Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 8.36 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 86.7, usage worth 10.1.
27 years old · 5 seasons of experience · 2021 draft class
| SLEEPER | 76.2 |
| ESPN | 115.2 |
| YAHOO | 74.4 |
| UNDERDOG | 89.1 |
| CBS | 81.1 |
| FFA | 92 |
| Goes around | Round 8, pick 3 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB29 |
| Bye week | 5 |
| ADP standard deviation | 19.2 picks |
Our board has him at 143.9 points, 9 per game — 674 rushing yards, 5.8 rushing TDs, 20.3 catches. That is RB5, 93 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 5.8 points per game to a ceiling of 13.2, with the median at 9. Boom rate 46%, bust rate 37%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 86.7 on consensus and our board has him 93. We rank him 6.3 picks worse than the room drafts him, so at ADP he is mildly overpriced. That is an objection to the price and not to the player — if he falls past his slot he can be exactly the right pick.
Panthers have the hardest schedule and a likely-losing game-script profile; Hubbard isn't a pass-catcher or a true bell-cow, so negative scripts cap him. Don't chase.
fade · medium conviction · 2026-06-05Carolina Panthers returns 6 of 6 continuity slots — the whole offense is intact. Bryce Young at quarterback, Dave Canales as head coach, Brad Idzik calling it. The offense projects to 31.3 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 26.9 rushes.
In: Kenny Pickett (qb2), Chris Brazzell II (wr3), John Metchie III (wr5), Jonathon Brooks (rb2), AJ Dillon (rb4). Out: Rico Dowdle (rb2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Chuba Hubbard ← | 56.9% |
| Jonathon Brooks | 25.6% |
| Trevor Ettiene | 9.5% |
| AJ Dillon | 8.1% |
What the offense looks like: Bryce Young does not currently hold non SF fantasy value, but if he breaks out in 2026, he certainly will. However, if Bryce regresses, this offense will be BRUTAL to own any part of. This is a fairly high risk high reward offense to have pieces of. McMillan, Coker, Brooks, and even Metchie III & Brazzell II COULD see their value improve in 2026.
Key additions: Drafted WR Chris Brazell II in the 3rd round from Tennessee. signed WR John Metchie III in free agency on 1 year deal. signed C Luke Fortner & LT Rasheed Walker (projected Starter) from GB. Panthers signed QB Kenny Pickett (Garbage) to back up Bryce Young. AJ Dillon was also signed as 3rd/4th string RB.
Key departures: Lost G/C Austin Corbett to Bills in free agency. Lost Rico Dowdle RB to Steelers in Free agency
Notes: McMillan year 2 primary target share expected. Brazzell round 3 deep threat. Young has 5th year option picked up. Trending in the right direction. Hubbard serviceable, but the former 2nd round pick Jonathon Brooks is coming back from second ACL tear(great potential but all dynasty managers know). it will be interesting to see how Chris Brazzell II works into offense but expect Jalen Coker to be WR2. Xavier Legette may be traded early in the season. Panthers also added WR John Metchie III (Bryce Young's college teammate). This TE room is BRUTAL & you have no business owning any TE on this team. Carolina also may be in the market for a free agent TE like David Njoku (or may potentially trade for one). .
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Bryce Young returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (30.3 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.3 att/g.
| Projected carry share | 56.9% |
| Projected carries per game | 12.6 |
| Projected carries, full season | 213 |
| Last season, carries per game | 9.2 |
That is an increase of 3.4 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 26.9 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: CAR rates 20.9 against a league average of 23, 2.1 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -3.4 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -2.9 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | -2.4 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +0.6 · neutral |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 | Rico Dowdle | +23.2 |
| 2022 | 2 | D'Onta Foreman | +10.7 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -23.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 2024 | 9.8 | 64% | -38.2% |
| Devin Singletary | 2023 | 9.8 | 61% | -18.7% |
| Miles Sanders | 2023 | 5.5 | 60% | -21.8% |
| Antonio Gibson | 2024 | 6.1 | 59% | -28.4% |
| Samaje Perine | 2022 | 8.9 | 57% | -15.3% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 0 gained value, 5 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2021, round 4, pick 126 by CAR |
| College | Oklahoma St. |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′0″ |
| Weight | 210 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.48s |
| Vertical | 36″ |
| Broad jump | 120″ |
| 3-cone | 7.24s |
| Shuttle | 4.26s |
| Career PPR per game | 10.5 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 22.6% |
| Bust rate | 17.7% |
| Games missed per season | 0.8 |
| Injury history | Ankle, Calf |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.31 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 13 against LA — 20.4 PPR on 19 touches and a 10% target share, in a game that finished 31-28. His worst was Week 9 against GB at 1.7, on 6 touches, final score 16-13. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.1; in the 7 decided by more, 8.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 10.1 points per game. He scored 8.36, 9.7% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.11 expected, a gap of -1.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 10-26 | 17.9 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 16 | 57 | 1 | 14.7% | 67% |
| 2 | ARI | 22-27 | 18.7 | 5 | 6 | 39 | 10 | 38 | 1 | 11.3% | 74% |
