Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 7.11 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 169.8, usage worth 5.9.
33 years old · 10 seasons of experience · 2016 draft class
Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 169.8
Consensus across 1 books, 0 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on underdog, priciest on espn.
ESPN
169.8
UNDERDOG
216
FFA
245
Draft-room facts
Goes around
Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rank
TE30
2026 schedule
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
Full season
-0.6 · neutral
Weeks 1–6
-5.3 · harder
Weeks 12–17
+2.8 · easier
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)
+8.6 · easier
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
What happened when he missed time
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
Season
Games missed
Main beneficiary
Their PPR gain
2023
2
Davis Allen
+10
2024
3
Hunter Long
+3.2
Dynasty context not redraft
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle
His dynasty value has moved +39.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, TEs crash the following year 47% of the time (hold 53%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 47% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
Player
Season
Their PPG
Similarity
Next year
Austin Hooper
2024
6.4
58%
-14.1%
Tyler Conklin
2024
7.6
52%
-29.8%
Dalton Schultz
2024
7
50%
+11.1%
Austin Hooper
2023
3
50%
+46.1%
Mike Gesicki
2024
8.8
50%
-15.8%
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
Four years of dynasty value
Monthly superflex value, 2020-04 to 2026-07. Down 33% across the series, peaking at 3,299.
The player
Draft capital and athletic profile
Drafted
2016, round 4, pick 110 by LAR
College
Western Kentucky
Age at draft
23
Height
6′6″
Weight
249 lb
40-yard dash
4.77s
Availability and volatility
Career PPR per game
8.4
Week-to-week variation
0.7
Boom rate
21.4%
Bust rate
25%
Games missed per season
0.6
Injury history
Neck, Shoulder, Hip
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
The record, season by season
2025 · LA · 10 games
His best game was Week 18 against ARI — 20.1 PPR on 6 targets and a 16.2% target share, in a game that finished 37-20. His worst was Week 3 against PHI at 0, on 2 targets, final score 26-33. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2; in the 6 decided by more, 10.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
Earned against scored
His usage that season was worth 5.9 points per game. He scored 7.11, 9.4% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
Wk
Opp
Score
PPR
Rec
Tgt
Yds
TD
Tgt%
Snap%
1
HOU
14-9
0
0
0
0
0
0%
58%
2
TEN
33-19
7.7
4
4
37
0
12.5%
75%
3
PHI
26-33
0
0
2
0
0
6.1%
55%
4
IND
27-20
4.5
2
5
25
0
12.5%
55%
6
BAL
17-3
14
4
4
40
1
15.4%
66%
7
JAX
35-7
4.9
3
6
19
0
18.2%
37%
9
NO
34-10
10.3
3
4
13
1
12.9%
52%
10
SF
42-26
6.3
3
3
33
0
8.8%
54%
11
SEA
21-19
3.3
1
2
23
0
7.4%
39%
18
ARI
37-20
20.1
5
6
91
1
16.2%
64%
Production
Receptions
25
Targets
36
Receiving yards
281
Touchdowns
3
Points per game
7.11
Yards per target
7.81
Catch rate
69.44%
Role
Snap share
55.5%
Target share
11%
Air-yards share
0.86%
WOPR
0.173
RACR
3.187
Efficiency
Average depth of target
5.9
Yards after catch per reception
5.6
Yards before catch per reception
5.6
Total YAC
140
Broken tackles
0
Drop rate
0.1%
Passer rating when targeted
120.3
Receiving EPA per game
0.94
Scoring position
Red-zone targets
10
Red-zone target share
7.9%
End-zone target share
3.7%
Expected receiving TDs
2.27
Actual receiving TDs
2
Receiving TD luck
-0.27
Who else ate
The offense threw it 597 times. He took 6.2% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
Puka Nacua
28.57%
Davante Adams
19.62%
Colby Parkinson
9.64%
Kyren Williams
8.61%
Tyler Higbee ←
6.2%
Davis Allen
5.68%
Blowouts against close games
3 of his 10 games were blowouts, 49.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.77 in those and 1.95 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
