Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 12.13 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 51.5, usage worth 10.7.
27 years old · 5 seasons of experience · 2021 draft class
| SLEEPER | 47.8 |
| ESPN | 60.7 |
| YAHOO | 44.3 |
| UNDERDOG | 38.3 |
| CBS | 53.2 |
| FFA | 46 |
| Goes around | Round 5, pick 4 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR21 |
| Bye week | 10 |
| ADP standard deviation | 7.1 picks |
Our board has him at 215.4 points, 13.1 per game — 74.6 catches, 1,044 yards, 5.6 TDs. That is WR3, 46 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 10.4 points per game to a ceiling of 17.8, with the median at 13.1. Boom rate 36%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 51.5 on consensus and our board has him 46. We rank him 5.5 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
acknowledged as legitimately talented, just not loved in this specific spot — Denver spreads the ball to far more players per game than a concentrated offense would, and Sutton remains real target competition, not name-only. Multi-year pattern of being talked about as a breakout candidate and then simply not doing much with expanded opportunity, including a stretch last year when the presumed unlock (a Tyreek Hill injury) actually happened and he still didn't take over.
hold · medium conviction · 2026-08Denver Broncos returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, oc. Bo Nix at quarterback, Sean Payton as head coach, Davis Webb calling it. The offense projects to 35 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 26.4 rushes.
In: Jaylen Waddle (wr1), Lil'Jordan Humphrey (wr6), Dane Key (wr7), Jonah Coleman (rb3).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 9.8%, with a bear case of 8.5% and a bull case of 11.4% and a full range of 6% to 13.3%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Courtland Sutton | 19.7% |
| Troy Franklin | 10.9% |
| Jaylen Waddle ← | 9.8% |
| RJ Harvey | 9% |
| Evan Engram | 8.3% |
| Pat Bryant | 7.6% |
What the offense looks like: The Jaylen Waddle trade is probably bad for Waddle & Suttons value. It is likely worse for Sutton than Waddle though. The RB room is also nearly impossible to predict. What we do know: if a RB is featured on this offense they are a weekly RB1, but JK Dobbins, Harvey, and now Coleman will be difficult to trust when all three are healthy. WR 3 - WR 6 on Denver all are promising young WR and could be potential trade targets for WR needy teams early in 2026.
Key additions: A key add is Broncos QB coach Davis Webb was promoted to OC & will handle play calling in 2026. Webb was a potential head coach candidate & Denver maintains a great weapon on their coaching staff. Broncos traded 1st round pick for WR Jaylen Waddle from dolphins. He will likely function as teams WR1. Broncos also drafted RB Jonah Coleman in the 4th round from washington & TE Justin Joly in the 5th round.
Key departures: No key departures on offense
Notes: Bo Nix will be 100% healthy by camp following foot injury in NFL playoffs. Broncos traded their 2026 1st round pick for Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle. This will significantly reduce Sutton's role as the alpha in the offense. Pat Bryant & Troy Franklin will likely have trade interest but if they stay on the team will have reduced roles. Broncos backfield is incredibly difficult to project & will need to be monitored all summer. Denver extended JK Dobbins & Drafted Jonah Coleman in the 5th round. Dobbins expected to be 1A and Harvey 1B, with Coleman as reserve, but Sean Payton as HC can do whatever he wants. Broncos drafted TE Justin Joly in the 5th round who has a small chance to be relevant because Evan Engram is legit trash
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Bo Nix returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (36 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 35 att/g; New OC Davis Webb — pass rate and tempo may shift.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~26, prior share 21.0%, team change, OC change. Distribution: median 13.4%, p25-p75 [9.7%, 17.8%], tails [2.6%, 23.3%]. Closest comps: Corey Davis 2020→2021 (TEN→NYJ: 21.7%→18.5%); Brandin Cooks 2022→2023 (HOU→DAL: 23.4%→14.3%); Jakobi Meyers 2022→2023 (NE→LV: 24.0%→20.6%). Adjustment: flat from opportunity_breakout (volume must hold)
