Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5.91 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 64.9, usage worth 4.8.
23 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| SLEEPER | 60.1 |
| ESPN | 79.8 |
| YAHOO | 62.8 |
| UNDERDOG | 50.6 |
| CBS | 56.8 |
| FFA | 49 |
| Goes around | Round 6, pick 5 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB25 |
| Bye week | 7 |
| ADP standard deviation | 10.2 picks |
Jacksonville Jaguars returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1. Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, Liam Coen as head coach, Grant Udinski calling it. The offense projects to 33.2 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 28.1 rushes.
In: CJ Williams (wr5), Josh Cameron (wr6), Bhaysul Tuten (rb1), Chris Rodriguez Jr. (rb2), DeeJay dallas (rb4), Nate Boerkircher (te2). Out: Travis Etienne Jr (rb1), Bhayshul Tuten (rb2), Johnny Mundt (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Bhaysul Tuten | 50.8% |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 38.2% |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 8% |
| DeeJay dallas | 2.9% |
Key additions: Chris Rodriguez Jr. signed 2 year deal (previously with commanders). Nate Boerkircher TE 2nd round. 2 6th round WR Josh Cameron & CJ Williams.
Key departures: Travis Etienne Jr. left Jacksonville for Saints in free agency.
Notes: Travis Etienne Jr. has left the Jaguars in free agency for the Saints. Opening door for Bhayshul Tuten to operate as team lead back. Jaguars sign Chris Rodriguez Jr. to 2 year deal from Commanders. Jaguars draft Nate Boerkircher (TE) in 2nd round and should cause competition for Brenton Strange. Also drafted Josh Cameron & CJ Williams both WR in the 6th round. Travis Hunter is expected to play more CB than WR in 2026, but we will need confirmation through camp (very bad for dynasty value if true). Brian Thomas Jr looks to return to his rookie form as a true WR1 but Jakobi Meyers may operate as the teams 1A. Parker Washington has potential to be massive contributor in 2026 if BTJ struggles continue.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Trevor Lawrence returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.1 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.2 att/g.
Offensive environment: JAX rates 22.4 against a league average of 23, 0.6 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.1 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | -2.4 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +0.4 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +6.7 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +25.3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Kelley | 2020 | 6.2 | 81% | -2.4% |
| Roschon Johnson | 2024 | 6 | 75% | -29.2% |
| Alexander Mattison | 2020 | 6.7 | 74% | +23.4% |
| Braelon Allen | 2024 | 5 | 74% | +6.3% |
| Ray Davis | 2024 | 6.8 | 74% | -16.2% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 4, pick 104 by JAX |
| College | Virginia Tech |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 5′9″ |
| Weight | 206 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.32s |
| Vertical | 40.5″ |
| Broad jump | 130″ |
| Shuttle | 4.41s |
His best game was Week 2 against CIN — 15.4 PPR on 10 touches and a 4.9% target share, in a game that finished 27-31. His worst was Week 14 against IND at -1.5, on 2 touches, final score 36-19. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.9; in the 7 decided by more, 6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 4.8 points per game. He scored 5.91, 21.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 0.44 expected, a gap of 1.6.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 26-10 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 6% |
| 2 | CIN | 27-31 | 15.4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 8 | 42 | 1 | 4.9% | 25% |
| 3 | HOU | 17-10 | 8.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 2.6% | 17% |
| 4 | SF | 26-21 | 3.2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 3.3% | 24% |
| 5 | KC | 31-28 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 4% | 21% |
| 6 | SEA | 12-20 | 4.8 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 7.1% | 14% |
| 7 | LA | 7-35 | 2.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 0% | 29% |
| 9 | LV | 30-29 | 9.6 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 9 | 29 | 1 | 3% | 25% |
| 10 | HOU | 29-36 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 8.7% | 27% |
| 11 | LAC | 35-6 | 13.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 74 | 1 | 0% | 32% |
| 12 | ARI | 27-24 | 1.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 3.3% | 21% |
| 13 | TEN | 25-3 | 8.9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 1 | 4% | 29% |
| 14 | IND | 36-19 | -1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| 15 | NYJ | 48-20 | 9.3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 3.6% | 18% |
| 18 | TEN | 41-7 | 8.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 1 | 0% | 26% |
| Receptions | 10 |
| Targets | 14 |
| Receiving yards | 79 |
| Carries | 83 |
| Rushing yards | 307 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 5.91 |
| Yards per target | 5.64 |
| Catch rate | 71.43% |
| Yards per carry | 3.7 |
| Snap share | 21.13% |
| Target share | 2.97% |
| Air-yards share | 0.19% |
| WOPR | 0.046 |
| RACR | 0.693 |
| Average depth of target | 0.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.1 |
| Total YAC | 80 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 124.7 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.37 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.68 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 2.2% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 21.7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 21.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.44 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.56 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 3.7 |
The offense threw it 563 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Parker Washington | 18.92% |
| Brian Thomas | 18.13% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 12.15% |
| Brenton Strange | 11.95% |
| Travis Etienne | 10.36% |
| Dyami Brown | 7.37% |
6 of his 15 games were blowouts, 45.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.77 in those and 5.86 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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