Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 14.31 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 40.8, usage worth 11.9.
25 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| SLEEPER | 44.1 |
| ESPN | 42.5 |
| YAHOO | 38.5 |
| UNDERDOG | 30.5 |
| CBS | 38.2 |
| FFA | 37 |
| Goes around | Round 4, pick 5 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR16 |
| Bye week | 13 |
| ADP standard deviation | 2.9 picks |
Our board has him at 224.6 points, 13.7 per game — 76.9 catches, 1,071 yards, 4.8 TDs. That is WR3, 37 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 11.7 points per game to a ceiling of 16.3, with the median at 13.7. Boom rate 19%, bust rate 15%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 40.8 on consensus and our board has him 37. We rank him 3.8 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
efficiency has climbed every year of his career (yards/game and yards/target both rising three straight seasons) despite never getting truly elite target volume — stable and error- free rather than explosive. The real cap: inside the red zone, targets go to tight ends, Derrick Henry, and an overrated amount of Lamar's own scrambling, not to Flowers. The explicit "safe floor" complement pick for builds that already have two elite RB1s and just need a WR who won't lose you the pick.
buy · medium conviction · 2026-08Baltimore Ravens returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Lamar Jackson at quarterback, Jesse Minter as head coach, Declan Doyle calling it. The offense projects to 30 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 28.1 rushes.
In: Ja'Kobi Lane (wr4), Elijah Sarratt (wr5), Cornelius Johnson (wr7), Adam Randall (rb3), Ali Rasheen (rb4), Durham Smythe (te2). Out: Devin Duvernay (wr3), Tylan Wallace (wr5), Keaton Mitchell (rb3), Rasheen Ali (rb4), Isaiah Likely (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 24%, with a bear case of 22.8% and a bull case of 24.7% and a full range of 21.9% to 26.1%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Zay Flowers ← | 24% |
| Mark Andrews | 14.5% |
| Rashod Bateman | 11.1% |
| Justice Hill | 8.7% |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | 8.4% |
| Elijah Sarratt | 7.3% |
What the offense looks like: Derrick Henry is aging, but until proven otherwise, will continue to be the Ravens workhorse back. Zay Flowers had his 5th year option picked up & his long term future in Baltimore MAY hinge on his 2026 season. he has shown flashes of being a true WR1, and Baltimore hasn't brought in direct competition with him, but imagine if he doesn't establish himself this year that Ravens will address WR more adequately. Rookie WRS Lane & Sarratt. have a large opportunity to take a substantial role in this offense. Bateman and Walker by no means are locked in as WR2 and WR3.
Key additions: G John Simpson (3/$30M), TE Durham Smythe (depth), QB Tyler Huntley (Back up to Lamar), WR Ja'Kobi Lane (3rd round from USC), WR Elijah Sarratt (4th Round Indiana), TE Matthew Hibner TE (5th round SMU)
Key departures: Biggest departure is HC John Harbaugh being fired at the end of the 2025 season. C Tyler Linderbaum left to Raiders. Isaiah Likely (TE) signed 3 year deal with NY. Lost RB Keaton Mitchell to the Chargers.
Notes: Lamar expected to completely bounce back. Derrick Henry is the unicorn who never ages apparently (fall off coming but production still here as of now). Ravens draft Adam Randall RB in 5th round. Justice Hill will still operate as 3rd down back. Henry main back. Isaiah Likely left to Giants in free agency. Andrews signs extension. Durham Smythe TE & Matthew Hibner TE also drafted. Andrews should be TE1 but unsure what production will look like. Ravens picked up Flowers franchise tag and he is under contract through 2027. Lane could be a rookie breakout, opportunity is 100% there.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Lamar Jackson returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (24.8 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30 att/g; New OC Declan Doyle — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jesse Minter.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~24, prior share 27.5%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 24.1%, p25-p75 [21.2%, 26.1%], tails [18.7%, 29.7%]. Closest comps: Jaylen Waddle 2023→2024 (MIA: 22.4%→16.3%); Terry McLaurin 2022→2023 (WAS: 24.4%→22.8%); Jarvis Landry 2020→2021 (CLE: 26.4%→24.5%). Adjustment: flat from opportunity_breakout (volume must hold)
self-anchored 58% to own 27.5% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 24.1%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: BAL rates 25.7 against a league average of 23, 2.7 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +4.7 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.3 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.9 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Zay Flowers study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +9.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 2022 | 17.7 | 65% | +55% |
| Michael Pittman | 2022 | 13.5 | 62% | +37.9% |