arrival self-anchored 41% to own 21.0% role (3yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: DEN rates 22.9 against a league average of 23, 0.1 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.6 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -4.8 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +0.8 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -9.2 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Jaylen Waddle study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +7.1% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 2024 | 12.7 | 73% | -4.3% |
| Michael Pittman | 2024 | 10.4 | 73% | +14.8% |
| Terry McLaurin | 2023 | 12 | 72% | +39.7% |
| Marquise Brown | 2023 | 10.4 | 72% | -4.9% |
| Mike Evans | 2024 | 17.2 | 68% | -16.5% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2021, round 1, pick 6 by MIA |
| College | Alabama |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Career PPR per game | 13.1 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 19% |
| Bust rate | 22.2% |
| Games missed per season | 0.4 |
| Injury history | Ankle, Knee |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.13 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 5 against CAR — 23 PPR on 9 targets and a 26.5% target share, in a game that finished 24-27. His worst was Week 17 against TB at 0.7, on 1 targets, final score 20-17. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.5; in the 9 decided by more, 12.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 10.7 points per game. He scored 12.13, 13.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 8-33 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 16.1% | 65% |
| 2 | NE | 27-33 | 17.8 | 5 | 6 | 68 | 1 | 18.8% | 82% |
| 3 | BUF | 21-31 | 14.9 | 5 | 6 | 39 | 1 | 18.2% | 87% |
| 4 | NYJ | 27-21 | 7.8 | 3 | 6 | 48 | 0 | 24% | 90% |
| 5 | CAR | 24-27 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 110 | 1 | 26.5% | 89% |
| 6 | LAC | 27-29 | 15.82 | 6 | 8 | 95 | 0 | 26.7% | 78% |
| 7 | CLE | 6-31 | 2.5 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 13.3% | 76% |
| 8 | ATL | 34-10 | 20.9 | 5 | 6 | 99 | 1 | 22.2% | 78% |
| 9 | BAL | 6-28 | 14.2 | 6 | 9 | 82 | 0 | 24.3% | 80% |
| 10 | BUF | 30-13 | 19.4 | 5 | 7 | 84 | 1 | 33.3% | 83% |
| 11 | WAS | 16-13 | 8.2 | 3 | 7 | 52 | 0 | 35% | 84% |
| 13 | NO | 21-17 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 30% | 92% |
| 14 | NYJ | 34-10 | 18.1 | 5 | 7 | 50 | 1 | 33.3% | 78% |
| 15 | PIT | 15-28 | 4.6 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 15.4% | 84% |
| 16 | CIN | 21-45 | 12.2 | 5 | 9 | 72 | 0 | 31% | 71% |
| 17 | TB | 20-17 | 0.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.5% | 25% |
| Receptions | 64 |
| Targets | 100 |
| Receiving yards | 910 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 28 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 12.13 |
| Yards per target | 9.1 |
| Catch rate | 64% |
| Yards per carry | 14 |
| Snap share | 77.63% |
| Target share | 23.29% |
| Air-yards share | 42.71% |
| WOPR | 0.647 |
| RACR | 0.772 |
| Average depth of target | 13.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.7 |
| Total YAC | 228 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 84.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.15 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.12 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.2% |
| End-zone target share | 17.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.21 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.21 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 24 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 10 of 44 |
| Target share | 19 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 3 of 44 |
The offense threw it 479 times. He took 22.22% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jaylen Waddle ← | 22.22% |
| De'Von Achane | 18.89% |
| Malik Washington | 14.44% |
| Darren Waller | 7.56% |
| Greg Dulcich | 7.33% |
| Tyreek Hill | 6.44% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 14 | 90 | 12.94 | 9.31 | 24.08% |
| Quinn Ewers | 2 | 10 | 6.45 | 7.2 | 17.75% |
