Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 11.06 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 112.7, usage worth 10.9.
27 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class
| SLEEPER | 99.8 |
| ESPN | 112.7 |
| YAHOO | 114.1 |
| UNDERDOG | 133.1 |
| CBS | 124.1 |
| FFA | 111 |
| Goes around | Round 10, pick 5 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE12 |
| Bye week | 14 |
| ADP standard deviation | 10 picks |
Our board has him at 147.5 points, 9.7 per game — 67 catches, 535 yards, 4.5 TDs. That is TE3, 111 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 8.1 points per game to a ceiling of 11.9, with the median at 9.7. Boom rate 23%, bust rate 17%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 112.7 on consensus and our board has him 111. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
A fine late-TE target if you punted the position - better than reaching for a mid-round TE. Fits the 'TE early or late' plan; consider double-dipping late.
buy · low conviction · 2026-06-14Dallas Cowboys returns 6 of 6 continuity slots — the whole offense is intact. Dak Prescott at quarterback, Brian Schottenheimer as head coach, Klayton Adams calling it. The offense projects to 35.8 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.1 rushes.
In: Sam Howell (qb2), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (wr5), Anthony Smith (wr7).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 12.9%, with a bear case of 12% and a bull case of 13.7% and a full range of 11% to 14.3%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| CeeDee Lamb | 22.7% |
| George Pickens | 21.4% |
| Jake Ferguson ← | 12.9% |
| Ryan Flournoy | 8.8% |
| Javonte Williams | 8.2% |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 6.5% |
What the offense looks like: Cowboys offense remains essentially the same in 2026 but will be paired with a significantly more competitive defense. This is very important because there were multiple games last year where Cowboys had to pull starters in the 4th quarter because they were getting blown out. This is a high powered offense that can sustain 2 WR1s in fantasy. The real question remains if George Pickens is going to land an extension in Dallas. There is no TRUE line of sight into this yet. Jerry Jones says he wants him to be a Cowboy for the long term, but we can't trust Jerry. If someone paid enough George is gone. Ceedee is not expected to be a top 5 WR with Pickens playing at his 2025 levels, but can absolutely be a top 10 PPR fantasy WR. Ceedee is an elite WR. Cowboys also lock down Javonte Williams on 3 year exention.
Key additions: George Pickens was franchised tagged & will play 2026 season in Dallas (barring trade or hold out).
Key departures: WR Jalen Tolbert signed with Miami Dolphins (minor)
Notes: Dallas has added significantly on defense this offseason and should be VERY competitive. Multiple games last year caused starters to be benched due to blow outs. Dak remains a highly productive aging QB with a well balanced pass and rush offense. Javonte Williams landed massive 3 year extension with Cowboys & George Pickens has been franchised tagged with no current plans to land long term extension. Ceedee Lamb looks to get back on track as a top 5 WR following a rough 2025. Pickens and Ceedee should both be viewed as Dynasty WR1s. Jake Ferguson is expected to also have a great 2026 season. We want to own as many pieces of this offense as we can FOR THE RIGHT PRICE.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Dak Prescott returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (36.7 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 35.7 att/g.