| Diontae Johnson | 2021 | 17.2 | 62% | -15.9% |
| Terry McLaurin | 2022 | 13.5 | 62% | +10.1% |
| Michael Pittman | 2021 | 14 | 60% | +1.5% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 1 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 1, pick 22 by BAL |
| College | Boston Col. |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 5′9″ |
| Weight | 182 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.42s |
| Vertical | 35.5″ |
| Broad jump | 127″ |
| Career PPR per game | 13 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 24.4% |
| Bust rate | 19.5% |
| Games missed per season | 1 |
| Injury history | Calf, Knee |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.24 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 18 against PIT — 29.8 PPR on 6 targets and a 35.3% target share, in a game that finished 24-26. His worst was Week 13 against CIN at 0.6, on 7 targets, final score 14-32. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.1; in the 10 decided by more, 11.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 11.9 points per game. He scored 14.31, 20.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.57 expected, a gap of -1.6.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 40-41 | 28.1 | 7 | 9 | 143 | 1 | 47.4% | 90% |
| 2 | CLE | 41-17 | 14.9 | 7 | 11 | 75 | 0 | 39.3% | 79% |
| 3 | DET | 30-38 | 3.3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 10.7% | 86% |
| 4 | KC | 20-37 | 14.4 | 7 | 8 | 74 | 0 | 26.7% | 87% |
| 5 | HOU | 10-44 | 12.2 | 5 | 5 | 72 | 0 | 25% | 84% |
| 6 | LA | 3-17 | 8.6 | 6 | 10 | 46 | 0 | 31.3% | 91% |
| 8 | CHI | 30-16 | 14.1 | 7 | 9 | 63 | 0 | 40.9% | 95% |
| 9 | MIA | 28-6 | 11.4 | 5 | 5 | 64 | 0 | 21.7% | 82% |
| 10 | MIN | 27-19 | 12.1 | 4 | 6 | 75 | 0 | 21.4% | 83% |
| 11 | CLE | 23-16 | 11.3 | 3 | 5 | 78 | 0 | 20% | 89% |
| 12 | NYJ | 23-10 | 11.9 | 5 | 6 | 58 | 0 | 30% | 84% |
| 13 | CIN | 14-32 | 0.6 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 23.3% | 95% |
| 14 | PIT | 22-27 | 20.6 | 8 | 11 | 124 | 0 | 33.3% | 92% |
| 15 | CIN | 24-0 | 15.8 | 3 | 5 | 68 | 1 | 41.7% | 78% |
| 16 | NE | 24-28 | 21.2 | 7 | 7 | 84 | 1 | 35% | 89% |
| 17 | GB | 41-24 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 1 | 25% | 68% |
| 18 | PIT | 24-26 | 29.8 | 4 | 6 | 138 | 2 | 35.3% | 98% |
| Receptions | 86 |
| Targets | 118 |
| Receiving yards | 1,211 |
| Carries | 10 |
| Rushing yards | 62 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 14.31 |
| Yards per target | 10.26 |
| Catch rate | 72.88% |
| Yards per carry | 6.2 |
| Snap share | 86.47% |
| Target share | 29.88% |
| Air-yards share | 36.06% |
| WOPR | 0.701 |
| RACR | 1.231 |
| Average depth of target | 10.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.8 |
| Total YAC | 458 |
| Broken tackles | 9 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 112.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.73 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.15 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 20.4% |
| End-zone target share | 10.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 0.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.57 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.57 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 12 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 6 of 44 |
| Target share | 7 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 12 of 44 |
The offense threw it 422 times. He took 28.99% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Zay Flowers ← | 28.99% |
| Mark Andrews | 17.2% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9.58% |
| Rashod Bateman | 9.34% |
| Isaiah Likely | 8.85% |
| Justice Hill | 6.63% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 13 | 89 | 15.03 | 11.24 | 29.68% |
| Cooper Rush | 2 | 15 | 10.4 | 7.87 | 28.15% |
| Tyler Huntley | 2 | 14 | 13.55 | 6.64 | 32.95% |
7 of his 17 games were blowouts, 33.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.76 in those and 18.06 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 9 against DEN — 29.7 PPR on 6 targets and a 31.6% target share, in a game that finished 41-10. His worst was Week 4 against BUF at 2, on 2 targets, final score 35-10. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.9; in the 7 decided by more, 10.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 12.1 points per game. He scored 12.32, 1.9% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 20-27 | 11.1 | 6 | 10 | 37 | 0 | 25% | 89% |
| 2 | LV | 23-26 | 22.1 | 7 | 11 | 91 | 1 | 35.5% | 89% |
| 3 | DAL | 28-25 | 5.3 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 26.7% | 67% |
| 4 | BUF | 35-10 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 11.1% | 68% |
| 5 | CIN | 41-38 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 111 | 0 | 29.3% | 82% |
| 6 | WAS | 30-23 | 22.4 | 9 | 9 | 132 | 0 | 36% | 72% |
| 7 | TB | 41-31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4.8% | 71% |
| 8 | CLE | 24-29 | 18.5 | 7 | 12 | 115 | 0 | 34.3% | 87% |
| 9 | DEN | 41-10 | 29.7 | 5 | 6 | 127 | 2 | 31.6% | 53% |
| 10 | CIN | 35-34 | 7.4 | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 18.8% | 83% |