2024 · LA · 3 games
Earned against scored
His usage that season was worth 9.6 points per game. He scored 8.87, 16.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
Wk
Opp
Score
PPR
Rec
Tgt
Yds
TD
Tgt%
Snap%
16
NYJ
19-9
8.1
1
2
11
1
10.5%
27%
17
ARI
13-9
2.9
2
3
9
0
10.7%
30%
18
SEA
25-30
15.6
5
7
46
1
17.5%
41%
Production
Receptions
8
Targets
12
Receiving yards
66
Touchdowns
2
Points per game
8.87
Yards per target
5.5
Catch rate
66.67%
Role
Snap share
32.67%
Target share
12.9%
Air-yards share
6.4%
WOPR
0.24
RACR
2.23
Efficiency
Average depth of target
2.2
Yards after catch per reception
6
Yards before catch per reception
2.3
Total YAC
48
Broken tackles
0
Drop rate
0%
Passer rating when targeted
120.1
Receiving EPA per game
1.65
Scoring position
Red-zone targets
11
Red-zone target share
11.7%
End-zone target share
5.3%
Expected receiving TDs
2.93
Actual receiving TDs
3
Receiving TD luck
0.07
Who else ate
The offense threw it 559 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
Puka Nacua
19.59%
Cooper Kupp
18.48%
Demarcus Robinson
11.83%
Tutu Atwell
11.46%
Colby Parkinson
9.06%
Tyler Johnson
7.58%
By quarterback
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
QB
Games
Targets
PPG
Y/T
Tgt%
Matthew Stafford
2
5
5.5
4
10.6%
Jimmy Garoppolo
1
7
15.6
6.57
17.5%
2023 · LA · 15 games
His best game was Week 12 against ARI — 19.9 PPR on 5 targets and a 16.1% target share, in a game that finished 37-14. His worst was Week 9 against GB at 0, on 1 targets, final score 3-20. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.2; in the 7 decided by more, 7.2. Game state made no difference to his scoring.
Earned against scored
His usage that season was worth 7.7 points per game. He scored 7.23, 11.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
Wk
Opp
Score
PPR
Rec
Tgt
Yds
TD
Tgt%
Snap%
1
SEA
30-13
7.9
3
3
49
0
8.1%
91%
2
SF
23-30
4.2
3
7
12
0
13.5%
93%
3
CIN
16-19
12.1
5
5
71
0
15.6%
96%
4
IND
29-23
11.4
5
11
64
0
28.2%
94%
5
PHI
14-23
4
2
3
20
0
8.8%
89%
6
ARI
26-9
3.8
2
3
18
0
14.3%
95%
7
PIT
17-24
1.7
1
3
7
0
11.1%
90%
8
DAL
20-43
9.5
5
7
45
0
21.9%
87%
9
GB
3-20
0
0
1
0
0
3.7%
91%
11
SEA
17-16
2.7
1
3
17
0
10.3%
99%
12
ARI
37-14
19.9
5
5
29
2
16.1%
75%
13
CLE
36-19
5.5
2
4
35
0
11.8%
67%
15
WAS
28-20
7.6
4
5
36
0
15.6%
63%
16
NO
30-22
6
3
3
30
0
9.4%
74%
17
NYG
26-25
12.2
6
7
62
0
20.6%
94%
Production
Receptions
47
Targets
70
Receiving yards
495
Touchdowns
2
Points per game
7.23
Yards per target
7.07
Catch rate
67.14%
Role
Snap share
86.53%
Target share
13.93%
Air-yards share
10.79%
WOPR
0.285
RACR
1.695
Efficiency
Average depth of target
5.8
Yards after catch per reception
5.2
Yards before catch per reception
5.3
Total YAC
246
Broken tackles
2
Drop rate
0.1%
Passer rating when targeted
97
Receiving EPA per game
1.25
Scoring position
Red-zone targets
5
Red-zone target share
6.1%
End-zone target share
3.2%
Expected receiving TDs
1.43
Actual receiving TDs
2
Receiving TD luck
0.57
Who else ate
The offense threw it 583 times. He took 12.61% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
Puka Nacua
28.83%
Cooper Kupp
17.12%
Tyler Higbee ←
12.61%
Tutu Atwell
12.07%
Kyren Williams
8.65%
Demarcus Robinson
7.03%
By quarterback
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
QB
Games
Targets
PPG
Y/T
Tgt%
Matthew Stafford
14
69
7.75
7.17
14.66%
Brett Rypien
1
1
0
0
3.7%
Blowouts against close games
6 of his 15 games were blowouts, 43% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.77 in those and 7.24 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
2022 · LA · 16 games
His best game was Week 16 against DEN — 30.4 PPR on 11 targets and a 39.3% target share, in a game that finished 51-14. His worst was Week 9 against TB at 0, on 1 targets, final score 13-16. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.6; in the 9 decided by more, 11.7. He scored more when the game was not close.
