Charts· WR touchdown regression

Touchdowns over expected (2026, Weeks 1–9), min. 45 targets

42 WRs with 45+ targets, ranked by TDs over expected (season) through Week 9 of 2026. Top: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+4.1), Christian Watson (+3.3) and Tee Higgins (+3.2). Bottom: Michael Wilson (-5.4), Rome Odunze (-2.4) and DK Metcalf (-2.1).

Expected TDs = every carry and target priced by where it happened

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42WRs ranked

1–9weeks of 2026

45min. targets

+4.1#1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba

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42 WRs · 2025 characters

WR TOUCHDOWN REGRESSION

Touchdowns over expected (2026, Weeks 1–9), min. 45 targets

1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) +4.1 (9 TD, 4.9 exp)
2. Christian Watson (GB) +3.3 (7 TD, 3.7 exp)
3. Tee Higgins (CIN) +3.2 (6 TD, 2.8 exp)
4. Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) +2.7 (7 TD, 4.3 exp)
5. Stefon Diggs (WAS) +2.6 (5 TD, 2.4 exp)
6. Jameson Williams (DET) +1.8 (5 TD, 3.2 exp)
7. DeMario Douglas (NE) +1.8 (4 TD, 2.2 exp)
8. Tre Tucker (LV) +1.8 (4 TD, 2.2 exp)
9. Parker Washington (JAX) +1.8 (5 TD, 3.2 exp)
10. Justin Jefferson (MIN) +1.7 (4 TD, 2.3 exp)
11. Zay Flowers (BAL) +1.5 (3 TD, 1.5 exp)
12. Puka Nacua (LAR) +1.2 (5 TD, 3.8 exp)
13. Davante Adams (LAR) +1.1 (4 TD, 2.9 exp)
14. Jalen Coker (CAR) +1.0 (3 TD, 2.0 exp)
15. CeeDee Lamb (DAL) +0.9 (7 TD, 6.0 exp)
16. Luther Burden III (CHI) +0.8 (4 TD, 3.2 exp)
17. Wan'Dale Robinson (TEN) +0.8 (3 TD, 2.2 exp)
18. Emeka Egbuka (TB) +0.5 (3 TD, 2.5 exp)
19. Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) +0.5 (5 TD, 4.5 exp)
20. Garrett Wilson (NYJ) +0.1 (3 TD, 2.9 exp)
21. Devaughn Vele (NO) +0.1 (3 TD, 2.9 exp)
22. Makai Lemon (PHI) -0.0 (1 TD, 1.0 exp)
23. Jaylen Waddle (DEN) -0.1 (2 TD, 2.1 exp)
24. KC Concepcion (CLE) -0.2 (1 TD, 1.2 exp)
25. Denzel Boston (CLE) -0.5 (3 TD, 3.5 exp)
26. Xavier Hutchinson (HOU) -0.7 (2 TD, 2.7 exp)
27. Matthew Golden (GB) -0.7 (5 TD, 5.7 exp)
28. Keenan Allen (SF) -0.7 (1 TD, 1.7 exp)
29. Drake London (ATL) -0.8 (1 TD, 1.8 exp)
30. George Pickens (DAL) -0.8 (2 TD, 2.8 exp)
31. Carnell Tate (TEN) -0.8 (1 TD, 1.9 exp)
32. Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) -0.9 (3 TD, 3.9 exp)
33. Courtland Sutton (DEN) -1.0 (2 TD, 3.0 exp)
34. Ryan Flournoy (DAL) -1.0 (2 TD, 3.0 exp)
35. Malik Washington (MIA) -1.1 (1 TD, 2.1 exp)
36. Josh Downs (KC) -1.2 (1 TD, 2.2 exp)
37. Xavier Worthy (KC) -1.4 (1 TD, 2.4 exp)
38. Chris Olave (NO) -1.4 (2 TD, 3.4 exp)
39. Malik Nabers (NYG) -1.5 (2 TD, 3.5 exp)
40. DK Metcalf (PIT) -2.1 (1 TD, 3.1 exp)
41. Rome Odunze (CHI) -2.4 (1 TD, 3.4 exp)
42. Michael Wilson (ARI) -5.4 (2 TD, 7.4 exp)

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The whole ranking, 42 players: the chart shows the top and the bottom of it.

