Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 19.06 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 8.5, usage worth 17.3.
26 years old · 5 seasons of experience · 2021 draft class
| SLEEPER | 8.6 |
| ESPN | 8.3 |
| YAHOO | 8.3 |
| UNDERDOG | 7.1 |
| CBS | 8.8 |
| FFA | 8 |
| Goes around | Round 1, pick 9 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR4 |
| Bye week | 6 |
| ADP standard deviation | 0.2 picks |
Our board has him at 301 points, 18.4 per game — 109.3 catches, 1,283 yards, 10.1 TDs. That is WR1, 8 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 16.3 points per game to a ceiling of 26.1, with the median at 18.4. Boom rate 42%, bust rate 12%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 8.5 on consensus and our board has him 8. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
The stability play — 90+ catches every year of his career, plays through injuries. Late-1st. The kind of low-variance WR you actually want if you ever go WR-early.
buy · high conviction · 2026-06-05Detroit Lions returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Jared Goff at quarterback, Dan Campbell as head coach, Drew Petzing calling it. The offense projects to 33.9 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 26.2 rushes.
In: Kendrick Law (wr4), Greg Dortch (wr5), Jackson Meeks (wr7), Isiah Pacheco (rb2). Out: Khalif Raymond (wr3), David Montgomery (rb2), Craig Reynolds (rb3).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 25.8%, with a bear case of 25.1% and a bull case of 27.2% and a full range of 24.1% to 27.8%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Amon-Ra St Brown ← | 25.8% |
| Jameson Williams | 15.9% |
| Sam LaPorta | 15.2% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 13.2% |
| Kendrick Law | 7% |
| Greg Dortch | 5.7% |
Key additions: Lions have a new OC in Drew Petzing (coming over from Arizona after the entire coaching staff was let go). Petzing is an interesting hire & did not have success in Arizona. But no doubt this offense can succeed at a high rate under him. Drafted WR Kendrick Law in the 5th round. Signed RB Isiah Pacheco from Chiefs in free agency. Signed C Cade Mays from panthers to 3 year deal. Traded for additional O line man Juice Scruggs in David Montgomery trade. Added TE Tyler Conklin behind TE Sam LaPorta
Key departures: WR Kalif Raymond left to join Ben Johnson with the Bears. Lost T Taylor Decker & G Graham Glasgow. RB David Montgomery was also traded to the Texans.
Notes: Gibbs + Williams + ARSB all dynasty assets. David Montgomery was traded to the Houston Texans & opens the opportunity for Gibbs to be completely featured in this offense. If he can stay healthy, he may be the RB1 in fantasy for years to come. Lions brought in Isiah Pacheco as RB2 from the Chiefs on a 1 year deal. He is not expected to play very much, but could be relevant with Gibbs injury. Khalif Raymond heads to Chicago Bears & Kendrick Law COULD emerge as a solid WR4 or WR3 in the long run. Isaac TeSlaa holds significant value if St Brown or Williams were injured. Williams & St Brown are both excellent assets. Goff remains a interesting aging QB that is a low end QB1 in fantasy with a VERY high weekly ceiling but no mobility upside. A key potential bit to keep an eye on is the status of Sam LaPorta follwing his season ending back injury in 2025. He needs to get back to 100% and prove it before we completely trust him. Tough injury for a TE or any football player.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jared Goff returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.1 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.9 att/g; New OC Drew Petzing — pass rate and tempo may shift.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~26, prior share 29.8%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 28.0%, p25-p75 [25.1%, 30.7%], tails [22.6%, 32.2%]. Closest comps: Amon-Ra St. Brown 2024→2025 (DET: 27.9%→31.7%); Stefon Diggs 2022→2023 (BUF: 27.2%→29.6%); Ja'Marr Chase 2024→2025 (CIN: 27.1%→32.1%). Adjustment: -3% from mixed_decline (conflicting signals)