Earned against scored
His usage that season was worth 11.8 points per game. He scored 9.5, 19.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 4.06 expected, a gap of -1.1.
Wk
Opp
Score
PPR
Rec
Tgt
Yds
TD
Tgt%
Snap%
1
BUF
10-31
8.9
5
11
39
0
26.8%
94%
2
ATL
31-27
14.1
7
9
71
0
25.7%
97%
3
ARI
20-12
10.1
4
4
61
0
16%
94%
4
SF
9-24
17.3
10
14
73
0
29.2%
93%
5
DAL
10-22
11.6
7
10
46
0
23.8%
97%
6
CAR
24-10
1.7
1
2
7
0
6.5%
78%
8
SF
14-31
3.5
2
6
15
0
18.8%
69%
9
TB
13-16
0
0
1
0
0
3.8%
79%
10
ARI
17-27
15.3
8
8
73
0
21.6%
80%
11
NO
20-27
8.5
4
8
45
0
29.6%
92%
13
SEA
23-27
3.4
2
5
14
0
20%
84%
14
LV
17-16
3.1
2
3
11
0
8.8%
95%
15
GB
12-24
12.7
4
5
27
1
25%
89%
16
DEN
51-14
30.4
9
11
94
2
39.3%
91%
17
LAC
10-31
4.1
3
4
11
0
22.2%
90%
18
SEA
16-19
7.3
4
7
33
0
29.2%
89%
Production
Receptions
72
Targets
108
Receiving yards
620
Touchdowns
3
Points per game
9.5
Yards per target
5.74
Catch rate
66.67%
Role
Snap share
88.19%
Target share
21.64%
Air-yards share
9.32%
WOPR
0.391
RACR
1.592
Efficiency
Average depth of target
3
Yards after catch per reception
5.6
Yards before catch per reception
3
Total YAC
404
Broken tackles
3
Drop rate
0.1%
Passer rating when targeted
79.2
Receiving EPA per game
0.31
Scoring position
Red-zone targets
16
Red-zone target share
23.5%
End-zone target share
20.7%
Expected receiving TDs
4.06
Actual receiving TDs
3
Receiving TD luck
-1.06
Where that ranked
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
Points per game
9 of 11
Yards per target
11 of 11
Target share
3 of 11
Air-yards share
11 of 11
Who else ate
The offense threw it 529 times. He took 20.93% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
Tyler Higbee ←
20.93%
Cooper Kupp
18.99%
Ben Skowronek
11.82%
Allen Robinson
10.08%
Van Jefferson
8.53%
Tutu Atwell
6.78%
By quarterback
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
QB
Games
Targets
PPG
Y/T
Tgt%
Matthew Stafford
9
65
8.41
5.49
20.02%
Baker Mayfield
5
30
11.52
5.87
24.9%
John Wolford
2
13
9.35
6.69
20.8%
Blowouts against close games
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 30.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.72 in those and 6.64 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
2021 · LA · 15 games
His best game was Week 18 against SF — 23.5 PPR on 8 targets and a 25% target share, in a game that finished 24-27. His worst was Week 12 against GB at 1.3, on 5 targets, final score 28-36. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.7; in the 10 decided by more, 9.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
Earned against scored
His usage that season was worth 9.6 points per game. He scored 9.8, 3.1% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
Wk
Opp
Score
PPR
Rec
Tgt
Yds
TD
Tgt%
Snap%
1
CHI
34-14
11.8
5
6
68
0
23.1%
100%
2
IND
27-24
1.8
1
1
8
0
3.4%
100%
3
TB
34-24
15
5
5
40
1
13.2%
75%
4
ARI
20-37
7.6
4
6
36
0
14.6%
79%
5
SEA
26-17
9.4
2
2
14
1
5.7%
84%
6
NYG
38-11
8.6
5
5
36
0
16.7%
100%
7
DET
28-19
9.6
5
8
46
0
19.5%
100%
8
HOU
38-22
5.5
3
3
25
0
8.8%
69%
9
TEN
16-28
10.1
5
10
51
0
21.3%
97%
10
SF
10-31
11
3
5
20
1
11.9%
98%
12
GB
28-36
1.3
1
5
3
0
12.8%
100%
13
JAX
37-7
9.8
5
6
48
0
16.2%
93%
16
MIN
30-23
9.1
5
6
41
0
16.2%
91%
17
BAL
20-19
12.9
6
9
69
0
25.7%
97%
18
SF
24-27
23.5
6
8
55
2
25%
94%
Production
Receptions
61
Targets
85
Receiving yards
560
Touchdowns
5
Points per game
9.8
Yards per target
6.59
Catch rate
71.76%
Role
Snap share