#	Player	Team	TDs over expected (season)
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba9 TD, 4.9 exp	SEA	+4.1
2	Christian Watson7 TD, 3.7 exp	GB	+3.3
3	Tee Higgins6 TD, 2.8 exp	CIN	+3.2
4	Ja'Marr Chase7 TD, 4.3 exp	CIN	+2.7
5	Stefon Diggs5 TD, 2.4 exp	WAS	+2.6
6	Jameson Williams5 TD, 3.2 exp	DET	+1.8
7	DeMario Douglas4 TD, 2.2 exp	NE	+1.8
8	Tre Tucker4 TD, 2.2 exp	LV	+1.8
9	Parker Washington5 TD, 3.2 exp	JAX	+1.8
10	Justin Jefferson4 TD, 2.3 exp	MIN	+1.7
11	Zay Flowers3 TD, 1.5 exp	BAL	+1.5
12	Puka Nacua5 TD, 3.8 exp	LAR	+1.2
13	Davante Adams4 TD, 2.9 exp	LAR	+1.1
14	Jalen Coker3 TD, 2.0 exp	CAR	+1.0
15	CeeDee Lamb7 TD, 6.0 exp	DAL	+0.9
16	Luther Burden III4 TD, 3.2 exp	CHI	+0.8
17	Wan'Dale Robinson3 TD, 2.2 exp	TEN	+0.8
18	Emeka Egbuka3 TD, 2.5 exp	TB	+0.5
19	Amon-Ra St. Brown5 TD, 4.5 exp	DET	+0.5
20	Garrett Wilson3 TD, 2.9 exp	NYJ	+0.1
21	Devaughn Vele3 TD, 2.9 exp	NO	+0.1
22	Makai Lemon1 TD, 1.0 exp	PHI	-0.0
23	Jaylen Waddle2 TD, 2.1 exp	DEN	-0.1
24	KC Concepcion1 TD, 1.2 exp	CLE	-0.2
25	Denzel Boston3 TD, 3.5 exp	CLE	-0.5
26	Xavier Hutchinson2 TD, 2.7 exp	HOU	-0.7
27	Matthew Golden5 TD, 5.7 exp	GB	-0.7
28	Keenan Allen1 TD, 1.7 exp	SF	-0.7
29	Drake London1 TD, 1.8 exp	ATL	-0.8
30	George Pickens2 TD, 2.8 exp	DAL	-0.8
31	Carnell Tate1 TD, 1.9 exp	TEN	-0.8
32	Tetairoa McMillan3 TD, 3.9 exp	CAR	-0.9
33	Courtland Sutton2 TD, 3.0 exp	DEN	-1.0
34	Ryan Flournoy2 TD, 3.0 exp	DAL	-1.0
35	Malik Washington1 TD, 2.1 exp	MIA	-1.1
36	Josh Downs1 TD, 2.2 exp	KC	-1.2
37	Xavier Worthy1 TD, 2.4 exp	KC	-1.4
38	Chris Olave2 TD, 3.4 exp	NO	-1.4
39	Malik Nabers2 TD, 3.5 exp	NYG	-1.5
40	DK Metcalf1 TD, 3.1 exp	PIT	-2.1
41	Rome Odunze1 TD, 3.4 exp	CHI	-2.4
42	Michael Wilson2 TD, 7.4 exp	ARI	-5.4

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Minimums scale with the season (QBs 15 attempts a week, RBs 8 carries, WRs 5 targets, TEs 3). Expected points price every carry and target by where it happened. Built from the same data as the Charts gallery; every chart saves as a 1080 × 1350 post.