7 of his 16 games were blowouts, 48.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.47 in those and 11.47 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 12 against NE — 28.4 PPR on 9 targets and a 22.5% target share, in a game that finished 34-15. His worst was Week 15 against HOU at 0, on 2 targets, final score 12-20. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.1; in the 7 decided by more, 11. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 9.8 points per game. He scored 9.97, 1.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.24 expected, a gap of -1.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 20-17 | 16.2 | 5 | 5 | 109 | 0 | 13.9% | 72% |
| 2 | BUF | 10-31 | 8.5 | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 10.8% | 72% |
| 3 | SEA | 3-24 | 6.6 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 16.1% | 84% |
| 4 | TEN | 12-31 | 7.6 | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 28.6% | 72% |
| 5 | NE | 15-10 | 8.6 | 4 | 8 | 46 | 0 | 25.8% | 78% |
| 7 | IND | 10-16 | 2.1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 9.1% | 86% |
| 8 | ARI | 27-28 | 8.5 | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 | 15.8% | 86% |
| 9 | BUF | 27-30 | 7.6 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 1 | 7.4% | 85% |
| 10 | LA | 23-15 | 8.6 | 3 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 21.4% | 89% |
| 11 | LV | 34-19 | 5.7 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 8.6% | 78% |
| 12 | NE | 34-15 | 28.4 | 8 | 9 | 144 | 1 | 22.5% | 76% |
| 13 | GB | 17-30 | 11.3 | 4 | 4 | 53 | 0 | 8.7% | 92% |
| 14 | NYJ | 32-26 | 20.9 | 9 | 12 | 99 | 0 | 26.7% | 82% |
| 15 | HOU | 12-20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.1% | 38% |
| 18 | NYJ | 20-32 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 44 | 0 | 24.3% | 90% |
| Receptions | 58 |
| Targets | 83 |
| Receiving yards | 744 |
| Carries | 4 |
| Rushing yards | 12 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 9.97 |
| Yards per target | 8.96 |
| Catch rate | 69.88% |
| Yards per carry | 3 |
| Snap share | 78.67% |
| Target share | 16.32% |
| Air-yards share | 24.42% |
| WOPR | 0.417 |
| RACR | 0.942 |
| Average depth of target | 10 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.8 |
| Total YAC | 236 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 90.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.68 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.01 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.9% |
| End-zone target share | 9.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.24 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.24 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.18 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 43 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 15 of 51 |
| Target share | 47 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 40 of 51 |
The offense threw it 591 times. He took 14.93% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyreek Hill | 21.94% |
| Jonnu Smith | 19.96% |
| De'Von Achane | 15.65% |
| Jaylen Waddle ← | 14.93% |
| Malik Washington | 6.47% |
| Raheem Mostert | 4.14% |
He caught passes from 4 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 10 | 53 | 11.57 | 10.96 | 14.09% |
| Tyler Huntley | 3 | 23 | 8.4 | 5.48 | 26.23% |
| Skylar Thompson | 1 | 5 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 16.1% |
| Tim Boyle | 1 | 2 | 2.1 | 5.5 | 9.1% |
4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 34.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.77 in those and 9.06 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 15 against NYJ — 28.2 PPR on 9 targets and a 34.6% target share, in a game that finished 30-0. His worst was Week 16 against DAL at 6.2, on 4 targets, final score 22-20. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.4; in the 8 decided by more, 17.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 12.5 points per game. He scored 14.19, 9.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 3.02 expected, a gap of -1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 36-34 | 11.8 | 4 | 5 | 78 | 0 | 11.4% | 64% |
| 2 | NE | 24-17 | 12.4 | 4 | 6 | 86 | 0 | 20.7% | 73% |
| 4 | BUF | 20-48 | 8.6 | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 14.7% | 75% |
| 5 | NYG | 31-16 | 14.5 | 5 | 10 | 35 | 1 | 35.7% | 81% |
| 6 | CAR | 42-21 | 18.1 | 7 | 9 | 51 | 1 | 30% | 69% |
| 7 | PHI | 17-31 | 12.3 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 0 | 18.8% | 45% |
| 8 | NE | 31-17 | 25.1 | 7 | 12 | 121 | 1 | 27.3% | 75% |
