3% | 75% |
| 10 | DAL | 3-43 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 60 | 0 | 25.9% | 61% |
| 11 | NE | 0-25 | 5.9 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 16.1% | 81% |
| 12 | JAX | 21-14 | 4.6 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 21.4% | 78% |
| 13 | TB | 17-30 | 8.8 | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 17.5% | 94% |
| 14 | CAR | 29-21 | 11.1 | 5 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 22.2% | 54% |
| 15 | SF | 13-31 | 11.7 | 4 | 7 | 77 | 0 | 23.3% | 82% |
| 16 | DET | 20-16 | 16.2 | 6 | 6 | 102 | 0 | 27.3% | 78% |
| 17 | BUF | 15-29 | 8.9 | 2 | 4 | 69 | 0 | 20% | 51% |
| 18 | NO | 20-30 | 2.8 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 16.1% | 74% |
| Receptions | 68 |
| Targets | 110 |
| Receiving yards | 1,026 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 10.39 |
| Yards per target | 9.33 |
| Catch rate | 61.82% |
| Snap share | 73.53% |
| Target share | 20.32% |
| Air-yards share | 29.64% |
| WOPR | 0.512 |
| RACR | 0.869 |
| Average depth of target | 10.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.5 |
| Total YAC | 313 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 76.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.55 |
| Red-zone targets | 15 |
| Red-zone target share | 18.1% |
| End-zone target share | 18.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.7 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -2.7 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 9 of 15 |
| Yards per target | 2 of 15 |
| Target share | 6 of 15 |
| Air-yards share | 2 of 15 |
The offense threw it 573 times. He took 20.22% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Kyle Pitts ← | 20.22% |
| Russell Gage | 17.28% |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 12.68% |
| Mike Davis | 10.66% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 9.74% |
| Calvin Ridley | 9.56% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 26.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.4 in those and 12.12 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Kyle Pitts →