| 3 | ATL | 30-0 | 9.6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 73 | 0 | 12.5% | 62% |
| 4 | NE | 13-42 | 9.9 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 10 | 49 | 0 | 9.4% | 51% |
| 7 | NYJ | 13-6 | 7.5 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 14 | 31 | 0 | 9.7% | 54% |
| 8 | BUF | 9-40 | 9.4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 34 | 1 | 4.3% | 57% |
| 9 | GB | 16-13 | 1.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 5.3% | 22% |
| 10 | NO | 7-17 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 4.3% | 21% |
| 11 | ATL | 30-27 | 3.8 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 6.8% | 19% |
| 12 | SF | 9-20 | 8.3 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 14.8% | 35% |
| 13 | LA | 31-28 | 20.4 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 17 | 83 | 1 | 10% | 59% |
| 15 | NO | 17-20 | 4.8 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 5% | 42% |
| 16 | TB | 23-20 | 4.4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 3.2% | 41% |
| 17 | SEA | 10-27 | 2.8 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 14.3% | 38% |
| 18 | TB | 14-16 | 3.7 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 6.7% | 45% |
| Receptions | 30 |
| Targets | 39 |
| Receiving yards | 223 |
| Carries | 134 |
| Rushing yards | 511 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 8.36 |
| Yards per target | 5.72 |
| Catch rate | 76.92% |
| Yards per carry | 3.81 |
| Snap share | 45.8% |
| Target share | 8.82% |
| Air-yards share | -3.49% |
| WOPR | 0.108 |
| RACR | -0.809 |
| Average depth of target | -1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -2.3 |
| Total YAC | 291 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 115.7 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.31 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.04 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 7.9% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 31.9% |
| Goal-line carry share | 21.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.11 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.11 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.58 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 40 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 28 of 49 |
| Target share | 24 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 46 of 49 |
The offense threw it 515 times. He took 8.13% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tetairoa McMillan | 25.42% |
| Xavier Legette | 13.33% |
| Rico Dowdle | 10.42% |
| Jalen Coker | 8.96% |
| Chuba Hubbard ← | 8.13% |
| Tommy Tremble | 7.71% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 14 | 38 | 8.29 | 5.87 | 9.14% |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 1 | 9.4 | 0 | 4.3% |
4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 25.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.92 in those and 8.12 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 16 against ARI — 32.5 PPR on 30 touches and a 20.8% target share, in a game that finished 36-30. His worst was Week 1 against NO at 1.4, on 6 touches, final score 10-47. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19.4; in the 9 decided by more, 13.9. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 16.3 points per game. He scored 16.11, 1.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.07 expected, a gap of -1.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 10-47 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 54% |
| 2 | LAC | 3-26 | 11.6 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 64 | 0 | 19.2% | 58% |
| 3 | LV | 36-22 | 27.9 | 5 | 5 | 55 | 21 | 114 | 1 | 13.5% | 58% |
| 4 | CIN | 24-34 | 22.1 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 18 | 104 | 1 | 10% | 74% |
| 5 | CHI | 10-36 | 17.5 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 | 97 | 1 | 12.1% | 65% |
| 6 | ATL | 20-38 | 15.3 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 92 | 0 | 16.2% | 82% |
| 7 | WAS | 7-40 | 11.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 52 | 1 | 0% | 84% |
| 8 | DEN | 14-28 | 9.1 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 15 | 56 | 0 | 5.7% | 74% |
| 9 | NO | 23-22 | 21.2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 72 | 2 | 12.5% | 79% |
| 10 | NYG | 20-17 | 24.9 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 28 | 153 | 1 | 24% | 88% |
| 12 | KC | 27-30 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 58 | 1 | 15.2% | 89% |
| 13 | TB | 23-26 | 2.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 43 | 0 | 0% | 79% |
| 14 | PHI | 16-22 | 20.7 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 26 | 92 | 1 | 15.2% | 97% |
| 15 | DAL | 14-30 | 8.9 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 10 | 32 | 0 | 14.8% | 95% |
| 16 | ARI | 36-30 | 32.5 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 25 | 152 | 2 | 20.8% | 84% |
| Receptions | 43 |
| Targets | 54 |
| Receiving yards | 171 |
| Carries | 250 |
| Rushing yards | 1,195 |
| Touchdowns | 11 |
| Points per game | 16.11 |
| Yards per target | 3.17 |
| Catch rate | 79.63% |
| Yards per carry | 4.78 |
| Snap share | 77.33% |
| Target share | 11.95% |
| Air-yards share | -2.74% |
| WOPR | 0.16 |
| RACR | -0.497 |
| Average depth of target | -1.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.7 |
| Total YAC | 245 |
| Broken tackles | 7 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 86 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -1.48 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.72 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 14.1% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 64.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 75% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.07 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.07 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 10.41 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 13 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 43 of 46 |