25 historical comps for TEs age ~25, prior share 16.9%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 16.1%, p25-p75 [13.2%, 18.6%], tails [10.4%, 20.4%]. Closest comps: Tyler Higbee 2022→2023 (LA: 18.1%→13.2%); Cade Otton 2024→2025 (TB: 15.6%→17.4%); Evan Engram 2022→2023 (JAX: 17.2%→23.5%). Adjustment: flat from opportunity_breakout (volume must hold)
self-anchored 58% to own 16.9% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 16.1%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: DAL rates 25.7 against a league average of 23, 2.7 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +1.4 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +3.5 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -4 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +2.3 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 3 | Luke Schoonmaker | +8.4 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +30.2% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, TEs crash the following year 47% of the time (hold 53%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 47% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 2024 | 10.4 | 74% | -41.3% |
| Dalton Schultz | 2022 | 9.5 | 74% | +6.9% |
| Zach Ertz | 2022 | 11.6 | 68% | -54% |
| Dalton Schultz | 2023 | 10 | 66% | -17.2% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2024 | 10 | 65% | -18.5% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2022, round 4, pick 129 by DAL |
| College | Wisconsin |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′5″ |
| Weight | 250 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.81s |
| Vertical | 31.5″ |
| Broad jump | 118″ |
| 3-cone | 7.03s |
| Shuttle | 4.48s |
| Career PPR per game | 8.5 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.7 |
| Boom rate | 12.8% |
| Bust rate | 25.5% |
| Games missed per season | 1 |
| Injury history | Concussion, Knee |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.03 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 5 against NYJ — 23.9 PPR on 9 targets and a 32.1% target share, in a game that finished 37-22. His worst was Week 8 against DEN at 0, on 1 targets, final score 24-44. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.5; in the 9 decided by more, 11.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 10.9 points per game. He scored 11.06, 1.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 20-24 | 7.3 | 5 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 18.2% | 77% |
| 2 | NYG | 40-37 | 16.8 | 9 | 12 | 78 | 0 | 23.1% | 73% |
| 3 | CHI | 14-31 | 21.2 | 13 | 14 | 82 | 0 | 31.8% | 57% |
| 4 | GB | 40-40 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 40 | 1 | 18.4% | 78% |
| 5 | NYJ | 37-22 | 23.9 | 7 | 9 | 49 | 2 | 32.1% | 55% |
| 6 | CAR | 27-30 | 12.3 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 | 8.8% | 67% |
| 7 | WAS | 44-22 | 21.9 | 7 | 7 | 29 | 2 | 23.3% | 66% |
| 8 | DEN | 24-44 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.9% | 59% |
| 9 | ARI | 17-27 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 50 | 0 | 19.4% | 90% |
| 11 | LV | 33-16 | 11.6 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 15.6% | 63% |
| 12 | PHI | 24-21 | 11.1 | 5 | 6 | 60 | 0 | 17.1% | 69% |
| 13 | KC | 31-28 | 8.6 | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 16.2% | 71% |
| 14 | DET | 30-44 | 10.8 | 5 | 7 | 58 | 0 | 14.9% | 80% |
| 15 | MIN | 26-34 | 3.6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 11.4% | 71% |
| 16 | LAC | 17-34 | 4.9 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 12.5% | 69% |
| 17 | WAS | 30-23 | 7.6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 5.6% | 29% |
| 18 | NYG | 17-34 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8.7% | 60% |
| Receptions | 82 |
| Targets | 102 |
| Receiving yards | 600 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 1 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 11.06 |
| Yards per target | 5.88 |
| Catch rate | 80.39% |
| Yards per carry | 1 |
| Snap share | 66.71% |
| Target share | 16.47% |
| Air-yards share | 8.95% |
| WOPR | 0.309 |
| RACR | 1.251 |
| Average depth of target | 4.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 3.6 |
| Total YAC | 307 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 113.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.12 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.04 |
| Red-zone targets | 24 |
| Red-zone target share | 23.8% |
| End-zone target share | 22.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 7.14 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 7 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.14 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 8 of 13 |
| Yards per target | 13 of 13 |