self-anchored 58% to own 29.8% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 28.0%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: DET rates 26.2 against a league average of 23, 3.2 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -1.6 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -5.6 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +2.9 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -2.7 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Amon-Ra St. Brown study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +5.7% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 2023 | 15.6 | 62% | -6.5% |
| A.J. Brown | 2023 | 17 | 59% | +12.8% |
| DK Metcalf | 2023 | 14.1 | 55% | +6.4% |
| Davante Adams | 2024 | 17.2 | 55% | +34.1% |
| Justin Jefferson | 2024 | 18.7 | 54% | -6.6% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2021, round 4, pick 112 by DET |
| College | USC |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 5′11″ |
| Weight | 197 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.51s |
| Vertical | 38.5″ |
| Broad jump | 127″ |
| 3-cone | 6.88s |
| Shuttle | 4.17s |
| Career PPR per game | 18.1 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 25.4% |
| Bust rate | 10.4% |
| Games missed per season | 0.4 |
| Injury history | Ankle, Abdomen |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.48 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 15 against LA — 41.4 PPR on 18 targets and a 47.4% target share, in a game that finished 34-41. His worst was Week 13 against GB at 0, on 1 targets, final score 24-31. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.9; in the 9 decided by more, 19.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 17.3 points per game. He scored 19.06, 10.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 13-27 | 8.5 | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 | 15.8% | 94% |
| 2 | CHI | 52-21 | 39.2 | 9 | 11 | 115 | 3 | 39.3% | 85% |
| 3 | BAL | 38-30 | 20.7 | 7 | 8 | 77 | 1 | 30.8% | 85% |
| 4 | CLE | 34-10 | 26 | 7 | 7 | 70 | 2 | 28% | 90% |
| 5 | CIN | 37-24 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 100 | 0 | 39.1% | 81% |
| 6 | KC | 17-30 | 13.7 | 9 | 10 | 45 | 0 | 37% | 89% |
| 7 | TB | 24-9 | 20.6 | 6 | 10 | 86 | 1 | 35.7% | 91% |
| 9 | MIN | 24-27 | 18.7 | 9 | 13 | 97 | 0 | 36.1% | 95% |
| 10 | WAS | 44-22 | 16.8 | 5 | 8 | 58 | 1 | 25% | 77% |
| 11 | PHI | 9-16 | 6.2 | 2 | 12 | 42 | 0 | 33.3% | 97% |
| 12 | NYG | 34-27 | 29.9 | 9 | 13 | 149 | 1 | 34.2% | 97% |
| 13 | GB | 24-31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.7% | 6% |
| 14 | DAL | 44-30 | 15.2 | 6 | 9 | 92 | 0 | 29% | 92% |
| 15 | LA | 34-41 | 41.4 | 13 | 18 | 164 | 2 | 47.4% | 95% |
| 16 | PIT | 24-29 | 9.4 | 4 | 9 | 54 | 0 | 17.3% | 97% |
| 17 | MIN | 10-23 | 14.8 | 8 | 13 | 68 | 0 | 44.8% | 83% |
| 18 | CHI | 19-16 | 24.9 | 11 | 15 | 139 | 0 | 41.7% | 95% |
| Receptions | 117 |
| Targets | 172 |
| Receiving yards | 1,401 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 9 |
| Touchdowns | 11 |
| Points per game | 19.06 |
| Yards per target | 8.15 |
| Catch rate | 68.02% |
| Yards per carry | 3 |
| Snap share | 85.24% |
| Target share | 31.66% |
| Air-yards share | 38.66% |
| WOPR | 0.745 |
| RACR | 1.059 |
| Average depth of target | 7.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.1 |
| Total YAC | 570 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 101.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.27 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.03 |
| Red-zone targets | 35 |
| Red-zone target share | 38.9% |
| End-zone target share | 38.5% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 10.14 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 10 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.14 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 4 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 21 of 44 |
| Target share | 3 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 8 of 44 |
The offense threw it 582 times. He took 31.27% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Amon-Ra St. Brown ← | 31.27% |
| Jameson Williams | 18.55% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 17.09% |
| Sam LaPorta | 8.91% |
| Kalif Raymond | 5.45% |