| 9 | KC | 14-21 | 8.4 | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 | 18.2% | 54% |
| 11 | LV | 20-13 | 9.5 | 4 | 8 | 55 | 0 | 22.2% | 83% |
| 12 | NYJ | 34-13 | 19.4 | 8 | 8 | 114 | 0 | 28.6% | 66% |
| 13 | WAS | 45-15 | 10.2 | 5 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 32% | 61% |
| 14 | TEN | 27-28 | 13.9 | 6 | 8 | 79 | 0 | 24.2% | 82% |
| 15 | NYJ | 30-0 | 28.2 | 8 | 9 | 142 | 1 | 34.6% | 67% |
| 16 | DAL | 22-20 | 6.2 | 1 | 4 | 50 | 0 | 11.1% | 43% |
| Receptions | 72 |
| Targets | 104 |
| Receiving yards | 1,014 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 12 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 14.19 |
| Yards per target | 9.75 |
| Catch rate | 69.23% |
| Yards per carry | 4 |
| Snap share | 67% |
| Target share | 23.54% |
| Air-yards share | 33.97% |
| WOPR | 0.591 |
| RACR | 1.039 |
| Average depth of target | 10.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.2 |
| Total YAC | 421 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 101.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.28 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.05 |
| Red-zone targets | 9 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.5% |
| End-zone target share | 20% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.02 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.02 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 20 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 9 of 51 |
| Target share | 25 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 20 of 51 |
The offense threw it 566 times. He took 19.51% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyreek Hill | 32.08% |
| Jaylen Waddle ← | 19.51% |
| Durham Smythe | 8.07% |
| Cedrick Wilson | 7.13% |
| De'Von Achane | 6.94% |
| Braxton Berrios | 6.19% |
5 of his 14 games were blowouts, 42.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.9 in those and 10.37 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 2 against BAL — 40.1 PPR on 19 targets and a 38% target share, in a game that finished 42-38. His worst was Week 13 against SF at 1.9, on 5 targets, final score 17-33. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.6; in the 6 decided by more, 9.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 11.8 points per game. He scored 15.25, 26.2% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 2.16 expected, a gap of 1.8.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 20-7 | 17.7 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 1 | 16.1% | 67% |
| 2 | BAL | 42-38 | 40.1 | 11 | 19 | 171 | 2 | 38% | 80% |
| 3 | BUF | 21-19 | 15.1 | 4 | 6 | 102 | 0 | 30% | 74% |
| 4 | CIN | 15-27 | 5.9 | 2 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 13.9% | 86% |
| 5 | NYJ | 17-40 | 5.3 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 12.5% | 76% |
| 6 | MIN | 16-24 | 16.9 | 6 | 10 | 129 | 0 | 22.2% | 79% |
| 7 | PIT | 16-10 | 12.8 | 4 | 5 | 88 | 0 | 14.3% | 79% |
| 8 | DET | 31-27 | 30.6 | 8 | 9 | 106 | 2 | 26.5% | 76% |
| 9 | CHI | 35-32 | 19.5 | 5 | 7 | 85 | 1 | 24.1% | 72% |
| 10 | CLE | 39-17 | 10.6 | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 | 15.2% | 74% |
| 12 | HOU | 30-15 | 13.5 | 5 | 10 | 85 | 0 | 26.3% | 62% |
| 13 | SF | 17-33 | 1.9 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 14.7% | 52% |
| 14 | LAC | 17-23 | 5.1 | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 16.7% | 84% |
| 15 | BUF | 29-32 | 20.4 | 3 | 7 | 114 | 1 | 23.3% | 69% |
| 16 | GB | 20-26 | 25.3 | 5 | 6 | 143 | 1 | 25% | 74% |
| 17 | NE | 21-23 | 8.2 | 3 | 5 | 52 | 0 | 12.5% | 76% |
| 18 | NYJ | 11-6 | 10.3 | 5 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 18.5% | 75% |
| Receptions | 75 |
| Targets | 117 |
| Receiving yards | 1,356 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 26 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 15.25 |
| Yards per target | 11.59 |
| Catch rate | 64.1% |
| Yards per carry | 8.67 |
| Snap share | 73.82% |
| Target share | 20.58% |
| Air-yards share | 27.09% |
| WOPR | 0.498 |
| RACR | 1.049 |
| Average depth of target | 11.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.3 |
| Total YAC | 510 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 119.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.47 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.12 |
| Red-zone targets | 9 |