| Target share | 13 of 13 |
| Air-yards share | 13 of 13 |
The offense threw it 624 times. He took 16.8% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| George Pickens | 22.57% |
| CeeDee Lamb | 19.28% |
| Jake Ferguson ← | 16.8% |
| Ryan Flournoy | 9.23% |
| Javonte Williams | 8.4% |
| Kavontae Turpin | 6.26% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 16 | 100 | 11.66 | 5.95 | 16.96% |
| Joe Milton | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 8.7% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 32.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.18 in those and 10.54 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 3 against BAL — 15.5 PPR on 11 targets and a 22% target share, in a game that finished 25-28. His worst was Week 11 against HOU at 2.1, on 1 targets, final score 10-34. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.3; in the 6 decided by more, 3.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 10.9 points per game. He scored 7.46, 31.4% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.54 expected, a gap of -1.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 33-17 | 4.5 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 16.1% | 62% |
| 3 | BAL | 25-28 | 15.5 | 6 | 11 | 95 | 0 | 22% | 66% |
| 4 | NYG | 20-15 | 11.9 | 7 | 7 | 49 | 0 | 26.9% | 73% |
| 5 | PIT | 20-17 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 70 | 0 | 17.1% | 75% |
| 6 | DET | 9-47 | 4.1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 9.3% | 67% |
| 8 | SF | 24-30 | 8.3 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 0 | 21.6% | 84% |
| 9 | ATL | 21-27 | 14.1 | 7 | 10 | 71 | 0 | 20.8% | 82% |
| 10 | PHI | 6-34 | 4.4 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 17.2% | 75% |
| 11 | HOU | 10-34 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 1.9% | 8% |
| 14 | CIN | 20-27 | 6.2 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 19.4% | 77% |
| 15 | CAR | 30-14 | 4.3 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 14.3% | 60% |
| 16 | TB | 26-24 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 0 | 27.3% | 58% |
| 17 | PHI | 7-41 | 2.8 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 17.2% | 68% |
| 18 | WAS | 19-23 | 3.2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 12.1% | 59% |
| Receptions | 59 |
| Targets | 86 |
| Receiving yards | 494 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 7.46 |
| Yards per target | 5.74 |
| Catch rate | 68.6% |
| Snap share | 65.29% |
| Target share | 17.37% |
| Air-yards share | 9.16% |
| WOPR | 0.326 |
| RACR | 1.47 |
| Average depth of target | 4.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 3.1 |
| Total YAC | 309 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 83.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.91 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.7% |
| End-zone target share | 5.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.54 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.54 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 12 of 13 |
| Yards per target | 12 of 13 |
| Target share | 11 of 13 |
| Air-yards share | 13 of 13 |
The offense threw it 635 times. He took 13.89% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| CeeDee Lamb | 24.56% |
| Jake Ferguson ← | 13.89% |
| Jalen Tolbert | 12.76% |
| Brandin Cooks | 8.72% |
| Kavontae Turpin | 8.4% |
| Rico Dowdle | 7.92% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 7 | 40 | 6.27 | 5.47 | 16.87% |
| Dak Prescott | 6 | 42 | 9.55 | 6.26 | 18.83% |
| Trey Lance | 1 | 4 | 3.2 | 3 | 12.1% |
4 of his 14 games were blowouts, 12.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.35 in those and 10.28 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 9 against PHI — 22.1 PPR on 10 targets and a 22.7% target share, in a game that finished 23-28. His worst was Week 6 against LAC at 2.5, on 1 targets, final score 20-17. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12; in the 12 decided by more, 9.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 11 points per game. He scored 10.42, 8.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 40-0 | 3.1 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 28% | 72% |
| 2 | NYJ | 30-10 | 10.1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 10.8% | 60% |
| 3 | ARI | 16-28 | 9.8 | 5 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 18.9% | 69% |
| 4 | NE | 38-3 | 14.7 | 7 | 7 | 77 | 0 | 19.4% | 56% |
| 5 | SF | 10-42 | 5.8 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 11.5% | 69% |
| 6 | LAC | 20-17 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3.3% | 86% |
| 8 | LA | 43-20 | 14.7 | 4 | 4 | 47 | 1 | 11.8% | 80% |
| 9 | PHI | 23-28 | 22.1 | 7 | 10 | 91 | 1 | 22.7% | 89% |