| David Montgomery | 5.27% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 25.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 27.33 in those and 18.9 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 11 against JAX — 38.7 PPR on 11 targets and a 35.5% target share, in a game that finished 52-6. His worst was Week 1 against LA at 4.3, on 6 targets, final score 26-20. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19; in the 8 decided by more, 18.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 14.9 points per game. He scored 18.6, 26.3% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 26-20 | 4.3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 21.4% | 98% |
| 2 | TB | 16-20 | 22.9 | 11 | 18 | 119 | 0 | 34% | 92% |
| 3 | ARI | 20-13 | 20.5 | 7 | 8 | 75 | 1 | 36.4% | 96% |
| 4 | SEA | 42-29 | 20.78 | 6 | 6 | 45 | 2 | 31.6% | 89% |
| 6 | DAL | 47-9 | 13.7 | 4 | 4 | 37 | 1 | 14.8% | 63% |
| 7 | MIN | 31-29 | 25.2 | 8 | 8 | 112 | 1 | 32% | 95% |
| 8 | TEN | 52-14 | 8.7 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 11.1% | 88% |
| 9 | GB | 24-14 | 18.6 | 7 | 7 | 56 | 1 | 35% | 93% |
| 10 | HOU | 26-23 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 60 | 1 | 33.3% | 98% |
| 11 | JAX | 52-6 | 38.7 | 11 | 11 | 161 | 2 | 35.5% | 80% |
| 12 | IND | 24-6 | 12.2 | 6 | 7 | 62 | 0 | 21.2% | 94% |
| 13 | CHI | 23-20 | 12.3 | 5 | 7 | 73 | 0 | 22.6% | 94% |
| 14 | GB | 34-31 | 10.3 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 15% | 85% |
| 15 | BUF | 42-48 | 37.3 | 14 | 18 | 193 | 1 | 33.3% | 91% |
| 16 | CHI | 34-17 | 19 | 6 | 8 | 70 | 1 | 25% | 85% |
| 17 | SF | 40-34 | 20 | 8 | 10 | 60 | 1 | 30.3% | 79% |
| 18 | MIN | 31-9 | 13.7 | 6 | 7 | 77 | 0 | 21.9% | 81% |
| Receptions | 115 |
| Targets | 141 |
| Receiving yards | 1,263 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 6 |
| Touchdowns | 13 |
| Points per game | 18.6 |
| Yards per target | 8.96 |
| Catch rate | 81.56% |
| Yards per carry | 3 |
| Snap share | 88.29% |
| Target share | 26.73% |
| Air-yards share | 31.07% |
| WOPR | 0.619 |
| RACR | 1.248 |
| Average depth of target | 7.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.4 |
| Total YAC | 412 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 129.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 5.67 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.04 |
| Red-zone targets | 32 |
| Red-zone target share | 31.4% |
| End-zone target share | 32.3% |
| Red-zone carry share | 0.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 8.47 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 9 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.53 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.04 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 4 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 16 of 51 |
| Target share | 12 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 24 of 51 |
The offense threw it 550 times. He took 27.17% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Amon-Ra St. Brown ← | 27.17% |
| Jameson Williams | 17.53% |
| Sam LaPorta | 15.99% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 12.14% |
| Tim Patrick | 8.48% |
| David Montgomery | 7.32% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 33.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.67 in those and 18.98 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 10 against LAC — 30.5 PPR on 9 targets and a 28.1% target share, in a game that finished 41-38. His worst was Week 14 against CHI at 5.1, on 8 targets, final score 13-28. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 8 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 21; in the 8 decided by more, 20.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 17.9 points per game. He scored 20.68, 13.6% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 21-20 | 19.1 | 6 | 9 | 71 | 1 | 28.1% | 94% |
| 2 | SEA | 31-37 | 14.2 | 6 | 7 | 102 | 0 | 20.6% | 74% |
| 3 | ATL | 20-6 | 19.6 | 9 | 12 | 102 | 0 | 38.7% | 94% |
| 4 | GB | 34-20 | 16.6 | 5 | 7 | 56 | 1 | 25.9% | 88% |
| 6 | TB | 20-6 | 30.4 | 12 | 15 | 124 | 1 | 36.6% | 91% |
| 7 | BAL | 6-38 | 23.2 | 13 | 19 | 102 | 0 | 38.8% | 97% |
| 8 | LV | 26-14 | 16.8 | 6 | 9 | 108 | 0 | 26.5% | 92% |
| 10 | LAC | 41-38 | 30.5 | 8 | 9 | 156 | 1 | 28.1% | 92% |
| 11 | CHI | 31-26 | 21.7 | 8 | 11 | 77 | 1 | 34.4% | 92% |