| 11 | PIT | 16-18 | 11.9 | 2 | 6 | 39 | 1 | 19.4% | 84% |
| 12 | LAC | 30-23 | 11.2 | 5 | 8 | 62 | 0 | 38.1% | 77% |
| 13 | PHI | 19-24 | 10.1 | 3 | 7 | 74 | 0 | 20% | 94% |
| 15 | NYG | 35-14 | 11.3 | 6 | 7 | 53 | 0 | 29.2% | 81% |
| 16 | PIT | 34-17 | 15.3 | 5 | 8 | 100 | 0 | 34.8% | 87% |
| 17 | HOU | 31-2 | 5.1 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 31.3% | 65% |
| 18 | CLE | 35-10 | 3.1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6.7% | 20% |
| Receptions | 74 |
| Targets | 116 |
| Receiving yards | 1,059 |
| Carries | 9 |
| Rushing yards | 56 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 12.32 |
| Yards per target | 9.13 |
| Catch rate | 63.79% |
| Yards per carry | 6.22 |
| Snap share | 74.65% |
| Target share | 25.45% |
| Air-yards share | 26.48% |
| WOPR | 0.566 |
| RACR | 1.039 |
| Average depth of target | 10 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.1 |
| Total YAC | 463 |
| Broken tackles | 7 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 104.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.63 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.13 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.3% |
| End-zone target share | 14.3% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.05 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.95 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.08 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 30 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 13 of 51 |
| Target share | 19 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 34 of 51 |
The offense threw it 477 times. He took 25.38% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Zay Flowers ← | 25.38% |
| Rashod Bateman | 15.75% |
| Mark Andrews | 15.1% |
| Isaiah Likely | 12.69% |
| Justice Hill | 11.16% |
| Nelson Agholor | 6.35% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 31.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.08 in those and 13.9 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 12 against LAC — 23.2 PPR on 8 targets and a 26.7% target share, in a game that finished 20-10. His worst was Week 15 against JAX at 1.7, on 2 targets, final score 23-7. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.2; in the 9 decided by more, 12.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 11.6 points per game. He scored 12.9, 13.2% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 25-9 | 17.7 | 9 | 10 | 78 | 0 | 47.6% | 84% |
| 2 | CIN | 27-24 | 10.8 | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 | 15.2% | 77% |
| 3 | IND | 19-22 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 48 | 0 | 33.3% | 93% |
| 4 | CLE | 28-3 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 56 | 0 | 22.2% | 98% |
| 5 | PIT | 10-17 | 12.3 | 5 | 11 | 73 | 0 | 28.9% | 99% |
| 6 | TEN | 24-16 | 17.1 | 6 | 8 | 50 | 1 | 27.6% | 89% |
| 7 | DET | 38-6 | 11.5 | 4 | 6 | 75 | 0 | 21.4% | 72% |
| 8 | ARI | 31-24 | 6.9 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 26.9% | 75% |
| 9 | SEA | 37-3 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3.1% | 68% |
| 10 | CLE | 31-33 | 12.3 | 5 | 6 | 73 | 0 | 26.1% | 87% |
| 11 | CIN | 34-20 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 17.4% | 98% |
| 12 | LAC | 20-10 | 23.2 | 5 | 8 | 25 | 2 | 26.7% | 94% |
| 14 | LA | 37-31 | 20 | 6 | 10 | 60 | 1 | 25% | 97% |
| 15 | JAX | 23-7 | 1.7 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 8.7% | 84% |
| 16 | SF | 33-19 | 22.2 | 9 | 13 | 72 | 1 | 38.2% | 78% |
| 17 | MIA | 56-19 | 19.6 | 3 | 3 | 106 | 1 | 13.6% | 56% |
| Receptions | 77 |
| Targets | 108 |
| Receiving yards | 858 |
| Carries | 8 |
| Rushing yards | 56 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 12.9 |
| Yards per target | 7.94 |
| Catch rate | 71.3% |
| Yards per carry | 7 |
| Snap share | 84.31% |
| Target share | 23.87% |
| Air-yards share | 23.91% |
| WOPR | 0.525 |
| RACR | 1.126 |
| Average depth of target | 8.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.1 |
| Total YAC | 391 |
| Broken tackles | 10 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 106.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.81 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.27 |
| Red-zone targets | 16 |
| Red-zone target share | 22.2% |
| End-zone target share | 10% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.74 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.74 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.17 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 30 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 30 of 51 |
| Target share | 22 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 38 of 51 |
The offense threw it 494 times. He took 22.69% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Zay Flowers ← | 22.69% |
| Odell Beckham | 13.45% |
| Mark Andrews | 12.82% |
| Rashod Bateman | 11.76% |
| Nelson Agholor | 9.45% |
| Isaiah Likely | 8.4% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 20% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.3 in those and 13.2 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Zay Flowers →