| Target share | 10 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 41 of 46 |
The offense threw it 545 times. He took 10.44% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Xavier Legette | 16.25% |
| Adam Thielen | 11.99% |
| Diontae Johnson | 11.22% |
| David Moore | 11.03% |
| Chuba Hubbard ← | 10.44% |
| Jalen Coker | 8.9% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 10 | 35 | 14.76 | 2.57 | 12.74% |
| Andy Dalton | 5 | 19 | 18.8 | 4.26 | 10.36% |
5 of his 15 games were blowouts, 23.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.4 in those and 19.43 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 13 against TB — 22.4 PPR on 25 touches and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 18-21. His worst was Week 3 against SEA at 2.4, on 4 touches, final score 27-37. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.2; in the 9 decided by more, 9.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 12.2 points per game. He scored 10.74, 12% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 10-24 | 8.9 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 60 | 0 | 6.5% | 36% |
| 2 | NO | 17-20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 34 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 16.1% | 37% |
| 3 | SEA | 27-37 | 2.4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5.3% | 34% |
| 4 | MIN | 13-21 | 7.3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 41 | 0 | 6.5% | 54% |
| 5 | DET | 24-42 | 4.5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 0 | 5.7% | 48% |
| 6 | MIA | 21-42 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 88 | 1 | 2.9% | 77% |
| 8 | HOU | 15-13 | 7.4 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 15 | 28 | 0 | 6.5% | 67% |
| 9 | IND | 13-27 | 10.7 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 16 | 58 | 0 | 16.2% | 65% |
| 10 | CHI | 13-16 | 5.9 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 23 | 0 | 5.9% | 50% |
| 11 | DAL | 10-33 | 8.5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 57 | 0 | 7.7% | 49% |
| 12 | TEN | 10-17 | 20.2 | 5 | 5 | 47 | 14 | 45 | 1 | 20.8% | 64% |
| 13 | TB | 18-21 | 22.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 104 | 2 | 0% | 65% |
| 14 | NO | 6-28 | 11.6 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 87 | 0 | 6.3% | 78% |
| 15 | ATL | 9-7 | 12.3 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 22 | 87 | 0 | 8.7% | 73% |
| 16 | GB | 30-33 | 12.1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 43 | 1 | 3.1% | 64% |
| 17 | JAX | 0-26 | 11.1 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 11 | 45 | 0 | 16.1% | 70% |
| 18 | TB | 0-9 | 11.2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 83 | 0 | 11.1% | 81% |
| Receptions | 39 |
| Targets | 44 |
| Receiving yards | 233 |
| Carries | 238 |
| Rushing yards | 902 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 10.74 |
| Yards per target | 5.3 |
| Catch rate | 88.64% |
| Yards per carry | 3.79 |
| Snap share | 59.53% |
| Target share | 8.55% |
| Air-yards share | -1.08% |
| WOPR | 0.122 |
| RACR | 0.765 |
| Average depth of target | -0.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.9 |
| Total YAC | 269 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 79.3 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.63 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.26 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 2.4% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 59% |
| Goal-line carry share | 68.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.14 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.14 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 6.34 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 33 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 24 of 49 |
| Target share | 26 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 35 of 49 |
The offense threw it 585 times. He took 8.24% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Adam Thielen | 25.66% |
| Jonathan Mingo | 15.92% |
| D.J. Chark | 12.36% |
| Chuba Hubbard ← | 8.24% |
| Miles Sanders | 7.68% |
| Terrace Marshall | 6.18% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 16 | 41 | 11.26 | 5.63 | 8.76% |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 3 | 2.4 | 0.67 | 5.3% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 28.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.34 in those and 12.2 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 14 against SEA — 18.9 PPR on 17 touches and a 15% target share, in a game that finished 30-24. His worst was Week 4 against ARI at 0, on 0 touches, final score 16-26. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.8; in the 7 decided by more, 6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7.1 points per game. He scored 6.41, 5.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 24-26 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 6% |
| 2 | NYG | 16-19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| 3 | NO | 22-14 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 0% | 11% |
| 4 | ARI | 16-26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 6% |
| 6 | LA | 10-24 | 1.7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 4.8% | 9% |
| 7 | TB | 21-3 | 15.3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 63 | 1 | 14.3% | 46% |
| 10 | ATL | 25-15 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 18% |
| 11 | BAL | 3-13 | 4.5 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9.7% | 40% |
| 12 | DEN | 23-10 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 65 | 0 | 0% | 42% |
| 14 | SEA | 30-24 | 18.9 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 14 | 74 | 1 | 15% | 32% |