| 10 | NYG | 49-17 | 12.6 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 15.9% | 67% |
| 11 | CAR | 33-10 | 6.2 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 12.5% | 72% |
| 12 | WAS | 45-10 | 4.5 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 9.4% | 72% |
| 13 | SEA | 41-35 | 19.7 | 6 | 8 | 77 | 1 | 20% | 74% |
| 14 | PHI | 33-13 | 12.2 | 5 | 8 | 72 | 0 | 20.5% | 73% |
| 15 | BUF | 10-31 | 10.4 | 6 | 8 | 44 | 0 | 25% | 86% |
| 16 | MIA | 20-22 | 8.5 | 4 | 8 | 45 | 0 | 25% | 83% |
| 17 | DET | 20-19 | 7.3 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 16.2% | 89% |
| 18 | WAS | 38-10 | 12.9 | 6 | 6 | 69 | 0 | 15% | 72% |
| Receptions | 71 |
| Targets | 102 |
| Receiving yards | 761 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 10.42 |
| Yards per target | 7.46 |
| Catch rate | 69.61% |
| Snap share | 74.65% |
| Target share | 16.82% |
| Air-yards share | 10.33% |
| WOPR | 0.324 |
| RACR | 2.565 |
| Average depth of target | 5.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.7 |
| Total YAC | 425 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 103.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.93 |
| Red-zone targets | 29 |
| Red-zone target share | 24.2% |
| End-zone target share | 21.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 7.83 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 8 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.17 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 9 of 14 |
| Yards per target | 6 of 14 |
| Target share | 13 of 14 |
| Air-yards share | 14 of 14 |
The offense threw it 614 times. He took 16.86% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| CeeDee Lamb | 29.92% |
| Jake Ferguson ← | 16.86% |
| Brandin Cooks | 13.39% |
| Tony Pollard | 11.07% |
| Michael Gallup | 9.42% |
| Jalen Tolbert | 5.95% |
11 of his 17 games were blowouts, 60.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.75 in those and 12.02 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 6 against PHI — 14 PPR on 6 targets and a 16.2% target share, in a game that finished 17-26. His worst was Week 18 against WAS at 1.4, on 1 targets, final score 6-26. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.1; in the 8 decided by more, 4.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 3.4 points per game. He scored 4.4, 31% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 0.88 expected, a gap of 1.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NYG | 23-16 | 3.3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 10% | 83% |
| 4 | WAS | 25-10 | 1.7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3.8% | 28% |
| 6 | PHI | 17-26 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 40 | 1 | 16.2% | 51% |
| 7 | DET | 24-6 | 1.7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | 38% |
| 8 | CHI | 49-29 | 7.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3.8% | 55% |
| 11 | MIN | 40-3 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6.7% | 50% |
| 12 | NYG | 28-20 | 8.7 | 3 | 3 | 57 | 0 | 10.3% | 48% |
| 13 | IND | 54-19 | 1.9 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 6.7% | 47% |
| 16 | PHI | 40-34 | 3.4 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 2.9% | 21% |
| 17 | TEN | 27-13 | 1.7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2.4% | 29% |
| 18 | WAS | 6-26 | 1.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2.8% | 21% |
| Receptions | 19 |
| Targets | 22 |
| Receiving yards | 174 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 4.4 |
| Yards per target | 7.91 |
| Catch rate | 86.36% |
| Snap share | 42.82% |
| Target share | 6.33% |
| Air-yards share | 2.37% |
| WOPR | 0.112 |
| RACR | 1.498 |
| Average depth of target | 3.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 2.6 |
| Total YAC | 124 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 129.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.72 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 3.5% |
| End-zone target share | 3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.88 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.12 |
The offense threw it 556 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| CeeDee Lamb | 28.62% |
| Dalton Schultz | 16.33% |
| Noah Brown | 13.58% |
| Michael Gallup | 13.58% |
| Tony Pollard | 10.09% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 4.22% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 8 | 12 | 3.67 | 9.5 | 4.95% |
| Cooper Rush | 3 | 10 | 6.33 | 6 | 10% |
5 of his 11 games were blowouts, 32.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.12 in those and 5.13 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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