| 12 | GB | 22-29 | 18.5 | 9 | 11 | 95 | 0 | 26.2% | 92% |
| 13 | NO | 33-28 | 12.9 | 2 | 6 | 49 | 1 | 24% | 79% |
| 14 | CHI | 13-28 | 5.1 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 23.5% | 88% |
| 15 | DEN | 42-17 | 24.2 | 7 | 9 | 112 | 1 | 28.1% | 92% |
| 16 | MIN | 30-24 | 28.6 | 12 | 14 | 106 | 1 | 35.9% | 99% |
| 17 | DAL | 19-20 | 22.1 | 6 | 8 | 90 | 1 | 25% | 100% |
| 18 | MIN | 30-20 | 27.4 | 7 | 10 | 144 | 1 | 32.3% | 72% |
| Receptions | 119 |
| Targets | 164 |
| Receiving yards | 1,515 |
| Carries | 4 |
| Rushing yards | 24 |
| Touchdowns | 10 |
| Points per game | 20.68 |
| Yards per target | 9.24 |
| Catch rate | 72.56% |
| Yards per carry | 6 |
| Snap share | 89.75% |
| Target share | 29.54% |
| Air-yards share | 32.56% |
| WOPR | 0.671 |
| RACR | 1.216 |
| Average depth of target | 7.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.1 |
| Total YAC | 668 |
| Broken tackles | 10 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 113.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.46 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.08 |
| Red-zone targets | 32 |
| Red-zone target share | 33.7% |
| End-zone target share | 20% |
| Red-zone carry share | 0.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 6.9 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 7 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.1 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 4 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 15 of 51 |
| Target share | 8 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 25 of 51 |
The offense threw it 605 times. He took 28.72% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Amon-Ra St. Brown ← | 28.72% |
| Sam LaPorta | 21.02% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 12.43% |
| Josh Reynolds | 11.21% |
| Kalif Raymond | 7.71% |
| Jameson Williams | 7.36% |
2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 14.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 23.7 in those and 20.95 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 2 against WAS — 39.4 PPR on 12 targets and a 35.3% target share, in a game that finished 36-27. His worst was Week 7 against DAL at 1.4, on 1 targets, final score 6-24. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.7; in the 8 decided by more, 16.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 15.6 points per game. He scored 16.72, 7.3% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 4.93 expected, a gap of 1.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 35-38 | 20.4 | 8 | 12 | 64 | 1 | 32.4% | 88% |
| 2 | WAS | 36-27 | 39.4 | 9 | 12 | 116 | 2 | 35.3% | 85% |
| 3 | MIN | 24-28 | 13.3 | 6 | 9 | 73 | 0 | 24.3% | 73% |
| 5 | NE | 0-29 | 5.8 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 19.4% | 32% |
| 7 | DAL | 6-24 | 1.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | 17% |
| 8 | MIA | 27-31 | 13.9 | 7 | 10 | 69 | 0 | 27% | 95% |
| 9 | GB | 15-9 | 9.5 | 4 | 9 | 55 | 0 | 37.5% | 97% |
| 10 | CHI | 31-30 | 22.1 | 10 | 11 | 119 | 0 | 44% | 81% |
| 11 | NYG | 31-18 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 76 | 0 | 32% | 90% |
| 12 | BUF | 25-28 | 27.9 | 9 | 10 | 122 | 1 | 28.6% | 87% |
| 13 | JAX | 40-14 | 34.6 | 11 | 12 | 114 | 2 | 30.8% | 87% |
| 14 | MIN | 34-23 | 13.4 | 6 | 9 | 68 | 0 | 25% | 87% |
| 15 | NYJ | 20-17 | 15.2 | 7 | 10 | 76 | 0 | 27.8% | 84% |
| 16 | CAR | 23-37 | 14.6 | 7 | 13 | 76 | 0 | 31.7% | 83% |
| 17 | CHI | 41-10 | 10.2 | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 | 17.2% | 70% |
| 18 | GB | 20-16 | 10.9 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 0 | 27.3% | 85% |
| Receptions | 106 |
| Targets | 146 |
| Receiving yards | 1,161 |
| Carries | 9 |
| Rushing yards | 95 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 16.72 |
| Yards per target | 7.95 |
| Catch rate | 72.6% |
| Yards per carry | 10.56 |
| Snap share | 77.56% |
| Target share | 27.77% |
| Air-yards share | 27.25% |
| WOPR | 0.608 |
| RACR | 1.164 |
| Average depth of target | 6.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.1 |
| Total YAC | 516 |
| Broken tackles | 7 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 106.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.58 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.3 |