| 15 | PIT | 16-24 | 9.7 | 3 | 3 | 57 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 15.8% | 63% |
| 16 | DET | 37-23 | 12.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 125 | 0 | 0% | 46% |
| 17 | TB | 24-30 | 9.5 | 3 | 3 | 53 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 9.7% | 53% |
| 18 | NO | 10-7 | 6.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 69 | 0 | 9.1% | 69% |
| Receptions | 14 |
| Targets | 17 |
| Receiving yards | 171 |
| Carries | 95 |
| Rushing yards | 466 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 6.41 |
| Yards per target | 10.06 |
| Catch rate | 82.35% |
| Yards per carry | 4.91 |
| Snap share | 31.71% |
| Target share | 5.6% |
| Air-yards share | -0.54% |
| WOPR | 0.081 |
| RACR | 9.5 |
| Average depth of target | 0.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 10.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 2.1 |
| Total YAC | 142 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 108.6 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.13 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.13 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 2.4% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 21.1% |
| Goal-line carry share | 5.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.13 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.13 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.55 |
The offense threw it 457 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| D.J. Moore | 27.63% |
| Terrace Marshall | 11.01% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 10.07% |
| Shi Smith | 9.6% |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 7.49% |
| Tommy Tremble | 7.49% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 6 | 10 | 10.67 | 13.5 | 8.27% |
| Baker Mayfield | 5 | 3 | 1.46 | 8.33 | 1.94% |
| P.J. Walker | 3 | 4 | 6.13 | 2.75 | 6.37% |
1 of his 14 games were blowouts, 17.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.3 in those and 6.83 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 5 against PHI — 18.4 PPR on 30 touches and a 17.6% target share, in a game that finished 18-21. His worst was Week 12 against MIA at 0.6, on 3 touches, final score 10-33. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.8; in the 9 decided by more, 6.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 10.2 points per game. He scored 8.6, 15.8% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 19-14 | 2.4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.1% | 11% |
| 2 | NO | 26-7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 2.8% | 25% |
| 3 | HOU | 24-9 | 10.9 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 11 | 52 | 0 | 15.2% | 55% |
| 4 | DAL | 28-36 | 9.1 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 13 | 57 | 0 | 5.1% | 47% |
| 5 | PHI | 18-21 | 18.4 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 24 | 101 | 0 | 17.6% | 65% |
| 6 | MIN | 28-34 | 13.5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 61 | 1 | 7.7% | 65% |
| 7 | NYG | 3-25 | 9.6 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 12 | 28 | 0 | 13.2% | 53% |
| 8 | ATL | 19-13 | 14.1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 82 | 1 | 8.3% | 55% |
| 9 | NE | 6-24 | 4.6 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6.9% | 17% |
| 10 | ARI | 34-10 | 8.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 27 | 1 | 0% | 21% |
| 12 | MIA | 10-33 | 0.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 3.2% | 20% |
| 14 | ATL | 21-29 | 9.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 33 | 1 | 0% | 39% |
| 15 | BUF | 14-31 | 5.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 0 | 2.8% | 47% |
| 16 | TB | 6-32 | 0.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 2.3% | 49% |
| 17 | NO | 10-18 | 15.8 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 55 | 1 | 16.7% | 52% |
| 18 | TB | 17-41 | 13.6 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 48 | 1 | 4.8% | 44% |
| Receptions | 25 |
| Targets | 37 |
| Receiving yards | 174 |
| Carries | 172 |
| Rushing yards | 612 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 8.6 |
| Yards per target | 4.7 |
| Catch rate | 67.57% |
| Yards per carry | 3.56 |
| Snap share | 41.56% |
| Target share | 7.04% |
| Air-yards share | -0.27% |
| WOPR | 0.104 |
| RACR | 0.641 |
| Average depth of target | 0.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.6 |
| Total YAC | 160 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0.2% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 75.7 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.64 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.5 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 5.5% |
| End-zone target share | 4.8% |
| Red-zone carry share | 32.9% |
| Goal-line carry share | 25% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.09 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.09 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 3.46 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 41 of 50 |
| Yards per target | 39 of 50 |
| Target share | 35 of 50 |
| Air-yards share | 33 of 50 |
The offense threw it 599 times. He took 6.43% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| D.J. Moore | 28.35% |
| Robbie Chosen | 19.13% |
| Ameer Abdullah | 8.52% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7.13% |
| Chuba Hubbard ← | 6.43% |
| Tommy Tremble | 6.09% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 12 | 35 | 9.49 | 4.94 | 8.89% |
| Cam Newton | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.5 | 2% |
| P.J. Walker | 1 | 0 | 8.7 | — | 0% |
8 of his 16 games were blowouts, 32.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.51 in those and 11.8 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Chuba Hubbard →