91.8%
Target share
15.61%
Air-yards share
10.3%
WOPR
0.305
RACR
3.695
Efficiency
Average depth of target
5.3
Yards after catch per reception
4.6
Yards before catch per reception
4.6
Total YAC
281
Broken tackles
1
Drop rate
0%
Passer rating when targeted
94.2
Receiving EPA per game
0.27
Scoring position
Red-zone targets
21
Red-zone target share
15.4%
End-zone target share
12.7%
Expected receiving TDs
5.36
Actual receiving TDs
5
Receiving TD luck
-0.36
Where that ranked
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
Points per game
11 of 15
Yards per target
14 of 15
Target share
13 of 15
Air-yards share
14 of 15
Who else ate
The offense threw it 606 times. He took 14.12% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
Cooper Kupp
31.73%
Van Jefferson
14.78%
Tyler Higbee ←
14.12%
Robert Woods
11.46%
Odell Beckham
7.97%
Darrell Henderson
6.64%
Blowouts against close games
5 of his 15 games were blowouts, 33.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.76 in those and 9.72 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
2020 · LA · 15 games
His best game was Week 2 against PHI — 28.4 PPR on 5 targets and a 19.2% target share, in a game that finished 37-19. His worst was Week 12 against SF at 1.6, on 2 targets, final score 20-23. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.7; in the 7 decided by more, 9.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
Earned against scored
His usage that season was worth 6.8 points per game. He scored 8.55, 15% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 2.32 expected, a gap of 1.7.
Wk
Opp
Score
PPR
Rec
Tgt
Yds
TD
Tgt%
Snap%
1
DAL
20-17
7
3
4
40
0
14.3%
89%
2
PHI
37-19
28.4
5
5
54
3
19.2%
86%
3
BUF
32-35
8
2
2
40
0
6.5%
72%
4
NYG
17-9
5
3
4
20
0
12.5%
84%
5
WAS
30-10
3.2
2
2
12
0
6.9%
82%
6
SF
16-24
8.6
3
4
56
0
10.8%
75%
8
MIA
17-28
3.4
2
4
14
0
7%
60%
10
SEA
23-16
9
3
6
60
0
16.7%
84%
11
TB
27-24
6
4
4
19
0
8.2%
72%
12
SF
20-23
1.6
1
2
6
0
6.7%
61%
13
ARI
38-28
12.4
4
6
24
1
13.6%
84%
14
NE
24-3
5.4
2
2
34
0
8.3%
87%
15
NYJ
20-23
16.7
4
5
67
1
16.7%
83%
16
SEA
9-20
6.4
3
6
34
0
14.6%
69%
17
ARI
18-7
7.1
3
4
41
0
10.8%
82%
Production
Receptions
44
Targets
60
Receiving yards
521
Carries
1
Rushing yards
1
Touchdowns
5
Points per game
8.55
Yards per target
8.68
Catch rate
73.33%
Yards per carry
1
Role
Snap share
78%
Target share
11.52%
Air-yards share
13.81%
WOPR
0.269
RACR
1.294
Efficiency
Average depth of target
8
Yards after catch per reception
5.4
Yards before catch per reception
6.4
Total YAC
238
Broken tackles
4
Drop rate
0.1%
Passer rating when targeted
127.2
Receiving EPA per game
2.35
Rushing EPA per game
-0.05
Scoring position
Red-zone targets
6
Red-zone target share
10.2%
End-zone target share
10.5%
Expected receiving TDs
2.32
Actual receiving TDs
4
Receiving TD luck
1.68
Who else ate
The offense threw it 590 times. He took 10.68% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
Robert Woods
22.95%
Cooper Kupp
22.06%
Josh Reynolds
14.41%
Gerald Everett
11.03%
Tyler Higbee ←
10.68%
Malcolm Brown
5.87%
By quarterback
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
QB
Games
Targets
PPG
Y/T
Tgt%
Jared Goff
14
56
8.65
8.57
11.57%
John Wolford
1
4
7.1
10.25
10.8%
Blowouts against close games
3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 28.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.33 in those and 7.74 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.