| Red-zone targets | 22 |
| Red-zone target share | 25.3% |
| End-zone target share | 17.9% |
| Red-zone carry share | 4.2% |
| Goal-line carry share | 2.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.93 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.07 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.6 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 10 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 28 of 51 |
| Target share | 11 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 33 of 51 |
The offense threw it 587 times. He took 26.21% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Amon-Ra St. Brown ← | 26.21% |
| D'Andre Swift | 12.57% |
| Kalif Raymond | 11.49% |
| Josh Reynolds | 10.59% |
| D.J. Chark | 9.34% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 7.72% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 19.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13 in those and 16.65 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 17 against SEA — 35.4 PPR on 11 targets and a 29.7% target share, in a game that finished 29-51. His worst was Week 3 against BAL at 1.2, on 1 targets, final score 17-19. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.1; in the 7 decided by more, 15.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 12.9 points per game. He scored 14.21, 10.2% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 33-41 | 4.3 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 7.1% | 64% |
| 2 | GB | 17-35 | 4.8 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 14.3% | 60% |
| 3 | BAL | 17-19 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3.6% | 43% |
| 4 | CHI | 14-24 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 70 | 0 | 21.6% | 72% |
| 5 | MIN | 17-19 | 13.5 | 7 | 8 | 65 | 0 | 25.8% | 69% |
| 6 | CIN | 11-34 | 9.6 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 17.9% | 78% |
| 8 | PHI | 6-44 | 7.6 | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 15.6% | 73% |
| 10 | PIT | 16-16 | 10.1 | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 25% | 61% |
| 11 | CLE | 10-13 | 5.8 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 17.4% | 85% |
| 12 | CHI | 14-16 | 6.3 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 16% | 98% |
| 13 | MIN | 29-27 | 24.8 | 10 | 12 | 86 | 1 | 31.6% | 96% |
| 14 | DEN | 10-38 | 15.3 | 8 | 12 | 73 | 0 | 31.6% | 75% |
| 15 | ARI | 30-12 | 23.5 | 8 | 11 | 90 | 1 | 42.3% | 69% |
| 16 | ATL | 16-20 | 26 | 9 | 11 | 91 | 1 | 31.4% | 88% |
| 17 | SEA | 29-51 | 35.4 | 8 | 11 | 111 | 2 | 29.7% | 84% |
| 18 | GB | 37-30 | 26.1 | 8 | 10 | 109 | 1 | 34.5% | 95% |
| Receptions | 90 |
| Targets | 119 |
| Receiving yards | 912 |
| Carries | 7 |
| Rushing yards | 61 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 14.21 |
| Yards per target | 7.66 |
| Catch rate | 75.63% |
| Yards per carry | 8.71 |
| Snap share | 75.63% |
| Target share | 22.84% |
| Air-yards share | 21.98% |
| WOPR | 0.496 |
| RACR | 1.476 |
| Average depth of target | 7.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.4 |
| Total YAC | 424 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 104 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.33 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.32 |
| Red-zone targets | 15 |
| Red-zone target share | 22.7% |
| End-zone target share | 15.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.23 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.77 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 22 of 48 |
| Yards per target | 32 of 48 |
| Target share | 24 of 48 |
| Air-yards share | 40 of 48 |
The offense threw it 590 times. He took 21.48% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Amon-Ra St. Brown ← | 21.48% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 15.16% |
| D'Andre Swift | 14.08% |
| Kalif Raymond | 12.82% |
| Josh Reynolds | 6.5% |
| Jamaal Williams | 5.05% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 13 | 93 | 12.32 | 7.44 | 22.07% |
| Tim Boyle | 3 | 26 | 22.4 | 8.46 | 26.17% |
6 of his 16 games were blowouts, 42.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.03 in those and 13.12 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Amon-Ra St. Brown →