| Red-zone target share | 13.2% |
| End-zone target share | 17.9% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.16 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.84 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.12 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 13 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 1 of 51 |
| Target share | 35 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 34 of 51 |
The offense threw it 584 times. He took 21.71% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyreek Hill | 31.54% |
| Jaylen Waddle ← | 21.71% |
| Mike Gesicki | 9.65% |
| Trent Sherfield | 9.46% |
| Raheem Mostert | 7.79% |
| Jeffery Wilson | 4.45% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 12 | 88 | 17.72 | 12.15 | 22.52% |
| Skylar Thompson | 3 | 14 | 7.93 | 8.5 | 14.5% |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 2 | 15 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 18.05% |
2 of his 17 games were blowouts, 6.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.95 in those and 18.57 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 6 against JAX — 29 PPR on 13 targets and a 27.7% target share, in a game that finished 20-23. His worst was Week 5 against TB at 5.3, on 6 targets, final score 17-45. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19.2; in the 10 decided by more, 13.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 15.2 points per game. He scored 15.49, 2.1% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 4.03 expected, a gap of 2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 17-16 | 16.1 | 4 | 5 | 61 | 1 | 18.5% | 80% |
| 2 | BUF | 0-35 | 10.8 | 6 | 8 | 48 | 0 | 19% | 64% |
| 3 | LV | 28-31 | 17.8 | 12 | 13 | 58 | 0 | 27.7% | 88% |
| 4 | IND | 17-27 | 6.3 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 13.3% | 79% |
| 5 | TB | 17-45 | 5.3 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 0 | 15.4% | 80% |
| 6 | JAX | 20-23 | 29 | 10 | 13 | 70 | 2 | 27.7% | 93% |
| 7 | ATL | 28-30 | 15.3 | 7 | 8 | 83 | 0 | 20% | 84% |
| 8 | BUF | 11-26 | 6.9 | 4 | 11 | 29 | 0 | 30.6% | 94% |
| 9 | HOU | 17-9 | 16.3 | 8 | 10 | 83 | 0 | 25% | 87% |
| 10 | BAL | 22-10 | 10.1 | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 17.6% | 88% |
| 11 | NYJ | 24-17 | 20.6 | 8 | 9 | 65 | 1 | 26.5% | 76% |
| 12 | CAR | 33-10 | 28.7 | 9 | 10 | 137 | 1 | 32.3% | 74% |
| 13 | NYG | 20-9 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 90 | 0 | 26.8% | 77% |
| 16 | NO | 20-3 | 25.2 | 10 | 12 | 92 | 1 | 46.2% | 89% |
| 17 | TEN | 3-34 | 7.7 | 3 | 7 | 47 | 0 | 18.4% | 92% |
| 18 | NE | 33-24 | 13.7 | 5 | 7 | 27 | 1 | 33.3% | 90% |
| Receptions | 104 |
| Targets | 140 |
| Receiving yards | 1,015 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 3 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 15.49 |
| Yards per target | 7.25 |
| Catch rate | 74.29% |
| Yards per carry | 1.5 |
| Snap share | 83.44% |
| Target share | 24.89% |
| Air-yards share | 25.46% |
| WOPR | 0.551 |
| RACR | 1.187 |
| Average depth of target | 7.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.5 |
| Total YAC | 439 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 87.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.26 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.06 |
| Red-zone targets | 15 |
| Red-zone target share | 19% |
| End-zone target share | 10.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 3.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.03 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.97 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.43 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 13 of 48 |
| Yards per target | 37 of 48 |
| Target share | 15 of 48 |
| Air-yards share | 33 of 48 |
The offense threw it 615 times. He took 23.41% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jaylen Waddle ← | 23.41% |
| Mike Gesicki | 18.73% |
| DeVante Parker | 12.21% |
| Myles Gaskin | 10.54% |
| Durham Smythe | 6.86% |
| Albert Wilson | 6.52% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 10 | 93 | 18.12 | 7.54 | 28.03% |
| Jacoby Brissett | 6 | 47 | 11.1 | 6.68 | 19.67% |
5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 31.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.54 in those and 19.18 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Jaylen Waddle →